Either way, expect last week's #1, Roland Emmerich's 10,000 BC, to tank in its second weekend due to the lack of interest after so many bad reviews and bad word-of-mouth and some of the other movies might leave theaters to make room for Horton.

This Week's Predictions -

(Note: There may not be a Thursday update this week.)

1. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) - $48.3 million N/A

2. 10,000 BC (Warner Bros.) - $13.6 million -62%

3. College Road Trip (Disney) - $7.9 million -42%

4. Never Back Down (Summit) - $6.7 million N/A

5. Doomsday (Universal) - $5.6 million N/A

6. Vantage Point (Sony) - $4.4 million -41%

7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $3.4 million -44%

8. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $2,9 million -49%

9. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $2.4 million -48%

10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.1 million -47%

Last year, none of the new movies could dethrone the power couple of 300 and Wild Hogs, but Sandra Bullock had her biggest movie opening ever with the psychological thriller Premonition (Sony/Tristar), which opened in third place with $17.6 million in 2,831 theaters. Saw creators James Wan and Leigh Whannell returned with the long-delayed horror flick Dead Silence, which made a decent $7.8 million in 1,800 theaters for fourth place, while Chris Rock's directorial debut, the romantic comedy I Think I Love My Wife, didn't fare well with just $5.7 million in a similar number of theaters. The Top 10 grossed $100 million and going by the last few weeks, that amount will not be matched by this week's offerings even if Horton does big business.

Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox)
Starring (the voices) of Jim Carrey, Steve Carell, Carol Burnett, Seth Rogen, Will Arnett, Isla Fisher, Dan Fogler, Amy Poehler, Jaime Pressly, Jonah Hill, Josh Flitter
Directed by Jimmy Hayward (animator on Finding Nemo and Monsters Inc., story consultant on Robots) and Steve Martino (art director on Robots and the "Monty Python's Meaning of Life" video game); Written by Cinco Paul and Ken Daurio (The Bubble Boy, The Santa Clause 2, College Road Trip)
Genre: Animated, Family, Comedy
Rated G
Tagline: "One Elephant One World One Story"
Plot Summary: Dr. Seuss' classic children's tale is brought to animated life with Jim Carrey providing the voice of Horton, an elephant who discovers the microscopic world of Whoville in a speck of dust on a flower and decides to be the protector of the Whos that live in the microscopic world even though no one else can see them.

After months of movies that did just okay business--Cloverfield and 10,000 BC being the two exceptions--we finally have a movie that's pretty close to a sure thing, because with Paramount's Spiderwick Chronicles and Disney's College Road Trip underperforming, it leaves a big open gap for a big family film. It comes in the form of the latest animated movie from the makers of Ice Age, who've had two major hits with that franchise and one minor one with Robots in 2005. Unlike their last three movies, which were based on original ideas, they have much stronger material to work with this time, as they adapt one of Dr. Seuss' classic children's books, Horton Hears a Who!.

If that's not enough of a home run, than they also have some impressive starpower in the form of the voice of Jim Carrey, whose biggest movie to date in the United States (with $260 million) is Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas, in which the Grinch became one of Carrey's most famous characters among kids. (That is, presuming they recognized him.) Horton is not only Carrey's first voice work for an animated movie, it's only his second family film, having had so much success with the former one. Not only that, but Horton reunites him with Steve Carell, who co-starred (and some say "stole") Carrey's second biggest U.S. hit Bruce Almighty (and his biggest worldwide hit having grossed an amazing $485 million). Since that memorable appearance, Carell has done a few movies with Will Ferrell and gone off on his own with the sleeper hit The 40-Year-Old Virgin and then took over for Carrey in the comedy sequel Evan Almighty, which didn't fare nearly as well. Carell has also provided his voice for a number of other animated films, most notably DreamWorks' Over the Hedge.

Bolstering the already impressive comedy factor of the film's two main voice stars, the directors (both of whom worked in various capacities on Robots) have assembled an impressive voice cast around them, including the one and only Carol Burnett--the first time the living legend has done anything in some time--as well as ever-present comedy stars like Steve Rogen, Will Arnett, Isla Fisher, Amy Poehler, Jonah Hill and Dan Fogler (star of Balls of Fury). All of them are funny on their own or with others, and a few of them are being mentioned in the ads, although none of them will bring people in like Carrey or Carell might.

