Box-Office Predictions: Will ‘Die Hard’ Win Over ‘Beautiful Creatures’ and ‘Safe Haven’ this Valentine’s?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: Three weekends in a row.
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Seven percent.
Reason: The “event” film of the weekend is A Good Day to Die Hard, it should win easily over the classic “no one wins” battle of Safe Haven vs. Beautiful Creatures.

MTC Tracking
A Good Day to Die Hard: $39 million
Safe Haven: $20 million
Beautiful Creatures: $14 million
Escape from Planet Earth: $13 million

A Good Day to Die HardA Good Day to Die Hard looks to be the clear demographic winner, even though it’s Valentine’s Day Weekend. There are four new contenders for the crown, but none of the others have 25 years of marketing and fandom built up. That said, this will be a great test of social media. It’s not a mistake that this film currently stands at zero percent on RottenTomatoes, going o-fer for its first nine reviews.

Will this be one of the first films to be sunk by Twitter? Or will artificially lowered expectations help assuage the audience’s ire? It will be fascinating to watch play out.

As far as predictions go, I’ve got it topping out at $34.1 million with tracking suggesting $39 million, but I have a feeling word of mouth is going to kill this one as the weekend wears on.

The contenders aren’t really contenders at all, mostly due to poor timing. Side Effects, Warm Bodies, Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures will all be competing for the same date night dollars. The quality on these projects is all over the board, but I liked three out of four (sorry, Julianne Hough).

I’ve got both of the romantic new releases, Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures, performing over tracking at $24 million and $18 million, respectively. Still, if you’re looking for monetary slippage that’s a nice place to start.

The oddest release of the weekend is Escape from Planet Earth, which didn’t screen for critics and looks to have been left for dead by The Weinstein Company. In fact, a lawsuit alleging mishandling of the film was only recently settled, proof positive that something strange is happening here. At just under $12 million I have it slightly under-performing, I’m paying to see it tomorrow so that’s something.

How say you? It’s nice to have four new releases to predict, we’re finally headed the right direction at the box office. Give it your best shot!

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.

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