Episode III box office predictions

[neo5595]

My prediction is that Episode III will gross around $375-$400 million domestically and $800-$850 million worldwide. I definetly think this film will be the highest grossing movie of 2005 and might earn a spot in top 15 highest grossing movies of all time. I think other major films that will also be competing for the top spot of 2005 will be The War of the Worlds, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, and King Kong. Because of all the hype this film is starting to recieve(because of its awesome new Theatrical Trailer), I predict it will gross around $30-$35 million on opening day and around $80-$90 million. As you can tell, I have very high hopes for this one. I think its gonna be great!

Predictions(in millions):
Domestic(U.S.)- $375-$400
Worldwide- $800-$850
Opening Day- $30-$35
Opening Weekend- $80-$90

[KaMiKaZi]

I couldn't agree more. Considering that this film will have the return of Darth Vader and that it will be the link between the old and the new and that it will be the most dramatic out of all of them, it has a strong chance of reachng 450 million dollars if not more. It might also surpass the previous starwars box office records. Who knows. After all EVERY starwars film has been a big blockbuster hit.

[Andrey83]

Yes, but it has been downhill since EPI......

And i do not believe for a second that it will reach 450 (in us). No chance.

However, 750-800 worldwide aint a bad guess.

[KaMiKaZi]

Yes, but it has been downhill since EPI......

And i do not believe for a second that it will reach 450 (in us). No chance.

However, 750-800 worldwide aint a bad guess.



Are you sure? I'm pretty sure that AOTC did better than TPM. But anyways the tides can turn.

[Tornado]

Are you sure? I'm pretty sure that AOTC did better than TPM. But anyways the tides can turn.

No, TPM did better than AOTC.

TPM - $431,065,444 Domestically, $922,379,000 Worldwide

AOTC - $310,675,583 Domestically, $648,200,000 Worldwide

Anyways, since this is the return of the Darth Vader, the last Star Wars film (possibly), and this film looks VERY good, then I think it will make:

$350 million Domestically, $750 million Worldwide

[Scimitar]

The new box-office predictions for the film have come out. Although nothing on the UK gross, it does have a very good prediction for the film.

With STANDARD marketing, $650,000 - $750,000 million
With CONVENTIONAL marketing, $700,000 - $900,000 million
With ABOVE-AVERAGE marketing, $750,000 - $1,000,000 million
With IDEAL marketing, $750,000 - $1,500,000 million

I guess by ideal, it means good ratings, good movie, great commericialisation, lots of products advertising the film, etc. Still is a high prediction, but the 1.5 billion is probably just a matchbox of the grossing - it can go up to 1.5 billion.

I personally think the film will fall around $850,000 million, but it can very well go over into the billion mark if done correctly.

[adt100]

We know it will make a load of money simply because it's the last SW film, so I'd guess worldwide a figure of between $700-800m. Where it ends up wthin this region depends largey on how good/bad it is. Even, it's it were to turn out to be a turkey I'd expect figures reaching the $700m mark.

I don't think it really has any chance of breaking the $1b mark, unless it turned out to be an absolutely amazing film, acclaimed by critics and regular film-goers alike. We all knmow that the SW fans will see it in their droves, and numerous times, but it has to reach a wider appeal than that.

After the relatively dissappointing prequels, many regular film-goers have less than our high hopes for the films, and I think they have gone down the specific kids/geeks road, rather than appealing to a wide range of audiences, a necessity if they are to achieve such huge figures.

[Mr. Blonde1]

Domestic- 365 Million
Worldwide- 750 Million

[Scimitar]

I don't think it really has any chance of breaking the $1b mark, unless it turned out to be an absolutely amazing film, acclaimed by critics and regular film-goers alike. We all knmow that the SW fans will see it in their droves, and numerous times, but it has to reach a wider appeal than that.

After the relatively dissappointing prequels, many regular film-goers have less than our high hopes for the films, and I think they have gone down the specific kids/geeks road, rather than appealing to a wide range of audiences, a necessity if they are to achieve such huge figures.
What you should realise is that this dissapointment with the films is a relatively US thing, and it's glamorised by the press.

The harsh brutal truth is, on a global scale, the PT are more enjoyed and viewed than the original trilogy, and are more popular. This is because the SW PT films are relatively the same as similar films in these other nations, and whilst we assume they're disliked, there are many who enjoy them to bits, and will definately go see the latest and final installment.

Need i remind you that the UK box office was broken with Episode II, and than the film recieved an increase in multiple viewings when compared to the other episodes. This is why Lucas doesn't really care for these stupid reviewers and fans who complain - quite selfishly, they think for themselves, and they ignore the film has to connect to the mass audience, rather than just the fan base.

The prequels are more popular, recieve more acclaim, and are more enjoyed than the original trilogy, when you take the whole world into account. For whatever reason, westerners (both fanbase and critics) think the film is made just for them - it's not.

With Lucas obviously giving into the temptation to completely hype this film up like he did with Episode I, and giving into the pressures the Lord of the Rings films have made on film quality, Episode III is one of the most important productions ever made. If done right, it will motivate more sales for the OT (remember that some audiences and some countries haven't seen the OT, and are building up to it), but more importantly, it will make the film a HUGE success.