Even so, star power hasn't proven to be a reason for grown-ups or kids to see an animated films and in the last few years, they haven't been faring as well as they were in the good old days of Finding Nemo and the original Shrek. In general, there have been hit franchises like Shrek and Ice Age and the films of Pixar Animation, and everything else has generally opened under $50 million and grossed less than $200 million. Then again, none of those were based on one of Dr. Seuss' classic stories, which has probably been read by just about every kid, their parent and maybe even their parents' parent since it was first published in 1954. (Consider how well Alvin and the Chipmunks did, and they were created around the same time.) It's kind of odd that its premise of someone from the real world (in this case, an elephant instead of a child) discovering a miniature world was similar to two of the biggest computer animated bombs, The Ant Bully and Arthur and the Invisibles, although in both cases, they were first-time animated productions and neither looked particularly appealing or original.

One of the reasons why past Fox animated films have fared so well in March is that there's so little strong family fare in theaters and while Paramount has done respectably, though not spectacular, with their movie based on The Spiderwick Chronicles, Disney's own G-rated offering College Road Trip didn't fare as well as hoped, leaving a wide open market for the latest Dr. Seuss to be the first choice for most kids and their parents.

Fox has been giving a similar big push for the movie as their other animated hits, but what really might make a difference was that Oprah Winfrey devoted an entire show to the movie with Carrey, Carell and Carol Burnett all appearing, plus Carell has been touting the movie during commercial breaks of "The Office" (still in reruns after the Writers' Strike). That, on top of all the commercials, will help increase awareness among moms with small children, and the G-rating should guarantee a huge audience of kids, parents and whole families, especially on the weekend. Even with a huge theater count of close to 4,000 theaters, it probably won't make more opening weekend than Ice Age: The Meltdown, but one can expect it to do huge business next week (giving Tyler Perry a run for the top spot) and over the Easter holiday weekend with lots more business over the various spring breaks.

Why I Should See It: You can't really go wrong with Dr. Seuss, especially being Jim Carrey's return to Seuss-ville and his reunion with Steve Carell.
Why Not: Jim Carrey's first foray into Seuss-ville was kind of annoying, especially to those who don't like his over-the-top schtick.

Projections: $45 to 48 million opening weekend and $175 to 180 million total.

COMPARISONS

Doomsday (Universal Pictures)
Starring Rhona Mitra, Bob Hoskins, Adrian Lester, Alexander Siddig, Malcolm McDowell
Written and directed by Neil Marshall (The Descent, Dog Soldiers)
Genre: Sci-Fi, Thriller, Action
Rated R
Tagline: "The End is Nigh."
Plot Summary: A deadly plague known as the "Reaper Virus" breaks out in Great Britain in the year 2007, infecting or killing millions of people, so a wall is built to quarantine the infected area of the country. Three decades later, when the virus resurfaces, a group of specialists led by Eden Sinclair (Rhona Mitra) is dispatched to the area behind the wall to try to find a cure.

Just under two years ago, a low-key British horror movie called The Descent opened at the beginning of August, and despite no known stars and much stronger fare in theaters, it made just under $9 million in roughly 2,000 theaters, introducing most American horror lovers to Mr. Neil Marshall, a talented British genre filmmaker following in the footsteps of Danny Boyle and Guy Ritchie. Around the same time, Marshall's next project was announced, as the director switched gears to make an apocalyptic sci-fi action flick set in an England where a virus has killed millions and left the survivors battling for every scrap of food, a very cool mix of "The Road Warrior" and "Escape From New York." Roughly a year later, Marshall showed up at San Diego Comic-Con with the first footage from the movie, which looked pretty awesome, clearly a bigger budget movie than The Descent with a lot more action.

