Preview and Projections for the Weekend of April 16, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 4.15.04

Just two short weeks after the battle for the male moviegoers between Hellboy and Walking Tall, two movies about revenge create a new box office challenge, as they also vie for the same target audience. The continuation of Quentin Tarantino’s tribute to chophouse flicks, Kill Bill Vol. 2, takes on a new movie version of the Marvel comic book vigilante, The Punisher. This time around, the comic book movie will likely lose out, since the many fans of the first half of Tarantino’s fourth movie will be back to see how it ends, allowing it to make more than the previous movie in its opening weekend. Opening in fewer theatres, The Punisher will have to settle for second place, although it might take a chunk out of Tarantino’s opening weekend in the bargain. Nia Vardalos’ second movie, Connie and Carla, teams her with About a Boy’s Toni Collette for a cross-gender, cross-country comedy that may appeal to older women and the two or three people who enjoyed Boat Trip, but few others. With a moderate release in 1,000 theatres, it probably won’t make enough to get into the Top 10, and one shouldn’t expect the astounding legs of her Big Fat Greek Wedding. Jennifer Garner's 13 Going on 30 will get sneak previews in over 1,000 theatres nationwide this Saturday night.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Kill Bill Vol. 2	$26.0	N/A	2,971*	$8,751	1
2	New	The Punisher	$15.0	N/A	2,649	$5,663	1
3	1	The Passion of the Christ	$8.0	-48%	2,848	$2,807	8
4	4	Johnson Family Vacation	$5.8	-40%	1,326	$4,404	2
5	3	The Alamo	$5.5	-40%	2,609	$2,108	2
6	2	Hellboy	$5.2	-52%	2,897	$1,763	3
7	6	Home on the Range	$5.0	-38%	2,735	$1,754	3
8	7	Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed	$4.4	-45%	2,810	$1,630	5
9	5	Walking Tall	$4.0	-49%	2,444	$1,654	3
10	9	Ella Enchanted	$4.0	-38%	1,939	$2,071	2
			Est. Weekend Total $82.90	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -44%		Est. Average PTA $3,259

*Seems there was a bit of confusion with the Kill Bill 2 theatre counts this week, and it will be getting fewer theatres than Kill Bill Vol. 1

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CONNIE AND CARLA (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Nia Vardalos, Toni Collette, Stephen Spinella, Dash Mihok, David Duchovny
Directed by: Michael Lembeck (The Santa Clause 2)
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “When you follow your dream, there’s no telling what you’ll become.”

In a twist on the classic comedy Some Like It Hot, Nia Vardalos and Toni Collette play Connie and Carla, struggling dinner theatre performers in Chicago who are on the run after witnessing a mob hit. They end up in Los Angeles, where their talent is best suited for pretending to be drag queens, making them hits on the cabaret circuit. That is, until Connie falls for a guy (The X-Files’ David Duchovny) who does not know that she’s really a woman.

For the first film since her blockbuster indie romantic comedy My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos writes and stars in a comedy that puts a different spin on the cross-gender comedy that has been a constant staple at the movies in the last few years. My Big Fat Greek Wedding was released almost exactly two years ago in limited release, and it didn’t make much waves outside of the Greek community until a few months later, when its trailer was attached to producer Tom Hanks’ Road to Perdition. That summer, the movie exploded, expanding nationwide and getting a new audience of older adults who drove it to new heights with positive word-of-mouth. It also got Vardalos an Oscar nomination for the movie’s hilarious script. After the success of My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Vardalos and most of the cast jumped into a CBS sitcom spin-off, which was quickly cancelled after being poorly received. The success of her second movie is important, because it may be the only thing that keeps Vardalos from being seen as a one-hit wonder.

Joining her for this venture is actress Toni Collette, first noticed as Haley Joel Osment’s mother in M. Night Shyamalan’s The Sixth Sense. In recent years, her most prominent role was in Hugh Grant’s About a Boy, while her last movie, Japanese Story, got a few critical nods despite being seen by few people. After a lengthy stint on the hit FOX mystery drama “The X-Files”, David Duchovny appeared in a few motion pictures, the only one doing well being the big screen adaptation of the television show, The X-Files: Fight the Future. Both Playing God and Evolution bombed. Saying that Duchovny is box office poison is being kind and appearing as Nia Vardalos’ gay love interest cannot be good for this movie. On the other hand, Duchovny might get a bit more respect when his directorial debut, the prison drama The House of D, is released this summer.