[adt100]

What you should realise is that this dissapointment with the films is a relatively US thing, and it's glamorised by the press.

The harsh brutal truth is, on a global scale, the PT are more enjoyed and viewed than the original trilogy, and are more popular. This is because the SW PT films are relatively the same as similar films in these other nations, and whilst we assume they're disliked, there are many who enjoy them to bits, and will definately go see the latest and final installment.

Need i remind you that the UK box office was broken with Episode II, and than the film recieved an increase in multiple viewings when compared to the other episodes. This is why Lucas doesn't really care for these stupid reviewers and fans who complain - quite selfishly, they think for themselves, and they ignore the film has to connect to the mass audience, rather than just the fan base.

The prequels are more popular, recieve more acclaim, and are more enjoyed than the original trilogy, when you take the whole world into account. For whatever reason, westerners (both fanbase and critics) think the film is made just for them - it's not.

With Lucas obviously giving into the temptation to completely hype this film up like he did with Episode I, and giving into the pressures the Lord of the Rings films have made on film quality, Episode III is one of the most important productions ever made. If done right, it will motivate more sales for the OT (remember that some audiences and some countries haven't seen the OT, and are building up to it), but more importantly, it will make the film a HUGE success.

I don't agree with that assessment at all.

If you want to look purely at figures (which can of course be deceptive) then the UK box office shows the following -

8th Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999) £51,063,811
13th Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002) £37,539,932

In the USA TPM is 5th and ATOC 17th on the domestic 'all-time' chart so the idea that only in the US are fans disappointed is definitely not correct.

You state that the PT are both 'more viewed' and 'more enjoyed'. More enjoyed is a subjective term, and therefore hard to accurately quantify, however, I have yet to hear of any significant number of critics or fans over here in the UK that actually prefer the PT to the OT. You could argue that young kids brought up on the CGI fests and who know little of the OT would enjoy the new films more, but that's about it. As for more viewed, that is certainly not correct. While I always take inflation adjusted figures with a certain scepticism, they are certainly a more accurate portrayal of the sheer number of people going to the cinema to see the films. In the case of SW, ANH, ESB and ROTJ are 2nd, 12th and 14th respectively in the all-time list. TPM and ATOC are 19th and 80th.

The idea that in any country the PT are more critically acclaimed than the OT is utterly risable.

The fact is that the PT more than the OT dodn't connect as much with the regular audience, and it is far more the hardcore 'fans' that lap up the PT. They are the ones that see the film multiple times and hence make Lucas the money, so he should care to some extent what they think.

Episode III is one of the most important productions ever made

That's the kind of line I expect Lucas keeps telling himself, but the reality is very different.

[Scimitar]

I also said "Western" audiences, not just US.

I don't like your tone, so i'll keep this brief. AOTC surpisingly got rave reviews internationally, be it the different dubs internationally, or different style of marketing. It clicked in Asia atleast.

For some reason the average US reveiw for AOTC was 3 stars, but in the UK it was between 4 - 5 stars. Explain this then.

Anyway, i don't care if most the people on this whole site hate Episode III - it's a popcorn film at the end of the day, like all 5 other films, and if it's a good one, so be it. I will still get a kick out of it at the end of the day, and be it a great film, will treasure it enternally.

Yes, i'm being selfish. If i like the film, i don't really care what others think. My view is my own, and i won't be affected by media slants trying to make me think otherwise. Stupid users and members on all internet communities try to make you think their way, and people fall for it - the STAR WARS community fell for it.

Episode I is a good film ON IT'S OWN - it was everything it was meant to be, and more. It's a real shame people ruined STAR WARS because of their ignorant and selfish views, in the media. They scarred it for life, and hopefully Episode III will set it all right. Lucas wants to prove the press wrong - it's something i gather from his interviews and stuff on Episode III. Hopefully he does.

And although not completely relevant, all these "Lucas should die/No more prequels/You ruined the OT" comments = No Original Version DVD release. It doesn't affect me, and i hope he never releases them, and doesn't give the rights in his will.

Unfortunately for the people who liked the PT and want the original version, that's the fan base's punishment and is heavily generalised.

[KaMiKaZi]

Scimitar, adt100 has a tatse for making bad comments on films that are not LOTR. He has done this both with the Matrix and Spiderman.

Scimitar i agree with you completely. The prequals may have not been accepted by a miniority of a few of which most may be from the US. And i mean a few and this is Exploited by the media. However here in Australia, it has been regardly accepted as being a very popular new starwars film. The reason why people may not like it because it differs from the OT, in terms of FX and visualization. Of course it will be different because its been like 20 yrs from the previous trilogy and it is a PREQUAL. And usually CHANGE will be hard to accept. However if the prequals were to be created in the same way as the OT then those of the few who complain about it now will also complain of how its just a carbon copy of the OT. You see people like adt100 will always find something to complain about. And obviously adt100 is not a fan and is one of those few who like to mumble about films that he doesn't like. As you can see the prequals have proven to be very popular, after all when its starwars its always BIG news news. Oh n just to let u know AOTC has exceeded TPM in the Aust box office.