The film's main star is Rhona Mitra from the television series "The Practice" and "Boston Legal," but she hasn't had much success with past movies, including the horror bomb Skinwalkers, which made only $1 million, as well as small roles in Jim Carrey's The Number 23 and Mark Wahlberg's Shooter, all last year. She's joined by legendary British actors Bob Hoskins and Malcolm McDowell, the Clockwork Orange star continuing his foray into genre that began with his role on the NBC hit "Heroes." Another familiar face might be Alexander Siddig, who appeared in Ridley Scott's Kingdom of Heaven and Stephen Gaghan's Syriana, but who also appeared on one of the "Star Trek" shows (just don't ask me which!), and had his own bomb last year with The Last Legion, which opened just a week after Skinwalkers. Still, none of these actors will make that much of a difference in bringing in audiences. In fact, Marshall's involvement isn't really being advertised, nor the connections to the popular horror movie The Descent, which is strange because Universal made sure that people knew that last year's horror movie Dead Silence was by the creators of Saw.

The movie was produced along with Rogue Pictures, the genre division of Universal subsidiary Focus, and they did a good amount of promotion for the movie, especially at last year's Comic-Con, but late last year, Rogue was dissolved and merged into Universal after a number of disappointing horror bombs with The Return and The Hitcher--Rogue's comedies Hot Fuzz and Balls of Fury did significantly better--putting a lot of pressure on a studio that had little financial or emotional commitment to see the movie do well.

Unfortunately, Universal are pulling a similar stunt with Marshall's third film as they did with James Wan's Dead Silence and James Gunn's Slither, two horror films released in March, by not promoting the movie or screening it for critics, which means that a.) most newspaper movie writers will automatically discount the movie as being bad and deem it so, and b.) fewer people will be aware of the movie than might have with reviews and proper promotion. Not showing movies to critics is usually done by studios when they know their movies have a built-in audience who'll see it regardless of reviews, but in this case, without reviews, not many people will know that the movie exists or whether it's worth shelling out their hard-earned cash. The fact that this is the same audience that might be just as interested in the martial arts drama Never Back Down means this will probably end up doing less business than it might have done if given a proper marketing campaign. Either way, there really hasn't been a movie like this in a long time, a cool sci-fi action flick, with Danny Boyle's 28 Days Later or his less successful Sunshine being the closest, so there should be some interest among sci-fi genre fans who won't be so interested in the other choices.

Why I Should See It: Marshall's last film The Descent was an excellent addition to the horror genre.
Why Not: Looks way too much like Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome and who remembers that could possibly want to see this?

Projections: $5 to 7 million opening weekend and roughly $15 to 16 million total.

COMPARISONS

Never Back Down (Summit Entertainment)
Starring Sean Faris, Djimon Hounsou, Cam Gigandet, Amber Heard, Evan Peters, Wyatt Smith
Directed by Jeff Wadlow (Cry_Wolf and various shorts; upcoming Hail to the Thief); Written by Chris Hauty (Homeward Bound: Lost in San Francisco)
Genre: Action, Drama, Sport
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: Jake Tyler (Sean Faris) is a tough kid with a temper who runs into trouble with the locals when his family moves to Orlando, Florida, getting him badly beaten up in a fight with local bully Ryan (Cam Gigandet), a trained Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter. After getting beaten up, Jake decides to train in MMA for a rematch, but he learns that he'll have to control his temper and learn discipline if he wants to win.

