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The Weekend Warrior Archives
Completely exhausted from this week's ShoWest Convention but wanted to get in a last minute update, even if theater counts aren't that different from earlier in the week. Apparently, the new The Incredible Hulk trailer is debuting with Neil Marshall's Doomsday and is being advertised as such, and while that might account for some of the movie's business this weekend, it's still not looking like the strongest new movie of the weekend. Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro is losing a significant amount of theaters this weekend and is likely to drop dramatically for the second weekend in a row.
Updated Predictions -
1. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) - $48.3 million N/A (same)
2. 10,000 BC (Warner Bros.) - $14.2 million -61% (+ .6 million)
3. College Road Trip (Disney) - $7.9 million -42% (same)
4. Never Back Down (Summit) - $7.4 million N/A (+ .5 million)
5. Doomsday (Universal) - $5.9 million N/A (+ .3 million)
6. Vantage Point (Sony) - $4.2 million -43% (- .2 million)
7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million -42% (+ .1 million)
8. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $2.7 million -53% (- .2 million)
9. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $2.4 million -48% (same)
10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.3 million -43% (+ .1 million)
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we planned a somewhat streamlined column to allow the Warrior to cover ShoWest in Las Vegas, but the world of Hollywood doesn't stop just because the Warrior is partying working away from home base, and this weekend sees one more chance for the box office to rebound after a number of bad weeks with disappointing showings.
The last hope of the winter/spring season might be the animated Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) featuring the voices of Jim Carrey and Steve Carell--reunited for the first time since facing off in Bruce Almighty--and the combination of their talent with the popular source material, a desirable G-Rating and the lack of strong kid and family material currently in theaters should make this another significant hit from the makers of the Ice Age movies. $40 million should be a foregone conclusion, and it's likely to push its way to $50 million, though it might be hard for it to do much more than that this weekend. One can expect it will make a lot of money over the next few weeks, especially with schools out for spring break and the long Easter weekend approaching.
For the young guys trying to catch something that might wash the sour taste of 10,000 BC out of their palates, there'll be two choices, the martial arts action-drama Never Back Down (Summit Entertainment) and Neil (The Descent) Marshall's third film, the apocalyptic action thriller Doomsday (Universal Pictures), which should split up audiences, although the lack of star power should keep either from making more than $7 million over the weekend, even if that's enough to get at least one of them into the Top 5.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 14 - 16" »
Once again, there are very few changes in the last few days to my earlier predictions although Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B. C. is not getting the over 3,500 theaters I expected, even though the buzz on the movie and the strong ad campaign should bring in enough curious young moviegoers to bring in $40 million this weekend even if its heavily frontloaded to Friday. Everything else is pretty much the same with Martin Lawrence's family comedy College Road Trip probably doing better than anyone expects and Jason Statham's The Bank Job bombing.
Updated Predictions -
1. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) - $41.8 million N/A (down .5 million)
2. College Road Trip (Disney) - $20.3 million N/A (down .2 million)
3. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $7.8 million -48% (down .2 million)
4. Vantage Point (Sony) - $7.1 million -45% (same)
5. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $5.6 million (up .3 million and one spot)
6. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $5.4 million -38% (same but down one spot)
7. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $4.7 million -42% (same)
8. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $3.9 million -49% (down .2 million)
9. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $3.2 million -44%
10. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $2.7 million -40%
-- Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $1.8 million N/A
And after the jump, you can read my mini-review of 10,000 B.C..
Continue reading "WW Updated 3.6.08" »
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where a dismal end to the month of February leads to a more hopeful launch to the month of March with three new movies offering a wide variety of genres, star power and effects-laden action, something for everyone essentially, although Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) will probably take a big chunk of the younger male audience that want to see cavemen fighting mammoths and sabretooth tigers. Or at least that's the hopes of Warner Bros. who are taking a big chance by opening what would normally be a big-budget summer movie at the beginning of March.
Disney isn't taking nearly as big a chance by teaming Martin Lawrence and Raven-Symoné in the G-rated College Road Trip, which should continue their string of spring comedy hits, as it does better than Lawrence's last movie Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins in bringing in Lawrence's African-American fanbase but a lot more families as well due to its rating and the Disney label.
Last but not least, Jason Statham returns to his British crime-drama roots with The Bank Job (Lionsgate), a heist flick loosely based on a famous British bank robbery, but despite Statham's popularity with Crank and the "Transporter" movies, this probably won't have the same appeal to Statham's video game enthusiast audience, so it'll probably be more for older guys, and its moderate release might keep it somewhere in the middle of the Top 10.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 7 - 9" »
Nothing really worth noting although this looks like it will be another slow weekend with Will Ferrell's getting less theaters than we originally expected and the recent announcement of New Line merging with Warner Bros. might be an omen for how Time Warner thinks their big spring movie will do this weekend. Sony's period drama The Other Boleyn Girl and the romantic fantasy Penelope will probably do slightly better only because there's very little else to see but we probably can't expect anything too impressive from any of the movies.
