Box-Office Predictions: '21 Jump Street' Eyes #1 as the Only New Wide Release This Week

Box-Office Oracle: ’21 Jump Street’ Eyes #1 as the Only New Wide Release This Week

March 15, 2012

By Laremy Legel

It looks to be another easy call at the top, the only new wide release of the weekend is being heavily marketed and blurbed. It should be a soft weekend due to March Madness, though at least four million people will catch the top film this weekend. That film? Without further delay…

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

21 Jump Street

I’m a little more bullish on this title than most, mostly because it’s the only game in town and the money has to go somewhere. Easy A and Bad Teacher feel like reasonable comps, and a $10k+ opening looks to be in the bag.

As far as the top line talent involved, this should be the sixth $100+ million film Jonah Hill has had a prominent part in. Sure, some of that was voice work, but he’s only in his 20s. Channing Tatum (C-Tates) has only appeared in two films of that level (G.I. Joe and The Vow) but he brings in the female demographic, and his comedic timing here is excellent throughout.

Prediction: $33.6 million

2. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax

That 44.7 percent drop, against no new demographic competition, doesn’t bode well. Yeah, they opened strong, so this will still end up in the “win” column, but the holdovers won’t be pushing The Lorax into bonus money territory.

Prediction: $23.9 million

3. John Carter

I’ve got a 46 percent bleed happening here, even more bad news for John Carter. I’d like for people to see the film, but it’s starting to look like this one is polarizing audiences, or not interesting them at all.

Prediction: $16.3 million

4. Project X

$50m worldwide on a smallish production budget, it’s even managed $7m internationally. Warner Bros., scoreboard.

Prediction: $5.7 million

5. Friends with Kids

Getting a bump in theaters this weekend, and the field is weak. Brad seemed to like it, so it won’t need a huge performance to slip into the top five.

Prediction: $3.9 million

6. Act of Valor

$60m on a $12m production budget. Not much more to say here, especially given basketball is on.

Prediction: $3.6 million

7. Silent House

The costs here had to have been miniscule, so the $15m this one will take in domestically should be adequate.

Prediction: $3.5 million

8. A Thousand Words

At this point we can call this one a tax write-off.

Prediction: $2.9 million

9. Safe House

Denzel Washington’s first $100m film since American Gangster in 2007.

Prediction: $2.7 million

10. The Vow

It sits at a 5x multiplier, which is playing with power no matter how you slice it.

Prediction: $2.3 million

How say you? Predictions on 21 Jump Street? Thoughts on littles, Casa de mi Padre, Jeff, Who Lives at Home or Friends with Kids? Predict early, predict often!

Check out our complete Box-Office charts here and

subscribe to our updated Box-Office RSS feed here