[adt100]

Yes, clearly I don't know what I'm talking about and make rash, unfounded comments with no evidence or coherent argument to support my claims. :rolleyes:

Not once have I brought the subject of other films/trilogies into these discussions (unless they are specifically being discussed as a point of the thread).

With regard the box office of the Matrix and Spiderman sequels I think I was proved to be pretty much accurate, you can find and post any contradictory threads if you wish. Concerning the Matrix sequels I think everyone now accepts the reality that thee simply weren't that good.

I am not some raving zealot, after all I have bought all the SW releases (DVD and VHS) and believe it or not, am seriously considering even buying the Matrix 10-disk set if the price is reasonable.

[adt100]

And obviously adt100 is not a fan and is one of those few who like to mumble about films that he doesn't like.

Believe it or not, you'll find that when it comes to determining box office, these are exactly the type of people that will determine a film's success. Not the obsessive fan who can see know wrong with 'their' beloved film.

The difference is that whether you accept it or not, THP and ATOC are not particularly 'good' films, they are actually pretty average on the whole. SW fans love them, the rest could take them or leave them. This is the true general opinion, and for every 'critical' review giving the film 4 stars, you'll see just as many and more listing it among the worst films of the year (which is also an opinion I don't agree with).

[neo5595]

My prediction is that Episode III will gross around $375-$400 million domestically and $800-$850 million worldwide. I definetly think this film will be the highest grossing movie of 2005 and might earn a spot in top 15 highest grossing movies of all time. I think other major films that will also be competing for the top spot of 2005 will be Batman Begins, The War of the Worlds, Fantastic Four, Cars, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, and King Kong. Because of all the hype this film is starting to recieve(and its awesome new Teaser Trailer), I predict it will gross around $30-$35 million on opening day and around $80-$90 million. As you can tell, I have very high hopes for this one. I think its gonna be great!

Predictions(in millions):
Domestic(U.S.)- $375-$400
Worldwide- $800-$850
Opening Day- $30-$35
Opening Weekend- $80-$90
Would most of you agree with me about my predictions for opening day and weekend?

[Tornado]

Yeah, that sounds fairly close.

[LordofKings]

For opening weekend - I would say Ep:3 in the Thursday-Sunday timeframe will make no less then 100 Million and as high up as 150 Million. That's just my opening weekend guess.

For long run - I say it as a GREAT chance of reaching 400 million in the US and 800+ million world wide.


Oh, and not to break the subject, but on the subject of people not excepting the change and how the PREQUELS differ from the OT - this is a good point. Many people have complained that the PT should be more like the OT.... NOW, lately many have been saying that Revenge of the Sith is looking too much like ROTJ. See what I mean? They complain when its different and wish it to be like the OT and then when it looks to be similiar - the COMPLAIN! You can't win with Star Wars fans.

Sorry for going off topic i just wanted to get that out there for my own sake

[neo5595]

For opening weekend - I would say Ep:3 in the Thursday-Sunday timeframe will make no less then 100 Million and as high up as 150 Million. That's just my opening weekend guess.

For long run - I say it as a GREAT chance of reaching 400 million in the US and 800+ million world wide.
Do you really think it could reach up to $150 million for opening weekend? Thats a little high, isnt it? If it reaches that, then it will surpass the current biggest opening weekend by $35 million! I would love to see it do hugely successfull, but I dont think it could reach that much.

[Sock-Man]

I'm not gonna predict any figures, but I think ROTS will pull in around the same as TPM. TPM was the first star wars film in 20 years and there were high expectations. There was also the awesome advertising campaign, the amazing teaser, Darth Maul, etc.. so it brought in alot.

I think the drop for AOTC was the result of the disappointment that TPM was, the fact that no one had a clue what it was about and the horrible love story advertising scheme..

But for ROTS, the one thing that's gona pull alot of people in is obvious. Darth Vader. So the takings will undoubtedly shoot up.

[Scimitar]

To make sure this film is as commercially successful as TPM, Fox and LFL are advertising Vader to the extreme. So much so, Lucas filmed more Darth Vader footage in August, so that audiences wouldn't feel cheated by how Vader isn't actually a central character but is advertised so much.

Vader originally only have like 10 minutes of screen-time, but now it's been boosted between 15 - 20 minutes.

[LordofKings]

^^^NOt from what I have heard. JEDITHEWHITE and others of Hyperspace have said and even posted a clip of GL saying that Vader is only in the film for 2 minutes. Where did you hear 15-20? Don't get me wrong - I would f**king LOVE him to be in the film at least 10 minutes - but in fact I think 10-15 should be the max. Not 20. I think 10 minutes is perfect. I do however want to see VADER in his suit killing at least 1 Jedi, even though thats not going to happen. The reason is I always felt VADER was shown as not that powerful in the OT. I just wanted to see him whoop some Jedi ass while he is in the suit to show how powerful he still is in the suit - But i guess its good that we don't see that to show how powerful he could have been if he hadn't gotten hurt and put in the suit.

