It's that time of year again and after months of build-up and predictions, it's time to put up or shut up as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces their film awards in 25 categories, some which have already been decided by the consensus of critics, pundits and journalists who think they know how things will go...and frankly, even yours truly has some doubts about his predictions considering how many variables are involved this year. Regardless, I'm here all night, talking about the show as it airs and kibbitzing with anyone who wants to chat during the awards, cheer the winners, boo the Academy's errors, etc.

Tip: Comments on this blog seem to not be working, so the best way to follow along if you want to comment is to have two browser windows open, one with this page, which you can refresh to see when new things are added on my part (since they'll be at the top), and another with this page for posting comments. Hope this helps and please feel free to post questions if you're having any problems.

Once the show begins, I'll keep a running tally of winners at the top of the blog below the jump for those checking in late and then my posts will start with the newest ones at the top.

Well, I was going to leave things alone with my last predictions in January, because not much has changed in terms of my picks for the Oscars even with a few surprise snubs among the Guilds and somewhat of an about face by the Academy when filling in those last slots.

For instance, Joe Wright's Atonement was snubbed by most of the major guilds making one think it couldn't get a Best Picture nomination, and yet, it still got nominated in a number of categories including Supporting Actress for young Saorsie Ronan and a screenplay nomination, and the only one snubbed was director Joe Wright who many thought was the most deserving of accolades. Don't even get me started on things like Tommy Lee Jones being nominated for his performance in In the Valley of Elah rather than for the Coens' No Country for Old Men. Regardless, I was asked by AOL Moviefone to share my thoughts on the winners so I'll do the same here, and if you're around on Sunday night, please stop by the blog where I'll be posting live commentary and you can laugh at all the picks I got wrong! :)

Welcome back to the second part of the Oscar Warrior's 2008 Oscar Picks. For those of us who haven't been paying attention, Part 1 was posted earlier this week with our picks in the acting categories, but now we're getting down to the nitty gritty, a few of the tougher categories to predict and the Big Kahuna itself, Best Picture.

Okay, okay, we've really been dragging this awards season with getting up our final predictions for the year, although we've had a few previews over the course of the past few months, which you can read elsewhere on the Oscar Blog. 2007 ended with things being a lot clearer due to the nominations announced by the Hollywood Foreign Press (Golden Globes), Broadcast Film Critics (Critics' Choice Awards) and Screen Actors Guild, all of which are strong precursors for Oscar nominations. Most of these organizations will be announcing their winners in the week or two, while the other guilds (DGA, WGA and PGA) will be announcing their selections leading up to the announcement of the Oscar nominations on the morning of January 22.

To help get things moving, we'll start as usual with the acting categories and then post the writing, directing and Best Picture choices later this week. (And this time we mean it!)

Reminder: "My Personal Pick" is the person or movie which I think is deserving of a nomination but has been sorely overlooked, although there's little pointing to them having any chance of getting into the Oscar race at this point in the game.

Yesterday, the National Board of Review (NBR) announced their choices for their annual awards, which tend to be the first real awards of the coming Oscar season, and though their choices don't always align with those of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, there's always some connection in terms of their choices being at least a part of the race if not always the winners.

This year, the NBR spread the wealth, picking Joel and Ethan Coen's No Country for Old Men as their Best Picture and awarding it for its adapted screenplay, but then giving other awards to other films and performances. Tim Burton was bestowed with their Best Director award for Sweeney Todd but neither movie was considered worthy for their performances as their Actor and Actress awards were given to George Clooney for playing Michael Clayton and Julie Christie for Sarah Polley's Away from Her, probably the biggest surprise since many thought that Marion Cotillard had this award in the bag for her portrayal of Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose.

Casey Affleck and Amy Ryan took the Supporting honors, Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James and Ryan for Gone Baby Gone, the former also somewhat surprising due to the NBR's support for No Country for Old Men. Foreign film was given to Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and animated to Pixar's Ratatouille, no surprise there.

You can read the press release containing the full line-up of the NBR's picks including their Top 10 after the jump.

My original predictions are here in case you want to compare them. Not too many changes since last time, as I've only seen a few more contenders, but there was a pretty major shake-up going on in the actress category when it was rumored that Cate Blanchett was being moved to the Lead Actress category, taking her away from being the frontrunner in the supporting category. That rumor was squashed in less than 24 hours.

Picture:

Still a tough race to predict without having seen a few key movies that won't screen until later this week and next week, but I do think there are at least three of the five movies I picked that will find enough dedicated fans to keep them going through the long haul. Right now, I can't say there's any sort of frontrunner and those last two slots are likely to change on a weekly basis, but Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has been finding many fans, maybe enough to move into that fourth slot, and it's very much the type of Oscar fare that's done very well at the awards despite being in another language.