The biggest problem is that Connie and Carla’s premise isn’t as universal as the ethnic family humor of Vardalos’ first movie. Although cross-gender comedies have been fairly common since Some Like It Hot, there have been few standouts like 1994’s award-winning The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, featuring no less than Memento’s Guy Pearce and Hugo “Elron”/”Mr. Smith” Weaving in drag. Most of the others have been juvenile fare like To Wong Foo, Sorority Boys and Juwanna Man. Connie and Carla’s twist premise makes it more like Blake Edwards’ 1982 comedy, Victor Victoria, starring Julie Andrews as a woman playing a female impersonator. That movie didn’t do that badly, but at this point in her career, Vardalos doesn’t have quite the same reputation as Andrews or Edwards, who was at the height of his popularity back then.

The appeal of Broadway show tunes might help get older audiences, but campy musical numbers don’t play well in mainstream America, as seen by the limited theatrical success of popular movies like Camp and Hedwig and the Angry Inch. They did well in bigger cities, but not so much in the rest of the country. And then of course, you have the Cuba Gooding comedy, Boat Trip, about his misadventures on a gay cruise. That bombed in the same spring 2003 weekend where another kitchy comedy, Gwyneth Paltrow’s A View From the Top, wasn’t received well.

A few years back, April was a legendary dumping ground for bad movies, and Connie and Carla gives the impression that those days are back. Universal must know that they have the potential of a huge dog, since they decided to release it in a modest 1,000 theatres despite the success of the star’s previous movie. The promotion for the movie has been severely limited compared to Universal’s normal push. This lack of faith in the movie after months of delays does not bode well for the movie’s success.

Attempting to act as counter-programming in a crowded marketplace, it’s going to be hard for Connie and Carla to make a mark, even among the neglected older female market that rarely goes to the movies. It will be lucky to make $3 million this weekend, but even if the movie is good, it might have a hard time finding an audience with plenty of other movies coming out in the next few weeks.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
My Big Fat Greek Wedding	8/2/02	657	$37.17	$3.00	$4,569	$185.24
Evolution	6/8/01	2,611		$13.41	$5,135	$38.31
Playing God	10/17/97	1,479		$1.94	$1,312	$4.06
Camp	7/25/03	3		$0.05	$18,098	$1.63
Hedwig and the Angry Inch	8/3/01	46	$0.45	$0.29	$6,221	$3.03
A View From the Top	3/21/03	2,508		$7.01	$2,795	$15.61
Boat Trip	3/21/03	1,714		$3.82	$2,226	$8.59
Juwanna Mann	6/21/02	1,325		$5.47	$4,128	$13.57
Sorority Boys	3/22/02	1,801		$4.13	$2,292	$10.20
To Wong Foo...	9/8/95	1,294		$9.02	$6,971	$36.47

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KILL BILL VOLUME 2 (Miramax Films)
Starring: Uma Thurman, David Carradine, Michael Madsen, Sonny Chiba, Vivica A. Fox, Daryl Hannah, Lucy Liu, LaTanya Richardson, Michael Jai White, Woo-ping Yuen
Directed by: Quentin Tarantino (Pulp Fiction, Jackie Brown, Reservoir Dogs, Kill Bill Volume 1)
Rated R
Tagline: “Revenge is a dish best served cold.”

Uma Thurman is back as “The Bride” in the second half of Quentin Tarantino’s action-revenge drama, Kill Bill. This time, she goes after the remainder of her former boss’ “Viper” gang, including Elle Driver (Daryl Hannah) and Budd (Michael Madsen) before taking on Bill (David Carradine) himself.