[Mr. Blonde1]

To make sure this film is as commercially successful as TPM, Fox and LFL are advertising Vader to the extreme. So much so, Lucas filmed more Darth Vader footage in August, so that audiences wouldn't feel cheated by how Vader isn't actually a central character but is advertised so much.

Vader originally only have like 10 minutes of screen-time, but now it's been boosted between 15 - 20 minutes.

hmmmm... Sounds like JPdill has returned. ;)

[spiderman_2k]

Sounded like that from Scimitar's first post...;)

[Mr. Blonde1]

Yeah I noticed that. But I kept my mouth shut until he made a few more posts in this thread. Scimitar does remind me of jpdill. hmmmmmmm

[fineus fog]

I think this movie will draw a huge amount of money BUT I agree with the person (adt I think??) who said that this needs to be critically acclaimed as much as fan acclaimed for it to truly surpass say Titanic at the box office - the reason why Titanic was so successful was its very (and I do mean very) wide appeal, whereas films like SW, LOTR etc have a slightly to the general public "geekiness" and general veiwers are put off by that.
As long as they market it on Vader they are almost guaranteed a bigger slice of the Box Office pie.

[KaMiKaZi]

Believe it or not, you'll find that when it comes to determining box office, these are exactly the type of people that will determine a film's success. Not the obsessive fan who can see know wrong with 'their' beloved film.

The difference is that whether you accept it or not, THP and ATOC are not particularly 'good' films, they are actually pretty average on the whole. SW fans love them, the rest could take them or leave them. This is the true general opinion, and for every 'critical' review giving the film 4 stars, you'll see just as many and more listing it among the worst films of the year (which is also an opinion I don't agree with).


Thinking that THP and AOTC are not particularly good films may be ur opinion but i disagree, I believe that they are good films and are above average. Yes i agree that if the reviews for the films were better than they could have made that much more at the BOX office. However i don't always agree with the reviews as they are most of the time biased. But i am confident that EP3 will surpass the previous two at the Box Office.

[neo5595]

Do you really think Epi. III can surpass TPM? TPM made over $430 million in the U.S. boxoffice. Its the 5th highest grossing movie of all time in the U.S. It be really difficult for Epi. III to surpass that.

[LordofKings]

I am amazed at how TPM made 430 or so million in the US. Is anyone else? The reason I am surprised is because it is "supposedly" so widely disliked. It only made I believe around 60 or so million on its opening weekend (anyone have the exact number). So, only a movie highly accepted and liked grosses over 400 million, correct? How often do you see movies slamed by critics, like TPM, make 400 million. Only rare movies do that, and they have to be hugely popular and PRAISED by Critics.

Thats why I am shocked. With such a "bad word of mouth" on the film, it still made over 400 million in the US meaning many people went to see it more then once and I guess other factors counted into it. Then, AOTC is "widely considered" by fans and critics alike as being leagues, or somewhat better then TPM and it made a considerable amount of less money.

I do think ROTS will make 350 million regardless of the reviews in the UN. They can call it the worst film of all time and it will still make this mark I think. NOW, if the reviews are good and they say this is equal to say ESB or ROTJ, then I think 400 million is a guareentee or a HIGH PROBABLITY. Thats just my high hopes and high thinking.

[neo5595]

TPM did so well because imagine 20 years later and the new Star Wars film comes out. Plus and it made $64.8 million for opening weekend.

[LordofKings]

BUt still.... 400+ millions MEANS LASTING POWER.... Means people are seeing the film over and over again and bring friends with them.

Even if it was a 20 year wait... I say the 20 year wait guarenteed the film 350+ million, but 430... Many people think these films are so wildly hated, but if you look at their box office numbers, THEY CAN'T BE. No films that gross that much are as hated as people, esp on these boards, make them seem to be.

[todd philip]

875 Million worldwide!

[Aldo]

Episode III is the LAST Star Wars movie. The circle will be complete: this is the union between the two trilogies. I think Ep. III will make a lot more then Ep. II which was a flop compared to the other SW movies. That was an exception: Ep. III has an amazing plot; you cannot compare TPM's plot with this. Ep. I grossed so much for the original trilogy's beauty and not for itself (not a bad movie though); Ep. III will be surely better: the movie could be the best of the entire saga. Every step of the production is followed by millions of fans over the world. The teaser trailer is AMAZING. I'm sure that this movie will make a lot of money (435 millions in the US).

[Scimitar]

Yeah I noticed that. But I kept my mouth shut until he made a few more posts in this thread. Scimitar does remind me of jpdill. hmmmmmmm
Unfortunately i didn't disccover the boards until months after her removal. Yet, i beg to ask, what is it about how i articulate my language that is so "similar" to the slimy-witty-slug known as jpdill.

[vader519]

I believe it will go over 450 million, because this is it. The last star wars movie, and just from the trailer alone, I think people are excited to see it. It will be the darkest of the films. As for it beating titanic, it is going to really hard and I have to agree with you, it has to be critcally acclamied fro people whoa re not star wars fans to see it.

