Comingsoon.net

Completely exhausted from this week's ShoWest Convention but wanted to get in a last minute update, even if theater counts aren't that different from earlier in the week. Apparently, the new The Incredible Hulk trailer is debuting with Neil Marshall's Doomsday and is being advertised as such, and while that might account for some of the movie's business this weekend, it's still not looking like the strongest new movie of the weekend. Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro is losing a significant amount of theaters this weekend and is likely to drop dramatically for the second weekend in a row.

Updated Predictions -

1. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) - $48.3 million N/A (same)

2. 10,000 BC (Warner Bros.) - $14.2 million -61% (+ .6 million)

3. College Road Trip (Disney) - $7.9 million -42% (same)

4. Never Back Down (Summit) - $7.4 million N/A (+ .5 million)

5. Doomsday (Universal) - $5.9 million N/A (+ .3 million)

6. Vantage Point (Sony) - $4.2 million -43% (- .2 million)

7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million -42% (+ .1 million)

8. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $2.7 million -53% (- .2 million)

9. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $2.4 million -48% (same)

10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.3 million -43% (+ .1 million)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we planned a somewhat streamlined column to allow the Warrior to cover ShoWest in Las Vegas, but the world of Hollywood doesn't stop just because the Warrior is partying working away from home base, and this weekend sees one more chance for the box office to rebound after a number of bad weeks with disappointing showings.

The last hope of the winter/spring season might be the animated Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) featuring the voices of Jim Carrey and Steve Carell--reunited for the first time since facing off in Bruce Almighty--and the combination of their talent with the popular source material, a desirable G-Rating and the lack of strong kid and family material currently in theaters should make this another significant hit from the makers of the Ice Age movies. $40 million should be a foregone conclusion, and it's likely to push its way to $50 million, though it might be hard for it to do much more than that this weekend. One can expect it will make a lot of money over the next few weeks, especially with schools out for spring break and the long Easter weekend approaching.

For the young guys trying to catch something that might wash the sour taste of 10,000 BC out of their palates, there'll be two choices, the martial arts action-drama Never Back Down (Summit Entertainment) and Neil (The Descent) Marshall's third film, the apocalyptic action thriller Doomsday (Universal Pictures), which should split up audiences, although the lack of star power should keep either from making more than $7 million over the weekend, even if that's enough to get at least one of them into the Top 5.

Once again, there are very few changes in the last few days to my earlier predictions although Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B. C. is not getting the over 3,500 theaters I expected, even though the buzz on the movie and the strong ad campaign should bring in enough curious young moviegoers to bring in $40 million this weekend even if its heavily frontloaded to Friday. Everything else is pretty much the same with Martin Lawrence's family comedy College Road Trip probably doing better than anyone expects and Jason Statham's The Bank Job bombing.

Updated Predictions -

1. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) - $41.8 million N/A (down .5 million)

2. College Road Trip (Disney) - $20.3 million N/A (down .2 million)

3. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $7.8 million -48% (down .2 million)

4. Vantage Point (Sony) - $7.1 million -45% (same)

5. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $5.6 million (up .3 million and one spot)

6. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $5.4 million -38% (same but down one spot)

7. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $4.7 million -42% (same)

8. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $3.9 million -49% (down .2 million)

9. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $3.2 million -44%

10. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $2.7 million -40%

-- Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $1.8 million N/A

And after the jump, you can read my mini-review of 10,000 B.C..

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where a dismal end to the month of February leads to a more hopeful launch to the month of March with three new movies offering a wide variety of genres, star power and effects-laden action, something for everyone essentially, although Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) will probably take a big chunk of the younger male audience that want to see cavemen fighting mammoths and sabretooth tigers. Or at least that's the hopes of Warner Bros. who are taking a big chance by opening what would normally be a big-budget summer movie at the beginning of March.

Disney isn't taking nearly as big a chance by teaming Martin Lawrence and Raven-Symoné in the G-rated College Road Trip, which should continue their string of spring comedy hits, as it does better than Lawrence's last movie Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins in bringing in Lawrence's African-American fanbase but a lot more families as well due to its rating and the Disney label.

Last but not least, Jason Statham returns to his British crime-drama roots with The Bank Job (Lionsgate), a heist flick loosely based on a famous British bank robbery, but despite Statham's popularity with Crank and the "Transporter" movies, this probably won't have the same appeal to Statham's video game enthusiast audience, so it'll probably be more for older guys, and its moderate release might keep it somewhere in the middle of the Top 10.

Nothing really worth noting although this looks like it will be another slow weekend with Will Ferrell's getting less theaters than we originally expected and the recent announcement of New Line merging with Warner Bros. might be an omen for how Time Warner thinks their big spring movie will do this weekend. Sony's period drama The Other Boleyn Girl and the romantic fantasy Penelope will probably do slightly better only because there's very little else to see but we probably can't expect anything too impressive from any of the movies.

Updated Predictions -

1. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $31.1 million N/A (down $1.6 million)

2. Vantage Point (Sony) - $13.0 million -44% (up .5 million)

3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $8.9 million -32%
(same)

4. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $6.5 million -49% (up .1 million)

5. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $5.4 million N/A (up .5 million and one spot)

6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $5.2 million -46% (up .1 million, down 1 spot)

7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) $3.8 million -11% (same)

8. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $3.7 million -44% (same)

9. Penelope (Summit) - $3.3 million N/A (up .4 million and one spot)

10. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $3.0 million -40% (down .2 million and one spot)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where the month of February ends with an extra day thanks to Leap Year, and another guaranteed #1 movie as Will Ferrell takes on basketball in the '70s retro-comedy Semi-Pro (New Line) along with a great supporting cast including Woody Harrelson, Andre Benjamin, Maura Tierney, and Will Arnett. The key difference between this and other Ferrell comedies is that it's his first R-rated wide release since his breakout performance as Frank the Tank in Old School, which might keep some of Ferrell's younger teen fans from seeing it. Then again, Ferrell has plenty of 17 and older male fans who'll probably dig seeing him in this sort of sports vehicle. The question is whether his first movie for New Line since Elf, his biggest movie to date, will match or best his 2007 sports comedy Blades of Glory.

Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson co-star in the period drama The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) about two of the six wives of King Henry the VIII (here played by Eric Bana). Based on the popular book by Phillipa Gregory, its main appeal will be to women over 25, an audience who's fairly neglected right now, though only opening in just over a thousand theaters will keep it on the outskirts of the Top 5.

Not too much has changed since Tuesday, just a bit of reshuffling of the drop-offs from President's Day weekend, although it still looks like Charlie Bartlett and Larry the Cable Guy's Witless Protection will be fighting it out for bomb-o'-the-week with neither looking good to make it into the Top 10. There's definitely interest in Michel Gondry's Be Kind Rewind among young dudes, although opening in just 808 theaters could limit how far it might go and the Top 5 might be too high for it to reach. Sony's Vantage Point is still going to be well ahead of everything else on Friday and for the weekend, though it might have a significant drop-off on Sunday for the Oscars. Certainly, the lack of strong reviews won't help the movie do a huge amount of business this weekend but still bring in the curious.

Oh, one late addition: the concert movie U2 3D expands from 40 theaters to 678 theaters tomorrow, but it will still probably end up outside the Top 10 with roughly $2 million.

Updated Predictions -

1. Vantage Point (Sony) - $21.8 million N/A (up .5 million)

2. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $14.0 million -49% (down .1 million)

3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $12.5 million -35% (up .7 million)

4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $8.6 million -55% (down 1.1 million)

5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $7.8 million -41% (up .1 million)

6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $6.0 million -38% (same)

7. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $4.6 million -46% (down .3 million)

8. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) - $4.1 million N/A (up .3 million)

9. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $3.3 million -30% (up .1 mill.)

10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) -$2.8 million -39% (not listed on Tuesday)

11. Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $2.7 million N/A (up .2 million)

12. Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2.4 million N/A (down .1 million)

13 or 14. U2 3D (National Geographic) - $1.9 million 475% (not listed on Tuesday)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we have a fairly easy no-brainer weekend with just one of the four new movies standing much of a chance at making it into the Top 5. Maybe that's because the ensemble thriller Vantage Point (Sony), starring the likes of Dennis Quaid, Matthew Fox and Forest Whitaker, is the only movie to be opening in more than 2,000 theatres. In fact, it's opening in over 3,000 theaters with a strong marketing campaign, which should leave it sitting pretty at the #1 spot come Sunday with very little competition from any of the other new or returning movies.

Possibly that's because all the rest of the new movies are opening in fewer than 1,500 theaters, and despite opening in nearly half that amount, Michel (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind) Gondry's new comedy Be Kind Rewind (New Line), starring Jack Black and Mos Def, should fare the best among them as it appeals to a hip young audience looking for quirky laughs and seeing what Gondry does next.

Blue collar comic Larry the Cable Guy has found a niche audience in the South and Midwest, but his latest comedy Witless Protection (Lionsgate) is getting the smallest release so far, showing that the studio might not have as much faith in the comic after last year's Delta Farce bombed. Presumably, the movie will be targeted more towards the area where Larry's fans reside, but that's still not pointing to a very big audience, especially with a much smaller marketing campaign.

Not too many big changes since Tuesday, although the insanely wide release of Paramount's The Spiderwick Chronicles into 3,847 theaters, including IMAX, and with the new Indiana Jones trailer attached to it, I've decided to up my prediction closer to where I had it before I saw tracking numbers for the film (which frankly, is not painting a very pretty picture of it doing much better than last year's The Golden Compass, or even worse). Still, with the extended weekend and being the only strong family/kiddie fare even with Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus hanging onto theaters. I'm also adding a little more onto the weekends for Step Up 2 the Streets and the Universal romantic comedy Definitely, Maybe, which have been building up buzz over the next few days and could have stronger weekends as alternatives to the action and effects movies.

Updated Predictions (All predictions are for the four-day holiday weekend) -

1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $36.2 million N/A (down .1 million) ($7 - 7.5 million on Thursday)

2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $28.3 million N/A
(up 1.9 million) ($4.5 - 5 million on Thursday)

3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $18.4 million N/A (up .6 million) ($5.5 - 6 million on Thursday)

4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $15.5 million -28% (same) ($5 million on Thursday)

5. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $12.2 million -25% (same) ($3.5 million on Thursday)

6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $10.3 million N/A (up .7 million) ($3.5 - 4 million on Thursday)

7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) - $6.2 million -41% (same)

8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.3 million -24% (down .3 million)

9. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.0 million -25% (same, though up one spot)

10. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $3.8 million -29% (down .4 million and one spot)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the special Valentine's and Presidents' Day weekend edition, and this might be a difficult weekend to predict with all four wide releases opening one day early to bring in some VD business, some of which might or might not take away from their business over the four-day weekend. In general, there's some strong choices this weekend that will offer something for everyone with only a little overlap, mostly between the two big budget effects movies based on young people's books that will get ultra-wide releases this weekend.

The movie to beat this weekend is the latest project from the filmmakers who introduced Brad Pitt to Angelina Jolie, director Doug Liman and writer Simon Kinberg (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), and their sci-fi action flick Jumper (20th Century Fox) that reunites Hayden Christensen and Samuel L. Jackson from the "Star Wars" prequels. With the strongest draw for older boys and men under 25, it's likely to win the weekend with $35 million or more, only held back by the amount of business it might lose to some of the other movies.

Younger fantasy fans might prefer something like The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon), starring Freddie "I've Never Met a Fantasy Film I Didn't Appear In" Highmore, based on the popular young adult books, which will probably be the first choice for families looking for something to take the kids to over the extended holiday weekend. It's less likely to be as frontloaded to Thursday and Friday as Jumper, and it should do enough business over Saturday and Sunday to bring it closer to the $30 million mark with help from its run in IMAX theaters.

Not too many changes from earlier in the week (i.e. yesterday) except that Warner Bros. is giving their romantic action-comedy Fool's Gold a much wider release into over 3,100 theaters, something which pretty much guarantees its placement in the top slot based on tracking and early buzz. Martin Lawrence's Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins is looking more and more like it might not find that much of an audience even though second place with over $15 million would still be a good showing for it. With a theater count closer to 1,000, Vince Vaughn's Wild Wild West Comedy Show still has a chance at squeaking into the Top 10, though it might still be too wide.

Updated Predictions -

1. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $24.3 million N/A (up 1 million)

2. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $18.2 million N/A (down .2 million)

3. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds… (Disney) - $15.0 million -52%

4. The Eye (Lionsgate) - $6.3 million -49% (- .2 million)

5. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $5.1 million -40%

6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5 million -35%

7. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.2 million -38% (up .1 million)

8. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $3.7 million - 48%

9. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $3.5 million -52%

10. Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show (Picturehouse) $3.0 million N/A (up .2 million)

For the third or fourth weekend in a row, two movies will be vying for the top spot and this week, you might be able to flip a coin and come up with a winner, but here at the Weekend Warrior, we're going with the reunion of Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson in the romantic adventure Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.), which looks like a cross between Romancing the Stone and National Treasure, two easy references that should help bring in a large audience, both male and female, though mostly the over-25 crowd.

It's biggest competition will be the other new movie in wide release, and though Martin Lawrence's latest comedy Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) will play in 500 fewer theaters, it does have all the elements that will appeal to the African-American audience that won't be as interested in some of the other choices. It should hold up to Fool's Gold in terms of per-theater average, but might fall short due to the smaller theater count and being more frontloaded to Friday.

Disney decided earlier this week to continue their hit concert film Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney) for a second weekend (no surprise there) but with such an exaggerated opening, due to the original announcement of it playing for only a week, it's likely to drop to more realistic levels this weekend, and possibly be greatly hurt by lack of 'tweens who haven't already rushed out to see it.

Definitely looks like we underestimated the power of the ten-year-old girls in the country, because since our earlier predictions, many of the screenings of Hannah Montana and Miley Cirus' concert movie have sold out through advance sales on Fandango, who reported two days ago that ticket sales for the movie have made up 91% of their sales over the last week. Another thing that wasn't taken into consideration is the $15 - 20 being charged by some theaters for tickets to the movie which apparently isn't much longer than an hour, which means they'll be able to get a lot more screenings in. Both of these things would point to a much bigger opening than we previously predicted, showing a similar fanaticism for the movie as for the Hannah Montana concert tour last year. What that in mind, we can expect Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds to take the top spot and potentially try to set a new per-theatre average record although the business might be very much frontloaded to the Friday screenings.

This puts Lionsgate's The Eye at #2 with roughly the amount we predicted originally and everything else much along the same line as before, although the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans will probably tank this weekend after a dismal week where it was down from #1 to #5 by Wednesday.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds… (Disney) - $20.6 million N/A (up $7 million!)

2. The Eye (Lionsgate) - $14.4 million N/A (Up .2 million)

3. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $8.5 million - 53%

4. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $8.2 million -39%

5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $7.4 million -27%

6. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $7.0 million -63% (down .9 million)

7. Over Her Dead Body (New Line) - $6.8 million N/A (up .2 million)

8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $6.5 million -38%

9. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $6.1 million -53%

10. Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) - $6.0 million -47%

11. There WIll Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.6 million -6%

12. Strange Wilderness (Paramount) - $3.5 million N/A

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where after a January only eventful for a single record-breaking movie, we kick off the month of February with Super Bowl weekend, which means however a movie does on Friday, it's going to have trouble maintaining that business over the entire weekend, especially movies geared towards guys.

No one will probably be very surprised if that's the case with the horror remake The Eye (Lionsgate), starring Jessica Alba, continuing the string of J-horror remakes--despite being based on a Hong Kong production by Thai filmmakers The Pang Brothers (The Messengers)--as well as the tradition of horror movies being opened over Super Bowl weekend, knowing that they'll do very well on Friday and then quickly crash and burn. With Alba on board, this one has more star power than the normal Super Bowl horror movie, but the recent Alba thriller Awake didn't fare well even with less competition.

It's going to have some heavy competition for the top spot with the concert movie Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney), which opens in just 680 theatres nationwide, but should be able to capitalize on the enormous fanaticism for the young singer/starlet from tween and younger girls that have sold out her concerts nationwide. The chance to see the concert in Disney 3D might be the next best thing to being there and one can expect Cyrus' young fans to flock to see this in theatres for its limited week-long run in IMAX theatres with higher ticket prices allowing for a bigger opening than last week's U2 3D.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

After setting a new MLK Jr. weekend record, the J.J. Abrams-produced monster movie Cloverfield (Paramount) was clobbered by two new entries, and while the spoof comedy Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) and Sylvester Stallone's return as Rambo (Lionsgate) were running pretty close on Friday, the Spartans remained ahead over the weekend, grossing an estimated $18.7 million in 2,605 theaters compared to Rambo's $18.1 million. Ironically, neither movie was screened for critics until opening day proving the studio theory that reviews rarely help movies like these.

The Diane Lane serial killer thriller Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) also did relatively well, bringing in $11.2 million in 2,368 theaters as it opened in fifth place.

Okay, it's only been one day since this week's predictions were posted so there aren't too many changes now that we have actual theatre counts, although it certainly looks like J.J. Abrams' Cloverfield isn't holding up as well as originally thought. It still should remain ahead of Sylvester Stallone's return as Rambo, which should be a "Friday Night Special" holding very little traction over the weekend. The spoof comedy Meet the Spartans will take away some of its potential business, and it should also keep Diane Lane's serial killer thriller Untraceable under the $10 million mark for the weekend.

The big unknown is still Paramount Vantage's dance movie How She Move but it should be interesting to see it jockeying for position in the lower half of the Top 10 against the studio's Oscar nominated There Will Be Blood from P. T. Anderson.

Reexpanding into over 1,000 theaters after its multiple Oscar nominations, Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton starring George Clooney should bring in an additional $3.5 to 4 million over the weekend, just ahead of its Oscar competition, Joel and Ethan Coen's No Country for Old Men, which will be in roughly the same number of theaters.

Updated Predictions -

1. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $18.6 million -54% (down -.9 mill.)

2. Rambo (Lionsgate) - $16.6 million N/A (down .1)

3. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $14.3 million -38% (same)

4. Meet the Spartans (20th Century Fox) - $12.4 million N/A (up .6)

5. Untraceable (Sony/Screen Gems) - $9.3 million N/A (same)

6. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $8.6 million -39% (same)

7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $7.5 million -25% (same)

8. How She Move (Paramount Vantage) - $4.8 million N/A (up .2 mil)

9. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $4.7 million +62% (up .3 mil and one place)

10. Mad Money (Overture) - $4.3 million -42% (down .2 mil and one place)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we have one of those handy-dandy stripped-down columns this week to allow your faithful box office analyst to focus on the movies playing at the Sundance Film Festival. This minimal column is dedicated to the memory and family of Heath Ledger, a great actor and a tragic loss to film with his sudden and very unexpected death.

This weekend wraps up the month of January with four new movies in wide release, undaunted by the fact that business tends to nosedive as the month comes to a close. After the success of his last sequel Rocky Balboa, Sylvester Stallone is back writing, directing and starring as Rambo (Lionsgate) in the return of the violent military man, but in this case, it seems like Stallone might be going back to the well one time too many with this character, and it might not have enough of a fanbase remaining to bring them back. It also will be facing the second weekend of last week’s record-breaking Cloverfield, which should remain on top with a significant drop from the holiday weekend, so Rambo should wind up somewhere in the high-teens and second place.

Not too much of a change from earlier in the week as it still looks like the J.J. Abrams produced Cloverfield and the romantic comedy 27 Dresses should dominate the box office.

It also looks like the Coens' No Country for Old Men won't go as wide as originally planned due to not taking the cake at the Golden Globes--it probably will expand wider next weekend after Oscar nominations-- while Atonement should see a nice bump with an expansion into 341 more theaters after its own Globe win on Sunday.

Updated Predictions (all 4-day predictions) -

1. Cloverfield (Paramount) - $42.2 million N/A (up 1 million)

2. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $22.8 million N/A (same)

3. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $14.7 million -24% (same)

4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $11.5 million -16% (same)

5. First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) - $11.0 million -33% (down 1 million and 1 spot)

6. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $8.0 million -29% (up .2 million)

7. Mad Money (Overture Films) - $7.6 million N/A (up .1 million)

8. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $7.3 million -22% (same)

9. Atonement (Focus Features) - $5.4 million +28%

10. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $5.0 million -37% (down .3 million and 1 spot)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where the extended Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend is all about two movies with only one of them having a chance at setting a new January opening record. That would be the enigmatic new film produced by "Alias" and "Lost" creator J.J. Abrams known as Cloverfield (Paramount), a fairly low-budget monster movie about an attack on New York City all captured on the hand-held digital cameras of those who experienced it first-hand. With a huge amount of curiosity and buzz going into the long weekend, one shouldn't be too surprised if it makes more than $40 million over the four-day weekend with a good chance at topping the January opening record of Star Wars: Special Edition. Then again, there's also a danger of it being this year's Snakes on a Plane if the expectations have been built too high due to the internet hype, although that will have more effect next weekend if that's the case.