Mini-Review: Working from an awful script that has the audacity to steal lines from "Erin Brockovich" (as if someone might not notice), there's very little difference from this drama set in the world of Mixed Martial Arts than any of the bad dance movies of late, essentially being a showcase for pretty young things including Sean Faris, about the closest we've come to a young Tom Cruise lookalike in some time, only without the acting ability. Mostly, the movie is a product of MTV production and "Beverly Hills 90210" drama following a fairly predictable "angry guy learns to control his temper to fight for what's important", but it's so incompetently directed with shoddy camerawork and editing that you wonder how Jeff Wadlow got a job. As with so many young directors borne out of MTV Film School, Wadlow is madly in love with his own soundtrack and macho montages, which does little to make up for the terrible writing and weak performances. Even more curious is the featured role for two-time Oscar nominee Djimon Hounsou as Jake's trainer, a character given his own issues and subplots that serve very little purpose to the main story. At least Hounsou adds a little class to the film that's brought down by its terrible writing and performances, the worst of the bunch being Cam Gigandet as the film's main antagonist, a ridiculously over-the-top performance that prevents one from taking any of the drama too seriously. Amber Heard isn't nearly bad as Jake's love interest, but it's not exactly a role that requires years of formal acting training, since she essentially has to look pretty and/or scared during the fight scenes, which are well choreographed and filmed better than the rest of the movie, but few and far between compared to the bland dialogue sequences. The movie just gets worse and worse as the story follows such a familiar "Karate Kid" character arc that you really feel as if you've watched this same movie countless times before, so you can guess exactly where it's going. As much as "Never Back Down" tries to be "The Fist and the Furious," it's really just a load of Raging Bullsh*t. Rating: 3/10

Not much to be said about this movie, which as you can tell by the mini-review above, I absolutely hated. It certainly seems like there must be some audience for this, since most of those dumb ass dance movies do well, and this one's about Mixed Martial Arts, which I assume has its fans, since there are so many guys out there who love mindless violence. (Not to discount the sport, as I'm sure there's more of a spirituality and discipline to the sport.) Since there really haven't been many, if any, movies set in the world of Mixed Martial Arts, we have to look at other similar genres like the dance movies or the movies based around streets racing. In the latter case, there's the successful "Fast and the Furious" franchise, the first movie far exceeding expectations in 2001 when people underestimated the popularity of street racing. Last year's Redline, was a racing movie that was released through an independent distributor who used the popularity of MySpace to promote the movie.

Not that it matters much, but this is the second movie from Jeff Wadlow, who directed the 2005 horror bomb Cry_Wolf, which didn't fare much better than Redline, and the only known star he lined up for the movie was two-time Oscar nominee Djimon Hounsou, who first came to notice in Jim Sheridan's In America and surprised many by being nominated for a second Oscar in 2006 for Edward Zwick's Blood Diamond. In between, he did a number of genre films including Constantine and Michael Bay's The Island. The film's main character is played by Sean Faris, a television star who hasn't done much in terms of movies, and his love interest is played by Amber Heard, who stars in the long-delayed horror movie All the Boys Love Mandy Lane, not that anyone will have heard of either.

Not that it will matter because the movie is all about the martial arts action, something that will appeal to the younger male audience that have been getting into the sport, and since I have no idea if we're talking thousands or tens of thousands or millions, this one really could go either way.

This is the third release from Summit Entertainment, who are releasing the movie into over 2,500 theaters after minimalizing the release of the Christina Ricci fantasy Penelope, but that did well and they're going wider with this expecting that young males might pick this over some of the other movies. It certainly has a better chance of bringing in women and the date crowd than Universal's Doomsday, which also has the misfortune of an R-rating. Reviews for this aren't likely to be very good but the film's audience of young males probably won't care since this is the only movie that looks worth seeing, especially with the terrible word-of-mouth faced by Roland Emmerich's 10,000 BC going into its second weekend.

Why I Should See It: If you're a fan of Mixed Martial Arts, there's lot of action in the movie.
Why Not: And that's about all the movie has going for it.
Projections: $6 to 8 million opening weekend but less than $20 million total.

COMPARISONS

THE CHOSEN ONE:

This week, we have a tie between two low-key documentary releases…

Sputnik Mania (Balcony Releasing)
Starring (voice) Liev Schreiber, Robert Klein,
Directed by David Hoffman
Genre: Documentary
Plot Summary: This documentary takes a look at the launch of Russia's Sputnik satellite and its repercussions in the world, especially in our country, as it caused the Cold War to escalate.