[adt100]

No films that gross that much are as hated as people, esp on these boards, make them seem to be.

The viewing public can be a strange and fickle bunch. Titanic anyone?

[adt100]

I think the "this is the last film" argument only hold so much water. Yes, it means SW fans will see it many times to boost the figures, but to those that are not that bothered by all the fuss, and have not gone out in their droves to see TPM and ATOC, it will make little difference. After all, for the "last part" notion to be a powerful effect in box office figures, non-SW people (ie the general audience) will have to really have seen and enjoyed parts 1 and 2. You're certainly not going to get repeat viewings from such sections of the audience for it being a standalone film IMO.

As for any talk of Titanic type figures, forget it. The appeal of the SW films is simply too narrow to gain that kind of support, however good or bad ROTS turns out to be. I'm sure we'll see plenty more of these threads over the next 6 months, just as we have with many other highly anticpiated films of recent years.

[Mr. Blonde1]

Unfortunately i didn't disccover the boards until months after her removal. Yet, i beg to ask, what is it about how i articulate my language that is so "similar" to the slimy-witty-slug known as jpdill.

Funny how you both listed June 7th as your birthday. What are the odds?

[Scimitar]

Meh.

[Miasma]

I think it will fare somewhere between TPM and AOTC. TPM got a huge boost in sales because it was "the long awaited new Star Wars movie!", and everyone expected it to bring back the feeling they had when they first saw "Star Wars" in 1977. The bad reviews weren't going to convince people to stay away after they waited so long (and besides, most people figured, it's Star Wars... how could it be bad?) Unfortunately, it WAS bad by most people's standards, and this hurt AOTC sales. When AOTC opened a lot of people no longer thought, "Woo-hoo! Another Star Wars!" they thought, "uh oh, a sequel to TPM." Of course diehard fans were ecstatic anyway, and most of the reviews were a bit more favorable, so it still made decent money, but I have several friends who were thrilled when TPM came out, and didn't even bother going to see AOTC. ROTS, however, should do a bit better, largely because of Darth Vader. A few of my friends who didn't bother with AOTC were excited to see Vader and hear the wookies in the new trailer ("now THIS looks more like a Star Wars movie," one of them said.) And, of course, for the diehard fans, this movie will continue the duel that they've waited over twenty years to see-- you know they'll be going multiple times. So, in the end, it will do better than Clones, but the damage done to the Star Wars name by TPM and AOTC will make it hard for it to do as well as TPM.

[spiderman_2k]

Unfortunately i didn't disccover the boards until months after her removal. Yet, i beg to ask, what is it about how i articulate my language that is so "similar" to the slimy-witty-slug known as jpdill.

Give it up.

[Scimitar]

Give what up?!? I'm so confused.

[spiderman_2k]

It's too easy, im not going to bother.

[Scimitar]

As i have absolutely no idea what the hell you're on about, we'll just leave it at that.

[Mr. Blonde1]

...and we have absolutely no idea why you keep coming back. You have been banned at least 3 times. You were banned for a reason. You should respect the mods wishes and just stay away.

Another thing I find funny is how in another thread you asked what happened to Jpdill and why "she" was banned. You think your some kind of legend around here. Good job promoting your huge ego. :rolleyes:

[neo5595]

You know, I noticed that too Blonde, I thought it was a little akward at the time. But now it makes sense.

[spiderman_2k]

You were banned for a reason. You should respect the mods wishes and just stay away.

No chance, it's too obvious it's him now.

[Glordreen]

you guys predicting it to make 400mil or more are insane!

Look at the drop between Phantom Menace and Attock of the Clones
TPM- 431mil
AOTC- 310

That is a 121mil drop. That is huge! People are realizing that the new SW's are not as good as the old ones. Also sequals hardly ever do better than predecessors. Look at Spiderman 2, it was 2 times as good as the first but made about 30mil less than it. Rvenge of the Sith will not make over 350mil, it will make just over AOTC numbers only because its the last Star Wars.

I predict 300-315mil.

[neo5595]

I highly doubt it will make that little. And btw, am I the only one who thought Spider-man 2 was trash?

[adt100]

No, but I recall how before the release of that film that everyone was saying how great it was and was bound to gross more than Spiderman and comfortably break the $400m mark. :rolleyes:

[Scimitar]

It didn't. But that was down to reviews.

Good reviews and good hype = good figures.

If it's a good film, both critically and for the audience, then it'll make $400 million.

[Glordreen]

It didn't. But that was down to reviews.

Good reviews and good hype = good figures.

If it's a good film, both critically and for the audience, then it'll make $400 million.




Which it wont.

Also, are you saying Spiderman 2 did not get good reviews? It is one of the most critically acclaimed movies of the year.

[Scimitar]

You gimp.

I said if it gets good reviews, it'll get good figures. Anyone with half-a-brain can see i was implying Spiderman had good reviews, so got good figures.

