Laremy predicted $70.64 million. I think I can safely say that was wrong, as the one major thing he didn’t take into account was the fact Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened approximately one week earlier than its predecessor, which opened on Christmas Day two years ago. Therefore, the verdict is still out on this one as it could have a nice pair of legs over the next three weeks and with an opening this low and a reported A- CinemaScore I wouldn’t be surprised if the next three weekends are pretty good for Sherlock, though there is going to be some stiff competition ahead.
As far as user predictions go, Chris Etrata continues an impressive streak of solid number crunching and this week predicted Sherlock 2 at $36 million for the closest pick on the board, just edging out a few mid-$40 million predictions.
How well do you see this one carrying over? 25% dip? 35%? After all, it was the fifteenth highest December opening ever, not like that actually means very much.
Weekend: $40 million RottenTomatoes Score:62% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $70.64 million was $30.64m off for a percentage error of 76.6%.
While Laremy was pretty far off with his Sherlock prediction, I think this is the more surprising result as Alvin and the Chipmunks – Chipwrecked! opened in 3,723 (23 more than the Squeakquel) and brought in $25 million less. The other thing to consider, Chipwrecked was in 3D, the Squeakquel wasn’t.
Weekend: $23.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $40.7 million, which is $17.2m off for a 73.19% error.
Aided by the prologue for The Dark Knight Rises in 42 of its 425 IMAX theaters Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol is certainly the most impressive opener of the weekend with a $30,588 per theater average and people seem to be really enjoying it as I believe seeing a film in 70mm IMAX bests any 3D presentation I’ve ever seen.
What will be interesting is to see just how high this film ends up going as it opens wide on December 21. It received the highest RottenTomatoes rating of all four films in the franchise (the first one only received a 61% rating) and may signal audiences aren’t ready for Ethan Hunt to hang up his shoes just yet.
Weekend: $13 million / RottenTomatoes:95% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $10 million, which is $3m off for a 23.08% error.
This film is actually funny, but based on the box-office receipts not many people have given it a chance to find out and from the CinemaScore, which I believe was a C+, and the RottenTomatoes score not many people agree with me. Oh well.
Weekend: $4.4 million (-55.1% drop) / Cume: $9.8 million / RottenTomatoes:25% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.31 million, which is $0.91m off for a 20.68% error.
Young Adult expanded into a total of 986 theaters and say its per theater average come in at $3,702, though I have a feeling Paramount wishes it would have done better. I actually watched this film again this weekend as well and can tell you right now, it’s a film best seen in the theater with a responsive audience for your first time seeing it. Don’t wait to see this film on DVD and Blu-ray, it just won’t have the same effect at home.
Weekend: $3.65 million / Cume: $4 million / RottenTomatoes:81% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6 million, which is $2.35m off for a 64.38% error.
Up to $39 million and now looking at a likely Best Picture nomination thanks to a strong critical response, some critical award recognition and decent box-office considering expectations. Nice work Marty, maybe keep the budget down a bit next time though.
Weekend: $3.62 million (-39.7% drop) / Cume: $39 million / RottenTomatoes:93% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.95 million, which is $2.33m off for a 64.36% error.
Did you go see The Muppets? Did you like it? Do you want to see more Muppet movies? Made on a $45 million budget, The Muppets aren’t exactly lighting the box-office on fire and it may take a serious Christmas miracle to see another Muppet feature film any time soon.
Weekend: $3.4 million (-50.7% drop) / Cume: $70.9 million / RottenTomatoes:97% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $4.089 million, which is $0.689m off for a 20.26% error.
There are still a few films to discuss as we’ll first look at Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which pulled in $452,000 from 16 theaters for a $28,250 per theater average and The Artist managed $287,000 from 17 theaters for a $16,882 per theater average.
The Weinsteins have The Artist on a slightly diminished roll-out when compared to The King’s Speech last year. Both films slowly hit theaters in December, but by Christmas The King’s Speech was in 700 theaters while The Artist expands to 170 next weekend.
Finally, Roman Polanski’s Carnage opened in five theaters this weekend and brought in $85,696 for a $17,139 per theater average.