Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 10 – Jul. 12, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
Last weekend’s victory was stolen from me on Monday when the actuals revealed Transformers: Revenge of the Bay had triumphed. Luckily, this weekend is much easier to call. It’s going to be Bruno on top, the only thing left to predict is the margin.

Borat opened at $31,607 per theater, but didn’t even hit 1,000 theaters. It expanded in its second weekend and did a more reasonable $11,017 per. Which is about where I have it. Though it’s not great, people are going to watch it. I feel like I’ve been saying that for a month.

Estimate: $33.1 million
Here is precisely where it gets interesting. The first Ice Age barely dipped in 2002. The second one dropped the industry standard 50 percent. I’ve gone a little softer on this title, I’m thinking 45 percent, if only because no genre competition is being released against it.
Estimate: $22.9 million
This film has caused an awful lot of conversation here on Rope, eh? I’m treating it much like Terminator: Salvation, another film that saw a 61 percent dip on its second weekend. However, just so you can’t accuse me of punishing films I dislike, I’m only knocking it 48 percent this weekend. Terminator: Salvation dropped 49.8 percent. See? I can be nice.
Estimate: $22.0 million
I’m bullish on this title. My theory depends largely on two million adults making their way to the theater this weekend. Something has to sell tickets this weekend.
Estimate: $15.7 million
It’s gaining nearly 60 theaters because Beth Cooper and Bruno aren’t appealing in some markets. So that’s like $300k of the damage right there.
Estimate: $9.8 million
I’ve heard they are talking sequel, and you can’t really blame them. They could fund three or four more efforts just like this without taking in another dime. It’s almost as if plot and quality matter when the sixth weekend at the box-office rolls around.
Estimate: $8.0 million
I’d urge every young filmmaker to see this as a cautionary tale. It’s a murderer’s row of what not to do. Unlikable and illogical characters, unexplainable arcs, weird pacing, forced dialogue. Truly an achievement. Fox continues to knock it out of the park. On the monetary side it doesn’t have enough theaters or awareness. Seriously, everyone involved should just take a bow here.
Estimate: $4.7 million
8. Up
Up has made $303m worldwide, but it still has tons of international dollars to collect. Terminator: Salvation has made $351m worldwide and is about done. So what I’m saying is this: Up could end up beating Salvation by a couple hundred million. I wouldn’t have called that coming into this summer.
Estimate: $3.0 million
Anyone up for seeing a film about a kid with cancer in the midst of the worst recession of our lives?
Estimate: $2.9 million
Yep, that’s a .9. It won’t even take a million dollars to crack the top ten. Night at the Museum will end up 11th if you need a bonus projection. If my numbers hold this will be the worst box-office weekend in ten weeks.
Estimate: $.9 million

So am I low on Bruno? Can Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen grab second? Am I underrating the teen appeal of Beth Cooper? Weigh in now, I read ’em all, even the mean ones.

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