Updated Predictions -
1. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $31.1 million N/A (down $1.6 million)
2. Vantage Point (Sony) - $13.0 million -44% (up .5 million)
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $8.9 million -32%
(same)
4. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $6.5 million -49% (up .1 million)
5. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $5.4 million N/A (up .5 million and one spot)
6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $5.2 million -46% (up .1 million, down 1 spot)
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) $3.8 million -11% (same)
8. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $3.7 million -44% (same)
9. Penelope (Summit) - $3.3 million N/A (up .4 million and one spot)
10. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $3.0 million -40% (down .2 million and one spot)
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where the month of February ends with an extra day thanks to Leap Year, and another guaranteed #1 movie as Will Ferrell takes on basketball in the '70s retro-comedy Semi-Pro (New Line) along with a great supporting cast including Woody Harrelson, Andre Benjamin, Maura Tierney, and Will Arnett. The key difference between this and other Ferrell comedies is that it's his first R-rated wide release since his breakout performance as Frank the Tank in Old School, which might keep some of Ferrell's younger teen fans from seeing it. Then again, Ferrell has plenty of 17 and older male fans who'll probably dig seeing him in this sort of sports vehicle. The question is whether his first movie for New Line since Elf, his biggest movie to date, will match or best his 2007 sports comedy Blades of Glory.
Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson co-star in the period drama The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) about two of the six wives of King Henry the VIII (here played by Eric Bana). Based on the popular book by Phillipa Gregory, its main appeal will be to women over 25, an audience who's fairly neglected right now, though only opening in just over a thousand theaters will keep it on the outskirts of the Top 5.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 29 - March 2" »
Not too much has changed since Tuesday, just a bit of reshuffling of the drop-offs from President's Day weekend, although it still looks like Charlie Bartlett and Larry the Cable Guy's Witless Protection will be fighting it out for bomb-o'-the-week with neither looking good to make it into the Top 10. There's definitely interest in Michel Gondry's Be Kind Rewind among young dudes, although opening in just 808 theaters could limit how far it might go and the Top 5 might be too high for it to reach. Sony's Vantage Point is still going to be well ahead of everything else on Friday and for the weekend, though it might have a significant drop-off on Sunday for the Oscars. Certainly, the lack of strong reviews won't help the movie do a huge amount of business this weekend but still bring in the curious.
Oh, one late addition: the concert movie U2 3D expands from 40 theaters to 678 theaters tomorrow, but it will still probably end up outside the Top 10 with roughly $2 million.
Updated Predictions -
1. Vantage Point (Sony) - $21.8 million N/A (up .5 million)
2. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $14.0 million -49% (down .1 million)
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $12.5 million -35% (up .7 million)
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $8.6 million -55% (down 1.1 million)
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $7.8 million -41% (up .1 million)
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $6.0 million -38% (same)
7. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $4.6 million -46% (down .3 million)
8. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) - $4.1 million N/A (up .3 million)
9. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $3.3 million -30% (up .1 mill.)
10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) -$2.8 million -39% (not listed on Tuesday)
11. Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $2.7 million N/A (up .2 million)
12. Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2.4 million N/A (down .1 million)
13 or 14. U2 3D (National Geographic) - $1.9 million 475% (not listed on Tuesday)
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we have a fairly easy no-brainer weekend with just one of the four new movies standing much of a chance at making it into the Top 5. Maybe that's because the ensemble thriller Vantage Point (Sony), starring the likes of Dennis Quaid, Matthew Fox and Forest Whitaker, is the only movie to be opening in more than 2,000 theatres. In fact, it's opening in over 3,000 theaters with a strong marketing campaign, which should leave it sitting pretty at the #1 spot come Sunday with very little competition from any of the other new or returning movies.
Possibly that's because all the rest of the new movies are opening in fewer than 1,500 theaters, and despite opening in nearly half that amount, Michel (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind) Gondry's new comedy Be Kind Rewind (New Line), starring Jack Black and Mos Def, should fare the best among them as it appeals to a hip young audience looking for quirky laughs and seeing what Gondry does next.
Blue collar comic Larry the Cable Guy has found a niche audience in the South and Midwest, but his latest comedy Witless Protection (Lionsgate) is getting the smallest release so far, showing that the studio might not have as much faith in the comic after last year's Delta Farce bombed. Presumably, the movie will be targeted more towards the area where Larry's fans reside, but that's still not pointing to a very big audience, especially with a much smaller marketing campaign.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 22 - 24" »
Not too many big changes since Tuesday, although the insanely wide release of Paramount's The Spiderwick Chronicles into 3,847 theaters, including IMAX, and with the new Indiana Jones trailer attached to it, I've decided to up my prediction closer to where I had it before I saw tracking numbers for the film (which frankly, is not painting a very pretty picture of it doing much better than last year's The Golden Compass, or even worse). Still, with the extended weekend and being the only strong family/kiddie fare even with Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus hanging onto theaters. I'm also adding a little more onto the weekends for Step Up 2 the Streets and the Universal romantic comedy Definitely, Maybe, which have been building up buzz over the next few days and could have stronger weekends as alternatives to the action and effects movies.
