Box Office Predictions: ‘Gravity’ Hopes for Third Week at #1, Can the ‘Carrie’ Remake Stop It?


Weekend Box-Office Predictions

GravityGravity will win its third straight weekend at the box office, astonishingly making it the first film of 2013 to do so (for the record, five films pulled off the feat in 2012). Just another indicator of a studio system slowly undoing itself; the competition is far too heated for any one movie to maintain staying power anymore. That said, we’re not going to predict Gravity again this week, though I’ll say I see another drop in the 20 percent range.

Now then, let’s turn our attention to three new releases … and one, very buzzy, limited release.

Carrie is the only real challenger to the crown, but you’ll have to go above tracking to get it there. Is there any real excitement for this title? I can’t sense it, but then again, I’m not the target demographic. Classic horror remakes tend to have a limited ceiling, but there’s no reason one can’t thrive on an opening weekend. If it did manage to take first place it would be the first horror film since July’s The Conjuring to do so. My take? $22.5 million, about ten percent below tracking.

Next up, Escape Plan, a film that somehow has even less anticipation than the Carrie remake. But it’s not half bad! Seriously. Will that help at all this weekend? Not a bit, Bullet to the Head and The Last Stand show clear audience fatigue with the muscle-bound men of the ’80s. I’m going below tracking yet again, daring you to go higher. My call is $9.6 million.

The Fifth Estate? Lol. Even when Hollywood does try to make an adult film they botch it completely. The tracking is abysmal, the theater counts paltry, everything about this film screams, “never to be heard from again” (just read Brad’s review). However, they have spent a fair amount on marketing, I base that on seeing a few trailers during primetime, so I think it will slightly over-perform those extremely low expectations. $5.1 million is where I see this ending up, interested to see your take.

Finally, 12 Years a Slave will get 18 theaters this weekend in New York, Los Angeles and other major markets (see the list here), and I’m going to put it at a very strong $1.3 million, though I’m bearish on its overall box office future.

Now it’s your turn, get those predictions in early and accurately!

Current Record: 19-46-3 against the wisdom of crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Carrie: $25.2 million
  • The Escape Plan: $10.2 million
  • The Fifth Estate: $4 million
  • 12 Years a Slave: N/A

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.