2013 Oscar Predictions: After the SAGs and PGAs, ‘Argo’ Takes the Best Picture Lead


Argo dummy posterI admit, I didn’t see it coming and to look at the nominations it’s even harder to see Argo making the recent move in the Best Picture race as it has now won Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes and with the Producers Guild and won Best Ensemble last night at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. With a track record like that, it’s pretty hard to consider anything else the Best Picture front-runner. Yet, some are sticking to their Lincoln. guns.

Now I’m not saying Lincoln is out of it. In fact, last night I think Lincoln got a small bump thanks to the win for Tommy Lee Jones. Jones had no major wins to his credit until last night and the support shown from the body of his peers, which totals over 100,000 voters is a good sign for his chances at the Oscars.

Last night’s win for Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) was also a big one as the question of whether it would be her or Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) would go into the Oscars the favorite seems to have finally been answered officially.

Then you have Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) as your two locks for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

So now let’s get back to Argo and a question a lot of folks have been asking since it became the preeminent front-runner. What else is it going to win?

Nominated in seven categories, I currently have it winning in two — Best Picture and Best Film Editing. I also have it in second, behind Lincoln, for Best Adapted Screenplay, which is becoming an increasingly interesting race, but I think I’ll be sticking with Lincoln. I will, however, be paying close attention to the Writers Guild Awards on February 17 for a hint as to any shift in the winds.

Affleck, of course, was not nominated for Best Director, which is the #1 reason Argo was considered to not have much of a chance at Best Picture. Only three times has Best Picture gone to a film without a Director nomination, but it’s beginning to seem as if Affleck is getting his share of recognition in that category elsewhere and should he win with the Directors Guild this Saturday, February 2, I’m pretty sure even the naysayers will move Argo to their top line.

So who will win Best Director in that case? And that becomes a rather curious question, though at this point I can’t see it going to anyone other than Steven Spielberg (Lincoln). David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and Ang Lee (Life of Pi) are certainly in the running, but Spielberg seems like the smart prediction at this time. I wouldn’t mind, however, seeing either Michael Haneke (Amour) or Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) sneak in there and take it, just to mix things up a bit.

All that said, you can see all of my current predictions right here, where I made changes to the Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Animated race, the latter of which I’m having a hard time choosing between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph. I mean, I know which one is best, but does the Academy?