Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 15 – Jan. 17, 2010

Avatar keeps winning, it fell just a smidge under 18 percent to take its fifth crown in a row. The film had the lowest drop-off among the top 25 and it’s crossed the $1.6b worldwide cume threshold. James Cameron even made a cameo on SNL this weekend. I’m pretty sure he could get Spider-Man: The Baby Years greenlit if he felt like it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 12 Week In A Row
It looks as though alert commenter JM was closest with a call of $40.9m.

What can Avatar do next? Cold Fusion? If they win The Golden Globe for Best Drama tonight the route could be on come March.

Result: 41.3 million (My rank: #1, $3.8m off)
Athar’s $32m prediction looks very nice right about now. The Book of Eli outperformed most analyst’s expectations, but they still have plenty of work to do. That $80m production budget looms.
Result: 31.6 million (My rank: #2, $3.1m off)
Curses, I should have seen the six months of marketing finally paying off.

JM nails it again, though John-PT and Mfan were close too. This is another film that will need to cash in during this slow season to have any hope of recouping that $100m production budget.

Result: 17.0 million (My rank: #4, $4.4m off)
I missed the boat on the holiday, parents with Monday off finally relented and shuffled off to see The Squeakquel. Alvin has outearned Sherlock Holmes worldwide, and on a lesser production budget, which I suppose indicates that it’s a children’s world. The rest of us are just renting.
Result: 11.5 million (My rank: #6, $3.6m off)
Back on track? They are making money here, but Warner Bros. could always use more. That’s why I expect a very special “special edition” DVD in three months.
Result: 9.8 million (My rank: #5, $1.6m off)
This was a case of parents choosing chipmunks over Chan. Did anyone on the board have that happening? The Jackal did, though it’s tough to give full credit as he had Spy Next Door finishing ninth, which would have been even more of a disaster. Will you take partial credit, Jackal?
Result: 9.7 million (My rank: #3, $4.0m off)
Meryl Streep can’t be stopped. She can only hope to be contained. Look for a very golden evening out of her.
Result: 7.6 million (My rank: #7, $0.4m off)
How do we feel about the potential of Leap Year 2: Total Leapage? They can take solace in the fact that the budget was only $19m.
Result: 5.8 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
I like Bullock to win tonight too, for this here movie, she’s earned it by giving the best performance of her career. Is it better than the other nominees? Impossible to quantify given the data we’re working with.
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #10, $.7m off)
What happened to Daybreakers? It fell 67 percent, that’s what. Not ideal.
Result: 5.4 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)

Next weekend? Low theater counts for the contenders… will Avatar join Titanic as the last film to take six weekend in a row? Did any of the results surprise you? I’ve got a busy Globes day planned, but I’ll be checking in on you, never fear.

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