The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage)
Atonement (Focus)
No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax)
American Gangster (Universal)

Alts: 3:10 to Yuma, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, Once, Charlie Wilson's War

About a month ago, we posted Part 1 of a very lengthy and verbose overview of some of the movies vying for awards that have been released earlier this year or have been playing festivals. Something happened along the way where the second part, which was supposed to come out a week later, got delayed to the point where some of the movies "being released soon" have actually come out already, plus there were also two major oversights left out of our festival coverage which will be covered here.

To wrap things up, at least for now, we'll take a look at the movies that are either in theatres now or coming out soon, plus a few that have not been seen by that many people yet that either will surprise or disappoint if they don't live up to their lofty expectations.

But first, check out our updated predictions.

In past years, I've waited until mid-December to post the Oscar Warrior's first predictions even though I've played around with the various categories much earlier, but I'm feeling a bit more confident this year even though there are still a few movies I haven't seen. Here's how things are shaping up so far in terms of the nominations (listed in no particular order):

Picture:

Still a tough race to predict without having seen a few key movies that won't screen until next month, but I do think there are at least three of the five movies I picked that will find enough dedicated fans to make it through the long haul.

The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage)
Atonement (Focus)
No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage)
3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate)

Alts: Sweeney Todd, Charlie Wilson's War, There Will Be Blood, American Gangster

With only two months to go, 2007 might feel like the weakest year for awards-worthy movies ever, but maybe that's because there have been many really good movies, but nothing so great that it immediately jumps to the top of anyone's Top 10 list for the year. Few of the movies seemed like they could bear repeat viewings for decades to come, but honestly, can anyone say that any of the movies selected as Best Picture by the Academy over the last five or six years might be deemed classics that might be heralded with special edition anniversary DVDs in ten or twenty years? Probably not.

Even so, enough movies have been released and seen at festivals to get some idea what movies the studios might be using to attach the Academy and other awards groups this season in hopes of getting that coveted recognition and the dollars that often goes along with it. What you're about to read below aren't predictions, but you can see a few of my early ones here if you're interested, though these are likely to change over the next two months as more movies are seen and the picture becomes clearer.

The 2007 Primetime Emmy Awards, hosted by Ryan Seacrest ("American Idol"), took place at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles on Sunday night and you can view the winners below:

Outstanding Drama Series - "The Sopranos"
Outstanding Comedy Series - "30 Rock"

Lead Actor, Drama Series - James Spader, "Boston Legal"
(A huge upset... first line of speech: "I feel like I just stole a huge pile of money from the mob.")
Lead Actress, Drama Series - Sally Fields, "Brothers & Sisters"
Supporting Actor Drama - Terry O'Quinn, "Lost" (2nd nom, 1st win)
Supporting Actress Drama - Katherine Heigl, "Grey's Anatomy"

Lead Actor, Comedy Series - Ricky Gervais, "Extras" (a lot of confusion due to a gag pulled by Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert)
Lead Actress, Comedy Series - America Ferrara, "Ugly Betty"
Supporting Actor Comedy - Jeremy Piven for "Entourage" (3rd nom, 2nd win)
Supporting Actress Comedy - Jamie Pressley, "My Name Is Earl"

Directing Drama Series - Alan Taylor, "The Sopranos"
Writing Drama Series - David Chase, "The Sopranos"
Directing, Comedy Series - Richard Shepard, "Ugly Betty"
Writing, Comedy Series - Greg Daniels, "The Office"

Outstanding Mini-Series - "Broken Trail"
Directing for Mini-Series/Movie - Philip Martin, "Prime Suspect: The Final Act"
Writing for a Mini-Series/Movie - Frank Decey, "Prime Suspect: The Final Act"
Lead Actor in a Mini-Series - Robert Duvall, "Broken Trail"
Lead Actress in a Mini-Series - Helen Mirren, "Prime Suspect: The Final Act"
Supporting Actor Mini-Series or Movie - Thomas Haden Church, "Broken Trail"
Supporting Actress Mini-Series or Movie - Judy Davis, "The Starter Wife"

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series - "The Daily Show"
Writing, Variety, Music or Comedy Series - "Late Night with Conan O'Brien"

Reality Competition Program - "The Amazing Race"

TV Movie - "Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee"

Oustanding Variety, Music or Comedy, Special - "Tony Bennett: An American Classic"
Directing Variety, Music or Comedy, Special - Rob Marshall, "Tony Bennett: An American Classic"
Individual Performance, Variety Special - Tony Bennett for "Tony Bennett: An American Classic"