Three Scenarios for Tonight’s 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards and Your Prediction Results

2013 SAG Awards Predictions

In just over an hour we will be live blogging tonight’s 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards beginning around 3 PM PST, but first I thought we could take a look at the results of your predictions as well as what it might mean for the Oscar race depending on which films win tonight.

First off, I don’t think it’s any secret Argo has the momentum after wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes and last night’s Producers Guild Awards. A couple days ago it seemed the race for SAG’s Best Ensemble category was between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook with an outside chance for Les Miserables, but now it would be silly not to include Argo in that horse race leaving The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel nominees to drink as much as they want without fear they’ll have to go up and give an acceptance speech.

The question, however, is to ask Can Argo actually win Best Ensemble?

When my SAG predictions were posted on Thursday I picked Silver Linings to win Ensemble, but last night in my write up of the results of the Producer Guild Awards I said I “would change that vote to Argo in a heartbeat.” That was a knee-jerk reaction and one I can’t stand by today.

I still think we’re looking at a race between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook and I don’t expect either Les Mis or Argo to play spoiler. Even further, I still think Silver Linings is the likely winner.

What does this mean for the Oscar race? Well, here are three scenarios I can see coming out of tonight.

Scenario #1: Argo wins Best Ensemble and goes on to win Best Picture.

Scenario #2: Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Ensemble and Best Picture becomes a race between Argo, Silver Linings and Lincoln, though I think Silver Linings is going to need a little more help than just one win, but more on that after…

Scenario #3: Lincoln wins Best Ensemble and the race for Best Picture is between Argo and Lincoln with Argo the narrow front-runner.

If you’re wondering how often Best Picture matches up with Best Ensemble each year, the answer is, not often. Only eight times in the 17 years the award has been handed out (the award didn’t exist the first year the SAGs were held) have the winners matched up. It’s the reason for the three scenarios above, and for Silver Linings to get a big bump not only will it need to win Best Actress for Jennifer Lawrence, but Robert De Niro better win as well. In fact, Supporting Actor could be a good category to keep an eye on as it’s a wide open field down there with contenders from all three major Best Picture contenders looking to win.

Now for the results of your predictions, and I can’t help but wonder how those Best Ensemble votes would have turned out had Argo won at the Producers Guild last weekend instead of last night. Either way, we’re locked in and the show is beginning shortly. Have a look at the poll results and a second peek at my thoughts as to who will win in each of the five motion picture categories directly below.

You can find the full list of movie and television nominees right here, and I will be back shortly as we will be live-blogging the red carpet, starting sometime around 3 PM PST.

MY PICK: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Daniel Day-LewisThis is a lay-up, we all know how this one is going to turn out unless someone hacked the results.

MY PICK: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Jennifer LawrenceI am still confidently predicting Jennifer Lawrence is going to beat Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) at the Oscars and that confidence comes from an expectation that Lawrence will also be taking home the SAG Award. The two actresses were both awarded at the Globes and the last time they went head-to-head, at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Chastain came out on top. That said, I see the critics going one way and the actors going another. How about you?

MY PICK: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Philip Seymour HoffmanProbably the hardest prediction on the board to make. I’m going wth Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), largely because the love for Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) doesn’t really seem to be there and I don’t think Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) has enough juice just yet. Crstoph Waltz (Django Unchained) won the Golden Globe, but he isn’t eligible here and Hoffman won the Critics’ Choice Award, which I don’t really think gives him too much of an edge, but the fact he’s won something and Jones has so far won nothing (outside of the Las Vegas Critics Award), I have to go with Hoffman here.

MY PICK: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Anne HathawayOkay, every bit as much as Daniel Day-Lewis is a sure-thing, so is Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) and I’m sure we’ll all be treated to some sort of “Oh my, I never expected it speech” as she preps for her Oscar crowning, but that’s the price of admission folks.

MY PICK: Silver Linings Playbook

Silver Linings PlaybookThe year Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan at the Oscars for Best Picture, Shakespeare also won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble as well as Best Actress (Gwyneth Paltrow), which means at this point you have to either decide history is going to repeat itself or the times they are a changin’. My prediction is in.

And that does it, I will see you here tonight for the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards. The show begins at 6 p.m. (ET)/ 3 p.m. (PT) and can be seen on TNT. I will be blogging with my partner in crime Laremy Legel, and we will be using a new format that should make following the action much, much easier. We can’t wait!

If you’re interested you can check out our previous SAG live blogs at the following links: Live Blog Home.

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