Box Office Predictions: ‘Man of Steel’ Will Soar, But How High?


Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Man of SteelMan of Steel tracking is all over the board, from $87 million (MTC) to $140 million (RS). That, my friends, is a hell of a variance. So while I’m not exactly middling the number with my $102 million prediction, I am saying MTC is a bit low, while the RS tracking is massively optimistic. Not sure who they were polling there, but it might have been Amy Adams‘ family.

Now then, $102 million might seem like a nice result, but once you factor in that hefty $225 million production budget you come up with the notion that Man of Steel will need to put up a 1:1 multiplier overseas to have any hope of turning a profit.

They’ve done a few clever things to help on that front, pulling in Christopher Nolan, not calling it “Superman” – and all while giving the film a “global” feel. Is any of this going to work? Maybe, a little, but I still hold that the overseas market isn’t all-in on Americana, and that 1:1 multiplier is about all they can hope for, Captain America-style. Which means Warner Bros. has probably set up the franchise for future success, but this won’t be a huge winner for them, unless Man of Steel can put up a number north of $125 million this weekend.

The other main wide release of the weekend is This is the End. I expect this to outperform expectations by a wide margin, though to be fair that’s based largely on the $8 million dollar Wednesday the film just raked in. Clearly America passed on The Internship, but I believe that just left them yearning for something decent to see. This is that something.

Our final title of note, the small release of the week, is Before Midnight. This one is expanding to a healthy 600 theaters, and I’ve given it $6,000 per for a total of $3.6 million and a tenth place finish, a slight upgrade on the previous version’s performance. I don’t know why a huge swath of people would choose to jump on this ship this late into the narrative, but if you’ve got a theory as to why, by all means, let’s hear it.

With that said, what’s your take on Man of Steel, This is the End, and Before Midnight? We’ve got a new, most awesome, prediction game coming, so get your final practice reps in!

Current Streak: Zero weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: Man of Steel will win going away.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Man of Steel: $87 million
This is the End: $12 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.