I’ve already posted my early Best Actor predictions and so now it’s time to look at the year’s leading ladies. Just like the actor category I am sticking with my rule of listing no more than 20 names (ore thereabouts) so as not to make the list so long it just doesn’t matter. Certainly others can and most likely will be added to the list as the year goes on, just as others may drop from it, but for now this is where I stand. After all… it’s still really early.
To begin with, if I had to place a bet on the five names that would be nominated at the end of the year I’m not sure anyone is going to be all that surprised when they see my current list.
- Helen Hunt (The Surrogate)
- Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
- Laura Linney (Hyde Park On Hudson)
- Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
- Viola Davis (Won’t Back Down)
Nothing surprising about those names, though I only feel confident about the first three at this point.
There has already been plenty of buzz surrounding Helen Hunt’s performance in The Surrogate, which Fox Searchlight snatched up out of Sundance and may also be able to score a Best Actor bid for John Hawkes. Anytime Keira Knightley goes period and especially when she does so with Joe Wright, I expect big things and Hyde Park On Hudson just seems to be one of those films that will deliver.
As for the bottom two, I can’t tell what we should expect from Alfonso Cuaron‘s Gravity as the man’s creativity may outweigh the film’s performances and my hesitation with Viola Davis in Won’t Back Down is in large part due to the fact her co-star, Maggie Gyllenhaal, may end up as strong competition. They could cancel each other out or Gyllenhaal may get the better role. One could be considered supporting. Who knows?
Below the top five I am excited to see what Marion Cotillard will offer in not only the highly anticipated Cannes entry Rust & Bone, but in James Gray’s Lowlife. I also can’t tell if Nicole Kidman will be considered supporting in one or both The Paperboy and Stoker. With The Paperboy also playing Cannes we should know soon enough.
One possible surprise could come in the form of Mary Elizabeth Winstead in James Ponsoldt’s Smashed, though that is probably my furthest outlier at this point.
While most are trying to talk up Jennifer Lawrence for The Hunger Games (even though there is no chance of that happening), the role to look at in her case will be The Silver Linings Playbook. The role may, and most likely will, end up being pushed for supporting, but if she knocks it out of the park and the lead actress race proves a bit weak don’t be surprised to see The Weinstein Co. push lead on this one.
I’m also looking at Rachel McAdams in Terrence Malick’s latest as a contender, Andrea Riseborough in Shadow Dancer, Quvenzhane Wallis in the Sundance favorite and recent Cannes entry Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts in The Impossible and I’m giving Amanda Seyfried yet another chance in Lovelace (primarily because it’s directed by the boys behind Howl and The Times of Harvey Milk).
And yes, there are typical heavy hitters including Helen Mirren, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep and it will be interesting to see what Carey Mulligan comes with in Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby.
All that said, here are 17 more names to add to the five above along with three stragglers after that. I tried to keep it at 20 and hopefully once I get my “Contenders” section updated and ready for the new year I’ll have whittled this list down a bit more.
Have a look and let me know if you think there are any I should add or any you simply don’t think belong.
- Marion Cotillard (Lowlife)
- Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
- Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
- Maggie Gyllenhaal (Won’t Back Down)
- Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)*
- Nicole Kidman (Stoker)*
- Jennifer Lawrence (The Silver Linings Playbook)*
- Rachel McAdams (The Burial)
- Helen Mirren (The Door)
- Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
- Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby)
- Andrea Riseborough (Shadow Dancer)
- Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)
- Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
- Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Mia Wasikowska (Stoker)
- Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
* Could be considered supporting
A few that landed outside my list include Abbie Cornish for The Girl, which recently played the Tribeca Film Festival to decent reviews, though the praise seemed more for Cornish than the movie. I’m not sure what to expect from Jonathan Glazer‘s Under the Skin with Scarlett Johansson, but until I hear more I’m not adding it here.
Finally, I don’t want to not mention Noomi Rapace and Prometheus. Sigourney Weaver earned a nomination for Aliens back in 1987 so I’m not about to overlook Rapace, but my list was already over 20 so she’ll have to sit on the outside looking in until the film is seen or others drop out.