On the other hand, Katherine Heigl's new romantic comedy 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox), being released as counter-programming, has far more solid buzz from a number of well-attended early sneak previews, and its wedding themes should be of more interest to older girls and women who have only had Hilary Swank's P.S. I Love You as an option.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The box office continues to remain healthy as two star-packed movies vied for the top spot with over $19 million each, but after playing in 16 theaters for two weeks, Rob Reiner's The Bucket List (Warner Bros.), starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, exploded into over 2,900 theaters nationwide where it amassed an estimated $19.5 million for the weekend. Ice Cube's latest comedy First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) opened in 700 fewer theaters but averaged over $8,500 to come in a close second with an estimated $19 million.

Although the indie comedy Juno (Fox Searchlight) had been #1 at the box office for most of the past week, it had to settle for third place with the entry of two new comedies opening in most regions. Still, it dropped only 12% from last weekend to make another $14 million over the weekend, and with $71.2 million in box office receipts, Juno is only a day or two away from becoming Fox Searchlight's highest grossing movie to date, guaranteed to surpass the $71.5 million made by the 2005 Oscar-nominee Sideways.

In the last two days, we've had a bit of a shake-up in the Top 10 mostly from Fox Searchlight expanding their hit comedy Juno into far more theaters after it won a couple Critics' Choice Awards last week and in close to 2,500 theaters, it shouldn't have a problem moving up another notch to top the box office in its 6th weekend.

Also, Rob Reiner's The Bucket List starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman has been getting a ton of advertising and closer to 3,000 theaters, so it should do better in wide release, particularly in suburban areas, than its holiday platform release heralded. Look for it to be a neck-and-neck race for the weekend with Juno squeezing out a win.

With two strong comedies, Sony/Screen Gem's First Sunday only has a chance at appealing to black audiences and the teens who haven't seen Juno but ultimately, it will get trampled with so many stronger comedies in theaters. (Morgan Freeman might pull some of that older African-American audience to see Bucket List.)

Uwe Boll's In the Name of the King has ended up in almost a thousand less theaters than originally estimated despite a ton of TV ads, so now it's unlikely to get into the Top 10, probably winding up just outside.

Other expanding movies include Atonement into just under a thousand, which should allow it remain in the top 10 and both the Spanish horror film The Orphanage and the Afghanistan-based drama The Kite Runner both are expanding into close to 700 theaters but probably will end up in the $1.5 to 2.5 million range.

Updated Predictions -

1. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $13.9 million - 13% (up $1.7 mil.)

2. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $12.5 million +3000% (up $2.3 mil.)

3. First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) - $11.7 million N/A (down $1.6 mil)

4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $11.4 million -40% (down .1 million)

5. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $9.0 million -45% (down .2 million)

6. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $8.9 million -45% (same)

7. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Universal) - $6.4 million N/A (down .8 million)

8. Atonement (Focus) - $5.2 million -38%

9. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) - $5.1 million -59% (down .6 million)

10. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $5.1 million -35% (down .2 million)

- In the Name of the King (Freestyle) - $3.9 million N/A

- The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) - $2.1 million +21%

- The Orphanage (Picturehouse) - $1.6 million 320%

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we're back in full-on box office analysis mode after taking a much-needed week off. This week, we have three new movies in wide release plus two limited releases expanding nationwide after playing in select cities over the holidays.

The easy winner of the weekend should be the urban comedy First Sunday (Sony/Screen Gems) starring Ice Cube and Tracy Morgan, directed by famed urban playwright David E. Talpert, a combination that should help bring in a strong African-American demographic that might not have much interest in the other movies playing in theatres.

After two weeks in limited release, Rob Reiner's dramedy The Bucket List (Warner Bros.), starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, opens nationwide into over 2,700 theatres, which should be enough theatres to help it place in the Top 5 even if it hasn't exactly been making waves in limited release. Expect it to end up somewhere around $10 million thanks to Nicholson and Freeman's older demographic, but it probably won't do much better than that.

Six years after their previous feature film, the talking animated vegetables are back for The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything - A VeggieTales Movie (Universal), which might be able to jump in and take advantage of the amount of time Fox's Alvin and the Chipmunks has been in theatres to offer a solid follow-up, despite opening in less than 1,500 theatres. Expect a moderate opening with a possible expansion to help it do more business over the four-day weekend next week.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The normally slow first month of the year once again became the perfect time to open a low-key horror movie and bring in some business, as previously seen with Universal's White Noise and Eli Roth's Hostel. This time, it was the remake of J-horror movie One Missed Call that saw an opportunity and grabbed it with an estimated opening weekend of $13.5 million in 2,240 theaters--an average of over $6k per theaters--surpassing early expectations and studio tracking after an opening day of over $5 million.

Even so, it would have to settle for fifth place for the weekend behind a number of stronger returning movies including Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) starring Nicolas Cage, which remained on top for a third weekend in a row with $20.2 million, down 43% from last week. So far, it has grossed $171 million and it's just a few million short of matching the total gross of the original National Treasure.

Happy New Year and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the special 2008 lite kick-off edition, where the only new movie in wide release is a remake of the little-known Japanese horror flick One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) starring Shannyn Sossamon and Edward Burns. As the only new movie, it might do a little business among teens thanks to its PG-13 rating, at least enough to get into the Top 10, but with so many people returning to work and school, Friday's going to be pretty dead, so it's doubtful the movie can do much business beyond that. Expect it to end up somewhere near Warner Bros.' romantic comedy P.S. I Love You and Sony's The Water Horse in their fourth and third weekends respectively. Nicolas Cage's National Treasure should get an easy pass for a rare third weekend at #1 unless those darn Chipmunks continue to explode beyond any expectations.

Weekend Predictions -

1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $20.2 million -44%

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $17.3 million - 41%

3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $14.6 million - 47%

4. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $8.8 -17%

5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) - $6.7 million -44%

6. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $5.4 million -42%

7. One Missed Call (Warner Bros.) - $5.3 million N/A

8. The Water Horse (Sony) - $5.3 million -43%

9. Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (Fox) - $4.7 million -53%

10. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $4.4 million -47%

11. The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company) $3.4 million -44%

There are also a couple limited releases opening this week, which you can read about after the jump.

We got the Best and now here's the "worst", at least in my opinion, of the over 300 movies I saw in 2007. Yes, some of these I walked out of and believe me, I feel somewhat bad about including those, but at the same time, I know if I stayed any longer, they would have ended up even lower on the list. They were that awful and reprehensible. The ones I did wish I walked out on but stayed through the end never got better and probably never will get better.

As much as I wanted to include movies like War and Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding and the recent dog Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem on this list as well as a few others, my attempt to limit the list to 25 was very difficult, because there were so many movies I wanted to trash one more time before putting them into the vault, hopefully never to see or write about them ever again.

And away we go...

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The last weekend of the year was even busier than normal between the five new movies from last week and three new movies added on Tuesday, but while Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox) was expected to destroy all competition, that's not quite what happened, as it could barely hold its own against a number of returning movies including a little underrated indie that exploded over the holidays.

Even so, Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) remained on top for a second weekend with $35.6 million, a 20% drop from its opening before Christmas, bringing its total to $124 million in just ten days. In their third weekend together, the family film Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) overtook Will Smith's sci-fi thriller I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) to take second place with $30 million and a cumulative gross of $142.4 million. Legend dropped to third with $27.5 million and $194.5 million total, putting it in line to cross the $200 million mark by the end of the year on Tuesday, placing it amongst the Top 10 grossers for 2007.

After opening on Christmas Day with $9.5 million in just over 2,500 theaters, Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox) quickly tanked, dropping drastically over the next few days to the point where it only made $10 million over the weekend and $26.8 million over the six days, roughly $10 million less than the original movie made in its first weekend.

Even more embarrassing for the creature battle sequel was that Fox Searchlight's indie comedy Juno beat it into the Top 5 by a mere quarter of a million dollars, grossing $10.3 million in its first wide release into less than a thousand theatres, seeing a 200% increase from before Christmas as it moved up five places. The award-nominated comedy from Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody and starring Ellen Page had the highest per-theatre average in the top 10 of roughly $10.3k per theatre, and it's grossed an astounding $25.7 million after less than a month in theaters.

Things are looking a lot clearer now that we have the actual box office for the pre-Christmas weekend but most of our weekend predictions remain fairly close with a few exceptions. (Unfortunately, we didn't get any screen counts for the weekend, which doesn't help matters.)

Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem did better than expected on Tuesday but quickly tanked on Wednesday, so it's looking like it will end up more in the $15 million range for the weekend. The Water Horse will probably end up just slightly under our earlier prediction and Juno will wind up well above. As expected many of the movies that opened last weekend are having strong legs over the week but we'll see how that translates over the weekend. The big surprise is how Tim Burton and Johnny Depp's Sweeney Todd continues to drop while other movies pick up business so we may see Hilary Swank's P.S. I Love You overtake it, if it maintains the business it's picked up over the holidays.

Updated Predictions -

1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $40.5 million - 11% (same)

2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $27.3 million - 19% (down .7 million)

3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $23.8 million - 16% (down .8 million)

4. Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (Fox) - $15.3 million N/A (Down $2.5 million!)

5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal) - $11.3 million +18% (Up .7 million)

6. The Water Horse (Sony) - $9.8 million N/A (down 1 million)

7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $8.4 million +29% (up .9 million)

8. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $8.2 million - 12% (up .4 million)

9. The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Co.) $7.6 million N/A (same)

10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $6.9 million +59% (up $1.5 million)

Well, it's that time of year again and as usual, I'm behind the pack on sharing my list of top movies of the year. The first thing one must set aside is the thinking that this is a list of the "best movies of 2007" since that would be far too subjective. There are plenty of movies on here that technically might not be considered the best filmmaking, but these movies are the ones that had the most impact and effect on me, so look at it more as my list of "favorite movies of the year."

This has been an especially tough year getting this list down to 25 choices because out of the over 300 movies I've seen, many of them twice or even three times, so many of them were considered worthy of a 9/10 or higher, with only one exception, that I had to weigh them all against each other and take more factors into account than usual. Surprisingly, I wound up with far more comedies and genre films in my list than ever, mostly thanks to filmmakers like Judd Apatow, Edgar Wright and Bong Joon-ho. It probably isn't too big a coincident that many of my favorite movies came out earlier in the year or played at festivals, allowing me to see them two or three times by year's end, although a couple of them I've seen even more times than that.

The list starts after the jump...

Writing about the box office every week might always be my first love, but I'm really proud of how my interviewing skills have improved and how the resulting interviews have turned out this year. Without question, I did even more exclusive interviews with some of my favorite filmmakers and actors than the year before, starting at the Sundance Film Festival and continuing through the entire year. Unfortunately, the nature of the entertainment business is that these things have a very short lifespan on the front page of ComingSoon.net so if you didn't read them before the movie came out, you probably missed them. These are interviews that were fun or were with people who I generally liked talking to, and no, it's not too coincidental that many of the people on this list are either British or New Yorkers with very few exceptions… because let's face it, New York and the U.K. are great!

I'd like to dedicate these interviews to my good friend Daniel Robert Epstein who sadly, passed away very suddenly this year. The guy was a real inspiration to me, as he was probably one of the best interviewers on the web, and it was a huge loss to have him taken from us so suddenly, which really pushed me to try to live up to the standards he set for internet interviews.

Without further editorial or comment, here are 25 or so interviews I really enjoyed doing this year (after the bump):

Welcome back to the last Weekend Warrior of 2007 and the last weekend of the year starts early with three new movies opening wide tomorrow on Christmas Day, as well as a popular limited release expanding significantly wider. Although Disney’s National Treasure: Book of Secrets and Will Smith’s I Am Legend will probably hold onto a significant amount of business, some of them will probably cut into the latter, most notably Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox), a sequel to the successful 2004 franchise face-off, which should make a play for the #1 or 2 spot on Christmas Day, but will likely drop-off over the course of the week to wind up third or fourth place by the weekend.

A new family movie that should thrive from the lack of family fare in theatres is the fantasy adventure The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony), about a boy who finds a creature that ultimately turns into the mythic beast within Loch Ness, but it doesn’t have a particularly strong cast and it may be too British for American moviegoers.

On the other hand, Denzel Washington's second movie as a director The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Co.), about a debating teacher who makes a difference with three kids by inspiring them to strive for bigger challenges, is getting a huge push from producer Oprah Winfrey, which should help it do very well over the next week despite its moderate release into less than 1,500 theaters. One can expect to see some impressive numbers for what should be the first choice for most African-American audiences over the next week.

Also, Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s acclaimed comedy Juno (Fox Searchlight), starring the multiple award-nominee Ellen Page, will expand nationwide into nearly 1,000 theatres on Christmas Day, and the buzz behind the movie should help it make another $10 to 11 million over the next six days before it expands even more in the new year. (It's a classic case of Fox Searchlight's impressive ability of building word-of-mouth and expanding at just the right pace to take advantage of it.)

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

This was a busy pre-Christmas weekend with five new movies in wide release trying to shake up last week's juggernaut duo of Will Smith's I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) and the family comedy Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox). The Top 10 did indeed look very different as it turned into a battle of the box office stars to see which of them could convince holiday travelers and shoppers to take in a movie amidst their Christmas planning.

The winner of that battle was clearly Nicolas Cage, starring in the first sequel of his career as he returned for producer Jerry Bruckheimer's National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney), which grossed an estimated $45.5 million in its opening weekend, an opening 30% higher than the original movie that might have been even higher if not for the pre-holiday downturn in theaters.

Dropping to second place, Will Smith's sci-fi thriller I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) took a 56% tumble to make room for the anticipated sequel, grossing $34.3 million in its second weekend after grossing over $100 million in its first week. With a gross of $137.5 million, it has already topped Ridley Scott's American Gangster as the biggest movie of the year's 4th quarter.

In third place, the family holiday comedy Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) wasn't hit nearly as hard in its second weekend, with a modest 35% drop from its astounding opening weekend, adding roughly $29 million to its impressive take of $84.8 million.

Fourth place was a tight race between four enormous box office stars with Johnny Depp and Tim Burton on one side and Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts on the other. While the former's take on the musical Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks) won out on Friday, it was hit hard on Saturday, dropping down to fifth below the Hanks-Roberts political flick Charlie Wilson's War (Universal), which grossed an estimated $9.6 million to Sweeney Todd's $9.3 million. Granted, the Burton-Depp film was playing in half as many theatres as Charlie Wilson, and these estimates based on Friday and Saturday numbers could prove low for both movies if things pick up on Sunday.

This is the last update for the year but essentially, National Treasure, Charlie Wilson's War and Walk Hard are down slightly from our predictions earlier in the week. National Treasure is getting significantly more theatres but will probably be hurt by the holiday traveling weekend, while Tim Burton's Sweeny Todd and the Hilary Swank romantic comedy P.S. I Love You are up slightly, both with a slight increase in theatre counts from our estimates earlier in the week. Should be a decent weekend with at least $150 million grossed by the Top 10 but being the killer pre-holiday weekend, one can expect everything to do worse than expected but then pick up a huge amount of business next week.

Also, look for Juno to make a play into the Top 10 just narrowly defeating Atonement as both of them expand into roughly 300 theatres.

Oh, and remember that next week's column, the last of the year, will be live on ComingSoon.net on Monday, just in time for Christmas!

Updated Predictions -

1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $45.8 million N/A (-2.8 million)

2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $33.8 million -56% (same)

3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $24.8 million -44% (down -.4 million)

4. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $14.6 million N/A (+1.3 million)

5. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) - $10.8 million N/A (-.5 million)

6. Walk Hard (Sony) - $9.4 million N/A (-.1 million)

7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $8.1 million N/A (+.9 million)

8. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $4.3 million -53% (+.1 million)

9. Enchanted (Walt Disney) - $3.3 million -41% (same)

10. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $3.0 million +100% (NEW)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies, and after an absolutely nutty crazy busy weekend, we've reached the last weekend before Christmas, preceding a week where everybody and their family who haven't seen a movie all year heads to the movie theater. This weekend tends to be hard to predict since so many people are doing their last minute shopping or traveling early for the holidays and movies aren't exactly the first thing on everyone's mind. Very often, movies opening this weekend tend to underperform but then make 5 or 6 times the weekend amount by the time they leave theaters the following January. Most if not all people will have Monday off, being Christmas Eve, so there should be less frontloading to Friday, although there's just as likely to be people traveling on Friday and Saturday.

Still, it's a great time for the sequel to Nicolas Cage's biggest blockbuster hit to date National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) to be out there to grab the millions who loved the first movie and want to see more of Benjamin Gates' adventures. While the pre-Christmas weekend (and stronger than expected openings for I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks) might keep it under the $50 million mark this weekend, with so many people off work and school over the next two weeks, one can expect this to give Will Smith a run as the top grossing holiday movie.

Cage has some rough competition among older audiences with the reteaming of Johnny Depp and Tim Burton for their version of Stephen Sondheim's musical Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks) and Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in the political drama Charlie Wilson's War (Universal), although the latter will more likely be duking it out for fifth place with the Judd Apatow produced musical comedy Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) starring John C. Reilly and Jenna Fischer. Either way, the latter two will be pushing for $40 to 50 million total, while the Sondheim musical could end up grossing over $80 million as it starts stacking up some inevitable awards for Depp and Burton.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

In one of the most astounding weekends since the summer, two movies opened and far exceeded all expectations, predictions and studio tracking as Will Smith opened his latest sci-fi action flick I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) in December with the type of opening weekend that's genearlly only seen during the summer months. With an estimated opening of $76.5 million in regular and IMAX theatres, an average of over $21,000 per theater, Legend has set a new opening record for Smith as well as the new record for December, surpassing The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, the finale to the popular fantasy trilogy which previously held the record with $72.6 million.

Even more surprising might be the success of Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) in finding a huge family audience to the tune of $45 million, more than DreamWorks' highly-publicized Bee Movie last month, but produced for just $60 million rather than the $150 million spent on the Seinfeld comedy. Alvin averaged nearly $13,000 per theatre over the weekend, becoming one of the top 8 openers for the month of December, and it should continue to do well over the busy holiday week to come.

As it gets closer to the opening of Will Smith's new movie, we're going to give a little more weight to the IMax screenings and that special early footage from Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, which should be worth another $3 to 5 million for the weekend even opening in a December weekend where things usually slow down. (There just hasn't been a big movie since Enchanted a few weeks back so we're probably due another hit.) With Smith's movie taking over the IMAX screens, Robert Zemeckis' Beowulf loses nearly half its theaters and is likely to crash down to the bottom of the Top 10 without much chance of picking things up over the weekend.

Updated Predictions -

1. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $50.6 million N/A (up $3 million)

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) - $15.7 million (up .4 million)

3. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $13.7 million -47%

4. Enchanted (Disney) - $6.6 million -38%

5. The Perfect Holiday (Yari Film Group) - $4.3 million N/A

6. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $3.3 million -20% (down .1)

7. Fred Claus (Warner Bros) - $3.1 million -28% (up .2)

8. This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) - $3.1 million -39% (up .1)

9. August Rush (Warner Bros.) - $2.3 million -38% (same)

10. Beowulf (Paramount) - $2.1 million -53% (down .3)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies.

As we head into three of the busiest weekends of the holiday movie season, we kick things off with what might be one of the biggest movies of the holiday season, that of course being I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) helmed by Constantine's Francis Lawrence. A straight-on action genre film, Smith's first since 2005's I, Robot, it should be another successful hit, although opening so close to Christmas might keep it just under the $50 million mark, and it might have a hard time maintaining that business with so many big movies being released the following week.

Then there's Alvin and the Chipmunks, a holiday family movie starring the loveable Christmas critters with the squeaky voices, which is 100% kids' fare for the under-10 crowd and the poor, pathetic parents who get dragged to see it. While the quality might be better than Fox's version of Garfield and Fat Albert--could it possibly be worse?--it's likely to have a moderate to decent opening and then make most of its money based on the holiday legs that help all family films.

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies, where once again, we have just one new movie in wide release, that being the fantasy epic The Golden Compass (New Line), based on the first of Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" books, starring Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig and newcomer Dakota Blue Richards. With no other movies to claim any business away from it, a definitive victory over the weekend box office should be in store, even if it doesn't match the success of New Line's Lord of the Rings franchise or Disney/Walden Media's The Chronicles of Narnia. There may be some tentative parents wondering if they should bring their kids based on the complex storytelling and possible anti-religious sentiment in Pullman's books (which are completely non-existent in the movie) but fantasy fans in their teens and older should give this a look, and word-of-mouth should help carry it through the holidays even with some heavy competition on the way from Will Smith, Johnny Depp and Tom Hanks.

