Weekend Box-Office: ’21 Jump Street’ Arrests Competition with $35 Million Opening

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Weekend box-office for March 15-18, 2012 with 21 Jump Street taking #1 with $35 million.

No big surprises this weekend as things essentially played out as expected with 21 Jump Street taking the top spot and John Carter failing to inspire larger numbers. Let’s break it down…

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row

21 Jump Street

21 Jump Street
Laremy was almost on target this week with his prediction at the top, predicting 21 Jump Street for a $33.6 million weekend as it landed at the top with an estimated $35 million. The film was made on a $45 million budget and Sony has already put Jonah Hill and Michael Bacall to work penning a sequel, which is in no way a surprise given the film’s advance buzz, this opening weekend and the conclusion to the film, which pretty much solidified a sequel before a ticket was ever purchased.

This is also a title I see holding over rather well with what may be a 35% drop considering this coming weekend only has The Hunger Games in wide release giving this R-rated comedy plenty of room to breathe.

Looking over reader predictions from Thursday, I was actually a little surprised to see no one predicted $35 million, but Rg Serna got as close as you could get with a $34 million prediction making for the closest on the board.

Weekend: $35 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 87%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $33.6 million was $1.4m off for a percentage error of 4%.
Laremy continued a strong batch of predictions, though he did expect The Lorax to hold on a little better than it did as it has now made over $158 million domestically.
Weekend: $22.8 million (-41.2% drop) / Cume: $158.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 58%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $23.9 million, which is $1.1m off for a 4.82% error.
It’s a sad day for John Carter as it just can’t manage to gain any traction as everyone tries to dissect just what went wrong and who’s to blame. This weekend fingers will continue to be pointed in varied directions, though director Andrew Stanton seems to be the prime target, as the film only managed $13.5 million, dipping 55% from its opening weekend and bringing its domestic cume to just over $53 million. Internationally it’s faring better scoring a total of $126.1 million so far for a grand total of $179+ million worldwide.
Weekend: $13.5 million (-55.1% drop) / Cume: $53.1 million / RottenTomatoes: 51%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $16.3 million, which is $2.8m off for a 20.74% error.
Michael Bacall is already at work on a sequel to Project X as the low budget feature has now made over $48 million. By the way, did you see my prediction from one person even died? I hate to say I saw it coming, but…
Weekend: $4 million (-64% drop) / Cume: $48.1 million / RottenTomatoes: 25%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $5.7 million, which is $1.7m off for a 42.5% error.
Eddie Murphy made a movie and it has now made over $12 million domestically. I’ll let you continue the commentary below if you feel more needs to be said.
Weekend: $3.7 million (-39.3% drop) / Cume: $12.1 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $2.9 million, which is $0.8m off for a 21.62% error.
This continues to be a model on how to make money at the box-office. Last weekend people were a bit confused when I said you could make Act of Valor, Project X and The Vow for less than Universal spent to make The Lorax, assuming I meant I wanted more of these kinds of films. I was just telling the truth and if I ran a studio I would want to make movies that made money. While we would all prefer to see better movies than all of those I just mentioned being made, the fact remains, it’s a good business model.

By the way, did you notice this is the second prediction this week Laremy got exactly right. Now that deserves some silent applause.

Weekend: $3.6 million (-47.8% drop) / Cume: $62.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 29%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $3.6 million and he was exactly right!
Here’s another good business model… appeal to the overseas market where this film has already brought in over $200 million.
Weekend: $3.4 million (-5.6% drop) / Cume: $95 million / RottenTomatoes: 42%
Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked
If you have anything to say about this one, feel free.
Weekend: $2.7 million (-43.8% drop) / Cume: $120.2 million / RottenTomatoes: 54%
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $2.7 million and he was exactly right!
Kudos goes out to Dennis for being the only person on Thursday to even give a number for Will Ferrell’s new Spanish-language comedy. He may have been a bit high with his $4 million prediction, but you have to play to win and he played, so… he wins.
Weekend: $2.2 million / RottenTomatoes: 46%
Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked
And this is the last we’ll likely hear of This Means War.
Weekend: $2.1 million (-43.2% drop) / Cume: $50.5 million / RottenTomatoes: 26%
Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked

Elsewhere, Jeff, Who Lives at Home opened to a weak $840,000 from 254 theaters, which tells me a lot of people probably looked at those trailers and felt the same way I did before I saw the film. That said, I gave it a chance and it is well worth it.

Next weekend brings The Hunger Games and I’ve already seen some sources expecting a $95 million opening. How do you see it? Anyone care to post some early predictions?

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