Did you ever get the feeling of déjà vu? After all, it was only six months ago that I wrote about Kill Bill Vol. 1. It did better than most expected, grossing over $70 million, more than the actual budget for the movie, so the money from Vol. 2 will be cake for Quentin Tarantino and Miramax Films. Vol. 2 is not a sequel per se, since it’s the continuation of the story like The Matrix Revolutions and the Lord of the Rings trilogy. The original plan was to release one three-hour movie, but Tarantino wisely split it in half, knowing that people who enjoyed the first half won’t mind shelling out ten dollars more to see the rest, essentially guaranteeing them twice the money. The second half was supposed to come out in February, but Miramax decided to push it back to April, possibly to finish it up or get the DVD ready. (update: The Kill Bill Volume 1 DVD sold 2 million units in its very first day! Likely those who want to see it again before catching the second part on Friday!)

The first half of Kill Bill received critical and commercial success with over 40% of the IMDB user ratings giving the movie a 10 out of 10. Reviews for the first half were also predominantly positive, and the second half is receiving even more gushing reviews from Ebert, Roeper and other critics. Conveniently, the first half of the movie is released on DVD this Tuesday, so anyone who missed it will be able to get up to speed before seeing the continuation over the weekend. It’s a brilliant marketing move by Miramax as they have commercials pulling double duty by promoting both the DVD and the theatrical release of the conclusion. The potential for Kill Bill Vol. 2’s success might be compared to frequent Tarantino collaborator, Robert Rodriguez’s Once Upon a Time In Mexico, the conclusion to his El Mariachi trilogy, which made as much opening weekend as the previous installment did in its entire theatrical run.

There’s little reason to recap Uma or Quentin’s career, as it hasn’t changed much since the first movie, except that now they have a hit movie under their belt, which is all that one needs to know. In this installment, Thurman takes on an assassin played by actress Daryl Hannah, who has been appearing in popular movies like Splash and Roxanne since the 80’s, but has been laying low in recent years. She also will fight Michael Madsen, a third string actor who appeared in Tarantino’s first movie, 1992’s Reservoir Dogs. As in his past movies, Tarantino has brought back an actor from yesteryear to give their career a boost and for Kill Bill, that honor goes to David Carradine, star of the hit 70’s show “Kung Fu”, whose career has gotten a sudden kick in the pants as the title character. All three will have more screen time than they did in the first half of the movie.

Despite the extra time Miramax gave itself to promote the movie, the new trailer was only released a week ago and the commercials didn’t show up until recently. The first teaser/trailer was none too impressive, featuring Uma in a car talking to the camera about her revenge. The newest commercials are better, giving fans a taste of some of the action they might see in the conclusion of the story with the stylish flair people have come to expect from Tarantino. In what might be some of the oddest promotion for the movie, Quentin Tarantino will be appearing on Tuesday night as a guest judge on “American Idol”, which is an odd choice since the audience for the show doesn’t seem like the type that would be into the gore and violence of Tarantino’s latest movie. Then again, those who've seen the first half might be surprised to find that part 2 is more of a love story. (Update: Having seen the movie myself and loved it much more than the first half, it seems to be more like classic Quentin Tarantino, which might disappoint those who loved the first half. Tarantino fans who might enjoy this but didn't like Kill Bill Vol. 1 may not be back, which is a shame.)

With the first half of the movie making almost $70 million, there is much anticipation and excitement from those who can’t wait to see the conclusion of the story; these people will rush out to see it opening weekend, allowing it to have an opening weekend between 20 and 25% higher than the previous installment despite opening in fewer theatres. Although it’s not a sequel, it should behave similar success, and with great advance reviews, Kill Bill Vol. 2 should reign over the box office this weekend with an opening weekend take between $25 and 28 million.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Kill Bill Vol. 1	10/10/03	3,102	$22.09	$7,121	$69.82
Jackie Brown	12/26/97	1,370	$9.01	$6,577	$39.67
Pulp Fiction	10/14/94	1,338	$9.31	$6,958	$107.93
The Avengers	8/14/98	2,466	$10.31	$4,181	$23.52
Once Upon a Time in Mexico	9/12/03	3,282	$23.42	$7,137	$55.85
Desperado	8/25/95	2,027	$7.91	$3,902	$25.53
Payback	2/5/99	2,720	$21.22	$7,801	$81.52

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THE PUNISHER (Lions’ Gate Studios)
Starring: Thomas Jane, John Travolta, A. Russell Andrews, Samantha Mathis, James Carpinello, Jeff Chase, Mark Collie, Russell Durham, Ben Foster, Laura Harring, Rebecca Romijn-Stamos, Roy Scheider
Directed by: Jonathan Hensleigh (debut)
Rated R
Tagline: “The Punishment Begins April 16, 2004”

Based on the popular Marvel Comics character, the Punisher is Frank Castle (Thomas Jane), a former military man working as an undercover agent for the FBI. When his family is killed by the mob as payback for his last job for the government, he goes on a vengeful rampage against them.