When you have a documentary about space travel coming out so soon after the excellent In the Shadow of the Moon, you know that you're going to be put under heavy scrutiny and comparisons. While this documentary about the first Russian satellite launch and its effects on the world isn't quite as impressive in terms of scope and visuals, it's still an amazing look back at American history, as it deals as much with the space race as it does with the paranoia in this country during the early days of the Cold War. You see, the Russian's launch of the Sputnik satellite caused a panic in the United States, since not only did it show that we were behind our main competitors, but it also meant that they had the capability to launch powerful rockets containing nuclear warheads at us. So of course, that meant that we had to step up our own program and launch a satellite into space to show the Russians that we're just as good. And that's how a simple post-WW2 misunderstanding turned into one of the biggest d*ck-measuring contests between two countries trying to one-up each other.

Narrated by Liev Shreiber, a natural for this kind of gig as he does his best impression of Peter Jennings, the documentary takes a somewhat dryer approach so it feels more like a National Geographic doc or something we might see on the Discovery Channel, but there's a lot of amazing footage of the media coverage of the events, including an appearance by Major John Glenn on "Name That Tune" talking about the Sputnik launch years before he'd be launched into space himself. Granted, the film is somewhat disjointed and unfocused as it moves away from the Space Race—that's another movie in itself—and focuses on the fears of nuclear war among the United States government and citizens, but it's still an amazing look back at a time in history when many people weren't alive, and it's a commendable and often impressive effort all around.

Sputnik Mania opens at the IFC Center in New York on Friday with an appearance by an actual sputnik!

Wetlands Preserved (First Run Features)
Starring Bob Weir, Dave Matthews, Blues Traveler, ?uestlove (The Roots), Mike Gordon (Phish), Nick Hexum (311), Robert Randolph, Warren Haynes (Allman Brothers Band), Mike Doughty, Hanson, John Medeski, The Spin Doctors, Darius Rucker (Hootie & The Blowfish), moe., Ryan Miller (Guster), Agnostic Front
Directed by Dean Budnick
Genre: Documentary
Plot Summary: A documentary about the late lamented rock club Wetlands that debuted a lot of music groups who went on to much bigger things.

Anyone who has read this column regularly knows it's no secret that I'm a big fan of rock docs, and having been an avid concert-goer for many years, I had been to the legendary New York rock club Wetlands a few times, though I didn't know nearly as much about the club as I learned from watching this comprehensive look at the venerable club, which mixes interviews with owner Larry Bloch, his staff and the bands who played there with recreated performances by Phish, Blues Traveler, Pearl Jam, the Spin Doctors, Sublime, 311 and other bands who got their start or played at the club over the years. Director Dean Budnick does this by using recovered soundboard tapes with animated photographs, and though it's not quite the same thing as being there, you can't help but be impressed by how many great bands played through there before it shut its doors, just days before 9/11. The film is somewhat primitive and very talking heads, but it's very entertaining to see the diversity of the club and how owner Larry Bloch justifies the logic behind his quirky decisions which gave the club such a distinctive look and feel, becoming the home for the city's Dead-heads, local and touring jam bands, rappers and hardcore/ska bands. It's actually pretty amazing when you realize how big some of these bands became since playing at the club in the early ‘90s, many of them selling out huge arenas, and it shows a lot of vision on Bloch's part for creating such a comfortable space for them. For all the talk of CBGB's being the preeminent rock club in New York, Budnick's documentary gives a good argument for Wetland's, especially when you realize that a good amount of the club's profits went to activism, something that Bloch set-up from the very early days of the club, and carried through until the very end.

If you have ever spent any time in the club or a fan of some of the bands, you'll want to check out this doc when it opens at the Cinema Village in New York on Friday and in L.A. on March 26.

Also in Limited Release:

Meat Loaf: In Search of Paradise (Voom HD Networks) - Bruce David Klein takes a look at the life of the rock star and actor known as Meat Loaf as he hits the heights of fame as a multi-platinum star, sinks to the lowest depths and then returns. After playing at the Montreal Film Festival, this rock biodoc opens at the IFC Center on Thursday, March 13 for a two-week run before playing on Rave HD on April 4.