[adt100]

My point was in reference to the vast amount of hype that 3 films in particular over the last years or so have garnered - The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions, The Passion of the Christ, and Spiderman 2. All were accompanied by a huge amount of hype and press attention, and there were numerous threads on these boards from hardcore fans to general movie goers alike saying how these films would 'smash' box office records, break $400 domestically, even challenge Titanic etc.

All did very well at the B.O. and the latter 2 films received generally very good reviews, but none made quite the spectacular grosses that many expected. I think the same is the case with ROTS. It will likely gross more than ATOC but less than TPM.

[carnage4u]

it will make a buck two eighty at least.

[neo5595]

it will make a buck two eighty at least.
??? :confused: ???

Do you mean 280 million?

[Glordreen]

My point was in reference to the vast amount of hype that 3 films in particular over the last years or so have garnered - The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions, The Passion of the Christ, and Spiderman 2.

All did very well at the B.O., but none made quite the spectacular grosses that many expected.


uhhhhhhh, no one expected The Passion to make as much as it did. No one. Therefore it exceeded expectations.

[adt100]

uhhhhhhh, no one expected The Passion to make as much as it did. No one. Therefore it exceeded expectations.

I realise that, but my point is that the films I mentioned were all accompanied by a huge amount of hype, and very early on their was talk about smashing box office records worldwide, even challenging Titanic's gross for example. All these films clearly fell comfortably short of this though, especially in countries outside of the USA.

[KaMiKaZi]

I realise that, but my point is that the films I mentioned were all accompanied by a huge amount of hype, and very early on their was talk about smashing box office records worldwide, even challenging Titanic's gross for example. All these films clearly fell comfortably short of this though, especially in countries outside of the USA.


:rolleyes:
Thats funny i don't remember The Passion of The Christ having any so called "hype". However i do remember it being criticised by church pastors and having bad reviews, yet it made so much.

[neo5595]

Just lay off him, guys. All of you should get the point hes trying to make by now.

[neo5595]

I though it might be o.k. to bump this thread up. I'd also like to revise my orginal predictions. After seeing all the tremendous reviews, and the hype building up even more, Im raising everything.

My revised predictions(in millions):
Domestic(U.S.)- $400-$450
Worldwide- $900-$1000
Opening Day- $40-$50
Opening Weekend- $100-$120


Now I know most of you will think that my new predictions are freakishly high. I think this movie is gonna do some big buisness.

[neo5595]

Which it wont.
ahhhh......and very wrong you are.

[tiamat1990]

i wouldn't be surprised if this beat LOTR: ROTK, which is the 2nd highest grossing film, 1st is titanic and 3rd is Harry potter PS/SS

[KaMiKaZi]

i wouldn't be surprised if this beat LOTR: ROTK, which is the 2nd highest grossing film, 1st is titanic and 3rd is Harry potter PS/SS


And after all good reviews that it has received so far, I wouldn't be surprised either. But I really do hope ROTS beats the previous 2 prequels.

[Spirited Away]

I think this film will either do extremely well, and become the 3rd/2nd highest grossing film worldwide.

Or, it'll do just under TPM.

[halo]

The only B.O. figures I follow (and know anything about) is worldwide, so I'd guess maybe $750-$800m.

[urnothinglikeme]

you guys must be silly saying it will gross 375 milliion

[fantasticfour40]

It will gross more than Titanic

[Spirited Away]

It will not make more than $1.8 billion. Nothing will beat Titanic.

[Chiakier]

The first two films were only rubbish to geeky fanboys who have hangups.

[Fanible]

It will gross more than Titanic

600 million domesticly, and 1.8 billion world wide.

No movie ever has come close to beating the Titanic, or even come close to matching it. There is no way Episode III will beat the Titanic, not even remotely.


The first two films were only rubbish to geeky fanboys who have hangups.

Are you serious? The first two only made money because of those 'geeky fanboys'. That's why Episode 2 held any water after the disappointment of the first.

And most of the people on here will even tell how how bad the first two were, even if we for the most part enjoy parts of them anyway.

[Fanible]

--

[Spirited Away]

Are you serious? The first two only made money because of those 'geeky fanboys'. That's why Episode 2 held any water after the disappointment of the first. And most of the people on here will even tell how how bad the first two were, even if we for the most part enjoy parts of them anyway.
General audiences don't disect movies into pieces like fanboys do. If they did, films like Reloaded, XXX, Hitch, Resident Evil, etc. wouldn't do that well.

And surprise, surprise, people came out on AOTC liking it. Just like Matrix Reloaded. And XXX, Hitch, Resident Evil, etc. And they all did very well.

The net community is a bias sample of movie goers. It's not a fair representation.

[vader519]

tiamat1990, you are wrong about the highest grossing movies. I will give you the top 20. I really believe that ROTS can beat TPM, and gross between 432-440 million.