Updated Predictions (All predictions are for the four-day holiday weekend) -
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $36.2 million N/A (down .1 million) ($7 - 7.5 million on Thursday)
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $28.3 million N/A
(up 1.9 million) ($4.5 - 5 million on Thursday)
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $18.4 million N/A (up .6 million) ($5.5 - 6 million on Thursday)
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $15.5 million -28% (same) ($5 million on Thursday)
5. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $12.2 million -25% (same) ($3.5 million on Thursday)
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $10.3 million N/A (up .7 million) ($3.5 - 4 million on Thursday)
7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) - $6.2 million -41% (same)
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.3 million -24% (down .3 million)
9. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.0 million -25% (same, though up one spot)
10. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $3.8 million -29% (down .4 million and one spot)
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the special Valentine's and Presidents' Day weekend edition, and this might be a difficult weekend to predict with all four wide releases opening one day early to bring in some VD business, some of which might or might not take away from their business over the four-day weekend. In general, there's some strong choices this weekend that will offer something for everyone with only a little overlap, mostly between the two big budget effects movies based on young people's books that will get ultra-wide releases this weekend.
The movie to beat this weekend is the latest project from the filmmakers who introduced Brad Pitt to Angelina Jolie, director Doug Liman and writer Simon Kinberg (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), and their sci-fi action flick Jumper (20th Century Fox) that reunites Hayden Christensen and Samuel L. Jackson from the "Star Wars" prequels. With the strongest draw for older boys and men under 25, it's likely to win the weekend with $35 million or more, only held back by the amount of business it might lose to some of the other movies.
Younger fantasy fans might prefer something like The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon), starring Freddie "I've Never Met a Fantasy Film I Didn't Appear In" Highmore, based on the popular young adult books, which will probably be the first choice for families looking for something to take the kids to over the extended holiday weekend. It's less likely to be as frontloaded to Thursday and Friday as Jumper, and it should do enough business over Saturday and Sunday to bring it closer to the $30 million mark with help from its run in IMAX theaters.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 14 - 18" »
Not too many changes from earlier in the week (i.e. yesterday) except that Warner Bros. is giving their romantic action-comedy Fool's Gold a much wider release into over 3,100 theaters, something which pretty much guarantees its placement in the top slot based on tracking and early buzz. Martin Lawrence's Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins is looking more and more like it might not find that much of an audience even though second place with over $15 million would still be a good showing for it. With a theater count closer to 1,000, Vince Vaughn's Wild Wild West Comedy Show still has a chance at squeaking into the Top 10, though it might still be too wide.
Updated Predictions -
1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $24.3 million N/A (up 1 million)
2. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $18.2 million N/A (down .2 million)
3. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds… (Disney) - $15.0 million -52%
4. The Eye (Lionsgate) - $6.3 million -49% (- .2 million)
5. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $5.1 million -40%
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5 million -35%
7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.2 million -38% (up .1 million)
8. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $3.7 million - 48%
9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $3.5 million -52%
10. Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show (Picturehouse) $3.0 million N/A (up .2 million)
For the third or fourth weekend in a row, two movies will be vying for the top spot and this week, you might be able to flip a coin and come up with a winner, but here at the Weekend Warrior, we're going with the reunion of Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson in the romantic adventure Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.), which looks like a cross between Romancing the Stone and National Treasure, two easy references that should help bring in a large audience, both male and female, though mostly the over-25 crowd.
It's biggest competition will be the other new movie in wide release, and though Martin Lawrence's latest comedy Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) will play in 500 fewer theaters, it does have all the elements that will appeal to the African-American audience that won't be as interested in some of the other choices. It should hold up to Fool's Gold in terms of per-theater average, but might fall short due to the smaller theater count and being more frontloaded to Friday.
Disney decided earlier this week to continue their hit concert film Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) for a second weekend (no surprise there) but with such an exaggerated opening, due to the original announcement of it playing for only a week, it's likely to drop to more realistic levels this weekend, and possibly be greatly hurt by lack of 'tweens who haven't already rushed out to see it.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 8 - 10" »
Definitely looks like we underestimated the power of the ten-year-old girls in the country, because since our earlier predictions, many of the screenings of Hannah Montana and Miley Cirus' concert movie have sold out through advance sales on Fandango, who reported two days ago that ticket sales for the movie have made up 91% of their sales over the last week. Another thing that wasn't taken into consideration is the $15 - 20 being charged by some theaters for tickets to the movie which apparently isn't much longer than an hour, which means they'll be able to get a lot more screenings in. Both of these things would point to a much bigger opening than we previously predicted, showing a similar fanaticism for the movie as for the Hannah Montana concert tour last year. What that in mind, we can expect Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds to take the top spot and potentially try to set a new per-theatre average record although the business might be very much frontloaded to the Friday screenings.
This puts Lionsgate's The Eye at #2 with roughly the amount we predicted originally and everything else much along the same line as before, although the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans will probably tank this weekend after a dismal week where it was down from #1 to #5 by Wednesday.
This Week's Predictions -
1. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds… (Disney) - $20.6 million N/A (up $7 million!)
2. The Eye (Lionsgate) - $14.4 million N/A (Up .2 million)
3. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $8.5 million - 53%
4. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $8.2 million -39%
5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $7.4 million -27%
6. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $7.0 million -63% (down .9 million)
7. Over Her Dead Body (New Line) - $6.8 million N/A (up .2 million)
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $6.5 million -38%
9. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $6.1 million -53%
10. Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) - $6.0 million -47%
11. There WIll Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.6 million -6%
12. Strange Wilderness (Paramount) - $3.5 million N/A
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where after a January only eventful for a single record-breaking movie, we kick off the month of February with Super Bowl weekend, which means however a movie does on Friday, it's going to have trouble maintaining that business over the entire weekend, especially movies geared towards guys.