This Week's Predictions -

1. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $37.4 million N/A

2. Enchanted (Disney) - $10.2 million -45%

3. This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) - $4.5 million -44%

4. Beowulf (Paramount) - $4.4 million -46%

5. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) - $3.4 million - 38%

6. August Rush (Warner Bros.) - $3.2 million - 37%

7. Hitman (20th Century Fox) - $3.1 million -48%

8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $2.9 million -35%

9. Awake (The Weinstein Co.) - $2.8 million -52%

10. Bee Movie (DreamWorks) - $2.6 million -42%

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Only one new movie opened in wide release this weekend, that being Hayden Christensen and Jessica Alba's medical thriller Awake, but struck by the usual post-Thanksgiving decline, it grossed just $6 million in 2,000 theatres, allowing Disney's Enchanted and Sony/Screen Gems' ensemble holiday film This Christmas to remain in the Top 2 placements for a second weekend in a row.

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies, where we're just barely recovering from the always rough Thanksgiving weekend. Thankfully, there's only one new movie in wide release this weekend, a rarity in this day and age. That movie is Joby Harold's medical thriller Awake (MGM/The Weinstein Company), starring Hayden Christiansen and Jessica Alba. Although it might offer a bit of morbid curiosity to a handful of moviegoers looking for something new to see this weekend, the generally vapid weekend after Thanksgiving won't have very much thriving business to offer, and it's likely to be struck by the same ennui that most post-Thanksgiving openers receive. It won't help that it's likely to be overshadowed by last week's big hits like Disney's Enchanted and Sony/Screen Gems' This Christmas, both which should sustain their positions despite expectedly large post-holiday drops.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Enchanted (Disney) - $17.5 million -50%

2. This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) - $8.8 million -51%

3. Beowulf (Paramount) - $8.5 million - 48%

4. Awake (The Weinstein Company) - $7.2 million N/A

5. Hitman (20th Century Fox) - $5.8 million -55%

6. Bee Movie (DreamWorks) - $5.5 million -53%

7. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) - $5.1 million -52%

8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $5.0 million -38%

9. American Gangster (Universal) - $4.9 million -45%

10. August Rush (Warner Bros.) - $4.7 million -51%

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Two new movies dominated the Thanksgiving weekend, bringing in more business than the other new movies combined: Disney's Enchanted, a combination of animation and live action starring Amy Adams and Patrick Dempsey, and Sony/Screen Gems' ensemble holiday film This Christmas.

While Enchanted went into the weekend as the projected victor by opening in over 3,600 theaters, its estimated five-day take of $50 million surpassed most expectations, as it becomes the second-highest grossing movie to open over Thanksgiving weekend after Disney's own Toy Story 2 in 1999. The fantasy-comedy opened with over $8 million on Wednesday, itself the second-highest gross for the day before Thanksgiving, and after grossing another $6.5 million on Thursday, it would go onto make $35.5 million over the post-Thanksgiving weekend, the sixth largest amount grossed in that time frame.

This Christmas opened in the fewest theaters of the new openers, just over 1800, yet it claimed the largest per-theatre average in the top 10, averaging over $10,000 in the three days, compared to Enchanted's $9,472, to bring in $27.1 million in its first five days and $18.6 million over the three-day weekend, a definitive second place win.

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we're getting our predictions in by the skin of our teeth!

The year is almost over but Thanksgiving weekend starts another distinct phase of the holiday season where studios start putting their best foot forward in hopes of their movies sticking around through Christmas and New Year's where a lot of money can be made. Of course, this doesn't always happen since most people have five completely free days to see any of the new movies in theatres they may want to see, which tends to make the Thanksgiving releases more frontloaded than normal. Thanksgiving weekend is also a great time for those who don't go to movies often to get the whole family together and catch up on movies they may have missed.

While that will certainly help movies like Bee Movie and Fred Claus this weekend, it seems very likely that Disney's latest family film, Enchanted, a combination live action and animated movie starring Amy Adams… (we'll take a pause here to swoon)… will take advantage of how long the other two movies have already been in theatres to offer holiday shoppers, particularly families with small children and young girls, an obvious choice this weekend. It won't hurt either that it's opening in significantly more theatres than any of the other new movies this weekend.

Still, the most interesting battle of the weekend will likely be between the R-rated "adult movies", both of which may be the first choice among teen and older males, couples without kids and the non-family crowd, even as they also will both have to compete with the huge buzz backing the Coen Brothers' long-awaited No Country for Old Men which will expand nationwide on Wednesday. Thanksgiving weekend has rarely been a good weekend to release a non-family movie with only a few exceptions, and having three potentially strong movies each with their own draw could essentially dilute the market keeping any of them from having as big an opening as they may have in other weekends.

Luc Besson took the popular video game Hitman (20th Century Fox) and turned it into an action vehicle for Timothy Olyphant (Live Free or Die Hard), which will hope to entice the younger male fanbase of the games, but it's likely that Frank Darabont's latest movie Stephen King's The Mist (Dimension Films), which has generated a lot of early buzz, will win out over the weekend merely because it will have more appeal to older audiences and women. Either way, both movies might be hurt by the presence of the other, and Hitman is likely to do a lot of its business on Wednesday and Thursday and not so much over the weekend.

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we're slightly humiliated by how poorly all of last weekend's movies did compared to our predictions, but we're right back on the proverbial horse with the pre-Thanksgiving weekend which has always seen a boost in the box office. With that in mind, Robert Zemeckis' third animated film to use performance capture technology (Paramount), featuring the likes of Ray Winstone, Angelina Jolie and Anthony Hopkins donning the blue sensored pajamas, should have a fairly decent opening helped by a simultaneous release into IMAX and 3D venues. Unlike most other animated movies, this is a PG-13 movie for the teen and older adults who'll be familiar with the epic poem or just want to get some needed action and adventure to kick off their holiday season, but it will probably skew more male just by its nature.

Dustin Hoffman and Natalie Portman try their hands at kiddie fare in Zach Helm's Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Fox Walden), a wacky G-Rated fantasy that should be a strong draw for the youngest kids looking for pretty colors and magical toys in the weeks before Santa comes, though parents might be turned off by what looks like another movie starring a decent actor acting annoying ala Mike Myers in The Cat in the Hat.

Hoping to find some of the coveted Oprah Book Club audience, Gabriel Garcia Marquez's Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) is brought to the big screen by Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral) with Spanish star Javier Bardem, and though it should be a strong draw for Latin audiences, the fact it's not in Spanish might be considered sacrilege, and it might prove to have been better as a limited release even with a moderate theatre count. One should expect Javier Bardem's other movie No Country for Old Men (Miramax) from the Coen Brothers to make its first appearance in the top 10 and depending on how many theatres it expands into, it stands a good chance to beat Love in the Time of Cholera despite being in significantly fewer theatres.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

There was a shake-up in the Top 2 films at the box office, but it didn't come in the form of either of the star-studded debuts, as both Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) starring Vince Vaughn and Lions for Lambs (United Artists) starring Tom Cruise and Meryl Streep failed to beat either of last week's big openers. And yet, this weekend, the top spot went to DreamWorks' animated Bee Movie, which moved into the #1 position with an estimated $26 million. Its $72 million gross is still a long way from its $150 million production budget, but it brings it closer to the $80 million made by Ridley Scott's American Gangster (Universal) after ten days, as it dropped 44% with $24.3 million in its second weekend.

The family holiday comedy Fred Claus underperformed with $19.2 million in 3,603 theatres, settling for third, although the holiday themes guarantee that it will maintain strong business over the next month and a half.

Tom Cruise and Robert Redford teamed for the political drama Lions for Lambs (United Artists) but their combined star power with that of Meryl Streep failed to make more than $6.7 million in 2,215 theatres as it opened in fourth place.

My pal Gitesh at Box Office Guru was nice enough to remind me that Monday is Veteran's Day, which means no school and less of a drop for the family and kids movies on Sunday. That and an enhanced theatre count of over 3,600 for Warner Bros.' Fred Clause means that it's likely to make closer than $30 million, although it's still going to be splitting up a lot of its potential family business with DreamWorks' Bee Movie and will be relying more on the obligatory holiday film legs. The other two new movies, both opening in less than 2,300 theatres, will end up closer to the middle and bottom of the Top 10 with very specific audiences and not nearly the marketing budget for Fred Claus.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) - $28.6 million N/A (up $1.4 million)

2. American Gangster (Universal) - $23.0 million -47% (up .3 million)

3. Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $22.6 million -41% (up .5 million)

4. Lions for Lambs (United Artists/MGM) - $10.2 million N/A (same)

5. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $5.2 million - 34% (down .1)

6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $5.0 million -52% (same)

7. P2 (Summit Entertainment) - $2.8 million N/A (up .1 million)

8. The Game Plan (Disney) - $2.4 million – 38% (down .1 million)

9. After Dark Horrorfest 2007 (After Dark Films) - $2.1 million N/A (same)

10. Martian Child (New Line) - $2.0 million (same)

After an amazing kick off to November and the holiday movie season, we get the first actual holiday movie of the season, the first of many actually, and that is the Warner Bros. holiday comedy Fred Claus (Warner Bros.), which will have to take on DreamWorks' Bee Movie for the family audiences in its second weekend, though it should still come out in the lead thanks to the draw of its stars Vince Vaughn and Paul Giamatti and the general desire around this time of year to start thinking about the holidays and everything they represent.

The political war drama Lions for Lambs (United Artists/MGM) has the benefits of a strong cast including box office superstar (and co-producer) Tom Cruise, Robert Redford and Meryl Streep, and that should keep it suffering a similar fate as New Line's recent global thriller bomb Rendition, though the nature of the movie might polarize audiences too much to do much business in the Red States, even as it does well in major cities from those who've already seen Ridley Scott's American Gangster.

Hoping to find a few horror fans weeks after Halloween with movies like Saw IV and 30 Days of Night starting to trail off, new indie distributor Summit Entertainment releases the thriller P2 produced by The Hills Have Eyes' Alexandre Aja, but to many, it will look a bit too much like the After Dark bomb Captivity and it'll have to compete with that distributor's annual After Dark Horrorfest 2007, which will be just as much or more of a draw to horror fans even though the fest can only be seen in 330 theatres nationwide. Expect there to be a bit of a logjam at the bottom of the top 10 between the horror fest, last week's Martian Child and the vampire flick 30 Days of Night.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Going into the weekend, two new movies were vying for $40 million opening, mirroring last year when George Miller's Happy Feet took on the James Bond relaunch Casino Royale. This weekend, director Ridley Scott's R-rated crime drama American Gangster (Universal) proved that putting two bonafide box office stars into a movie with a strong premise can get a lot of people into theatres, and Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe helped American Gangster win the weekend over DreamWorks' animated Bee Movie from the mind of Jerry Seinfeld, which had to settle for second place despite opening in 900 more theatres.

After an impressive opening day of nearly $16 million, American Gangster grossed an estimated $46.3 million over the weekend, averaging more than $15,000 per theatre, while Bee Movie didn't quite make its projected $40 million, instead averaging less than $10,000 in 3,928 theatres to gross $39.1 million its opening weekend. American Gangster becomes the biggest opening movie for both Washington and Crowe, as well as the second highest opening movie for Scott after the 2001 Silence of the Lambs sequel, Hannibal.

Call me crazy but despite the flack I got earlier in the week for what some considered a high prediction for Ridley Scott's American Gangster, and even though the actual theatre count is 100 less than my earlier projection, I still think that the movie is going to be seen as the kind of must-see event movie that far surpasses expectations. The only thing keeping me from making a prediction in the $50 - 60 million range ala 8 Mile really is the running time and the piracy issue. I personally don't feel that saying Denzel Washington movies only makes so much money is a viable argument because his movies do make a lot because he's popular and put him in a crime drama ala The Departed can only appeal to an even larger audience.

DreamWorks' animated Bee Movie is also getting about 200 more theatres than I projected, so I've increased my prediction of that to just over $40 million, although I don't think it will be strong enough to withstand the coming movies. Either way, we have two guaranteed $100 million movies opening this weekend, the first since the summer.

New Line's drama Martian Child still isn't looking very strong and with even fewer theatres than projected, $5 million might be a struggle.

Updated Predictions -

1. American Gangster (Universal) - $45.1 million N/A (up $2.7 million!)

2. Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $40.3 million N/A (up $1.6 million!)

3. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $13.8 million -57% (down .2 million)

4. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $7.5 million -37% (up .1 million)

5. Martian Child (New Line) - $4.9 million N/A (down .4 million)

6. The Game Plan (Disney) - $3.6 million -43% (up .1 million)

7. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $3.2 million -53% (same)

8. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) - $3.1 million -37% (same)

9. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $2.9 million -48% (same)

10. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $2.4 million -38% (same)

After the jump, you can read a brief preview of next week's column.

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, and after the weak October month ended on a high note thanks to the "Saw" franchise, the holiday season officially kicks off with two movies that will hope to reinvigorate the dismal box office, and Ridley Scott's latest movie, the crime drama American Gangster (Universal), reteaming superstars Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe for the first time in 12 years, should capitalize on the interest in the genre following the success last year of Martin Scorsese's The Departed. That interest combined with Denzel Washington's normal box office draw, particularly among urban males who haven't had a strong event movie like this in a long time, should bring in enough of an audience to make it the top movie of the weekend, though its take might be hurt somewhat by the leak of the movie onto the internet last week.

Offering some healthy competition in its counter-programming, Jerry Seinfeld's animated comedy Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount) will appeal to a much-neglected family audience who has only had Disney's The Game Plan over the last few months. Although computer animated movies have seen a bit of a lethargic downturn in recent years, the appeal of it being Seinfeld's first major new work since the end of his hugely popular sitcom nine years ago should bring in a lot wider audience than normal kid fare.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

For the past two years, every time October comes to a close, the box office report nearly wrote itself thanks to a certain unstoppable horror franchise, and this year was no exception as the fourth chapter Saw IV (Lionsgate) opened with slightly less than the last chapter, an estimated $32.1 million, after making nearly the same amount as its predecessor on Friday. It averaged an impressive $10k per theatre to become the 6th highest opening movie for the month of October and amongst the top 5 horror sequels.

Opening in a strong second was Peter Hedges' Dan in Real Life (Touchstone), starring Steve Carell, with an estimated $12 million, proving that strong and smart counter-programming to the established horror franchise could do well among the audiences neglected by the gory R-rated option.

There isn't much to add from earlier in the week except that Lars and the Real Girl (MGM) won't be going as wide as we expected but Wes Anderson's The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) will be expanding into 698 theatres, but that probably won't be enough to get it into the Top 10, as it winds up just outside with $2.2 million. There's still a tight race for third place between 30 Days of Night and Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? which might not clear up until actuals are announced on Monday, but otherwise, the returning movies will fall behind the two new movies in wide release.

Final Predictions -

1. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $28.9 million N/A (down .3 million)

2. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $8.2 million N/A (up .3 million)

3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $7.0 million -43% (same)

4. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $6.9 million -57% (up .2 million)

5. The Game Plan (Disney) - $6.1 million -25% (up .2 million)

6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $4.4 million -34% (down .2 million)

7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $3.5 million -36% (same)

8. We Own the Night (Sony) - 3.0 million -45% (up .1 million)

9. Tim Burton's Nightmare Before X-Mas (Disney) - $2.8 million -48% (new)

10. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – 2.7 million – 52% (same)

- The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $2.2 million (new)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where after a dismally over-crowded weekend, October ends with another "Saw" movie arriving to save the box office, along with a movie that might be a harder sell. Continuing the annual tradition of taking over the weekend before Halloween, the "mother of all torture porn" franchise is back, going into its fourth installment Saw IV (Lionsgate). The creators of the franchise, James Wan and Leigh Whannell, didn't write this one and Tobin Bell is the last man standing (sort of) as the murderous mastermind Jigsaw, but some fans who weren't so thrilled with the last installment might wait for DVD on this one, which means it might have a softer opening and shorter stay in theatres. While Saw II saved a flagging box office in 2005, Saw IV may be that one movie too many in a franchise that starts the downwards slide, although one can expect it will still top the box office, but with less than $30 million this time.

Meanwhile, Peter (Pieces in April) Hedges' comedy Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone), starring Steve Carell, will be released in nearly half as many theatres, trying to act as counter-programming although it's being sold as a light romantic comedy when in fact it's a film with a lot more depth. Hopefully, the fanbase Carell built up with NBC's "The Office" and popular movies like The 40-Year-Old Virgin will help bring in that audience, especially with so few of the existing movies in theatres making a mark, but this one is still likely to end up under $10 million.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

It was another dismal weekend at the box office, marred by the most new movies in wide release in a long time (seven) with another one expanding wider, few of them really breaking out, and it's a bigger shame when the movie that brings in the most business per-theatre in the top 10 is a 3D reissue of a movie that's nearly 14 years old. (More on that below.)

Still, the Sam Raimi produced vampire flick 30 Days of Night (Sony), based on the popular graphic novel, came out in first place as expected with an estimated $16 million in 2,855 theatres. The Josh Hartnett led horror-thriller averaged $5,604 per theatre, which is good but not great compared to other horror movies opening in October.

The only other new movie to get into the Top 5 was Ben Affleck's directorial debut
Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), which grossed $6 million in 1,713 theatres, scoring the second highest per-theatre for the new releases. (Other studios have claimed that Miramax are overestimating the movie to get into the Top 5.)

A day later and this weekend is still a mess, although it's fairly clear what will end up on top (Sony's 30 Days of Night) and what will end up near the bottom (DreamWorks' Things We Lost in the Fire) with a lot of movies squooshed in between. Helped by the biggest theatre count for a new movie, Fox Atomic's sports comedy The Comebacks should be able to squeeze out the adult dramas for third place with under $10 million, and Ben Affleck's Gone, Baby, Gone should be helped by positive reviews to give Rendition a run for fourth place despite opening in nearly 500 fewer theatres, though it also might lose some of its audience to the other movies.

Paramount Vantage will expand Sean Penn's Into the Wild into just over 650 theatres this weekend, which should allow it to make roughly $2.3 - 2.5 million, not enough to get into the Top 10. It will probably end up around the same area as the animated The Ten Commandments which will be opening in 830 theatres, building on the potential to find a Christian audience, and both should do better than Freestyle Releasing's Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour, which may have trouble making a million dollars. Disney's rerelease of Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas in Disney Digital 3D into over 500 theatres should bring the movie another $3 million or slightly more, again not enough to get into the crowded Top 10.

Updated Predictions -

1. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $21.6 million N/A (up .9 million)

2. Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $10.8 million -49% (same)

3. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) - $9.4 million N/A (up .2 million)

4. Rendition (New Line) - $8.2 million N/A (down .3 million)

5. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $7.7 million N/A (up .9 million)

6. The Game Plan (Disney) - $7.6 million -35% (up .3 million)

7. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) – $6.3 million -40% (up .3 million)

8. We Own the Night (Sony) - $6.0 million - 45% (up .2 million)

9. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks) - $4.0 million -45% (up .1 million)

10. Things We Lost in the Fire (DreamWorks) - $3.8 million N/A (up .2 million)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, as October motors along with six new movies in wide release, and the only one that looks like a sure thing is 30 Days of Night (Sony/Ghost House Pictures), based on the Steve Niles and Ben Templesmith graphic novel about savage vampires let loose on an Alaskan town. Being the first horror movie in a month where audiences are starving for them should help this high concept horror movie starring Josh Hartnett and Melissa George top the box office with over $20 million. It will probably be the first choice for 17 to 25 year old audiences, although the neglected younger teen crowd might also be amused by the sports movie spoof The Comebacks (Fox Atomic), which might do okay business due to how easy it is to market the genre and a lack of strong comedies. (And let's not forget that underage teens might have to buy tickets to other movies to sneak into 30 Days of Night.)

Surprisingly, half the movies being released this weekend are adult-oriented dramas with strong star power, all of which will be fighting for the same group of moviegoers. Rendition (New Line), starring Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal and Meryl Streep, might suffer from some of the same problems faced by political thrillers like The Kingdom and Paul Haggis' In the Valley of Elah but it should still come out ahead of Ben Affleck's directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), starring his brother Casey, Morgan Freeman and Ed Harris. DreamWorks' teary drama Things We Lost in the Fire featuring the strong pairing of Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro, is an even darker drama that will have to rely on word-of-mouth to build on what should probably be a small opening weekend towards the bottom of the Top 10.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

This was a weekend for writer/directors to shine, but while there was a lot of star power on display in many of the new movies, it was the latest from playwright-mogul Tyler Perry that was able to bring in the biggest audience of his female African-American fans to see his third movie as a director, Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate). Featuring the return of Janet Jackson to the big screen for the first time since 2000's Nutty Professor II: The Klumps, Perry's latest play-turned-movie grossed an estimated $21.5 million its opening weekend in just 2,011 theatres, fewer than his previous two movies.