Rank Film Title Release Date Domestic Gross
1 Titanic 12/19/97 $600,788,188
2 Star Wars 5/25/77 $460,998,007
3 Shrek 2 5/19/04 $441,226,247
4 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial 6/11/82 $435,110,554
5 Star Wars: Episode I — The Phantom Menace 5/19/99 $431,088,301
6 Spider-Man 5/3/02 $403,706,375
7 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 12/17/03 $377,027,325
8 Spider-Man 2 6/30/04 $373,585,825
9 The Passion of the Christ 2/25/04 $370,782,930
10 Jurassic Park 6/11/93 $357,067,947
11 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 12/18/02 $341,786,758
12 Finding Nemo 5/30/03 $339,714,978
13 Forrest Gump 7/6/94 $329,694,499
14 The Lion King 6/15/94 $328,541,776
15 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 11/16/01 $317,575,550
16 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 12/19/01 $314,776,170
17 Star Wars: Episode II — Attack of the Clones 5/16/02 $310,676,740
18 Return of the Jedi 5/25/83 $309,306,177
19 Independence Day 7/3/96 $306,169,268
20 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 7/9/03 $305,413,918
22*The Empire Strikes Back 5/21/80 $290,475,067

[Spirited Away]

tiamat1990, you are wrong about the highest grossing movies. I will give you the top 20. I really believe that ROTS can beat TPM, and gross between 432-440 million.
Not to be mean, but you yanks really need to stop thinking your "domestic" box office is everything. More people watch these films OUTSIDE of the USA. It's just that because the US price of a cinema ticket is higher than most other countries, in the USA domestic is valuable.

For example, it costs $10 to watch SW in the USA, but in India it's only $0.20.

So if a film makes $5 million one week in the USA, approx. 500, 000 people saw the film. If a film makes $5 million in India, 25 million saw it in India. You see my point?

Anyway, he was talking global box office. Titanic is 1, then ROTK at 2, and then Harry Potter at 3.

[Fanible]

Not to be mean, but you yanks really need to stop thinking your "domestic" box office is everything. More people watch these films OUTSIDE of the USA. It's just that because the US price of a cinema ticket is higher than most other countries, in the USA domestic is valuable.

For example, it costs $10 to watch SW in the USA, but in India it's only $0.20.

So if a film makes $5 million one week in the USA, approx. 500, 000 people saw the film. If a film makes $5 million in India, 25 million saw it in India. You see my point?

Anyway, he was talking global box office. Titanic is 1, then ROTK at 2, and then Harry Potter at 3.

Not that all that babble was needed as it was probably just a mistake.

But yes vader, tiamat was referring to the World Wide box office grosses. Titanic has 1.8 billion, ROTK has 1.1 billion, and Sorcerer's Stone has about 1 billion.

Star Wars Episode 1 has 925mil world wide. I seriously doubt Episode 3 will garner this much, nor do I think it will pass Episode 1's over 400mil gross. While I'll give the fact that this movie is quite anticipated because it's the last of the Saga, it doesn't change the fact that Episode 1 was far more anticipated because it was the first Star Wars movie since the OT.

And yes, I'm also thinking about the new generation of fans as well, and I still don't think it surpasses Episode 1's sum.

[Glordreen]

It will gross more than Titanic

While I would like to see that, no no no no no! Impossible.


Domestic- 340mil
Worldwide- 790mil

[Ramplate]

let's just say a butt load

[fantasticfour40]

I believe that Episode 3 will beat Episode I and IV but not Titanic.

[vader519]

Then I would like to say sorry to everyone on the board and tiamat1990, I did not know he was taling about the world wide box office. It was not specified in his post, so I did not know. Really, I do not think just about the domestic box office, but I also think about the world wide box office. I think when you are taling about any movie and where their box office rank is, the world wide needs to be included, not just domestic.

[darthspielberg]

It will be the best selling Star Wars movie, but it won't beat LOTR and Titanic.

[Sparta*]

I'm thinking it'll make between 330-360 million domestic

[insaneMoViEgoer]

what about opening weekend? you think it could beat the record?

[Sparta*]

whats the currect record and for what movie?

[insaneMoViEgoer]

Spiderman with $114,844,116

[Sparta*]

Whoa!! I dunno if it will beat that...I think it'll get pretty close though....lets say 90 mill.

[Nimrandir]

Spiderman with $114,844,116
I still am amazed at that. It was not a great movie. Enjoyable, yes, long awaited, yes; but not merriting of Epic stature.

[Fanible]

I still am amazed at that. It was not a great movie. Enjoyable, yes, long awaited, yes; but not merriting of Epic stature.

Spider-Man definitly is a movie that has boggled my mind. Titanic too with it's total grosses.

I didn't realise how many people were anticipating Spider-Man so much when I arrived at the theatre opening weekend and there was three seperate long lines waiting outside each of their theatres to be opened to the next audience.

[Sparta*]

I really don't see whats so special about Titanic......and why it holds the #1 highest ranking movie of all time title......I guess part of the reason is because it appealed to both genders and to all ages...while starwars may moreso appeal to males...and younger females.

[Fanible]

I thought it was a good movie. It was well made and had a clever story, and was plenty intense at times.

But yes, it's still a mystery to me why it made so much. Something about it, our country and the world over, was so mesmorising to girls, young women and women that they'd see it over and over again, and then drag their men and dates to it as well. That was the core of it anyway. That, atleast, is the common logic everyone has for it, that simply so many people kept seeing it over and over again.

