You can imagine my consternation as Puss in Boots fell a miniscule three percent to take the weekend. Once again, the family dollar is the only thing you can count on in this economy. This weekend? It’s gonna be close, people. Extremely close.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
Puss in Boots
A 30 percent drop is the prediction, hard to go more than that given last weekend’s Avatar-like holdover number. I do worry about spending $130m here, feels $30m high, but they are going to make it all back and then some when you factor in the residuals. If you’re looking for random trivia for tonight’s cocktail party you should know that Puss in Boots needs another $80m to crack the Dreamworks Animation top ten. I’ll take the under.
This is now also considered the 7th highest grossing “Swashbuckler” film of all time, behind only the Pirates franchise, the ’90s Robin Hood, and The Mask of Zorro.
Prediction: $23.14 million
2. Immortals
The tracking is right at $24m, which means I’m going below tracking. The 3-D surcharge is a wash, so it will come down to theater counts. Puss in Boots has more of them. So even with Immortals‘s near $2k per screen advantage we should see a three-peat, the first since The Help. Remember that one?
Prediction: $23.1 million
I feel like there is a lot of downward momentum here. Remember, when the market finally gives up on a guy, it tends to happen all at once. It’s also rated PG, a confluence of bad mojo.
Prediction: $18.4 million
4. Tower Heist
A 43 percent dip might be too high. People aren’t loving it, and that $75m production budget looms large.
Prediction: $13.7 million
5. J. Edgar
Brad and I both are somewhat dismissive, but J. Edgar has its champions. The main thing working against it is the “adult drama” factor and the lesser 1,900 theaters.
Prediction: $12.35 million
Opened lower than Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay, but it cost 33 percent more to make. Not ideal.
Prediction: $5.7 million
7. In Time
It’s doing pretty well internationally, $37m and counting, which means they’ll find a profit somewhere in there.
Prediction: $4.34 million
I don’t think the genre should be called “found footage”. Found footage would technically be free.
Prediction: $4.33 million
9. Footloose
$55m on a $24m production budget. Dance movies are hard to lose money on, eh?
Prediction: $2.58 million
10. Real Steel
It passed $200m worldwide a few days ago, becoming the 23rd film of 2011 to accomplish that. Trivia: 38 movies pulled that off in 2010.
Prediction: $2.03 million
How say you? Three new releases ready for predicting, plus some legitimate intrigue in the top spot. Get some!
