Box-Office Oracle: ‘Trouble with the Curve’ Will Slide Pass ‘Dredd’


Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: 0 Straight Weekends #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Starting a New Streak: High
Reason: Trouble with the Curve is a terrible movie, and Dredd is solid. So there’s at least a chance the market will make a smart decision, right?

After two absolutely horrid weekends we’ll gain some semblance of normality back this weekend – a top twelve with a cume around $90m. We’re back, baby! This weekend is also compelling because of the pure good vs. evil match-up. On one hand you have a movie that hates computers. On the other you’ve got a 3-D remake that’s amazingly watchable. Let’s break it down!

Trouble with the CurveTrouble with the Curve won’t win the per theater average, but it should have enough marketing oomph to fend off Dredd. It’s a demo that’s under-served, older folk, and there’s likely a family component here as well. The tracking is actually around $18m right now, but I had to dip it to $16.2 million because both Brad and myself abhorred it on a major level.

Strange side note: I took my in-laws to Trouble with the Curve and they basically liked it. It got a little awkward when I had to tell them just how wrong they were, but that was the only way healing could take place.

Dredd 3D is the film to take a hard look at if you’re yearning for a spoiler. Sylvester Stallone‘s Judge Dredd opened at $5,500 per theater, and I’ve only got Dredd at $6,000… a full 17 years later. Ugh, I already hate picking against Dredd, and I hope the marketplace proves me wrong. I never though I’d be pulling for a 3-D film over a Clint Eastwood / Amy Adams movie, but here we are. It’s a new world.

There’s action further down the board as well, as House at the End of the Street, End of Watch and The Master should all finish in the top seven this weekend. The first film, House at the End of the Street has Jennifer Lawrence, which is a pretty impressive get for a horror film. Someone needs to do a study on how many Oscar nominees have starred in a thriller after their arthouse film. That equation usually goes the other direction. I’ll wait while you do the research!

End of Watch has Jake Gyllenhaal … but poor tracking given the hard R rating. The Master won’t have enough theater counts to triumph, but it should make a nice showing a la There Will be Blood at the end of January back in 2008.

How say you? So much to consider this weekend, I know I ruminated quite a bit. Predictions away and Brad will be back Sunday morning to tell us how right (or wrong) we all were. Get your name in and be recognized in digital ink if you so dare.

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.