That and it continued to make money after it won the Oscars and continued to make more money, and more people started seeing it to see what it was all about. Just like a chain reaction effect.

Despite all this, though, it still boggles your mind. 600mil domestic and 1.8billion world wide is insane to think about. No other movie has ever come close. It's insane to think that even without Titanic's domestic grosses, it STILL outgrosses the second highest grossing movie in the world wide box office.

[vader519]

I do thin it can beat the Spiderman opening weekend record. One thing going in Star Wars favor is that ther are thousands of midnight screenings. Spiderman really did not have that many midnight showings. I know they did not have any where I live.

[neo5595]

3,700 screens. This doesnt surprise me.



MAY 19

Title (Distributor) / Theater Count (Change) / Week #

Revenge of the Sith (Fox) / 3,700

- Should the estimate hold, it would be the 10th widest release
ever.

- Attack of the Clones / 3,161 theaters
Opening Day: $30,141,471 (on a Thurs.)
Four-day bow: $110,169,231

- The Phantom Menace / 2,970 theaters
Opening Day: $28,542,349 (on a Wed.)
Five-day bow: $105,661,237

Revenge of the Sith will have a global launch next weekend, playing
everywhere except Japan and South Korea.

[Sparta*]

WWHHAAT??? AOTC and TPM made around 30 million on opening day, but Spiderman made 114 million? How is that even possible??

[neo5595]

no no no no. Spider-man made 114 million on its opening weekend, not opening day.

[eclipsedman]

Spiderman made that much over the weekend, not in a single day.

[insaneMoViEgoer]

114mil was opening weekend, friday - saturday. dont worry, i think ROTS chances are good. there is alot of anticipation plus all the good reviews

[Sparta*]

hmmmm well how much did spiderman make opening day then? I think ROTS will probably beat it. There is jsut to much hype for this movie, and lots of good word of mouth publicity.

[beyond_th3]

I predict that ROTS will beat The matrix reloaded thursday record for sure, and based on all the marketing and literally every channel I turn to is a star wars tv spot or commercial, I would say that it would probably beat spidey weekend record but like all blockbusters will die down before it could dethrone titanic.

[Glordreen]

It will be the best selling Star Wars movie, but it won't beat LOTR and Titanic.


To be the best selling Star Wars it would have to beat LOTR.

If you are talking worldwide than thats another story.

[Fanible]

I do thin it can beat the Spiderman opening weekend record. One thing going in Star Wars favor is that ther are thousands of midnight screenings. Spiderman really did not have that many midnight showings. I know they did not have any where I live.

I suppose I'd rather have Star Wars for a record like that instead of Spider-Man.

If word of mouth stays on track being as good as it's been, Episode 3 should still make a fantastic sum.

[darthspielberg]

To be the best selling Star Wars it would have to beat LOTR.

If you are talking worldwide than thats another story.

I was, but you are right. In the USA, that is absolutley true. :)

[KaMiKaZi]

To be the best selling Star Wars it would have to beat LOTR.

If you are talking worldwide than thats another story.


Mate what are you going on about. ROTS doesn't have to beat LOTR to be the best Starwars in the B.O. All it has to do is beat the previous two. Besides Starwars has already beaten LOTR in the B.O. domestically anyway.

[vader519]

In order for ROTS to be the best and highest grossing Star Wars movies, it has to beat the original moive Episode 4 ANH. Now that is just domestically, I do not know about world wide.

[Spirited Away]

In the more important Worldwide Box Office chart, it needs to beat TPM of $925 million, which would make it Number 5 worldwide.

[halo]

I've never understood all the fuss about the USA box office myself. Surely it all makes it's way to the same studio bank account?

[vader519]

Actaully 20th Century Fox does not make one dime from any of the star wars movies. The only money the studio gets is the distrubtion fee for distrubting the movie. So if ROTS make about $440 million, that $440 million all belongs to Geroge Lucas, since he owns all the rights to Star Wars.

[Spirited Away]

no 12% goes to Fox.

[adt100]

$767.2m worldwide at present, almost dead in between TPM and AOTC. Anyone now willing to bet that it will break past the $800m mark? ;)

[Tornado]

$350 million Domestically, $750 million Worldwide

These were my predictions from 11-06-2004, 07:16 AM (Central Time). I think I did pretty well. http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y202/theanomaly2/b59f9f0c.gif

[LordofKings]

how much did TPM have in the same amount of days that ROTS has been out? Can that be found? I'm too lazy too look.

[vader519]

At this point TPM made $389,553,609. ROTS has made $372,222,826. So it has fallen off pace, but it is in the top 10 movies of all time.

[Morphius DOH]

I haven't seen the recent weekly earnings, but that's only 17Mil, so any predictions on how long it'll take at its current earnings rate?

[vader519]

Well I really do not think ROTS will pass $400 million. It is making about $4 million every week, and has new movies com out each week, it is taken off more screens. Right now it average intake each day is about $300,000 each day.