For most of the 70’s and 80’s, the Punisher was considered a third string character, making appearances in the Spider-Man and Daredevil comics before getting his own book in the late 80’s. By the 90’s, the character was so popular that Marvel featured him in three of his own comic titles, and in 2000, the book was relaunched by hot Irish writer, Garth Ennis, creator of “Preacher”, who gave the book an edgier and more humorous slant.

In May of that year, two months before X-Men and two years before Spider-Man, Artisan Films made a deal with Marvel Comics, who was then close to bankruptcy, to develop a number of projects based on their second string characters, including the Punisher. Last year, Vancouver based Lions Gate Films merged with Artisan and took over the license deals with Marvel. The Punisher ended up being the first project out of the gate, although it will be the second feature film based on the character. The first movie came out in 1989, at the height of the character’s popularity, with actor Lundgren playing the vigilante in what turned out to be a low budget dog that left a bad taste in the mouth of many comic fans. Over a decade later, comic book movies have reached new heights at the box office with movies like Spider-Man, The Hulk, X-Men and Daredevil doing a lot of business. The Punisher may not be as well known or popular as the first three, but he’s in the same league as the last one with many fans. A lot of the characters from the new movie are based on those from recent run by Garth Ennis, so current fans of the comic will have some connection to the movie, even though he’s been displaced to Miami from his regular stomping grounds of New York City.

This will be Thomas Jane’s first major starring role, after playing smaller parts in a number of critically successful movies like P. T. Anderson’s Boogie Nights and Magnolia, and the 1998 war movie, The Thin Red Line. Most people won’t know Jane either by name or face, which makes him perfect to bring the character to life, although his lack of star power won’t help the movie bring in audiences, something seen most recently by Ron Perlman starring as Hellboy.

Although they’re not prominently featured in the movie’s advertising, The Punisher does have its share of star power, with one of those stars already having impressive experience in comic book movies. Having appeared in both The X-Men and X2, former model Rebecca Romjin-Stamos takes on the role of one of Castle’s neighbors. Although her semi-nude portrayal of Mystique was a comic fanboy’s dream come true, her starring role in Brian De Palma’s revenge thriller, Femme Fatale, in 2002, was met with very little interest. Her next movie,the thriller Godsend with Robert DeNiro and Greg Kinnear, comes out at the end of the month.

The movie’s most recognizable star, John Travolta, plays the Punisher’s main antagonist. Travolta’s career dates all the way back to the 70’s and his appearance on the sitcom, ‘Welcome Back Kotter”, which led to a promising movie career including the hugely popular, Saturday Night Fever. After his career was resurrected in 1994 by appearing in Quentin Tarantin’s second movie, Pulp Fiction, Travolta starred in John Woo’s Broken Arrow and Face/Off. After his self-produced science fiction bomb, Battlefield Earth, Travolta has been laying low over the last few years, although he did attempt to make a comeback with last year’s military thriller, Basic, and the 2002 summer action flick, Swordfish, with X-Men Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry. His role in The Punisher has been played down, as he barely appears in the commercial or trailers, which might actually help the movie more than hurt it.

The Punisher is producer Gale Anne Hurd’s second movie based on a comic book after last year’s disappointing, The Hulk. This one has a lower budget of $40 million, so it will have less financial risk, but it also depends more on the characters, story and the acting, since it will be devoid of the CGI that has become so prevalent in “superhero” movies. Unlike other big comic movies, this doesn’t have an established director at the helm, although Jonathan Hensleigh has some experience in the action genre having written Bruce Willis’ Die Hard With a Vengeance and co-written Armageddon.

The movie’s promotional campaign was solid at first with movie posters and a teaser attached to The Hulk appearing almost a year ago. In New York City, the type of urban area where this sort of gritty vigilante movie would usually do well, a number of very cool subway and bus posters have been popping up all over that are very eye-catching.