No one will probably be very surprised if that's the case with the horror remake The Eye (Lionsgate), starring Jessica Alba, continuing the string of J-horror remakes--despite being based on a Hong Kong production by Thai filmmakers The Pang Brothers (The Messengers)--as well as the tradition of horror movies being opened over Super Bowl weekend, knowing that they'll do very well on Friday and then quickly crash and burn. With Alba on board, this one has more star power than the normal Super Bowl horror movie, but the recent Alba thriller Awake didn't fare well even with less competition.
It's going to have some heavy competition for the top spot with the concert movie Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney), which opens in just 680 theatres nationwide, but should be able to capitalize on the enormous fanaticism for the young singer/starlet from tween and younger girls that have sold out her concerts nationwide. The chance to see the concert in Disney 3D might be the next best thing to being there and one can expect Cyrus' young fans to flock to see this in theatres for its limited week-long run in IMAX theatres with higher ticket prices allowing for a bigger opening than last week's U2 3D.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 1 - 3" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
After setting a new MLK Jr. weekend record, the J.J. Abrams-produced monster movie Cloverfield (Paramount) was clobbered by two new entries, and while the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) and Sylvester Stallone's return as Rambo (Lionsgate) were running pretty close on Friday, the Spartans remained ahead over the weekend, grossing an estimated $18.7 million in 2,605 theaters compared to Rambo's $18.1 million. Ironically, neither movie was screened for critics until opening day proving the studio theory that reviews rarely help movies like these.
The Diane Lane serial killer thriller Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) also did relatively well, bringing in $11.2 million in 2,368 theaters as it opened in fifth place.
Continue reading "Spartans and Rambo Duke it Out for #1" »
Okay, it's only been one day since this week's predictions were posted so there aren't too many changes now that we have actual theatre counts, although it certainly looks like J.J. Abrams' Cloverfield isn't holding up as well as originally thought. It still should remain ahead of Sylvester Stallone's return as Rambo, which should be a "Friday Night Special" holding very little traction over the weekend. The spoof comedy Meet the Spartans will take away some of its potential business, and it should also keep Diane Lane's serial killer thriller Untraceable under the $10 million mark for the weekend.
The big unknown is still Paramount Vantage's dance movie How She Move but it should be interesting to see it jockeying for position in the lower half of the Top 10 against the studio's Oscar nominated There Will Be Blood from P. T. Anderson.
Reexpanding into over 1,000 theaters after its multiple Oscar nominations, Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton starring George Clooney should bring in an additional $3.5 to 4 million over the weekend, just ahead of its Oscar competition, Joel and Ethan Coen's No Country for Old Men, which will be in roughly the same number of theaters.
Updated Predictions -
1. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $18.6 million -54% (down -.9 mill.)
2. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $16.6 million N/A (down .1)
3. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $14.3 million -38% (same)
4. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $12.4 million N/A (up .6)
5. Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) - $9.3 million N/A (same)
6. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $8.6 million -39% (same)
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $7.5 million -25% (same)
8. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) - $4.8 million N/A (up .2 mil)
9. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.7 million +62% (up .3 mil and one place)
10. Mad Money (Overture) - $4.3 million -42% (down .2 mil and one place)
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we have one of those handy-dandy stripped-down columns this week to allow your faithful box office analyst to focus on the movies playing at the Sundance Film Festival. This minimal column is dedicated to the memory and family of Heath Ledger, a great actor and a tragic loss to film with his sudden and very unexpected death.
This weekend wraps up the month of January with four new movies in wide release, undaunted by the fact that business tends to nosedive as the month comes to a close. After the success of his last sequel Rocky Balboa, Sylvester Stallone is back writing, directing and starring as Rambo (Lionsgate) in the return of the violent military man, but in this case, it seems like Stallone might be going back to the well one time too many with this character, and it might not have enough of a fanbase remaining to bring them back. It also will be facing the second weekend of last week’s record-breaking Cloverfield, which should remain on top with a significant drop from the holiday weekend, so Rambo should wind up somewhere in the high-teens and second place.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: January 25 - 27" »
Not too much of a change from earlier in the week as it still looks like the J.J. Abrams produced Cloverfield and the romantic comedy 27 Dresses should dominate the box office.
It also looks like the Coens' No Country for Old Men won't go as wide as originally planned due to not taking the cake at the Golden Globes--it probably will expand wider next weekend after Oscar nominations-- while Atonement should see a nice bump with an expansion into 341 more theaters after its own Globe win on Sunday.
Updated Predictions (all 4-day predictions) -
1. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $42.2 million N/A (up 1 million)
2. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $22.8 million N/A (same)
3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $14.7 million -24% (same)
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $11.5 million -16% (same)
5. First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) - $11.0 million -33% (down 1 million and 1 spot)
6. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $8.0 million -29% (up .2 million)
7. Mad Money (Overture Films) - $7.6 million N/A (up .1 million)
8. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $7.3 million -22% (same)
9. Atonement (Focus Features) - $5.4 million +28%
10. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $5.0 million -37% (down .3 million and 1 spot)
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where the extended Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend is all about two movies with only one of them having a chance at setting a new January opening record. That would be the enigmatic new film produced by "Alias" and "Lost" creator J.J. Abrams known as Cloverfield (Paramount), a fairly low-budget monster movie about an attack on New York City all captured on the hand-held digital cameras of those who experienced it first-hand. With a huge amount of curiosity and buzz going into the long weekend, one shouldn't be too surprised if it makes more than $40 million over the four-day weekend with a good chance at topping the January opening record of Star Wars: Special Edition. Then again, there's also a danger of it being this year's Snakes on a Plane if the expectations have been built too high due to the internet hype, although that will have more effect next weekend if that's the case.
On the other hand, Katherine Heigl's new romantic comedy 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox), being released as counter-programming, has far more solid buzz from a number of well-attended early sneak previews, and its wedding themes should be of more interest to older girls and women who have only had Hilary Swank's P.S. I Love You as an option.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: January 18 - 21" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
The box office continues to remain healthy as two star-packed movies vied for the top spot with over $19 million each, but after playing in 16 theaters for two weeks, Rob Reiner's The Bucket List (Warner Bros.), starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, exploded into over 2,900 theaters nationwide where it amassed an estimated $19.5 million for the weekend. Ice Cube's latest comedy First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) opened in 700 fewer theaters but averaged over $8,500 to come in a close second with an estimated $19 million.
Although the indie comedy Juno (Fox Searchlight) had been #1 at the box office for most of the past week, it had to settle for third place with the entry of two new comedies opening in most regions. Still, it dropped only 12% from last weekend to make another $14 million over the weekend, and with $71.2 million in box office receipts, Juno is only a day or two away from becoming Fox Searchlight's highest grossing movie to date, guaranteed to surpass the $71.5 million made by the 2005 Oscar-nominee Sideways.
Continue reading "Nicholson, Freeman and Cube Top the Box Office List" »
In the last two days, we've had a bit of a shake-up in the Top 10 mostly from Fox Searchlight expanding their hit comedy Juno into far more theaters after it won a couple Critics' Choice Awards last week and in close to 2,500 theaters, it shouldn't have a problem moving up another notch to top the box office in its 6th weekend.
Also, Rob Reiner's The Bucket List starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman has been getting a ton of advertising and closer to 3,000 theaters, so it should do better in wide release, particularly in suburban areas, than its holiday platform release heralded. Look for it to be a neck-and-neck race for the weekend with Juno squeezing out a win.
With two strong comedies, Sony/Screen Gem's First Sunday only has a chance at appealing to black audiences and the teens who haven't seen Juno but ultimately, it will get trampled with so many stronger comedies in theaters. (Morgan Freeman might pull some of that older African-American audience to see Bucket List.)
Uwe Boll's In the Name of the King has ended up in almost a thousand less theaters than originally estimated despite a ton of TV ads, so now it's unlikely to get into the Top 10, probably winding up just outside.
Other expanding movies include Atonement into just under a thousand, which should allow it remain in the top 10 and both the Spanish horror film The Orphanage and the Afghanistan-based drama The Kite Runner both are expanding into close to 700 theaters but probably will end up in the $1.5 to 2.5 million range.
Updated Predictions -
1. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $13.9 million - 13% (up $1.7 mil.)
2. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $12.5 million +3000% (up $2.3 mil.)
3. First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) - $11.7 million N/A (down $1.6 mil)
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $11.4 million -40% (down .1 million)
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $9.0 million -45% (down .2 million)
6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $8.9 million -45% (same)
7. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) - $6.4 million N/A (down .8 million)
8. Atonement (Focus) - $5.2 million -38%
9. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) - $5.1 million -59% (down .6 million)
10. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $5.1 million -35% (down .2 million)
- In the Name of the King (Freestyle) - $3.9 million N/A
- The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) - $2.1 million +21%
- The Orphanage (Picturehouse) - $1.6 million 320%
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we're back in full-on box office analysis mode after taking a much-needed week off. This week, we have three new movies in wide release plus two limited releases expanding nationwide after playing in select cities over the holidays.
The easy winner of the weekend should be the urban comedy First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) starring Ice Cube and Tracy Morgan, directed by famed urban playwright David E. Talpert, a combination that should help bring in a strong African-American demographic that might not have much interest in the other movies playing in theatres.
After two weeks in limited release, Rob Reiner's dramedy The Bucket List (Warner Bros.), starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, opens nationwide into over 2,700 theatres, which should be enough theatres to help it place in the Top 5 even if it hasn't exactly been making waves in limited release. Expect it to end up somewhere around $10 million thanks to Nicholson and Freeman's older demographic, but it probably won't do much better than that.
Six years after their previous feature film, the talking animated vegetables are back for The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything - A VeggieTales Movie (Universal), which might be able to jump in and take advantage of the amount of time Fox's Alvin and the Chipmunks has been in theatres to offer a solid follow-up, despite opening in less than 1,500 theatres. Expect a moderate opening with a possible expansion to help it do more business over the four-day weekend next week.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: January 11 - 13" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
The normally slow first month of the year once again became the perfect time to open a low-key horror movie and bring in some business, as previously seen with Universal's White Noise and Eli Roth's Hostel. This time, it was the remake of J-horror movie One Missed Call that saw an opportunity and grabbed it with an estimated opening weekend of $13.5 million in 2,240 theaters--an average of over $6k per theaters--surpassing early expectations and studio tracking after an opening day of over $5 million.
Even so, it would have to settle for fifth place for the weekend behind a number of stronger returning movies including Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) starring Nicolas Cage, which remained on top for a third weekend in a row with $20.2 million, down 43% from last week. So far, it has grossed $171 million and it's just a few million short of matching the total gross of the original National Treasure.
Continue reading "One Missed Call Answers an Opportunity" »
Happy New Year and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the special 2008 lite kick-off edition, where the only new movie in wide release is a remake of the little-known Japanese horror flick One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) starring Shannyn Sossamon and Edward Burns. As the only new movie, it might do a little business among teens thanks to its PG-13 rating, at least enough to get into the Top 10, but with so many people returning to work and school, Friday's going to be pretty dead, so it's doubtful the movie can do much business beyond that. Expect it to end up somewhere near Warner Bros.' romantic comedy P.S. I Love You and Sony's The Water Horse in their fourth and third weekends respectively. Nicolas Cage's National Treasure should get an easy pass for a rare third weekend at #1 unless those darn Chipmunks continue to explode beyond any expectations.
Weekend Predictions -
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $20.2 million -44%
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $17.3 million - 41%
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $14.6 million - 47%
4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $8.8 -17%
5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) - $6.7 million -44%
6. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $5.4 million -42%
7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) - $5.3 million N/A
8. The Water Horse (Sony) - $5.3 million -43%
9. Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (Fox) - $4.7 million -53%
10. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $4.4 million -47%
11. The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company) $3.4 million -44%
There are also a couple limited releases opening this week, which you can read about after the jump.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior (Lite): January 4 - 6" »
We got the Best and now here's the "worst", at least in my opinion, of the over 300 movies I saw in 2007. Yes, some of these I walked out of and believe me, I feel somewhat bad about including those, but at the same time, I know if I stayed any longer, they would have ended up even lower on the list. They were that awful and reprehensible. The ones I did wish I walked out on but stayed through the end never got better and probably never will get better.
As much as I wanted to include movies like War and Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding and the recent dog Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem on this list as well as a few others, my attempt to limit the list to 25 was very difficult, because there were so many movies I wanted to trash one more time before putting them into the vault, hopefully never to see or write about them ever again.
And away we go...
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior's Terrible 25 of '07" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
The last weekend of the year was even busier than normal between the five new movies from last week and three new movies added on Tuesday, but while Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox) was expected to destroy all competition, that's not quite what happened, as it could barely hold its own against a number of returning movies including a little underrated indie that exploded over the holidays.
Even so, Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) remained on top for a second weekend with $35.6 million, a 20% drop from its opening before Christmas, bringing its total to $124 million in just ten days. In their third weekend together, the family film Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) overtook Will Smith's sci-fi thriller I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) to take second place with $30 million and a cumulative gross of $142.4 million. Legend dropped to third with $27.5 million and $194.5 million total, putting it in line to cross the $200 million mark by the end of the year on Tuesday, placing it amongst the Top 10 grossers for 2007.
After opening on Christmas Day with $9.5 million in just over 2,500 theaters, Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox) quickly tanked, dropping drastically over the next few days to the point where it only made $10 million over the weekend and $26.8 million over the six days, roughly $10 million less than the original movie made in its first weekend.
Even more embarrassing for the creature battle sequel was that Fox Searchlight's indie comedy Juno beat it into the Top 5 by a mere quarter of a million dollars, grossing $10.3 million in its first wide release into less than a thousand theatres, seeing a 200% increase from before Christmas as it moved up five places. The award-nominated comedy from Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody and starring Ellen Page had the highest per-theatre average in the top 10 of roughly $10.3k per theatre, and it's grossed an astounding $25.7 million after less than a month in theaters.
Continue reading "Nic, Will, Alvin & Juno Squash Aliens vs. Predator" »
Things are looking a lot clearer now that we have the actual box office for the pre-Christmas weekend but most of our weekend predictions remain fairly close with a few exceptions. (Unfortunately, we didn't get any screen counts for the weekend, which doesn't help matters.)
Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem did better than expected on Tuesday but quickly tanked on Wednesday, so it's looking like it will end up more in the $15 million range for the weekend. The Water Horse will probably end up just slightly under our earlier prediction and Juno will wind up well above. As expected many of the movies that opened last weekend are having strong legs over the week but we'll see how that translates over the weekend. The big surprise is how Tim Burton and Johnny Depp's Sweeney Todd continues to drop while other movies pick up business so we may see Hilary Swank's P.S. I Love You overtake it, if it maintains the business it's picked up over the holidays.
Updated Predictions -
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $40.5 million - 11% (same)
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $27.3 million - 19% (down .7 million)
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $23.8 million - 16% (down .8 million)
4. Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (Fox) - $15.3 million N/A (Down $2.5 million!)
5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) - $11.3 million +18% (Up .7 million)
6. The Water Horse (Sony) - $9.8 million N/A (down 1 million)
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $8.4 million +29% (up .9 million)
8. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $8.2 million - 12% (up .4 million)
9. The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Co.) $7.6 million N/A (same)
10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $6.9 million +59% (up $1.5 million)
Well, it's that time of year again and as usual, I'm behind the pack on sharing my list of top movies of the year. The first thing one must set aside is the thinking that this is a list of the "best movies of 2007" since that would be far too subjective. There are plenty of movies on here that technically might not be considered the best filmmaking, but these movies are the ones that had the most impact and effect on me, so look at it more as my list of "favorite movies of the year."
This has been an especially tough year getting this list down to 25 choices because out of the over 300 movies I've seen, many of them twice or even three times, so many of them were considered worthy of a 9/10 or higher, with only one exception, that I had to weigh them all against each other and take more factors into account than usual. Surprisingly, I wound up with far more comedies and genre films in my list than ever, mostly thanks to filmmakers like Judd Apatow, Edgar Wright and Bong Joon-ho. It probably isn't too big a coincident that many of my favorite movies came out earlier in the year or played at festivals, allowing me to see them two or three times by year's end, although a couple of them I've seen even more times than that.
The list starts after the jump...
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior's Top 25 of 2007" »
Writing about the box office every week might always be my first love, but I'm really proud of how my interviewing skills have improved and how the resulting interviews have turned out this year. Without question, I did even more exclusive interviews with some of my favorite filmmakers and actors than the year before, starting at the Sundance Film Festival and continuing through the entire year. Unfortunately, the nature of the entertainment business is that these things have a very short lifespan on the front page of ComingSoon.net so if you didn't read them before the movie came out, you probably missed them. These are interviews that were fun or were with people who I generally liked talking to, and no, it's not too coincidental that many of the people on this list are either British or New Yorkers with very few exceptions… because let's face it, New York and the U.K. are great!
I'd like to dedicate these interviews to my good friend Daniel Robert Epstein who sadly, passed away very suddenly this year. The guy was a real inspiration to me, as he was probably one of the best interviewers on the web, and it was a huge loss to have him taken from us so suddenly, which really pushed me to try to live up to the standards he set for internet interviews.
Without further editorial or comment, here are 25 or so interviews I really enjoyed doing this year (after the bump):
Continue reading "My Favorite Interviews of '07" »
Welcome back to the last Weekend Warrior of 2007 and the last weekend of the year starts early with three new movies opening wide tomorrow on Christmas Day, as well as a popular limited release expanding significantly wider. Although Disney’s National Treasure: Book of Secrets and Will Smith’s I Am Legend will probably hold onto a significant amount of business, some of them will probably cut into the latter, most notably Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox), a sequel to the successful 2004 franchise face-off, which should make a play for the #1 or 2 spot on Christmas Day, but will likely drop-off over the course of the week to wind up third or fourth place by the weekend.
A new family movie that should thrive from the lack of family fare in theatres is the fantasy adventure The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony), about a boy who finds a creature that ultimately turns into the mythic beast within Loch Ness, but it doesn’t have a particularly strong cast and it may be too British for American moviegoers.
On the other hand, Denzel Washington's second movie as a director The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Co.), about a debating teacher who makes a difference with three kids by inspiring them to strive for bigger challenges, is getting a huge push from producer Oprah Winfrey, which should help it do very well over the next week despite its moderate release into less than 1,500 theaters. One can expect to see some impressive numbers for what should be the first choice for most African-American audiences over the next week.
Also, Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s acclaimed comedy Juno (Fox Searchlight), starring the multiple award-nominee Ellen Page, will expand nationwide into nearly 1,000 theatres on Christmas Day, and the buzz behind the movie should help it make another $10 to 11 million over the next six days before it expands even more in the new year. (It's a classic case of Fox Searchlight's impressive ability of building word-of-mouth and expanding at just the right pace to take advantage of it.)
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: December 28 - 30" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
This was a busy pre-Christmas weekend with five new movies in wide release trying to shake up last week's juggernaut duo of Will Smith's I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) and the family comedy Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox). The Top 10 did indeed look very different as it turned into a battle of the box office stars to see which of them could convince holiday travelers and shoppers to take in a movie amidst their Christmas planning.
The winner of that battle was clearly Nicolas Cage, starring in the first sequel of his career as he returned for producer Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney), which grossed an estimated $45.5 million in its opening weekend, an opening 30% higher than the original movie that might have been even higher if not for the pre-holiday downturn in theaters.
Dropping to second place, Will Smith's sci-fi thriller I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) took a 56% tumble to make room for the anticipated sequel, grossing $34.3 million in its second weekend after grossing over $100 million in its first week. With a gross of $137.5 million, it has already topped Ridley Scott's American Gangster as the biggest movie of the year's 4th quarter.
In third place, the family holiday comedy Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) wasn't hit nearly as hard in its second weekend, with a modest 35% drop from its astounding opening weekend, adding roughly $29 million to its impressive take of $84.8 million.
Fourth place was a tight race between four enormous box office stars with Johnny Depp and Tim Burton on one side and Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts on the other. While the former's take on the musical Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks) won out on Friday, it was hit hard on Saturday, dropping down to fifth below the Hanks-Roberts political flick Charlie Wilson's War (Universal), which grossed an estimated $9.6 million to Sweeney Todd's $9.3 million. Granted, the Burton-Depp film was playing in half as many theatres as Charlie Wilson, and these estimates based on Friday and Saturday numbers could prove low for both movies if things pick up on Sunday.
Continue reading "Nic Cage Digs Up Holiday Treasure" »
This is the last update for the year but essentially, National Treasure, Charlie Wilson's War and Walk Hard are down slightly from our predictions earlier in the week. National Treasure is getting significantly more theatres but will probably be hurt by the holiday traveling weekend, while Tim Burton's Sweeny Todd and the Hilary Swank romantic comedy P.S. I Love You are up slightly, both with a slight increase in theatre counts from our estimates earlier in the week. Should be a decent weekend with at least $150 million grossed by the Top 10 but being the killer pre-holiday weekend, one can expect everything to do worse than expected but then pick up a huge amount of business next week.
Also, look for Juno to make a play into the Top 10 just narrowly defeating Atonement as both of them expand into roughly 300 theatres.
Oh, and remember that next week's column, the last of the year, will be live on ComingSoon.net on Monday, just in time for Christmas!
Updated Predictions -
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $45.8 million N/A (-2.8 million)
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $33.8 million -56% (same)
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $24.8 million -44% (down -.4 million)
4. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $14.6 million N/A (+1.3 million)
5. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) - $10.8 million N/A (-.5 million)
6. Walk Hard (Sony) - $9.4 million N/A (-.1 million)
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $8.1 million N/A (+.9 million)
8. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $4.3 million -53% (+.1 million)
9. Enchanted (Walt Disney) - $3.3 million -41% (same)
10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $3.0 million +100% (NEW)
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies, and after an absolutely nutty crazy busy weekend, we've reached the last weekend before Christmas, preceding a week where everybody and their family who haven't seen a movie all year heads to the movie theater. This weekend tends to be hard to predict since so many people are doing their last minute shopping or traveling early for the holidays and movies aren't exactly the first thing on everyone's mind. Very often, movies opening this weekend tend to underperform but then make 5 or 6 times the weekend amount by the time they leave theaters the following January. Most if not all people will have Monday off, being Christmas Eve, so there should be less frontloading to Friday, although there's just as likely to be people traveling on Friday and Saturday.
Still, it's a great time for the sequel to Nicolas Cage's biggest blockbuster hit to date National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) to be out there to grab the millions who loved the first movie and want to see more of Benjamin Gates' adventures. While the pre-Christmas weekend (and stronger than expected openings for I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks) might keep it under the $50 million mark this weekend, with so many people off work and school over the next two weeks, one can expect this to give Will Smith a run as the top grossing holiday movie.
Cage has some rough competition among older audiences with the reteaming of Johnny Depp and Tim Burton for their version of Stephen Sondheim's musical Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks) and Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in the political drama Charlie Wilson's War (Universal), although the latter will more likely be duking it out for fifth place with the Judd Apatow produced musical comedy Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) starring John C. Reilly and Jenna Fischer. Either way, the latter two will be pushing for $40 to 50 million total, while the Sondheim musical could end up grossing over $80 million as it starts stacking up some inevitable awards for Depp and Burton.
Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: December 21 - 23" »
The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.
In one of the most astounding weekends since the summer, two movies opened and far exceeded all expectations, predictions and studio tracking as Will Smith opened his latest sci-fi action flick I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) in December with the type of opening weekend that's genearlly only seen during the summer months. With an estimated opening of $76.5 million in regular and IMAX theatres, an average of over $21,000 per theater, Legend has set a new opening record for Smith as well as the new record for December, surpassing The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, the finale to the popular fantasy trilogy which previously held the record with $72.6 million.
Even more surprising might be the success of Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) in finding a huge family audience to the tune of $45 million, more than DreamWorks' highly-publicized Bee Movie last month, but produced for just $60 million rather than the $150 million spent on the Seinfeld comedy. Alvin averaged nearly $13,000 per theatre over the weekend, becoming one of the top 8 openers for the month of December, and it should continue to do well over the busy holiday week to come.
Continue reading "Will Smith Sets a Legendary Record -- $76.5 million!" »
As it gets closer to the opening of Will Smith's new movie, we're going to give a little more weight to the IMax screenings and that special early footage from Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, which should be worth another $3 to 5 million for the weekend even opening in a December weekend where things usually slow down. (There just hasn't been a big movie since Enchanted a few weeks back so we're probably due another hit.) With Smith's movie taking over the IMAX screens, Robert Zemeckis' Beowulf loses nearly half its theaters and is likely to crash down to the bottom of the Top 10 without much chance of picking things up over the weekend.
Updated Predictions -
1. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $50.6 million N/A (up $3 million)
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $15.7 million (up .4 million)
3. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $13.7 million -47%
4. Enchanted (Disney) - $6.6 million -38%
5. The Perfect Holiday (Yari Film Group) - $4.3 million N/A
6. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $3.3 million -20% (down .1)
7. Fred Claus (Warner Bros) - $3.1 million -28% (up .2)
8. This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) - $3.1 million -39% (up .1)
9. August Rush (Warner Bros.) - $2.3 million -38% (same)
10. Beowulf (Paramount) - $2.1 million -53% (down .3)
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