The Croods will be the runaway winner this weekend, the only real drama is how high will it soar? This could be a case where the tracking is actually a bit low, there’s likely some family dollars out there that don’t know their spring break plans just yet. The budget looks to be an unconfirmed $145 million, which is passable, but How to Train Your Dragon only managed a 1.3x multiplier overseas, and if The Croods can’t put up more than that, this will need home video and television residuals to thrive. Still, I feel great about a $50 million prediction, if anything I could see going higher, it’s a quality movie that will draw positive word-of-mouth and a pleasant CinemaScore.
Olympus Has Fallen looks to be another breakout candidate, getting over 3,000 theaters and able to take on Oz the Great and Powerful during its third weekend. One potential sticking point is that R rating, will young adults flock to this? And what do you make of the international prospects? It’s the biggest mystery of the weekend, and my $27 million prediction could very easily be off by seven million dollars in either direction.
The two smaller films of the weekend seem to be headed in opposite directions. First up, Admission is doomed, only drawing 2,100 theaters and offering a marketing promotion that looks to be trading entirely on audiences goodwill toward Paul Rudd and Tina Fey. Still, the tracking is abysmal, and there’s little reason to think $7 million isn’t the number.
Gaining steam is Spring Breakers. It’s only getting 1,000 theaters, but the anecdotal buzz is there, as is the risque poster situation. This will likely be the young male call of the weekend, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it hit double digits and grab a top five finish.
How say you? A nice cornucopia of new releases to consider, anyone who can get dialed in on all four will earn my unending respect.
Current Streak: Six weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: The tracking is there, children are on spring break, and this will be a slam-dunk win.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
The Croods: $45 million
Olympus Has Fallen: $22 million
Admission: $7 million
Spring Breakers: $6 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.