Box-Office Oracle: ‘The Avengers’ Go for Three in a Row Against ‘Battleship’ and ‘The Dictator’


Weekend Box-Office Predictions for May 18-20, 2012

Can you say three-peat? I think you can, because it’s fairly easy to pronounce. Three-peat! Let’s break it down …

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

The Avengers

What a run for The Avengers! A billion worldwide on a production budget of $220m, and it’s still got weeks of earning ahead. It will pass Toy Story 3 for #2 on the all-time 3-D list this weekend, which is as far as it will ever get because Avatar‘s $760m domestic is well out of reach.

2012 is also on a roll, we’re only in May, and we’ve already had two films — The Avengers and The Hunger Games — go over $382m domestically. How many films accomplished that in 2011? Zero. We can also expect The Dark Knight Rises to get well over that number, making the score 3 to zilch and that’s only through July.

Prediction: $60.5 million

Whoo boy, this one is quite the disaster. The tracking is higher, but I think it has little chance of picking up word of mouth this weekend. I’m betting against. The best anyone will say about this is “Well, it WAS quite loud”. Good thing they’ve already clocked $215m internationally, for a rainy day.
Prediction: $30.5 million
I wanted to go even lower because the trailers don’t interest me at all … but then again I’m a focus group of one, anecdotal evidence at best. Then I noticed Bruno opened at $11k per theater, and Borat did the same once it reached 2,500 theaters. So how can I go lower than $6k per theater here? Answer: I can’t.
Prediction: $18 million
The biggest dipper of the weekend. How did they spend $150m on this??!! Where’s the money, Burton??!!
Prediction: $13.6 million
I realize this has been a popular book over the course of many decades … but I still think it’s a terrible title. The reviews haven’t been too kind, but at least they are targeting an under-served audience.
Prediction: $13.5 million
What’s the record for domestic vs international multiplier? Because stateside this is rocking about 100x to 1 right now.
Prediction: $4.4 million
This has made $80m worldwide! If it had done that domestically, it would be in the top ten for 2012.
Prediction: $4 million
At this point, shouldn’t they just rush it to home video? You don’t want to risk losing any demand.
Prediction: $2.8 million
I’ve managed to repress most of this movie.
Prediction: $2.4 million
Eva Mendes is in this! That, plus the fact that it takes nothing to get in the top ten makes Girl in Progress a winner this year.
Prediction: $1.7 million

How say you? Think Battleship has the oomph to take the top spot? Am I too low on What to Expect or The Dictator? Predictions away!

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