Tony Gilroy's corporate thriller Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.), starring George Clooney, came out just ahead of James Gray's third film, the police drama We Own the Night (Sony) starring Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg, both which ended up with roughly $11 million. Neither of the two new movies from respected writer/directors was able to keep The Rock's family film The Game Plan (Disney) from having a third strong weekend, dropping to #2 with $11.6 million.

Shekhar Kapur's Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), which returned Cate Blanchett to the role of the legendary British queen, followed up its lukewarm to hateful reviews with a disappointing opening in sixth place with just $6.2 million in 2,001 theatres.

Not much has changed, just really minor things based on theatre counts, generally more for Michael Clayton and Across the Universe and less for Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?, although the latter is still likely to be sitting pretty at the top of the box office both on Friday and for the weekend. What's bizarre is that there are only three movies playing in more than 3,000 theatres this weekend, and none of them are likely to end up in the Top 3. (Maybe Disney's The Game Plan if either of the adult thrillers fail to deliver.) With none of the new movies playing at more than 3,000 sites and none of next week's six new movies opening that wide either, one has to wonder how many screens will be showing to empty rooms this month.

Updated Predictions -

1. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $15.6 million N/A (same)

2. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) - $11.7 million +1600% (up .1 million)

3. We Own the Night (Sony) - $11.3 million N/A (same)

4. The Game Plan (Disney) - $10.8 million -35% (up .1 million)

5. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $8.1 million - 41% (same)

6. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $7.5 million N/A (down .1 million)

7. The Kingdom (Universal) - $5.6 million -43% (up .2 million)

8. Across the Universe (Sony) - $3.0 million +53% (up .3 million)

9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $2.3 million - 48% (down .1 million)

10. The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) - $2.2 million - 40% (same)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, marking the 6th Anniversary of our weekly box office analysis/preview in one form or another. (Anyone even remember what the column was originally titled back in its days pre-ComingSoon?) As is always the case in October, there are way too many movies and far too little time, and like last week, it doesn't seem like any of them will really break out, even if there may be a surprise or two.

Back when I thought Ben Stiller's The Heartbreak Kid was going to make $28 million last weekend--and no, I don't know what I was thinking--I assumed it would remain #1 for a second weekend in a row. Since that's not likely to happen, let's look at what the other possibilities are. The two strongest new movies are James (The Yards) Gray's police drama We Own the Night (Sony) and Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate), each opening in just 2,000 theatres with their own gender demographic that should help them bring in a decent amount of business, especially in the bigger cities. Neither of them is opening in as many theatres as Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.), starring George Clooney, which will expand into this weekend, and that movie is more likely to cut into the business for the Joaquin Phoenix-Mark Wahlberg cop flick than Perry's movie. With older guys having to choose between those two movies, that should allow Tyler Perry's avid fanbase of African-American women to help him get his third #1 movie.

We Own the Night will probably end up in a close race for second place with Clooney's corporate thriller and Disney's The Game Plan, while women and girls will also have other choices like Shekhar Kapur's period sequel Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), starring Cate Blanchett, or Julie Taymor's Beatles musical Across the Universe (Sony), which doubles its theatres after four solid weeks of gross in limited release. Both of those should end up in the bottom half of the Top 10, the latter having already done a lot of its business in big cities, and there should be a bit of a logjam between returning movies to fill-out the Top 10.

There's more info about the new movies after the jump but before you go there, why not sign up for the latest season of EZ1 Productions' Winter Box Office Game? It gives you a chance to take on the Weekend Warrior in trying to figure out which movies will make the most money this weekend. Check it out!

Not too many changes from Tuesday, except that The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) has been able to find a lot more theatres, and it's likely to be a strong draw for women and young girls who've read the novel or are fans of Austen, allowing it to break into the low end of the Top 10. Ben Stiller and the Farrelly Brotehrs' The Heartbreak Kid is still going to be the winner of the wekeend, while the other new releases will wind up below some of the returning movies with Fox Walden's The Seeker being helped by its ultra-wide release.

Updated Predictions -

1. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $28.3 million N/A (down .2)

2. The Game Plan (Disney) - $14.3 million -38% (same)

3. The Kingdom (Universal) - $9.8 million -43% (same)

4. The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) - $8.4 million N/A (down .4)

5. Feel the Noise (Sony/Tristar) - $4.1 million N/A (down .1)

6. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $3.8 million -52% (up .1)

7. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $3.2 million -49% (up .1)

8. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $2.7 million – 35% (same)

9. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $2.0 million 1041% (new entry)

10. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) - $1.9 million -48% (down .2)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, and after a weekend with such a close call at the box office (well at least on Friday), this weekend is a bit more cut and dry, because when you take Ben Stiller, a huge box office star, and team him with the Farrelly Brothers, who helmed Stiller's earliest hit There's Something About Mary and you have a bonafide way to kick off October with a veritable comedy explosion!

Nearly guaranteed to open at the top, it's just a question whether their remake of The Heartbreak Kid will cross the $30 million mark like DreamWorks' other 2007 comedies, Eddie Murphy's Norbit and Will Ferrell's Blades of Glory, or whether its R-rating and less-than-ideal fall release will have it opening somewhere in the mid-20s.
There's a fairly open field for a comedy and little competition from the other weekend prospects, which are somewhat dicier: The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) is being given a release into over 3,000 theatres with not a lot of promotion or interest to support it, while Feel the Noise (Sony/Tristar) is another one of those "urban" dance dramas that tends to do well in select areas like You Got Served (which also starred R ‘n' B singer Omarion) and Stomp the Yard from earlier this year, although this one isn't going as wide as either of those. Expect the Fox Walden movie to end up under $10 million, making a push for third place against Peter Berg's The Kingdom, while Feel the Noise should wind up in fifth place with less than $5 million.

Also, Sony Classics, daringly (or rather foolhardily), will expand their romantic comedy The Jane Austen Book Club nationwide into 800 theatres this weekend, but it's likely to remain well outside the Top 10 with roughly a million dollars or slightly more.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films and check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Four years ago this weekend, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson starred in Peter Berg's action-comedy The Rundown, but in an odd twist of fate, the collaborators were forced to face each other at the box office and Johnson's family comedy The Game Plan (Disney) held a decisive win by grossing an estimated $22.7 million to the $17.7 million earned by Berg's Saudi thriller The Kingdom, starring Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner.

The Weekend Warrior looks to be choking a bit this week, because it seems very likely that Disney's marketing of the Rock family comedy The Game Plan is going to have a similar effect on seriously neglected family audiences as 2005's The Pacifier, and though Disney is releasing it in over 3,100 theatres (and 300 more theatres than Peter Berg's The Kingdom), the October release will keep it closer to the $20 million mark. Still, this means that we're not as sure today about The Kingdom being #1 for the weekend, but it's still likely to win Friday due to school cutting into The Game Plan's business.

MGM's romantic drama Feast of Love, well let's just say even our modest prediction of $3 million might be somewhat generous, although it's been advertised enough that it could pick up the slack from older childless women who might not have interest in some of the other movies.

Warner Independent will expand Paul Haggis' In the Valley of Elah into 762 theatres on Friday, and it should end the weekend with roughly $1.7 million while Sony still isn't expanding Julie Taymor's Across the Universe despite it doing far better per theatre than In the Valley on a weekly basis.

Updated Predictions -

1. The Kingdom (Universal) - $20.5 million N/A (down $1.1 million)

2. The Game Plan (Disney) - $19.8 million N/A (up $2 million)

3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $9.5 million -59% (down .2 million)

4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $7.6 million -44% (down .1 million)

5. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) - $4.3 million -43% (up .1 million)

6. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $4.1 million – 35% (up .1 million)

7. Eastern Promises (Focus) - $3.3 million – 42% (same)

8. Sydney White (Universal) - $3.1 million -40% (same)

9. Feast of Love (MGM) - $3.0 million N/A (down .1 million)

10. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $2.9 million -42% (same)

Welcome to the Weekend Warrior and flip a coin because for some, that might be the easiest way to decide which movie will be #1 this weekend. While Peter Berg's Middle East action-thriller The Kingdom has a lot going for it, including its star Jamie Foxx, one can't deny the success that Disney has had with family comedies and giving Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson a young daughter in The Game Plan is the type of high concept comedy premise that has worked so well for the studio in the past. Ironically, when The Kingdom director Peter Berg teamed with The Rock for the action-comedy The Rundown, it also opened in this exact same weekend four years ago, but this time, they're facing each other for the top spot. Both movies have received advance sneak previews and are being released into a similar number of theatres and while the Disney movie should close any gap over the weekend, we're going to give a slight advantage to the action-thriller since it will generally have a wider audience and more appeal to the over-20 crowd.

On the other hand, the character drama Feast of Love (MGM), starring Morgan Freeman and Greg Kinnear, isn't being released into nearly as many theatres and besides its cast, it really doesn't have very much to convince people it's worth seeing in theatres, especially with so many other choices for older audiences. It might get into the Top 10 but fairly close to the bottom.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films and check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The easy victor for the weekend was the action threequel Resident Evil: Exctinction (Sony/Screen Gems) which grossed an estimated $24 million in 2,800 theatres, exceeding the opening of its predecessor Resident Evil: Apocalypse three years ago in 400 fewer theaters, with an average of $8,400 per theatre. It's likely to end up just outside the Top 5 of September openers.

Lionsgate's latest comedy Good Luck Chuck, starring Dane Cook and Jessica Alba, did better than last year's Employee of the Month despite its R-rating, grossing an estimated $13.8 million its opening weekend, with an equally impressive average of $5,300 per theatre in second place.

Amanda Bynes suffered her first box office bomb with the comedy Sydney White (Universal), which grossed an estimated $5.3 million its opening weekend, barely half the opening of her last two comedies, to wind up in sixth place.

The big differences going into the weekend from the column earlier this week (actually yesterday) is that Julie Taymor's Across the Universe still isn't going nearly as wide as expected, expanding into 276 theatres after its impressive debut, while Richard Shepard's The Hunting Party, starring Richard Gere and Terrence Howard, will expand into 329 theatres on Friday. With fewer theatres than expected, Across the Universe should still end up in the Top 10, but possibly below The Bourne Ultimatum while The Hunting Party will end up with less than $1 million. (That is, if The Weinstein Company actually goes through with the expansion, unlike last week where they announced an expansion then cancelled it at the last minute.)

Screen Gems isn't releasing Resident Evil: Extinction into as many theatres as the last movie, but it should still end up around the same place as the previous movie, though more frontloaded towards the Friday and Thursday midnight screenings. Lionsgate is expanding the James Mangold Western 3:10 to Yuma even further, so expect it to give David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises and Amanda Bynes' Sydney White for their places in the Top 5.

Updated Predictions -

1. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $22.8 million N/A (down -.6 million)

2. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $12.9 million N/A (up .3 million)

3. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) - $7.5 million -45% (no change)

4. Eastern Promises (Focus) - $6.5 million +1084% (up .4 million)

5. Sydney White (Universal) - $6.3 million N/A (down -.2)

6. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $6.0 million -33% (up .3)

7. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $4.8 million -44% (no change)

8. Superbad (Sony) - $3.2 million - 37% (down .1)

9. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $2.6 million - 37% (no change)

10. Across the Universe (Sony) - $2.4 million 423% (down .5 million)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior with another busy weekend with lots of movies to see… or miss. The decision's all yours.

17 to 25 year old moviegoers will have the toughest choice to make this weekend between an action-horror movie with lots of gore or a raunchy sex comedy with Dane Cook and Jessica Alba with competition from last weekend's breakout limited releases which will expand wider this weekend. Based on the popular video game, the action-horror threequel Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) should continue the success of the franchise, followed by the Dane Cook-Jessica Alba R-rated comedy Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate), which should account for most of the younger male audience, although there could be some surprises bubbling under, especially with Eastern Promises (Focus) , David Cronenberg's follow-up to his hit thriller A History of Violence, opening wider this week. (Oddly, the last time a Cronenberg movie expanded wider, it also went up against the second weekend of a Jodie Foster movie and the opening of a Jessica Alba flick.) Also, Sydney White (Universal) starring Amanda Bynes might wind up being a first choice for teen and 'tween girls, but they also might go for Julie Taymor's movie musical Across the Universe, which should get into the lower end of the Top 10 as it expands into an estimated 400 theatres.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films and check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The Jodie Foster crime-thriller The Brave One (Warner Bros), directed by Neil Jordan, topped the box office with an estimated $14 million in 2,755 theaters, making it Foster's lowest-opening wide released movie since 1999's Anna and the King. Still, it held a respectable margin over the rest of the Top 10, which saw a number of tight races for various spots including 2nd place, which was very close between last week's #1, the Lionsgate Western 3:10 to Yuma and the New Line comedy Mr. Woodcock, starring Billy Bob Thornton and Sean William Scott.

Being that this week's column was late, this is the fastest update for predictions, most of them being done because my estimated theatre counts were so off. For instance, The Hunting Party (Weinstein Co.) is not opening wide on Friday after all, probably due to the less than great showing in its platform release and Dragon Wars (Freestyle) is getting more theatres this weekend and apparently, it's built a lot of buzz for itself over the past week, possibly due to the title sounding like something cool and worth watching. I still think that it will have a really low per-theatre average, doing most of its business in the big cities like L.A. and little elsewhere, but it should do better than tenth place at this point.

Either way, it's Jodie Foster for the win this weekend thanks to her regular audience and having 500 more theatres than the other two new movies.

Updated Predictions -

1. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) - $16.8 million N/A

2. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $8.2 million -42%

3. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $7.2 million N/A

4. Superbad (Sony) - $5.0 million - 35%

5. Halloween (Dimension) - $4.5 million - 52%

6. Dragon Wars (Freestyle) - $3.8 million N/A

7. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $3.4 million - 40%

8. Balls of Fury (Rogue) - $3.1 million - 45%

9. Shoot ‘Em Up (New Line) - $2.9 million - 47%

10. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $2.8 million - 45%

Greetings and welcome back to the (late) Weekend Warrior, this time brought to you from the lovely city of Toronto in the wonderful country of Canada where the Warrior is busy seeing way too many movies at this year's Toronto International Film Festival to write much more than the basics for this week's movies.

The strongest new film of the weekend that's likely to take over the top spot without much competition, is the Neil Jordan directed revenge thriller The Brave One (Warner Bros.) starring Jodie Foster, which puts her into another tough role that will appeal to those who liked her in The Panic Room and Flightplan both which opened with over $25 million. Her new movie, which is also Neil Jordan's first major studio film since Interview with a Vampire, is a darker and more violent film, which might make it a harder sell to the female audience who would normally go see a movie with a strong female heroine. Also, being released so early in September could theoretically keep the movie from bringing in the size audience to which Foster has become accustomed, and it won't be helped by the fact that there are so many other high-profile movies opening in limited release, including new movies from David Cronenberg and Paul Haggis, which will offer far too much competition in larger cities where a vigilante revenge thriller like this might normally do well.

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where a lot of bullets were sacrificed to entertain male moviegoers in two of the three new movies opening wide this weekend, since both movies feature a lot, and I mean A LOT, of shooting. Of course, that would be expected when one of the movies is called Shoot 'Em Up (New Line), but the other being a Western almost guarantees gunfire as well.

Both movies may need more than guns to take out Michael Myers' return in Rob Zombie's horror hit Halloween, but since that will probably have a big drop, the new movie with the best chance at beating it is James Mangold's Western remake 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), which has the strongest pedigree by its genre and a cast that includes Russell Crowe and Christian Bale. Although both actors have had their share of stumbles--Crowe's A Good Year was countered by Bale's Harsh Times--this movie seems more up their alley and Mangold earned himself a lot of respect from movie fans in the South and Midwest with his treatment of Johnny Cash in the biopic Walk the Line, which won Reese Witherspoon her first Oscar and Joaquin Phoenix a placement. Yuma isn't opening that wide and it will certainly appeal more to older guys than women or the teen crowd, but it should have enough solid reviews (at this writing, it's 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and positive word-of-mouth from sold-out previews this past weekend to top the box office, although being targeted to older guys and Western fans might limit how much it can make.

By comparison, Michael Davis' action flick Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) has a cast that isn't quite as strong, although Clive Owen's general popularity among both men and women should help this, especially following his role in Alfonso Cuaron's Children of Men earlier this year. Likewise, Paul Giamatti, who plays the bad guy, and Monica Belluci as the sexy vixen (not much of a challenge to be frank) have both become fairly well known from their own recent hits. Michael Davis isn't a known director on par with Mangold, but his first action flick has already generated internet buzz and interest from the promo screenings being done by New Line over the summer, including a couple at Comic-Con. The movie will also appeal to younger guys, though it will have even less interest among women to 3:10 to Yuma, if that's possible, nor does the marketing campaign seem as poppy or strong as Lionsgate's ads for the Western. The other major problem is that both movies will be looking for the same male audience, making Shoot 'Em Up a likely second choice for guys, since it might be harder to convince their dates to go see it.

For those who can't decide which movie is for them, check out my special Double Feature Review.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films and check back on Tuesday for final figures based on actual box office.

With an estimated $31 million in its first four days, Rob Zombie's remake of John Carpenter's Halloween has obliterated the previous Labor Day box office record held by The Transporter 2 ($20.2 million) and dominated the box office with more than twice the amount made by the #2 movie, the Sony comedy Superbad.

After grossing just $3 million on Wednesday and Thursday, the Rogue Pictures ping pong comedy Balls of Fury produced the company's biggest opening weekend with an estimated $13.8 million over the four-day weekend for third place.

&Not too much has changed since Tuesday, but with Balls of Fury (Rogue Pictures) opening yesterday with just $1.7 million, it looks like our earlier weekend prediction might be a little high unless it's able to pick up the slack, something which might be hard with two new movies opening, vying for the same audience.

Rob Zombie's Halloween (Dimension Films) will be opening in over 3,400 theatres, a bit higher than our earlier projections, and though it still will be very frontloaded for Friday, it looks like a shoe-in to set a new Labor Day record based on early advanced sales. On the other hand, James Wan's Death Sentence (Fox Atomic) is getting even fewer theatres than projected, though it should still be able to find some spillover audience from Halloween.

The only other major change since Tuesday is that Mr. Bean's Holiday wasn't expanded into nearly as many theatres as originally thought, so Universal will have to contend with their other sequel, The Bourne Ultimatum, staying ahead of it this weekend, as it still holds strong in over 3,200 theatres in its fifth weekend, which is almost unheard of.

Updated Predictions (all four-day predictions) -

1. Halloween (Dimension) - $23.4 million N/A (up a million from earlier prediction)

2. Superbad (Sony) - $13.6 million -25% (up .1)

3. Balls of Fury (Rogue Pictures) - $11.2 million N/A (down $.6 million from earlier prediction)

4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $10.2 million -18% (up .5 and 1 slot)

5. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) - $9.8 Million 0% (down .4 and 1 slot)

6. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) – $7.9 million -33% (same)

7. Death Sentence (Fox Atomic) - $6.3 million N/A (down .1)

8. War (Lionsgate) - $5.5 million -44% (down .3)

9. The Nanny Diaries (The Weinstein Company) - $5.3 million -30% (same)

10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $3.0 million -31% (down .3)

Check out a preview of next week after the bump.

An announcement: At the behest and begging of my beleaguered editor and due to the general lack of comments and apparent interest in this column since it moved to the blog, the stripped-down format used last weekend will now be somewhat of the norm with a few modifications along the way. Essentially, we'll have an extended write-up about the weekend and then you can read a bit more about the new movies in terms of directors, writers, plot, etc. below that. The limited releases and Chosen One will now be folded back into this as it was in the past. Hope everyone's okay with these changes, and feel free to comment if you're not.