Like Hellboy, this was originally to be released in mid-May as an early summer release, but Artisan (and then Lions Gate) decided to move it to April to get away from the bigger budget summer movies. None of this may matter since the move pits it against another revenge flick, the second half of Quentin Tarantino’s Kill Bill, which opens this weekend with far more buzz and anticipation. The full trailer and commercials for The Punisher do not look very promising, using a similar formula as Daredevil complete with generic metal—could be either Puddle of Mudd or Nickleback…they all sound the same—and the been-there-seen-that feel that seems to be affecting all superhero movies might hurt this one quite a bit. The R-rating might somewhat limit its audience to older males, unlike movies like Hellboy and Daredevil.

Of all the comic book movies released in the last few years, this one will have the toughest battle as it tries to take on the clear-cut favorite Kill Bill for the same male audience while getting significantly fewer theatres. The popularity of the comic book character might make it the first choice for many moviegoers, although more likely, it will end up being a second choice at theatres where Kill Bill has sold out. Either way, it should be able to make $14 to 16 million its opening weekend.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Swordfish	6/8/01	2,678		$18.14	$6,776	$69.72
Face/Off	6/27/97	2,621		$23.39	$8,924	$112.28
Broken Arrow	2/9/96	2,388		$15.58	$6,524	$70.65
Femme Fatale	11/8/02	1,066	$0.65	$2.78	$2,604	$6.59
Hellboy	4/2/04	3,028		$23.17	$7,652	$40.50
Daredevil	2/14/03	3,471		$45.03	$12,974	$102.54
The X-Men	7/14/00	3,025		$54.47	$18,007	$157.30
Blade	8/21/98	2,322		$17.07	$7,351	$70.10
Spawn	8/1/97	2,536		$21.21	$8,364	$54.97

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

KLETZMER ON FISH STREET (Castle Hill Productions)
YOUNG ADAM (Sony Pictures Classics)

Kletzmer on Fish Street, Yale Strom’s documentary about the resurgence of Jewish culture in Poland after the Holocaust is a personal film about his trip to Poland with his grandmother and a klezmer band made up of his Jewish-American friends. It opens in New York this weekend.

Ewan McGregor and Tilda Swinton star in Young Adam, adapted by David McKenzie from the beat novel by Alexander Trocchi about Joe, a drifter who takes work on a barge, where he gets into a sexual relationship with the barge owner’s wife. When the corpse of a naked woman is found, Joe tries to reconcile with a dark secret from his past as his life gets more complicated. Having stirred up controversy with its NC-17 rating for sex and nudity, Young Adam opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last year, this weekend coincided with Easter with three new movies in wide release and two in limited release, pretty much covering most of the bases. Based on the popular kids’ book, Disney’s Holes, starring upcoming young star Shia Lebouf, grossed over $16 million on the three day weekend after making over $7 million on Good Friday. The popularity of the book and the solid quality of the film helped make it a first choice in a weekend where family films like Spy Kids have done well. The cross-cultural comedy Malibu’s Most Wanted, starring Jamie Kennedy, did the best among older males earning $12.6 million in just over 2,500 theatres. Opening two days earlier, Hong Kong legend Chow Yun Fat teamed with Seann Wiliam Scott for the comic book based action movie, Bulletproof Monk, but that didn’t fare very well, making just over $11 million in the five days. (Scott’s team-up with the Rock for The Rundown later that year did much better.) Also opening on Wednesday in less than 600 theatres and evading the Top 10 completely was the Latin-tinged romantic comedy Chasing Papi, which made just under $2.5 million on the weekend. Christopher (Best in Show) Guest’s folk music documentary, A Mighty Wind, starring the same cast as his last few movies, opened on Wednesday in limited release, but it made over $2 million on the Easter weekend with an average of almost $16,000 per theatre.

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Next week, a lighter weekend with a romantic comedy and an espionage thriller vying for the top spot. The cross-time romance 13 Going on 30 stars Jennifer Garner of the ABC hit drama “Alias”, while Denzel Washington protects Dakota Fanning in Tony Scott’s thriller Man on Fire.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas