The Lego Movie will be dominating this weekend. I hadn’t seen tracking before writing up my predictions (Brad will be adding those upon publication), but my $45.5 million call could end up being low if the market is hungry enough. The only sticking point? This opening would already represent the fourth-highest February opening ever. I’m not totally sold on the marketing, but I am sold on the idea that no one has seen a decent new (non-Oscar) release in ages. Finally, a real movie!
The Monuments Men looks to be a return to Leatherheads form for George Clooney. Do you remember that one? Probably not, because it was horrible, and no one saw it. But Clooney did direct it, just as he did this one. Continuing our look down memory lane, Leathernecks only managed 52 percent on RottenTomatoes. Back to present day, Monuments Men is at 41 percent! I predict a halfway decent opening, because people are going to see Matt Damon, John Goodman and Bill Murray, and think, “This must be good”. $16.8 million is my call, but next weekend might not be kind.
The Vampire Academy is one of those young adult films that doesn’t seem to have an audience. Where are they even running the ads for it? Now clearly, I’m not the target demo, but it doesn’t even look like they screened it for anyone. With only 2,500 theaters, this is our clear bronze medal winner at $8.8 million
That Awkward Moment is the only holdover we’re going to predict, and it’s a tricky one because it deserves a big dip, but we’re already coming off the Super Bowl doldrums. So what should we do? I don’t know about you, but I’m going to middle it. Give it a 45 percent drop and a $4.8 million weekend, which is the highest drop for any film in my top ten, but still not really befitting the prodigious drop this one would be facing were it coming off an actual box office weekend.
Current Record: 5-15 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Lego Movie: $43.8 million
- The Monuments Men: $19.5 million
- Vampire Academy: $8 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.