Labor Day, the last official weekend of the summer movie season, has often been considered one of the best times to catch one of the summer movies you missed, but up until recently, it was considered one of the worst times to release a new movie. That's changed a bit in recent years and genre flicks have done particularly well during the last weekend before everyone's back to school, which may be why three of the studios who specialize in genre will be trying to make a mark this year. Currently, the highest opening Labor Day movie is Jason Statham's The Transporter 2, which opened with over $20.1 million in four days, but it's not the most money a movie has made over Labor Day weekend, as that honor goes to M. Night Shyamalan's The Sixth Sense, which grossed $29.2 million over the four-day holiday in 1999, making more than its opening weekend four weeks earlier. (Check out past years' Labor Day stats)

This Week's Predictions (all four-day predictions) -

1. Halloween (Dimension) - $22.4 million N/A

2. Superbad (Sony) - $13.5 million -25%

3. Balls of Fury (Rogue Pictures) - $11.8 million N/A

4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) - $10.3 Million 4%

5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $9.7 million -20%

6. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) – $7.9 million -33%

7. Death Sentence (Fox Atomic) - $6.4 million N/A

8. War (Lionsgate) - $5.8 million -41%

9. The Nanny Diaries (The Weinstein Company) - $5.3 million -29%

10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $3.3 million -25%

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films and check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Despite the release of six new movies in wide or semi-wide release, Sony's comedy Superbad, produced by Judd Apatow, stayed on top for a second week in a row with $18 million, while Universal's The Bourne Ultimatum and New Line's Rush Hour 3 were in a tight race for second place as each brought in just over $12 million.

The big surprise of the weekend came in the form of Rowan Atkinson's comedy sequel Mr. Bean's Holiday , which beat all the other new movies opening this weekend despite opening in significantly fewer theatres.

With a respectable drop of 45% from its impressive opening weekend, the $20 million budgeted Superbad has grossed $65 million in ten days, while the Matt Damon action thriller ends its fourth weekend with $185 million in its coffers and Brett Ratner's third Rush Hour has grossed $109 million after three weekends.

Settling for fourth place, the Rowan Atkinson comedy sequel made an estimated $10.1 million in 1,714 theatres, opening just ahead of the Lionsgate action-thriller War, starring Jet Li and Jason Statham. More significantly, the Bean sequel had the second highest per-theatre average in the Top 10, with an estimated $5,900 per site, but that's still quite a bit behind Bean's opening ten years ago. War opened in fifth place though with only $121k between them, things might change by tomorrow.

The biggest change since Tuesday is that the Weinstein Company has managed to get The Nanny Diaries into about 800 more theatres than the earlier estimates, and there's definite interest for the movie among women over 20, either who read the book or not. The question is whether they'll rush out to see the movie this weekend or whether they'll trickle in over the next few weeks. Reviews certainly haven't been kind with just 27% on Rottentomatoes, but we'll have to see if that translates to the women who might be interest in this sort of thing.

The Lionsgate action-thriller War, starring Jason Statham and Jet Li, won't have that problem because they haven't shown their movie to anyone, though it's really just going to be appealing to guys, many of whom might just go see Superbad again. While War might do well on Friday, I wouldn't expect it to do too much business after that, allowing returning movies like Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 to make up some ground by Sunday. Then again, it probably won't matter since Superbad will remain at the top by a fairly wide margin.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Superbad (Sony) - $19.5 million -41% (no change)

2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $11.5 million -43% (up .1)

3. War (Lionsgate) - $11.3 million N/A (no change)

4. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $10.7 million -50% (down .2)

5. The Nanny Diaries (The Weinstein Co.) - $10.2 million N/A (Up $2.2 million)

6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) - $5.8 million N/A (Up $.6 million)

7. Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) - $4.4 million N/A (Up $.3 million)

8. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $3.9 million -42% (Down .1)

9. Stardust (Paramount) - $3.5 million -38% (no change)

10. Hairspray (New Line) - $3.0 million -31% (no change)

11. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) - $2.8 million -54% (no change)

- Illegal Tender (Universal) - $1.1 million N/A (up .1)

- September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) - $.75 million N/A (no change)

(Labor Day preview after the jump.)

This weekend historically is one of the worst possible weekends of the year to release a movie, right up there with the first weekend of January and the last weekend of April. Because we already know the weekend is going to be fairly craptastic, this week's column will be a bit stripped-down to allow the Weary Warrior a bit of a reprise. You can still check out some comparisons for the films below here.

On paper, the action-thriller War (Lionsgate) looks like the strongest contender, helped greatly by the premise of pitting two popular action stars, Jason Statham and Jet Li, against each other. Both Statham and Li are coming off moderate solo hits in 2006 with Crank and Jet Li's Fearless both opening over $10 million, and War, directed by rap video director Philip G. Atwell, is certainly going to be a first choice for younger guys who've already seen everything else in theatres. Still, it probably won't make enough to defeat last week's box office champ Superbad in its second weekend, while it also has to face The Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 in their fourth and third weekend. With Bourne doing well due to sold word-of-mouth, it's likely it might keep War out of second place, though it will be a tight race with the Lionsgate action flick making between $10 and 12 million this weekend on its way to less than $25 million total after it gets slaughtered by the Labor Day options.

After being delayed for six months, the movie based on the best-selling novel The Nanny Diaries (The Weinstein Company) is brought to the big screen by Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, the couple that brought you the Oscar-nominated American Splendour, with Scarlett Johansson watching over the kid of a rich and snobbish Upper East Side wife played by Laura Linney. Of the new movies, it should be a first-choice for many women and girls, at least those that aren't on vacation, although Johansson really hasn't proven herself as a box office draw. It probably won't be helped by what should be generally dismal reviews from critics either, so expect it to end up somewhere between $7 and 9 million this weekend with a slight chance of seeing $20 million total.

The same can be said for Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal), the family comedy sequel that has British comic Rowan Atkinson reprising his popular, wacky character. It's been nearly ten years since the first Bean movie made Atkinson a star in this country, grossing $45 million, but Universal is opening the sequel in less theatres with very few hopes for a repeat. There really aren't that many movies in theatres for younger kids or families—granted, many of them are on vacation or back in school by now--although that didn't help Daddy Day Camp and this looks almost as bad, so look for it to end up somewhere between $5 and 6 million this weekend and under $15 million total.

Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group Releasing)
Starring Josh Hartnett, Samuel L. Jackson, Alan Alda, Kathryn Morris, Dakota Goyo, David Paymer, Harry J. Lennix, Peter Coyote, Rachel Nichols, Ryan McDonald, Stephen Strachan, Teri Hatcher
Directed by Rod Lurie (The Contender, The Last Castle, "Commander in Chief"); Written by Michael Bortman, Allison Burnett, Rod Lurie
Genre: Drama, Sports
Rated PG-13
Plot: Denver Chronicle sports writer Erik Kernan Jr. (Josh Hartnett) discovers that a local homeless man known as "Champ" (Samuel L. Jackson) may in fact be a long-missing former heavyweight contender named "Battling Bob Satterfield", and he sees that as his chance to follow in the footsteps of his successful father by writing a high-profile cover story for the newspaper magazine.
Tagline: "Based on a true story, that was based on a lie." (Wow, that's kind of a plot spoiler.)

It's been seven months since I first saw Rod Lurie's latest movie at a jam-packed premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, and it's finally seeing the light of day. While usually, the Chosen One is reserved for limited release movies, I'm just too big a fan of this movie to not give it a bit of extra attention despite this week's column being somewhat streamlined. I'm going to save most of my thoughts for my review (though if you read the blog entry above or the interviews, it becomes obvious why I love it), but I'm kind of bummed and doubtful that anyone really knows this movie exists. You see, I really think this is a strong film—well-written, acted and directed—one that should be released in October or November when critics and awards groups are thinking about who deserves to be commended on their work, but it's being released instead at the ass-end of summer in one of the worst weekends of August, and a busy one with five other movies at that. That makes me somewhat worried about its box office prospects, and as much as I love it, I just don't think the older audiences who might enjoy it really know it exists, nor do I think that enough Samuel L. Jackson or Josh Hartnett fans go to see their movies in theatres to make them an obvious draw, despite me having gone on record that this is one of Hartnett's best performances to date. With that in mind, I do hope that those who enjoy quality films and those who trust the Weekend Warrior's taste and instincts (poor souls they may be) will give this a look this weekend over something like War or one of the other movies that have already been playing and making money in theatres. In fact, I hope that it does enough business to at least stick around through Labor Day weekend, because it'll have trouble making a mark when bigger movies open in September, and it's a movie with depth and emotion that really isn't seen enough in filmmaking these days.

Interview with Josh Hartnett

Interview with Rod Lurie

Review (Coming Soon!)

(More Limited Releases and Mini-Reviews after the jump)

There aren't too many big changes since yesterday. The Judd Apatow produced Superbad (Sony) is still looking good to take the #1 spot over the weekend though the question is how much ground it can get over New Line's poorly-received sequel Rush Hour 3 in its second weekend? Might we see another Knocked Up or will the mid-August release put it more in 40 Year Old Virgin territory?

The big expansion this weekend is Miramax's pseudo-biopic Becoming Jane, starring Anne Hathaway, which nearly doubles its theatres, which should be enough for it to creep into the bottom of the Top 10.

Updated Predictions -

1. Superbad (Sony) - $27.4 million N/A

2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $22.6 million -54%

3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $18.4 million -44%

4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) - $10.5 million N/A

5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $5.8 million -49%

6. Stardust (Paramount) - $5.5 million -40%

7. Hairspray (New Line) - $4.3 million -33%

8. Underdog (Walt Disney) - $3.8 million -41%

9. The Last Legion (The Weinstein Co.) - $3.6 million N/A

10. Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $3.4 million +17%

As mentioned yestrday, I'll be writing a stripped-down version of the column for next week, but the bigger movies should be the Jason Statham-Jet Li action-thriller War and The Nanny Diaries, starring Scarlett Johansson, though neither is getting enough theatres to get them into the Top 2 for the weekend. Likewise, the Universal comedy sequel Mr. Bean's Holiday with Rowan Atkinson and Rod Lurie's Resurrecting the Champ are getting a moderately wide release, and movies like Illegal Tender and September Dawn will barely make a mark. One can expect a lot of dogs and bombs next weekend just from the nature of being released in such a late August weekend.

Welcome to the second half of August. The summer may as well be over as movies that studios don't know what to do with are unceremoniously dumped knowing that few people are around to see them. That be as it may, this is a slower weekend with just three new movies in wide release and tons of limiteds, yet we're likely to see New Line's Rush Hour 3 be knocked out of the top spot by what might be considered by some as an unexpected comedy hit. Then again, producer Judd Apatow's involvement with the high school comedy Superbad (Sony) will probably be credited for its success as he continues his unstoppable run as the king of comedy. Written by his Knocked Up star Seth Rogen with Evan Goldberg, and starring Michael Cera from "Arrested Development" and Apatow regular Jonah Hill, Sony has been campaigning this one into the ground among college-age males across the nation with tons of promo and preview screenings, and though the late August weekend might not be ideal for a huge opening weekend, it should do alright, and after a solid opening, expect it to be #1 for two weekends in a row.

With almost zero buzz going into the weekend, the Nicole Kidman thriller The Invasion (Warner Bros.), an obvious (though disguised) remake of the already remade Invasion of the Body Snatchers, is going into the weekend with lots of negative publicity from number of delays and the much-reported embellishments to the movie by producer Joel Silver's pals the Wachowski Brothers. While that might interest some of those who know about it, it'll put the film's potential fanboy audience on guard.

The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters (Picturehouse)
Starring Steve Wiebe, Billy Mitchell, Walter Day, Nicole Wiebe, Steve Sanders, Robert Mruczek, Brian Kuh, Mike Thompson
Directed by Seth Gordon
Genre: Documentary
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: This documentary examines the rivalry between two video game players as they vie to set a new record in Donkey Kong.
Tagline: "Don't get chumpatized"

We've featured a lot of serious documentaries in the Weekend Warrior over the last couple years, movies about very important topics and while Seth Gordon's The King of Kong might not be considered nearly as important as the Leonardo DiCaprio produced The 11th Hour, which also opens this week (see below), Gordon's flick is an endlessly fascinating and interesting film that explores the heated battle between two video game players to claim the Guinness world record in Donkey Kong. Yes, the arcade video game from the ‘80s. Video game legend Billy Mitchell held that record for over twenty years until Steve Wiebe, an unemployed family man from Washington State, broke the record and proceeded to have problems holding it, and he quickly learned that the system for judging and recording the high scores was flawed, sinc it was judged by a group of fans and friends of Mitchell. This hilarious doc, filled with dozens of odd supporting players, many of them Mitchell's minions, follows the competition between an undefeated champion and the unassuming challenger, and you might find find yourself appalled at what Mitchell gets up to in order to retain his record and his standing, even as Wiebe flies thousands of miles to face the elusive record-holder and defend the record he rightfully set before being undermined by Mitchell's shenanigans. It's a highly entertaining sports doc unlike any other and whether you're a fan of old school video games or not, you're likely to find yourself very entertained by a documentary that owes more to sports movies like "Rocky" than any existing doc. It opens in New York and L.A. this Friday and look for our interview with Seth Gordon later this week.

My Thoughts from the Tribeca Film Festival

An Interesting Article on the Rivalry from MTV

(More movies in limited release after the jump)

Going into the weekend, the New Line action-comedy threequel Rush Hour 3 will be opening in 3,778 theatres, about 500 more than our estimates and 600 more than Rush Hour 2. Still, there doesn't seem to be as much interest or support from the critics on this one, and it's still likely to wind up under $60 million for the weekend.

Matthew Vaughn's Stardust also gets more theatres but that just doesn't seem to be getting very much interest despite strong reviews, and it's still likely to end up with significantly less than $15 million this weekend.

Cuba Gooding Jr.'s comedy sequel Daddy Day Camp didn't do well on its opening day, grossing just $773 thousand, though it's likely to do better business over the weekend, being a family movie. Skinwalkers is still not looking good but should still end up around $1.4 - $1.5 million.

Updated Predictions -

1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $56.4 million N/A

2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $33.3 million -52%

3. Stardust (Paramount) - $13.2 million N/A

4. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $12.0 million -52%

5. Underdog (Walt Disney) - $6.7 million -43%

6. Daddy Day Camp (Sony/TriStar) - $6.2 million N/A

7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal) - $5.8 million -45%

8. Hairspray (New Line) - $5.5 million -40%

9. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $5.0 million -47%

10. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) - $3.9 million -40%

-- Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $2.43 million +240%

-- Skinwalkers (After Dark Films) - $1.4 millon N/A

The second weekend in August is often the last potential weekend of the summer for a big hit, and Rush Hour 3, the action-comedy that reunites Chris Tucker and Jackie Chan, is looking to make it three weekends in a row with a $50 million opener. Considering that the previous installment opened with over $65 million six years ago, that might be seen as a disappointment, but times have changed in those six years with neither of the movie's stars nor the action-comedy genre being nearly as big as they were back in 2001. (Then again, considering how badly we underestimated both The Simpsons Movie and The Bourne Ultimatum, you may want to just add $20 million to that prediction.)

Director Matthew Vaughn (Layer Cake) adapts Neil Gaiman and Charles Vess' fantasy graphic novel Stardust and though it will be of interest to Gaiman's comic and novel-reading fans, it's not getting a particularly wide release or strong marketing push, which means it will have a hard time making much of a mark against the high profile summer blockbusters. Still, with a lot of things dropping, expect it to wind up in a distant third place.

We'll get two featured movies this week, as I thought it would be fun to have two weeks in a row with a debut from a French filmmaker named Julie... but we also can't ignore Jeffrey Blitz's little indie that could, Rocket Science…

2 Days in Paris (Samuel Goldwyn)
Starring Julie Delpy, Adam Goldberg, Daniel Brühl, Albert Delpy, Adan Jodorowsky
Written and directed by Julie Delpy (co-writer of Before Sunset)
Genre: Comedy, Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: While traveling in Europe, French photographer Marion (Julie Delpy) and her New York boyfriend Jack (Adam Goldberg) spend two days in her home city of Paris visiting her parents and encountering all of her ex-boyfriends, putting their relationship to the ultimate test.

If the thought of Chris Tucker and Jackie Chan traipsing through Paris is a bit much for you, then you might want to check out this feature film debut from Julie Delpy, who takes a similar approach to this as Richard Linklater did with Before Sunset (which Delpy co-wrote) to create a humorous travelogue of her city as seen through a couple spending two days there. Much of the humor comes from Adam Goldberg (a former boyfriend of Delpy's) playing her put-upon boyfriend who finds himself having to deal with all of her ex-lovers during their brief stop through her home and things get worse from there. It starts out very much like a situational comedy but it starts to get more serious and dramatic as things start to sour in their relationship. This festival favorite probably won't be to everyone's taste, because the thought of watching a movie about a deteriorating relationship while on vacation might hit a bit too close to some, but there's a lot of realism to the way this story is told, a lot of interesting ideas and some very funny moments with Goldberg and Delpy's real-life father who plays a similar role here. If you liked Before Sunset or broad situational comedies like The Money Pit or European Vacation, you might have fun with Delpy's debut which opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Interview with Julie Delpy (Coming Soon!)

Rocket Science (Picturehouse)
Starring Reece Daniel Thompson, Anna Kendrick, Nicholas D'Agosto, Vincent Piazza, Margo Martindale, Aaron Yoo, Josh Kay, Stephen Park, Maury Ginsberg, Utkarsh Ambudkar, Denis O'Hare, Jonah Hill
Written and directed by Jeffrey Blitz (Spellbound)
Genre: Comedy, Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: Hal Hefner (Reece Daniel Thompson) is an introverted boy from Plainsboro, New Jersey who barely speaks up for himself due to his impenetrable stutter, but he allows himself to be recruited onto his high school debating team by the aggressive Ginny Ryerson (Anna Kendrick) which he hopes will help get him closer to her.

There've been a lot of indie teen comedies set in high school in the last few years, some good and some bad, but what differentiates Rocket Science from the pack is that a lot of it is loosely based on the real story of director Jeffrey Blitz (best known for helming the Oscar-nominated documentary Spellbound), who actually had a stutter in high school and who actually did get over it by joining the debating team. One figures that a lot of the other outrageous things that happen in the movie are fictionalized but it's a great foray into dramatic features for Blitz, one that should appeal to fans of Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach due to its quirky tone and the fact that the situations will certainly strike a chord for anyone who remembers the first time they fell in love and had their heart crushed. Adding to the fun is a quirky soundtrack by someone named Eef Barzelay, interspersed with well-placed Violent Femmes tunes, and though most of the cast are unknowns, you might be surprised to see Aaron Yoo of Disturbia in a key role very different from that one, as well as a brief appearance by man-of-the-moment Jonah Hill (Knocked Up and next week's Superbad). I don't want to give too much away, because I'm still hoping to find time to write a full review, but this is a very special movie with a great cast that might one day make this a movie in a similar mold as Richard Linklater's Dazed and Confused in terms of new talent. (Blitz won an award for his direction at the Sundance Film Festival, but personally, I think it should be recognized for its sharp, smart script, which is one of the better ones this year.)

If you enjoy movies such as Wes Anderson's Rushmore or Noah Baumbach's The Squid and the Whale or the little-seen Mike Mills debut Thumbsucker, than you should enjoy Jeffrey Blitz's dramatic feature debut, which opens in New York and L.A. this weekend.

Interview with Jeffrey Blitz (by Max Evry) (Coming Soon!)

(More limited releases at the link below.)

What a difference a day makes in terms of updating the column and since it was just posted yesterday, there aren't that many changes in the numbers. The biggest changes are in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and Transformers, which both lose over 800 theatres tomorrow, and Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony's El Cantante won't be opening nearly as wide as planned, so expect that to still end up outside the Top 10 with between $2.5 and $3 million. Otherwise, everything should be more or less the same as posted yesterday.

Updated Predictions -

1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $57.2 million N/A

2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $33.8 million -54%

3. Underdog (Walt Disney) - $13.6 million N/A

4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal) - $10.5 million -45%

5. Hairspray (New Line) - $10.0 million -38%

6. Hot Rod (Paramount/SNL Films) - $9.7 million N/A

7. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $8.9 million -50%

8. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) - $6.9 million -41%

9. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $6.0 million -48%

10. Bratz (Lionsgate) - $5.2 million N/A

August kicks off with five new movies in wide release but the only one that will make any significant money or have any impact at the box office is the third chapter in the Matt Damon action-thriller trilogy The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal), making it two weeks in a row with a $50 million opening, as fans of the first two movies will finally learn the truth behind Bourne's past. It could push $60 million although its marketing campaign has been softened a bit by coming out so late in a summer full of bigger high profile movies.

With Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille gone from the Top 10, there's a pretty large opening for a kids/family movie to do well this weekend which may be why Disney's releasing Underdog, a live action talking animal movie based on the cartoon series. While it looks too dumb to bring in anyone over ten years old, it'll be one of the few choices for parents to bring their younger tots to see this weekend.

Blame It on Fidel (Koch Lorber)
Starring Nina Kervel-Bey, Julie Depardieu, Stefano Accorsi, Benjamin Feuillet
Written and directed by Julie Gavras (2nd unit on Amen) with Arnaud Cathrine
Genre: Comedy, Drama
Not rated
Plot Summary: Anna (Nina Kervel-Bey) is a spoiled 9-year-old girl from a wealthy family who must deal with the changes in her household when her parents become political activists, giving up everything to live in a poor, communal setting with strange bearded men from Latin America.