Flash Point (Third Rail/Weinstein Co.) - Donnie Yen stars in Wilson Yip's police action-drama about a policeman who must fight a trio of gangster who have targetted his undercover brother and his girlfriend as revenge for their imprisonment. It will open in a couple theaters in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Interview with Donnie Yen

Funny Games (Warner Independent) - Filmmaker Michael Haneke remakes his own 1997 thriller about a home invasion by two polite young men who torture and humiliate a family of three in one night of hell. The English remake stars Naomi Watts and Tim Roth as the couple and Michael Pitt and Brady Corbet the home invaders, and it opens in 285 theaters in select cities on Friday.

Some Thoughts from the Film's Sundance Premiere

Sleepwalking (Overture Films) - Actress Charlize Theron produced and has a small role in director Bill Maher and writer Zac Stanford's drama about an 11-year-old girl (Anna Sophia-Robb) who goes on the road with her uncle (Nick Stahl) after her mother vanishes, presumably abandoning her daughter. Also starring Dennis Hopper and Woody Harrelson, the second released by Overture Films opens into roughly 25 theaters in select cities on Friday.

Mini-Review:

Rating: 5/10

Heartbeat Detector (New Yorker Films) – French actor Matthieu Amalric (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) stars in Nicholas Klotz's adaptation of François Emmanuel's "La Question Humaine" as a corporate psychologist who must analyze the mental state of the company's CEO, which puts him into a web of blackmail and betrayal. The thriller opens at the Cinema Village and Lincoln Plaza Cinemas in New York.

On Broadway – Former New Kid Joey Mcintyre and Eliza Dushku star in Dave McLaughlin's drama about a Boston man who writes a play to honor his dead uncle and decides to quit his job and put on a production of the play in the backroom of his neighborhood pub. The winner of the Grand Jury Prize at the New Hampshire Film Festival will open in a couple theaters in Boston.

Next up, two movies about kidnapping and human trafficking from opposite sides of the world…

Blind Mountain (Kino International) - This thriller from Chinese filmmaker Li Yang (Blind Shaft) takes a look at the world of human trafficking through the eyes of an attractive woman (Huang Li) who travels to the Shaanxi province in the mountains for a job but is drugged, kidnapped and sold into marriage. It opens at the Film Forum in New York City on Friday.

Towards Darkness (Peace Arch Entertainment) - This Columbia-based Spanish thriller by José Antonio Negret follows 90 minutes in the kidnapping of the son of a Columbian banker and the desperate attempt by his family and a special ops team to try to save his life via ransom negotiations. Co-starring "Ugly Betty" star America Ferrera, this selection from the 2007 Tribeca Film Festival opens at Quad Cinema in New York on Friday and in L.A. on March 21.

War Made Easy (Media Education Foundation) - This documentary by Loretta Alper and Jeremy Earp traces the United States' involvement in the Iraq War to government deception and media spin, using archive footage to draw parallels between the lead-up to the Vietnam War to that of Iraq and how presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and George W. Bush distorted and exaggerated information and were supported by the media. With analysis by media critic Norman Solomon and narrated by actor Sean Penn, the latest war doc opens at the Quad Cinema on Friday.

Mini-Review: Clearly fans of Owen Morris and Alex Gibney, the makers of this film certainly must have had the best intentions in exploring how the government and media uses propaganda to get Americans behind decisions to go to war, but there’s a been-there done-that feel to the movie that makes it hard to appreciate. At first, it seems like just another heavily liberal anti-war rant against the current administration and the media with lots of CNN footage and Presidential speeches with lots of stuff we’ve heard before about "weapons of mass destruction," all dissembled and analyzed by Norman Solomon. It makes for a mostly dry and biased thesis with a lot of talking heads, most of which has been covered before and better by movies like "Why We Fight" and "The Fog of War." Granted, it’s very informative with its interesting angle on the current war and that’s what helps elevate it above biased "Fahrenheit 9/11" rehash, though it’s not nearly as entertaining, thought-provoking or moving as some of the other films on the subject. Rating: 6.5/10

Next week, it's Easter weekend and Tyler Perry returns (not that he's really gone away) with Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) as does Owen Wilson with Drillbit Taylor (Paramount), and just when you thought it was safe to take a picture, 20th Century Fox remakes the Thai horror film Shutter. Paparazzo, be scared.