Box Office Predictions: ‘Thor: The Dark World’ Looks to be the Next Avenger at #1


Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Thor the Dark WorldThor: The Dark World will crush the box office this weekend, our only goal is to predict just how much of a sequel bump we’re looking at. This guy (me) is going slightly under tracking, predicting a $83.6 million weekend. My reasoning is that the original opened at $65.7 million, and I just feel like plus $20 million is asking too much. Thor 2 certainly is broad, and a huge number wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest, but my oracle eye is a little bearish.

The rest of the weekend is shrouded in mystery, you might want to break out your Ouija board to have a shot. Why? Because as of this writing our next two titles merely list “nationwide expansion” under theater counts, which honestly could mean anything at this point. 750 theaters? 2,000?

The first film up for consideration is 12 Years a Slave. You might want to hang back until the actual theater counts are released, but then of course you won’t get your tie-breaking numbers in. I get the dilemma. But I’m facing my own problems as I’m dancing in the dark over here, figuring 750 theaters and just under $8 million. I wish you luck.

Next up, About Time. Another “nationwide expansion”, only this one I’m giving a generous 1,000 theaters based on pure speculation. Those figures get the film to $4 million, because I see a slight downgrade in per theater average due to less enforced scarcity.

Finally, The Book Thief is a known quantity, boasting of a mighty four theaters. I’m plugging in $60,000 because there are no huge name attached and the early reviews aren’t glowing (only 50 percent on RottenTomatoes). But as always with these new extremely limited releases the per theaters averages can skyrocket, that’s just New York and Los Angeles for you.

I now place the predictions in your capable hands, let’s see your best calls on this weekend’s shenanigans.

Current Record: 25-52-3 against the wisdom of crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Thor: The Dark World: $85 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.