We're going with a very low-key film this week, one that's not likely to play many places besides New York and L.A. although it's another in a long line of great movies starring talented young newcomers this year, which began with The Italian and continued through Vitus and Joshua and Shane Meadows' This Is England last week. Based on the novel by Domitilla Calamai, this drama by Julie Gavras could only be dubbed a "commie-of-age" story because it literally deals with a young girl dealing with her parents' interest in communism during the early ‘70s following France's own political revolution. The material is handled with charming humor, as we see everything from Anna's viewpoint and that of her younger brother (played by adorable scene-stealer Benjamin Feuillet). They really don't understand what is going on in their house with all the changes being made, and because we only see what they see, neither do we, but it's fun to watch this story unfold and how they deal with the unknown. Nina Kervel-Bey is a delightful young find, bratty at times and sweet at others—a bit like a French Shirley Temple in some ways—and she really takes the audience on a delightful journey in this pleasant and charming first film from Julie Gavras. This very unique French film opens in New York at the Cinema Village on Friday.

(More limited releases after the jump. Sorry, but due to scheduling issues, the mini-reviews won't be added until tomorrow.)

The last weekend in July is a busy one with four new movies opening in wide release and two limited releases expanding wider. Of the four new movies, there's one that's extremely high profile, one that's being pushed heavily and two that are being dumped into the weekend with very little fanfare in a way that makes you wonder why their distributors hate them so much. (In typical fashion, After Dark Films has moved their long-delayed horror film Skinwalkers back to August at the last minute, so that's one less dumper this weekend.)

Obviously, the most anticipated movie of the weekend is 20th Century Fox's The Simpsons Movie, which brings the popular TV cartoon family to the big screen. With the animated television show's eighteen years of popularity and success under its belt, you can expect a huge audience of fans going to theatres to laugh as a group, though it's going to appeal more to guys than women. That's fine because the fanbase is fairly diehard, the kind that would rush out to see it opening weekend knowing that there's other movies to see in the next few weeks. With what could be an opening weekend upwards of $45 million, look for this to set a new opening record for a traditional animation film which is currently held by Disney's The Lion King.

Women who might not have much interest in a television cartoons turned into movies will have another option in the new Catherine Zeta-Jones "romantidramedy" No Reservations, based on the German movie Mostly Martha, and it should have enough buzz from sneak previews and from the general popularity of Zeta-Jones to open decently though it'll have a hard time getting past the high-profile blockbusters. Chances are that it'll have to settle for fifth place, especially if New Line's Hairspray gets the expected legs from opening weekend word-of-mouth.

No End in Sight (Magnolia Pictures)
Written and directed by Charles Ferguson (debut)
Genre: Documentary, Politics
Plot Summary: Author Charles Ferguson looks at the war in Iraq and how the invasion and occupation was botched by the current administration.

Interview with Charles Ferguson

Review

We've featured many political and Iraq-related docs in the Weekend Warrior in recent years, and if there's one that really stands out as being something unique in its approach, it's this doc by Charles Ferguson, his debut as a filmmaker after writing many books about information technology. It's an important addition to the string of Iraq docs because it doesn't point fingers and place blame for the wrong reasons why the U.S. got involved in the war, but instead, it's a grim and somber film that shows how things in Iraq might not be as bad as they are now if certain mistakes hadn't been made, and it does so by relaying the facts in a concise and logical way and backing them up with lots of interviews with those who saw these mistakes firsthand. Of all the documentaries made about the Iraq War, this is one of the few that is almost mandatory viewing because it doesn't just repeat a lot of the things we already know but it does a convincing job explaining how things went wrong, something which is rarely mentioned on the newscasts about bombings and terrorist attacks. It starts by showing some of the horrors but then cuts back to 9/11 and even before that to the Gulf War of the ‘90s to give a clearer picture of why the United State invaded Iraq and then shows how all the plans for a by-the-books turnover by ORHA (Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance) after the invasion was botched-up by a few rash decisions that turned the country into one ravaged by civil war and insurgency. So far, this is one of the best documentaries I've seen this year, and if you have any questions about the whys and wherefores of what's going on in Iraq, Ferguson's doc does an amazing job filling in the gaps of previous docs like "Why We Fight" and "The War Tapes." Here's hoping that Ferguson continues his career as a filmmaker, because this is the type of investigative journalism that we need to see more of in this crazy world driven by corporate media with their own issues and agendas.

Opening the film on Friday in New York at the Film Forum and in Washington, DC. at the Landmark E Street Theatres, Magnolia Pictures has also set up a special online app where you can share your own views of the war in Iraq with Ferguson, and the film is being promoted heavily through Netflix and other outlets.

(More limited releases after the jump)

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

In a very tight weekend race, the Adam Sandler-Kevin James comedy I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry took out the blockbuster sequel Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, grossing an estimated $34.8 million to Potter's $32.2 million. The New Line musical Hairspray, starring John "Grease" Travolta in drag, scored $27.8 million in 3,121 theatres, making it the top opening movie musical of all time, even though it was forced to settle for third place.

What a difference a couple days make. With reviews rolling in for Universal's I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry and it not faring well (16% on Rottentomatoes and ironically, I gave it one of the few positive reviews!), it might have a harder time defeating Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix than we originally thought. Although one presumes that the fifth movie might be hurt by the release of the 7th and final book, the leak of the latter onto the internet might mean a lot of fans will already have read it by the weekend.

On the other hand, the New Line musical Hairspray has great buzz going into the weekend and is likely to do better than our earlier prediction, maybe even giving Transformers a run for second place, and it might be the story of the weekend if it ends up faring better than Sandler's latest.

(Check out our preview of next weekend after the jump.)

Revised Predictions -

1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal) - $37.2 million N/A

2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $36.2 million -53%

3. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $20.0 million -46%

4. Hairspray (New Line) - $18.8 million N/A

5. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $11.6 million -36%

6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) – $6.8 million -40%

7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) – $4.7 million -36%

8. 1408 (Dimension) – $2.8 million -38%

9. Knocked Up (Universal) - $2.5 million -33%

10. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $2.4 million -50%

Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Rose Byrne, Cliff Curtis, Chris Evans, Troy Garity, Cillian Murphy, Hiroyuki Sanada, Benedict Wong, Michelle Yeoh
Directed by Danny Boyle (Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, Millions, The Beach, Shallow Grave); Written by Alex Garland (28 Days Later…, The Beach)
Genre: Sci-Fi, Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "If the sun dies, so do we."
Plot Summary: A group of scientists are on a mission to fly a powerful atomic bomb into the heart of the dying sun, but their mission quickly goes awry as they find the remains of a previous attempt at the same mission.
Of Note: Danny Boyle reunites with Cillian Murphy, the breakout star of his hit 28 Days Later…

Review

Danny Boyle interviews

I'm an unrepentant lifetime Danny Boyle addict, because even when he falters, which some might say was the case with The Beach and A Life Less Ordinary, he still creates the type of cinematic coup that few filmmakers can match. Sunshine is his first foray into the science fiction genre, and though it might not be what some might be expecting, there's something to say about how it greatly adds to his filmography by venturing into new territory with this movie. It's not science fiction in the "Star Wars" action vein, but it's more of a character-driven space epic, the type of creepy outer space thriller that culminated with "Alien", and it features a terrific cast of characters/actors including Cillian Murphy, reuniting with Boyle after "28 Days Later." (It also stars the Human Torch, Chris Evans, in a rare dramatic role, and he's really good in this!) If you read my review linked above, you'll see that I do have a few issues with the movie, particularly the last act, but I really thought this was a very unique take on the type of sci-fi premise we've seen many times before, and Boyle really has pulled out the stop with the movie in terms of visuals with filmmaking techniques that we haven't seen used before. That's really what's so amazing about Boyle as a filmmaker and why so many cinephiles and movie buffs love his movies, and it's not likely to be disappointed by "Sunshine" even when it turns into a bizarro slasher flick. Oddly, Fox Searchlight is opening this movie in a few cities this weekend with plans to open nationwide next weekend.

For the first time this summer, we might have a real horse race at the box office for the top spot, and it all depends on whether Warner Bros.' Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix can hold up in its second weekend against two strong new movies that will likely split up audiences. It probably won't help that the franchise will be competing against itself as J.K. Rowling releases the 7th book about the young wizard, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows," which might kill a lot of the weekend business for any of the movies targeted towards younger readers that will want to spend Saturday reading it.

Adam Sandler has such a large built-in fanbase for his comedies that $40 million opening tends to be a given, except that I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, his first movie for Universal in ten years, has such a divisive subject matter, that of gay marriage, that it might lose some of Sandler's male audience in the Red States… not that a little homophobia hurt Disney's male-bonding comedy Wild Hogs earlier this year. Expect Chuck and Larry to do well Friday, but be hurt by Sandler's normal Friday frontloading, which could make it harder for it to defeat Potter in its second weekend. It will be very close.

But it also has to contend with New Line's big screen adaptation of the hit Broadway musical Hairspray, based on John Waters' 1988 comedy, which will be a significant draw for women and yes, gay men, as it tries to continue the success of musicals like Chicago and Dreamgirls, rather than following the path of the last movie-turned-musical-turned-movie, The Producers.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Going into the weekend with nearly $65 million grossed on Wednesday and Thursday, Warner Bros.' fifth movie based on J.K. Rowling's boy wizard, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, added an estimated $77.4 million more over the weekend in 4,285 theatres, including IMAX theatres which featured an exclusive 3D sequence. The fifth "Potter" movie has grossed $140 million in its first five days. By comparison, After Dark Films' thriller Captivity, starring Elisha Cuthbert, barely made a mark, winding up outside the Top 10 with $1.5 million with a dismal average of less than $1,500 per theatre.

They've done it! Not only has Warner Bros. set a new Wednesday record with Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix's $44.32 million yesterday, but it's opening in more theatres than Spider-Man 2, expanding into 4,285 theatres over the weekend. Unfortunately, we forgot that Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End opened in over 4,300 theatres back in May so the widest release record is still intact. Still, look for Order of the Phoenix to make over $80 million this weekend as it takes on Transformers as the third or fourth biggest movie of the summer.

After Dark seems to have hit a stumbling block with the Elisha Cuthbert thriller Captivity, which is opening in 500 less theatres than the original 1,500+ theatres estimated earlier in the week, but it's also become the third movie this summer to be struck by the bootlegging bug that's hurt other films like Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II and Michael Moore's SiCKO. With that in mind, it's being knocked down a couple spots as it winds up making closer to $3 million than $5 million this weekend.

(Look for more updates after the final predictions at the link below.)

Updated Predictions -

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $83.2 million N/A (up $3.7 million from earlier in the week)

2. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $37.0 million -48% (up .2 million)

3. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $17.7 million -39% (down .1 mil.)

4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $9.3 million -47%

5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) - $6.0 million -42% (up .4 million)

6. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $4.7 million -47% (up .1 mill.)

7. 1408 (Dimension) - $4.1 million -41%

8. Knocked Up (Universal) - $3.4 million -35% (up .1 mill.)

9. Captivity (After Dark Films) - $3.1 million N/A (down 1.8 mill. from earlier prediction)

10. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $2.5 million -32% (up .1 mill.)

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix will be #1 this weekend and though the last four installments of the franchise made over $85 million their opening weekends, this is the first movie in the series based on J. K. Rowling's novels that opens on a Wednesday. It's likely that the many diehard fans will be racing out to see it as soon as possible, which could keep the weekend from crossing the $80 million mark although the $50 to 60 million it makes in its first two days should more than make up for it.

After a couple delays, After Dark Films releases the horror-thriller Captivity, starring Elisha Cuthbert, and while the best thing going for it is the controversial poster campaign and the Friday 13th release date, it's still likely to wind up outside the Top 5, which will be filled up with the popular summer blockbusters like Transformers and Ratatouille.

Talk to Me (Focus Features)
Starring Don Cheadle, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Cedric The Entertainer, Taraji P. Henson, Mike Epps, Vondie Curtis Hall, Martin Sheen
Directed by Kasi Lemmons (The Caveman's Valentine), Eve's Bayou); Written by Michael Genet (She Hate Me), Rick Famuyiwa (Brown Sugar, The Wood)
Genre: Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: After Ralph Waldo "Petey" Greene Jr. (Don Cheadle) gets out of jail in the mid-60s, he gets a job at a local Washington D.C. radio station as their morning DJ where he becomes the talk of the town due to outrageous on-air antics. Despite all the trouble Petey gets into, his program director Dewey Hughes (Chiwetel Ejiofor) hopes to take Petey to greater heights and make him an even bigger national star.
Tagline: "Never underestimate a man with something to say."

Review
Interview with Don Cheadle

I've been a big-time fan of Don Cheadle ever since he donned a cowboy outfit in Paul Thomas Anderson's Boogie Nights, but he's generally made decent choices since then with strong movies like Crash and Hotel Rwanda, and often, he's the best part of the few bad movies he's been in like Swordfish. I've also been a fan of Chiwetel Ejiofor since he starred in Stephen Frears' Dirty Pretty Things but generally been disappointed with some of his choices since then, and I always thought that Taraji P. Henson nearly stole the show from Terrence Howard in Craig Brewer's Hustle and Flow.

Considering the talent involved in this stirring period drama directed by Kasi Lemmons, it's not surprising that Talk to Me is such a good movie, centered around a radio DJ who became the voice of the people and the times during the turbulent late ‘60s where the Civil Rights movement hit a road bump with the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. in 1968. Having never heard of Ralph Waldo "Petey" Greene Jr. before seeing this movie but knowing of his legacy from shows like "As It Is" and his influence on shock jocks like Howard Stern, I was really able to appreciate what they were trying to do by showing every side of the man, both good and bad, but the movie spends just as much time dealing with Petey's relationship with his program director Dewey Hughes (Ejiofor's character), and it's a surprisingly rich film that's not your typical biopic.

I'm a little bummed that this movie is getting such a low-key limited release without a lot of promotion, because many people who might enjoy it will probably miss it or skip it, much like they did with Terrence Howard's Pride a few months back. This is a much better movie and another great role for Cheadle, as well as Ejiofor's best performance since Dirty Pretty Things, so hopefully word-of-mouth will spread by the time it opens wide on June 27. If you're into diverse films like Talk Radio, Spike Lee's Malcolm X, the recent Bobby or even Howard Stern's Private Parts you should be able to get something gout of this terrific film.

(More limited releases and mini-reviews after the jump.)

This week, we see the fifth installment of the Harry Potter saga brought to the big screen and in one week, fans of the books will be devouring the seventh and final installment of J.K. Rowling's adventures of the boy wizard, and well, let's just say that this is going to be a make or break month for Potter.

Though I haven't seen Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix yet--I'm barely finished reading the book to be honest--I already feel that J.K. Rowling is running out of steam with the premise, basically spending a lot of time setting things up to kill various characters, trying to wrap things up without leaving any possible loose ends.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

After making nearly $85 million in its first three-and-a-half days, DreamWorks' Transformers held well over the three-day weekend, grossing an estimated $67.6 million and becoming the second-highest opening movie for the 4th of July holiday frame behind Spider-Man 2. In just one week, the Michael Bay action flick has grossed approximately $152.5 million--just over its reported $150 million budget--and it's trailing just behind the original Spider-Man in terms of total gross for its first week. When it passes Spider-Man in terms of box office gross for seven days, it will make Transformers one of the most succcessful non-sequels since the webslinger's movie debut in 2002. Expect it to be the third movie this summer to gross $300 million or slightly less.

By comparison, Warner Bros.' romantic comedy License to Wed, starring Robin Williams, brought in an additional $10.4 million over the weekend after its $7.4 million over the holiday, ending up in fourth place in its first weekend.

In just four-and-a-half days, Michael Bay's Transformers has crossed the $100 million mark, adding an additional $22.4 million on Friday to put it ahead of the established Pixar film Ratatouille and Bruce Willis action sequel Live Free or Die Hard in terms of box office gross with $107.4 million. Its first Friday is pointing to a three-day weekend in the range of $62 to 65 million, and with the help of Monday previews, the DreamWorks film is the second-fastest non-sequel to get to $100 million ahead of Passion of the Christ and the first Harry Potter movie.

The Robin Williams-headlined romantic comedy License to Wed had its best day, earning $3.7 million on Friday, pointing to a weekend of roughly $10 to 11 million, though the best it can do is fourth place for the weekend. Pixar's latest continues to do well, having grossed $9.4 million yesterday to bring its total to $90 million, while Live Free or Die Hard has grossed $72.2 million after ten days.

Michael Moore's documentary SiCKO has not expanded well, making just over a million yesterday after adding 250 more theatres, and it will probably struggle to get to $20 million. At least the other Weinstein release 1408 continues to do well, as it will cross the $50 million mark today. 20th Century Fox's action sequel Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer has not been able to hold up against the competition and after losing hundreds of theatres yesterday, it will probably have another sharp decline this weekend and is unlikely to gross as much as its predecessor.

With the success of DreamWorks' Transformers in its first two and a half days, it seems likely that it will do slightly better on the weekend than originally predicted, likely to be somewhere between $60 and 65 million as it looks to take the second largest 4th of July opening away from Steven Spielberg's 2005 remake of War of the Worlds. On the other hand, Warner Bros' License to Wed, starring Robin Williams, hasn't fared particularly well in its first few days and our original prediction of just over $11 million looks doubtful at this point even with 200 more theatres being added tomorrow. The romantic comedy is likely to wind up in fifth place behind Universal's Evan Almighty unless it really rallies for business over the weekend, but it won't be helped by abysmal reviews.

(You can read more thoughts on the weekend after the updated predictions although we're going to take a break from previewing next week's box office so that everyone will check in when next week's column goes up on Tuesday.)

Updated Predictions -

1. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $62.5 million N/A (+ $3 million from earlier week prediction)

2. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $31.0 million -34% (same)

3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) – $17.2 million -49% (same)

4. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $8.3 million -45% (+ .2 million from earlier in week)

5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) – $8.0 million N/A (-$3.2 million from earlier in week)

6. 1408 (Dimension) – $6.0 million -44% (same)

7. Knocked Up (Universal) - $4.9 million -35% (down -.2 mil.)

8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $4.4 million -52% (- .2 mil.)

9. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $4.3 million -5% (+ .4 mill.)

10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $3.2 million -43% (- .2 mill.)

The Transformers train keeps rolling along as it had its best day yet on the 4th of July holiday, grossing $29.1 million. In two-and-a-half days, it has grossed $65.7 million, set a new Tuesday box office record and become the third-highest grossing movie on a Wednesday, surpassing movies like Star Wars: Episode I and Mel Gibson's The Passion of The Christ which both opened on a Wednesday. It's looking like it will be in heated battle with executive producer Steven Spielberg's War of the Worlds to become the second-highest grossing 4th of July opener over the weekend and may come close to $150 million in its first week of business.

Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille made $10.2 million on the 4th of July, up significantly from Tuesday, as was the action sequel Live Free or Die Hard, which brought in $6 million. The animated family film has pulled ahead with $72 million to Die Hard's $63.2 million.

After making over $8 million in Monday preview screenings, Paramount/DreamWorks' Transformers brought in $27.4 million in its first full day according to estimates, easily setting a new Tuesday box office record over Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest's $15.7 million made last year. It has grossed an impressive $36.3 million in just 28 hours.

The Warner Bros. comedy License to Wed made a less than spectacular $2.2 million its opening day, and though it shouldn't be nearly as frontloaded as the fan favorite summer popcorn flick, the abysmal reviews for the movie probably won't help it do very well over the weekend. It's probably looking to make around $15 million in its first six days.

According to Variety, Paramount and DreamWorks are claiming an estimated $8.8 million for Michael Bay's Transformers in its "preview screenings" in a number of theatres starting at 8pm last night. That's rougly 67% of what Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End made when it took a similar approach on Thursday May 24, before grossing just under $140 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend.

Transformers officially opens today in 4,011 theatres across the country and is expected to be helped greatly by the 4th of July holiday and the extended vacation weekend that many people will take this week. Check back tomorrow and over the next few days on how this highly-anticipated summer movie is faring.

The weekend starts very early with Michael Bay's take on Hasbro's Transformers opening on Monday night (tonight!) at 8pm and the Warner Bros. romantic comedy License to Wed, starring Robin Williams, opening on Tuesday (tomorrow!) While the former should do a lot of its business in the next few days, the latter should trickle along and still have a bit of business left over for the weekend.

Really though it's the former making all the news as it pairs executive producer Steven Spielberg with Michael Bay, arguably two of the kings of the summer box office, which means that even those who weren't fans of the toys will be interested. Starring Shia LaBeouf, John Voight and a cast of dozens on top of the popular talking changing giant robots, Transformers should bring in a lot of the biggest fans of the characters in the days surrounding the 4th of July holiday and should be able to do decently over the weekend, though the holiday being on a Wednesday will definitely make its first week gross more frontloaded.

This is a great week for movies in limited release with the latest from Werner Herzog, Rescue Dawn, and the Sundance favorite Introducing the Dwights, but I gotta go with one of my other favorites from Sundance….

Joshua (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Sam Rockwell, Vera Farmiga, Jacob Kogan, Celia Weston, Dallas Roberts, Michael McKean
Directed by George Ratliff (Hell House); Written by George Ratliff, David Gilbert
Genre: Drama, Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Plot Summary: A young boy named Joshua (Jacob Kogan) starts acting up to get the attention of his parents (Sam Rockwell, Vera Farmiga) when they bring home his baby sister, but what starts out as a mere case of new baby syndrome soon turns into something darker and deadlier as the boy starts doing things to try to drive everyone around him insane.
Tagline: "The story of a perfect boy who had a perfect plan."

Interview with George Ratliff

My Thoughts from the Sundance Film Festival

For the second weekend in a row, we have a movie starring a child who's a little different from the norm, and a movie that I discovered thanks to a film festival, this one being one of my top three films I saw at this year's Sundance Film Festival. On the one hand, it's a seriously creepy thriller, one that will really stick with you because it's so disturbing, but it also has a great deal of humor mainly coming from Sam Rockwell as the care-free and irresponsible stock broker father of this terrible tyke, and drama from the way that Joshua's machinations and mind games start to tear his family apart. If you thought that "The Omen" was the be-all-end-all in the creepy kid thriller, then you're in for a surprise with this tasty flick from George Ratliff, whose last movie was the documentary "Hell House" about Evangelical haunted mansions. It's definitely a creepy and scary film, but it doesn't rely on blood or gore to work so effectively, and it seems like it might be the kind of thing that young mothers might appreciate because it seems to understand the stress that comes from new motherhood… either that or they'll hate it because it hits too close to home. Either way, if you're into '70s horror thrillers like "Rosemary's Baby" or "The Omen" but not into those movie's supernatural angle, then this movie might be a good choice for the 4th of July weekend when it opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Today we see one of the most anticipated movies of the summer opening across the nation, one that should be another huge blockbuster for Michael Bay (you can probably figure out what I'm talking about from the title). Despite all the pervasive buzz and hype for the movie, a power struggle of sorts between the filmmakers has been going on behind the scenes that spilled out onto the internet and the media in the last few weeks. As someone who doesn't know any of the players personally, I'm trying hard not to take sides on this, but I've been discussing this pretty heavily with some of my esteemed colleagues. Everyone seems to be taking sides on who's right and who is telling the truth, often depending on their own personal allegiances or biases.

The main players in this debate are director Michael Bay and three of the movie's five main producers: Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Tom DeSanto and Don Murphy, all of whom are seemingly taking premature credit for the success of the movie and/or fingerpointing about who did or didn't do things to help make it happen. Sadly, a lot of this has come from the internet due to the access being given to those involved in making the movie, so as soon as one producer says something in the media, another one is ready to dispute or refute their claims.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Disney and Pixar Animation's 8th collaboration Ratatouille opened a bit softer than their previous films with $47.2 million, their lowest opening since A Bug's Life in 1998. After taking in $15 million on Wednesday and Thursday, 20th Century Fox's action sequel Live Free or Die Hard was able to capitalize on positive word-of-mouth to do more than twice that amount over the three day weekend, earning an estimated $33.1 million for 2nd place, and coming out a million dollars ahead of the Pixar movie with a total of $48.2 million after five days.

20th Century Fox's Live Free or Die Hard opened a bit softer than expected, making $8.86 million on Wednesday, and it will probably make around $5 million on Thursday so it'll be tough for it to get to the $38 to 41 million weekend predicted earlier this weekend. Reviews are mostly good and word-of-mouth isn't bad, and it'll get a few hundred more theatres, but with more competition on Friday, $35 million will probably be the ceiling and that might be pushing it.

That main competition comes from Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille, which will get close to 4,000 theatres and is likely to do as well or better than Cars last year. (You can read more box office updates after the jump.)

Updated Predictions

1. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $62.7 million N/A

2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $34.3 million N/A

3. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $15.2 million -53%

4. 1408 (Dimension) - $11.3 million -45%

5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $9.2 million -54%

6. Knocked Up (Universal) - $7.1 million -35%

7. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $6.0 million -47%

8. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $5.7 million N/A

9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $3.5 million -52%

10. Surf's Up (Sony) - $3.3 million -50%

11. Evening (Focus Features) - $2.9 million N/A

June comes to a close with what might be one of the biggest weekends of the month as two high profile movies compete for the top spot, with Michael Moore's long-awaited follow-up to Fahrenheit 9/11 bubbling under. Over the weekend proper, Disney and Pixar's 8th collaboration Ratatouille should have a strong lead over Bruce Willis' return as Detective John McClane in Live Free or Die Hard, but only because the action sequel opens on Wednesday and should do a lot of its business before hitting the weekend. Still, we may be looking at nearly $100 million divided between the two movies over the weekend alone, which is quite impressive.

Michael Moore's SiCKO expands moderately wide on Friday (anywhere between 250 and 1,000 theatres) and though one shouldn't expect an opening anywhere close to what Fahrenheit 9/11 made three years ago, it should do respectably due to the amount of interest and controversy that follows the filmmaker everywhere.

Vitus (Sony Classics)
Starring Teo Gheorghiu, Julika Jenkins, Urs Jucker, Bruno Ganz
Written and directed by Fredi M. Murer (Vollmond, Zones) with Peter Luisi
Genre: Drama, Foreign, Music
Rated PG
Tagline: "The story of a highly gifted boy."
Plot Summary: Vitus (Teo Gheorghiu) is a young piano-playing protege and a child genius who is much younger than the rest of his classmates. His parents are so caught up in their own things, that the boy wonders if they'll still love him if he were to be normal, something he's able to learn after an accident takes his genius and talent away from him.

As is the case with many of the movies that earn the honor of "Chosen One," this was a complete surprise that I discovered when it played as part of this year's Tribeca Film Festival. Despite having seen the movie twice already, it's somewhat hard to believe, but this Swiss import is currently residing as my favorite movie of the year so far. Yes, that's above Hot Fuzz and The Host and Once and Knocked Up, each of which I've seen numerous times and would see again in a second. It's that wonderful a film.

I'm not sure what it is about the movie that's made me such a fan, whether it's the touching story of a young boy trying to fit in despite his amazing talents or how he affects those around him or how filmmaker Fredi Murer mixes gorgeous classic music into the film, but it's a movie that works in many ways that you wouldn't expect. It's a lot of fun to see how the main character Vitus uses his genius to help his grandfather and parents and to try to win over the woman he loves (his older babysitter), and it makes this movie one of those heartwarming crowd-pleasing films that you can't help but cherish. Then on top of that, you have a really different role for Bruno Ganz, best known here for playing Adolf Hitler in Oliver Hirschbiegel's Downfall, giving a wonderful and surprisingly light-hearted performance as Vitus' beloved grandfather without batting an eyelash. There are so many amusing twists and turns to Vitus' story, especially after the story jumps forward seven years, and while I'm hesitant to give them away, seeing how this story unfolds in such a clever and funny way makes it easier to understand what makes the film so special. Surprisingly, first-time actor and real piano prodigy Teo Gheorgiu is able to hold things together with one of the best breakthrough performances of the year that's only matched by young Jacob Kogan, who stars in next week's "Chosen One," Joshua. If you're into simultaneously clever, funny and touching coming-of-age films like Lucas, Stand by Me or even something like The Goonies, then you might want to give Vitus a look when it opens in New York and L.A. on Friday. (I'm hoping to transcribe and run my interview with Murer and Gheorgiu later this week.)

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The Universal comedy sequel Evan Almighty continued the apparent jinx on sequels to Jim Carrey movies that omit the popular comic star. Despite an attempt to fill his shoes with the ultra-hot Steve Carell, who many thought stole the show in Bruce Almighty, it wound up with a disappointing estimated opening weekend of $32.1 million in 3,604 theatres. It was slightly overshadowed by the success of Dimension Films' Stephen King thriller 1408, starring John Cusack, which ended up in a tight race for second place with Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, each grossing just under $20.2 million.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

The Universal comedy sequel Evan Almighty continued the apparent jinx on sequels to Jim Carrey movies that omit the popular comic star. Despite an attempt to fill his shoes with the ultra-hot Steve Carell, who many thought stole the show in Bruce Almighty, it wound up with a disappointing estimated opening weekend of $32.1 million in 3,604 theatres. It was slightly overshadowed by the success of Dimension Films' Stephen King thriller 1408, starring John Cusack, which ended up in a tight race for second place with Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, each grossing just under $20.2 million.

As we get into the weekend, things are looking even better for Dimension Films' 1408, which adds a few more theatres but more importantly, has received a ringing endorsement from Stephen King, so his fans may be less tentative about going out to see it this weekend. Though it still might be hard for it to do more than $20 million due to its generic numerical title, it should come very close. Things aren't looking great for Universal's Evan Almighty, starring Steve Carell, which has been getting scathing reviews and has little interest among the 20-something and older crowd. It still has a good chance of making over $30 million due to the kids and religious audience, but it's not looking good for it to have much of a shelf-life with much stronger films opening in the next few weeks.

(You can read more updates after the updated predictions and the jump.)

Updated Predictions

1. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $35.6 million N/A
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $26.0 million -55%
3. 1408 (Dimension) - $19.6 million N/A
4. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $11.0 million -44%
5. Knocked Up (Universal) - $9.5 million -33%
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $6.7 million -46%
7. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) - $6.5 million N/A
8. Surf's Up (Sony) - $5.3 million -44%
9. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $5.1 million -43%
10. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) - $3.5 million -48%

The sequels keep a-comin' and while a few of this summer's offerings haven't done as well as their predecessors, that will probably be nothing compared to what happens when Steve Carell tries to step into Jim Carrey's shoes for Evan Almighty (Universal), an animal-driven comedy based on the biblical tale of Noah's Ark. Although Carell's appeal from "The Office" and The 40-Year-Old Virgin will play a large factor in getting people into theatres, it's more likely to appeal to kids and their parents than teens and adults, and it will fall way short of the opening of its predecessor Bruce Almighty.

This is a pretty dismal weekend for limited releases, and though Manufactured Landscapes is an excellent doc, I have to go with something that I think will go over better with CS/WW readers...

Black Sheep (IFC Films)
Starring Matthew Chamberlain, Tammy Davis, Oliver Driver, Peter Feeney, Glenis Levestam, Danielle Mason, Kevin McTurk, Nathan Meister, Mick Rose, Tandi Wright
Written and directed by Jonathan King (debut)
Genre: Horror, Comedy
Rated R
Tagline: "Get the flock out of here!"
Plot Summary: When he was a boy, Henry Oldfield (Nathan Meister) was scared in a sheep-related incident by his older brother Angus (Peter Feeney), forcing Henry to leave the family sheep farm to go to the city. After the death of his father, Henry returns home years later, still deathly afraid of sheep, which becomes heightened when his brother's genetic sheep experiment goes wrong causing the flock to go wild, attacking anyone who comes near them.

No, this isn't a remake of the David Spade-Chris Farley comedy classic, but a horror-comedy from New Zealand that's been making the festival rounds and is finally being released theatrically. It's another fine addition to the dark horror-comedy genre that has produced some great movies including Shaun of the Dead and The Host and Severance, all past Chosen Ones, and this one has more of a New Zealand flavor ala Peter Jackson's early flicks like "Bad Taste." Most of the humor comes from the thought of docile creatures like sheep attacking and killing people, but surprisingly some of the best laughs come from simple shots of sheep just standing there not looking particularly menacing. But don't let that fool you 'cause once they have their teeth on your throat, gore will fly in a way that will appeal to the most bloodthirsty of horror fans. I really like what first-time filmmaker Jonathan King did with this, assembling a great cast of unknowns in creating very funny character stereotypes whose interactions really make the film special, much like the best movies in this horror sub-genre. Sure, the joke does get a bit tired after a while, but one has to marvel at the make-up effects, especially in creating half-man-half-sheep creatures, and this is a movie that should have a long life well past its regular placing on the midnight track of various film festivals. It will open in New York and L.A. this weekend, and it's recommended if you like any of the movies mentioned above.

Interview with Jonathan King
My Review from Tribeca Film Festival
Watch an Exclusive Clip

Before we get to the Battle Cry, I just want to let readers know that yours truly will be setting the Movielines in this season's EZ1 Productions Movieline Game, and you still have time to register and play along if you want to match wits with the Weekend Warrior.

This week's battle cry is a special tutorial for anyone who works at a studio, whether in production, publicity or marketing, and it's called simply "How To Get Good Reviews."

A good percentage of critics and studios have already decided that reviews and critics don't matter, and yet, as long as there's somebody out there with an opinion, they will find a way to voice and share it. As long as people continue to buy newspapers or read the internet or care what other people think, they'll want to read those opinions, regardless of whether they agree or disagree with what they're reading. So here's a guide on how to get good reviews from those whose opinions seem to matter and who are read (or watched, in the case of TV critics).

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

As projected based on early estimates, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer has surpassed the opening weekend of the original movie by just $1.4 million, having grossed an estimated $57.4 million in 3,959 theatres, an average of $14.5k per site.

Warner Bros.' modernization of the classic literary detective Nancy Drew wasn't able to find nearly as much of the teen and 'tween girl audience as it hoped, pulling in just $7.1 million in business in 2,612 theatres to open in 7th place over the weekend.

ShowBIZ Data has box office estimates for Friday, and it looks like Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer will score an easy #1 this weekend with its $22.7 million estimated gross for Friday (including Thursday midnight screenings). This is $1.5 million greater than the opening of Fantastic Four two years ago, though with its PG rating, it might be slightly more kidcentric and possibly not as frontloaded. Still, one can expect an opening in the range of the first movie's $56 million, give or take a million.

Warner Bros.' Nancy Drew didn't fare nearly as well, making roughly $2.8 million on Friday and pointing to an opening weekend below $8 million, another movie made for teen girls that didn't score well with that target audience.

Not much has changed since earlier in the week except for a few of the theatre counts, but I'm holding steady on my earlier prediction that Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer will make over $60 million (helped by a release into over 3,900 theatres and a shortened running time) and that Warner Bros' Nancy Drew will barely get into the Top 5 this weekend.

(You can read my FF:RotSS mini-review and more weekend analysis after the jump.)

Revised Predictions

1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $61.7 million N/A
2. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $19.0 million -48%
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $13.1 million -34%
4. Surf's Up (Sony) - $11.2 million -38%
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $11.0 million -48%
6. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) - $10.3 million N/A
7. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $8.5 million -44%
8. Hostel: Part II (Lionsgate) - $3.8 million -54%
9. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $2.7 million -45%
10. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $2.4 million -45%

Often here on ComingSoon.net, we have to sadly announce the passing of a great actor, director or other celebrity, but yesterday, the internet entertainment industry lost one of its greats, Daniel Robert Epstein.

If you've been on the internet anytime in the last five years, you're bound to have run across one of Dan's interviews or stories, whether it be at his main stomping ground SuicideGirls or at Newsarama or UGO or FilmStew. I think it's safe to say that he probably racked more interviews in the last five years of anyone in the industry, and he wasn't just talking to actors, directors or movie people, 'cause he was fully into the comic book industry and music biz, talking to many of the greats. Like myself, he was into movies, musics and comics, and really, the guy set the litmus for what was cool. He was a true fan of great art and music who had turned that love into some of the best interviews and writing on the internet.

After a weekend where two sequels opened below expectations and below previous installments, it's rather daunting to see that the big movie this weekend is another sequel, this one being the second live-action movie starring Marvel Comics' greatest family superteam Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Although it's following a less than well-received introduction to the group, one can expect that the added bonus of the Silver Surfer will bring a lot of comic book, action and effects fans into theatres this weekend, and it should be helped by a short running time (i.e. more screenings) and a family-friendly PG rating. Look for it to open respectably on Friday as many rush out to see it, although it's likely to be as frontloaded as the previous movie.

There are only two movies in wide release this weekend but a ridiculous amount or movies in limited or platform release and yet, it was every easy to pick this week's Chosen One, the New Zealand comedy...

Eagle vs. Shark (Miramax)
Starring Loren Horsley, Jemaine Clement, Brian Sergent, Rachel House, Craig Hall, Joel Tobeck, Jackie van Beek
Written and directed by Taika Waititi (various short films)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated R
Plot Summary: Jarrod and Lily (Jemaine Clement, Loren Horsley) are two oddball outcasts who find themselves thrown together in a strange romance when they meet at a party dressed as a Shark and an Eagle, but Jarrod wind ups dumping Lily because he's focusing on a grudge match against a school bully who is returning home after nearly 20 years.
Tagline: "Luckily, love is blind."

This was one of the movies that I missed at this year's Sundance Film Festival, and I've been kicking myself ever since, even though I've been able to see the movie twice since then, and frankly, I love it so much that I'd probably see it two or three more times if given the chance. This is very much like the kind of movie that Fox Searchlight was releasing back in their banner year of 2004, kind of a mix of Garden State and Napoleon Dynamite in that it's a quirky romantic comedy, an outsider love story with a bit of a twist due to its New Zealand setting. It stars Jemaine Clement, who most Americans will have seen in his Outback Steakhouse commercials but who is one-half of the folk-comedy duo Flight of the Conchords. It's probably not much of a coincidence that Jemaine's group will be debuting their new HBO series "Flight of the Conchords" this coming Sunday, and regular fans of this column may want to watch it in order to see the Warrior's Chinatown 'hood, because parts of the show were shot there.

As far as Eagle vs. Shark, it's a very funny movie, strange and quirky and even touching at times in an endearing '80s kind of way, the kind of movie that might appeal to anyone who's ever had a crush or been in love with someone. It's a bit like one of my other Sundance favorites, Son of Rambow, in that it throws together two disparate characters who on the one hand, may seem perfect for each other, but also are so weird on their own that one can see why things might not work out. In this case, Jemaine plays Jarrod, an egotistical video game enthusiast wanting to get revenge on a school bully decades after being humiliated by him, while Loren Horsely is the droopy, emotionless Lily, who falls for Jarrod when he comes by the fast food restaurant where she works as a cashier. Adding to the mix are a bunch of funny secondary characters like Joel Tobeck as Lily's brother Damon, who does a lot of really bad impressions, and Jarrod's equally strange family. Eagle vs. Shark opens in New York and L.A. and it's recommended if you like some of the movies mentioned above, particularly Napoleon Dynamite and Garden State.

Interview with Jemaine Clement
Review

So six weeks of the summer have gone by and we've made it past the Big 3 blockbusters. With Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix moving to a Wednesday and Transformers opening on a Monday night, it's doubtful we'll have another $100 million weekend this summer and maybe not even for the rest of the year. Although this summer, we've already seen three movies pass what once seemed like an unattainable amount for a single weekend, none of them look to be breaking any records as far as domestic gross. In fact, it would be surprising if any of them even end up within the Top 10 highest grossing movies ever the way they're going, which is surprising when you consider that most of them are sequels to some of the biggest movies of the past decade.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

Three new movies opened nationwide this weekend including two high-profile sequels, but none of them lived up to expectations, as they faced the big budget blockbusters and Judd Apatow's sleeper comedy Knocked Up.

As expected, Steven Soderbergh's Ocean's Thirteen opened on top with an estimated $37 million, slightly less than the opening of both of its previous installments, despite opening in 250 more theatres than Ocean's Twelve. It averaged roughly $10,000 per theatre.

It looks like all three of the movies opening wide this weekend will wind up with disappointing showings according to Friday estimates posted at ShowBIZ Data. Steven Soderbergh's Ocean's Thirteen, the fourth threequel of the summer, made an estimated $12.4 million on Friday, $2 million less than the previous sequel Ocean's Twelve made its opening day. It will likely wind up with an opening weekend somewhere between $33 and 36 million, less than both previous movies. Considering the much higher early projections for the weekend (including the Weekend Warrior's own), that's a rather disappointing showing for a movie that received many favorable and gushing reviews despite the unpopularity of the previous installment.

The big shake-up in the Top 10 comes in the form of something I forgot to address in the column earlier this week and that's the continued success of Judd Apaow's Knocked Up, the summer's first high profile non-sequel which grossed over $30 million last weekend and has been holding up very well, making consistently more than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End every day during the week. One can look forward to a photo finish between the two movies for third place over the weekend. Even if the Apatow comedy might put a crimp on some of the sequels already in theatres, Steven Soderbergh's Ocean's Thirteen will still come in at #1 with a somewhere close to $45 million due to the renewed interest in the franchise and the significant theatre count.

You can read more, as well as my mini-review of Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II, after the...

Updated Predictions

1. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $43.5 million N/A
2. Surf's Up (Sony) - $24.8 million N/A
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $20.8 million -33%
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $20.7 million -53%
5. Hostel: Part II (Lionsgate) - $19.6 million N/A
6. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $14.5 million -48%
7. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $5.8 million -43%
8. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $3.9 million -48%
9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $1.5 million -31%
10. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $0.8 million -40%

After two weekends of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End residing at the top, it's time for three major new movies to open nationwide, and thankfully, only two of them are sequels. Almost a sure thing to take the top spot this weekend is the return of George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon and the rest of the gang in Steven Soderbergh's big budget threequel Ocean's Thirteen, a movie with such a diverse cast that it should bring in the same varied audience that enjoyed the previous two movies.

La Vie en Rose (Picturehouse)
Starring Marion Cotillard, Sylvie Testud, Clotilde Courau, Jean-Paul Rouve, Pascal Greggory, Marc Barbe, Caroline Sihol, Emmanuelle Seigner, Catherine Allegret, Gerard Depardieu, Jean-Pierre Martins
Written and directed by Olivier Dahan (co-written with Isabelle Sobelman) (Déjà Mort, La Vie Promise, Le Petit Poucet)
Genre: Biopic, Drama, Music
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: A biodrama following the life of legendary French singer Edith Piaf from the brothels of Belleville to the height of fame.

Despite my long-standing love of all types of music, I never really got into the vocal work of Edith Piaf, maybe because I'm not French. Certainly, I'm more than familiar with other cabaret singers like Lotte Lenya, who was famous for singing the Kurt Weill songbook, but Piaf somehow escaped me, which is why Olivier Dahan's musical biopic is such a welcome treat. Anyone who wasn't familiar with what Piaf went through in her tragic life, from being abandoned by her parents and raised in a brothel, to her stint singing on the streets for money, to her alcohol and substance abuse after being propelled to fame and far more dire health problems later in life will be very impressed by how Olivier Dahan uses a distinctive non-linear technique to tell Piaf's story with style, flair and panache. As talented as Dahan is as a visual storyteller though, what most people will get out of seeing La Vie en Rose is how stunning and amazing Marion Cotillard is in her Oscar-ready leading role as Piaf. Cotillard is the pretty French actress who starred opposite Russell Crowe in A Good Year, but when one first sees Piaf on stage in the movie, one might immediately assume she's being played by an older actress. Cotillard adds so much life and energy to Piaf in her younger days, but she goes through such a major physical transformation in playing this musical icon over nearly 30 years that it's rather incredible and unbelievable, especially when we see her old and dying and realize that it's the same actress! If that's not enough to sell you on the movie, then the film's cast is rounded out by some of France's most famous actors including the ubiquitous Gerard Depardieu, Pascal Greggory, and hot young actresses Sylvie Testud and Emmanuelle Seigner. It will open in New York and L.A. on Friday, but one can expect a wider release to come. It's recommended if you were into musical biopics like Ray and Walk the Line, but especially if you want to learn more about this famous French singer who hasn't really caught on with Americans and the current generation, but who was someone whose tragic losses are things that surprisingly, many people may be able to relate to.

Interview with Marion Cotillard and Olivier Dahan

With last week's release of the sports drama Gracie and this week's biopic La Vie en Rose, it started me thinking about overused genres, ones that have been done so much in recent years that they've become formulaic in a bad way. Not that either of those movies are particularly bad--the Edith Piaf biodrama is one of my favorites of the year and this week's "Chosen One"--but there's a definite formula to certain genres where you almost feel like you know everything that's going to happen simply from having seen other movies in the genre.

ShowBIZ Data has posted estimates for Friday, and despite a huge 69% drop from its opening Friday, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End looks to hold the top spot for the weekend, its $13.4 million Friday take pointing to a second weekend between $46 and 48 million, and a much bigger sophomore drop than Dead Man's Chest.

The big story yesterday was the near $10 million grossed by Judd Apatow's Knocked Up, which will put it neck and neck for second place with DreamWorks' Shrek the Third, which took another big drop. Expect both of them to wind up somewhere in the $27 to 29 million range for the weekend.

Not much to add with actual theatre counts being reported, though I'm still feeling good that Judd Apatow's Knocked Up will be the big story this weekend and will end up doing far better than most expect. It's not quite getting the 2,900 theatres we expected though, so it will likely come in just under $27 million with a nice Friday and Saturday night and good word-of-mouth to carry it over the next few weeks.

Mr. Brooks and Gracie are both getting more theatres than earlier estimated, although they're likely to play a back seat to Knocked Up and only Costner's star power will be enough to get Mr. Brooks over the $10 million mark. (As we saw with Sandra Bullock in Murder by Numbers, fans of a star don't always necessarily want to see them do something different.) Reviews for both of them are mixed at best and unfortunately, all of this weekend's movies will be relying on reviews to get people interested since they don't have the built-in audiences or sequel factor.

Updated Predictions

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $50.5 million -56%
2. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $32.2 million -39%
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $26.8 million N/A
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $10.8 million N/A
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.6 million -47%
6. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $2.8million N/A
7. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.2 million -29%
8. Bug (Lionsgate) - $1.7 million -47%
9. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $1.3 million -51%
10. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $1.0 million -45%

Some might see this, the first weekend of June, as a down weekend in the middle of all the blockbuster summer sequels, but in fact, this brief respite from the sequels may be just what the box office needs to reinterest moviegoers disappointed by the summer's high profile blockbusters.

It's an especially good weekend for Judd Apatow's second major comedy Knocked Up to take full advantage of the success and popularity of The 40-Year-Old Virgin and the popularity of his new movie's star, Katherine Heigl from ABC's "Grey's Anatomy," as it makes a strong play for second place against the blockbuster threequels. It might fall just short of DreamWorks' Shrek the Third in its third weekend, while Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End remains on top for a second weekend.

While we usually pick art films, docs and the like as Chosen One, this week we're going to geek out over the latest movie from Russian director Timur Bekmambetov, who's currently helming a movie based on Mark Millar's comic series Wanted:

Day Watch (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Konstantin Khabensky, Vladimir Menshov, Valery Zolotukhin, Maria Poroshina, Galina Tunina, Victor Verzhbitsky, Dima Martynov
Directed by Timur Bekmambetov (Night Watch); Written by Sergei Lukyanenko, Timur Bekmambetov, Alexander Talal
Genre: Action, Fantasy, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "Night Becomes Day"
Plot Summary: The tension between the Light and Dark Others continues as Anton (Konstantin Khabensky) tries to reconnect with his son, who has gone over to the Dark side, while training Svetla, who might be
REVIEW

I still remember the first time I heard about Timur Bekmambetov's Night Watch. I was watching the news and there was a segment on this movie that had just opened in Russia and made more money than Lord of the Rings and Spider-Man 2 in their opening weekends, a huge blockbuster made for very little money that was on its way to becoming one of the highest grossing movies in the country's history. Of course, my curiosity was piqued, as was my anticipation to see this movie, and I finally got a chance about a year later when it screened at the 2005 Tribeca Film Festival. Although the movie looked very cool, I was kind of disappointed, mainly because I found the premise to be very confusing even compared to recent Hollywood blockbusters involving pirates. (My Review) The movie was then delayed another eight months before it was finally given a limited release where it floundered in obscurity. (Most people had probably already seen it on import DVD by then.)

I'm glad to say that the follow-up Day Watch is far superior in the same way that X2 is better than X-Men and I'm sure Rise of the Silver Surfer will be better than Fantastic Four. Based on a series of popular Russian fantasy novels, the sequel benefits from the fact that the premise of this war between two ancient factions, the Light Others and the Dark Others, is already established, as is the ways that their respective forces, the Night Watch and Day Watch, keep their counterparts in line so that war doesn't reignite between them. Apparently, Bekmambetov filmed a lot of this at the same time as the first movie, but it looks like he spent a bit more time and had a bit more money for the effects and post-production, and the sequel offers a lot more fun and entertainment.

While not everyone will understand what's going on--especially those trying to see it without having seen the first movie--the movie provides the type of fast-paced entertainment that guys from the MTV/video game generation will appreciate, so that Day Watch is just as enjoyable as any of the mega-release sequels this summer. You can read my full review if you want to know what I thought specifically worked or didn't work, but action fans looking for something different this summer might want to give this a look. It certainly got me a lot more excited to see how Bekmambetov's work on Universal's Wanted, based on Mark Millar's comic, turns out when it comes out next March. Opening in New York and L.A. on Friday, this is recommended if you like The Matrix or Blade trilogies, or some of the Michael Bay's wilder movies.

(Check out what else is coming out in limited release, as well as a couple of mini-reviews at the link below.)

Opening early on Thursday night might prove to have been a mistake for Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which set a new Memorial Day weekend record over last year's X-Men: The Last Stand, but might be seen as a disappointment (at least in this country) compared to last year's Pirates sequel, even with an impressive $156 million estimated gross in its first five days of release, including Thursday previews. Currently estimated to have made $115 million over the three-day weekend puts At World's End in line as the fourth highest opening movie ever but third when compared to May's other high-profile blockbusters, Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third. Then again, including its international box office, At World's End scored $401 million this weekend, setting a new global opening record, so take that, Spidey and Shrek!

The picture is becoming a bit clearer on how Pirates of the Caribbean might fare over the four-day weekend now that we have rough Saturday numbers. Unfortunately, the $37.7 being estimated for Saturday by Showbiz Data. That's a 13% drop from Friday, showing that it's not holding up its business over the weekend even compared to Dead Man's Chest which made $44.4 million on its second day. With that in mind, At World's End will probably end up with less than $120 million over the three-day weekend (Box Office Mojo has it at $112.5 million) and less than $140 million for the four-day weekend.

While it will still set a new Memorial Day record, beating last year's X-Men: The Last Stand, it's doubtful it will make it into the top 3 opening weekends as it's likely to end up behind Shrek the Third in that respect. With Thursday previews, it will end up with roughly $150 million in its first five days, which is nothing to scoff at, though it will be hard for it to attain the amount of money of its predecessor with that soft an opening.

After making $14 million in Thursday night pre-opening screenings, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End has grossed an estimated $43 million for its first Friday, not a huge number by any account--last year's X-Men: The Last Stand made more than that on its first Friday including midnight screenings--but it's not the end of the world either. (And I greatly apologize for using the most obvious pun.) Combined with Thursday, it has grossed $57 million in roughly 30 hours, slightly more than what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest made on its first Friday including midnight screenings. With an extended four-day holiday weekend, the threequel should perform similarly well in its opening weekend.

In the last 24 hours, both Fandango and MovieTickets.com have sent out press releases reporting that Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End is outpacing both Dead Man's Chest and Spider-Man 3 in terms of ticket sales, although a lot of those sales will be for the Thursday night previews and for Friday, and it might be hard for the movie to hold up that sort of business for the entire four-day weekend. Then again, it has topped Spider-Man 3 for one major record already, that being the widest release ever into 4,362 theatres, so maybe other records will follow. (Click on the link to read the rest of the updated analysis and a preview of next weekend.)

Updated Predictions (4-Day)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney) - $164.3 million* N/A
2. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $82.3 million -33%
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $18.0 million -38%
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $5.1 million N/A
5. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $3.5 million -36%
6. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $2.5 million -33%
7. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $2.4 million -35%
8. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.1 million +94%
9. Fracture (New Line) - $1.7 million -35%
10. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $.9 million -50%

*Note: This number doesn't include Thursday night previews which could be anywhere from $10 to 15 million.

This week's predictions can be found here or you can check below after the jump.

It's Memorial Day weekend once again, usually the biggest moviegoing weekend of the year, and the big story this weekend is that Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, the third installment of Disney and Jerry Bruckheimer's blockbuster franchise, will be doing its best to win back some of its box office records stolen by Spider-Man 3 a few weeks back. Although the holiday weekend could give it a bit of an advantage with almost no one working or going to school on Monday, it won't help that Disney is opening the movie on Thursday night, and that business is likely to take away from the weekend. Regardless of that, whatever amount of money it makes, the only record it will be breaking will be the one set for Memorial Day weekend by X-Men: The Last Stand last year.

I apologize that I'm going to cop out on picking a Chosen One this week because frankly, all of this week's limited releases are decent and worth seeing and they each have something to offer, even if though there are no real standouts.

Opening on Wednesday:

The Boss of It All (IFC First Take) - Eclectic Danish filmmaker Lars von Trier (Dogville, Dancer in the Dark) is back, this time with a dark comedy about an actor hired to pretend to be the boss of a company to throw the workers of an office off-track when the real boss makes a bunch of unpopular decisions. It will open at the IFC Center on Wednesday.
Mini-Review: Fans of "The Office" will get a kick out of this funny and quirky departure for von Trier, which has such a clever premise that you can almost count the days until Hollywood tries to adapt it into a whimsical comedy vehicle for Tim Allen, Will Ferrell or the like. Like much of von Trier's previous films, the production values are very rough, particularly the editing, which is somewhat distracting until you get used to it, but he's created a funny group of characters and thrown them into a situation that only gets more outlandish as it goes on. What really drives the movie is the performance by Jens Albinus as the pretentious dramatic actor who has to pretend he knows what is going on, and Peter Gantzler as the real boss who hired him as the patsy. These two actors are great together, really setting up some funny scenes when they meet in a neutral place to discuss how to deal with the workers. A nice change of pace for von Trier, who makes a brief appearance to let the audience know not to expect too much, and one that will hopefully cleanse his palate for whatever he chooses to do next. Rating: 7.5/10

This is it. The last weekend of what's likely to be the most frontloaded May in box office history, as the third of the 2007's Terrible Threesome of Threequels is finally released. In some ways, it almost feels like a let-down that the sequel to the previous box office record holder is opening so early in the season and over Memorial Day, because there'll be even more expectations than there would have been if it opened later in the season on a non-holiday weekend. So far, we've already had one movie make $151 million in three days and another make $122 million, so if Pirates doesn't make $180 million or more in four days, is it just going to seem like a big yawner, since it may be the last time we see these kinds of numbers for a long time? (Maybe not until Indiana Jones?)

As the only new movie in theatres, DreamWorks' Shrek the Third was expected to do huge amounts of family business this weekend, but it surpassed most expectations with an opening weekend of $122 million and an additional $900 thousand in Thursday night preview screenings, making it the third-largest opening ever and setting a new opening record for an animated feature, a record previously held by Shrek 2. While that amount might seem like a bit of a letdown compared to the recent record set by Spider-Man 3, especially after Shrek the Third's $39 million opening day, it's a respectable number for a family movie as well as a second sequel, having averaged a whopping $29,597 in its 4,122 theatres. (That's fewer theatres even than Shrek 2.) It's a great start for the DreamWorks animated film, and the first in the series distributed by Paramount, though it might be harder for it to attain the type of long-term box office of the previous sequel with Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End nipping at its heels next weekend.

While most of the projections for DreamWorks' Shrek the Third seemed to have been in the range of $100 to $115 million--here at the Weekend Warrior we low-balled it with $107.8 million--the ogre threequel opened with an estimated $40 million on Friday according to ShowBIZ Data, which is pointing to a weekend well above all predictions.

Only a couple days after posting our original predictions and the Weekend Warrior is still rather apprehensive about nailing down a prediction for Shrek the Third, because it's really very much an anomaly even in this summer of sequels and threequels. After all, it is the only animated film to have a second theatrical sequel--something that can't even be said about The Lion King which had a bunch of DVD-only sequels--though excitement just doesn't seem to be as high for the third Shrek movie as there was for the sequel three years ago.

You can read the rest of my late week analysis after the...

Revised Predictions:

1. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $107.8 million N/A
2. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $30.0 million -49%
3. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $5.3 million -46%
4. Georgia Rule (Universa) - $4.0 million -42%
5. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $3.1 million -35%
6. Fracture (New Line) - $1.7 million -44%
7. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $1.5 million -55%
8. The Invisible (Touchstone) - $1.1 million -46%
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $1 million -42%
10. Meet the Robinsons (Disney) - $.85 million -52%

Before we get to this week's predictions, I just want to take a second to thank everyone for their comments and feedback on the new direction of the Weekend Warrior. I know it might seem like a pretty major change, but as always, the hopes are to evolve and try to continue to provide information in the best way to possible without alienating long-time readers. One of the things I'm going to do is include the predictions on the actual blog post, though if you want to get theatre counts and drop-offs, etc, you'll have to go the chart.

This week's predictions can be found here or you can check after the bump. Of course, the big news this week is the release of DreamWorks' Shrek the Third, which will be looking to set another record for an animated feature.

Only one movie in wide release this week, but plenty of other things to see for those in New York, L.A. and other select cities including this week's Chosen One, which conveniently opens on Wednesday...

Once (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Glenn Hansard, Marketa Irglova
Written and directed by John Carney (On the Edge)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated R
Tagline: "How often do you find the right person?"
Plot Summary: The life of a street musician in Dublin (Glenn Hansard of Irish band The Frames) is turned upside-down when he meets a precocious Czech immigrant (Marketa Irglova
) who helps to make his musical dreams come true.
REVIEW
INTERVIEWS (with John Carney & Glenn Hansard)

Although plenty of other journalists have jumped on the bandwagon of this movie, I think I honestly can take credit for being one of the first people to write about this small Irish indie film when it played at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. (If you don't believe me, here's my original post.) The low-budget movie was quickly picked up by Fox Searchlight and they've been doing a lot of preview screenings to spread word-of-mouth and so far, I haven't found a single person who hasn't liked the movie, let alone loved it, and that's a true testament to what John Carney has done in this music-driven dramedy that stars Glenn Hansard, frontman for the popular Irish band The Frames, and his musical collaborator Marketa Irglova. The simple plot involves a chance encounter between the two in Dublin that turns into something more. What makes this simple movie so special is the songs written and performed by the two leads and the way they're tied into the story of this week-long relationship. It wasn't too surprising to me when the movie won the Audience Awards in the dramatic world competition, something surely helped by Hansard and Irglova's support of the film with mini-concerts after each screening. I don't want to say too much more since I want to save something for my review, but if you're in New York or L.A. anytime this weekend (the movie opens on Wednesday) and you have someone you like or love, than do yourself and them a favor and take them to see one of the best unlikely romance movies since Sofia Coppola's Lost in Translation.

I've discussed the MPAA quite extensively in my column over the past year, but this time I want to talk about how the rating is becoming detrimental to the business by hurting quality movies that younger audiences would probably enjoy and appreciate if not for the restricting nature of the MPAA's rating. There's actually two sides of this coin, especially this summer, in which studios are trying to get lower ratings for their sequels to bring in a wider audience than the previous installments, just as movies that could find a wider audience are potentially being hurt by the MPAA's stringent regulations.

"What goes up must come down" seems to be the motto this weekend. After a record-setting weekend with Sony's Spider-Man 3 riding high, having grossed $151 million in a single three-day weekend, it divebombed in its second weekend after gradually dropping from day-to-day over the past week. Still, it remained well above the rest of the pack as four new movies opened with very little fanfare and even two movies that should have been sure things failed to meet expectations.

One of the new things that I'll be doing on the blog is posting my updated Thursday numbers in a separate post. Regardless of whether they're that different, I'm not sure how many people will figure out how to access the numbers earlier in the week, so for those who don't, my final predictions will be posted every Thursday night along with a preview of the next week. (If you want to make life easier, you may want to subscribe to the blog's RSS feed so you can know whenever the blog is updated with a new post.)

Here are the updated predictions and for those who can't read them:

1. Spider- Man 3 (Sony) - $66.0 million -56%
2. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $16.8 million N/A
3. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $11.5 million N/A
4. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $5.7 million N/A
5. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $3.8 million -35%
6. The Ex (The Weinstein Co.) - $2.5 million N/A
7. Fracture (New Line) - $2.2 million - 40%
8. The Invisible (Touchstone) - $1.8 million -48%
9. Meet the Robinsons (Disney) - $1.6 million -37%
10. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) - $1.5 million -42%

This week, we have four movies in wide release with the Universal chick flick Georgia Rule starring Jane Fonda and Lindsay Lohan opening in the most theatres, as well as Fox Atomic's 28 Weeks Later, Larry the Cable Guy's Delta Farce and the Weinstein Company dark comedy The Ex, starring Zach Braff and Jason Bateman. You can read the Weekend Warrior's predictions here and can read more in-depth analysis about this week's movies in wide release below.