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March 14, 2008

WW Update 3.13.08

Completely exhausted from this week's ShoWest Convention but wanted to get in a last minute update, even if theater counts aren't that different from earlier in the week. Apparently, the new The Incredible Hulk trailer is debuting with Neil Marshall's Doomsday and is being advertised as such, and while that might account for some of the movie's business this weekend, it's still not looking like the strongest new movie of the weekend. Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro is losing a significant amount of theaters this weekend and is likely to drop dramatically for the second weekend in a row.

Updated Predictions -


1. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) - $48.3 million N/A (same)

2. 10,000 BC (Warner Bros.) - $14.2 million -61% (+ .6 million)

3. College Road Trip (Disney) - $7.9 million -42% (same)

4. Never Back Down (Summit) - $7.4 million N/A (+ .5 million)

5. Doomsday (Universal) - $5.9 million N/A (+ .3 million)

6. Vantage Point (Sony) - $4.2 million -43% (- .2 million)

7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million -42% (+ .1 million)

8. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $2.7 million -53% (- .2 million)

9. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $2.4 million -48% (same)

10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.3 million -43% (+ .1 million)

March 12, 2008

The Weekend Warrior: March 14 - 16

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we planned a somewhat streamlined column to allow the Warrior to cover ShoWest in Las Vegas, but the world of Hollywood doesn't stop just because the Warrior is partying working away from home base, and this weekend sees one more chance for the box office to rebound after a number of bad weeks with disappointing showings.

The last hope of the winter/spring season might be the animated Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) featuring the voices of Jim Carrey and Steve Carell--reunited for the first time since facing off in Bruce Almighty--and the combination of their talent with the popular source material, a desirable G-Rating and the lack of strong kid and family material currently in theaters should make this another significant hit from the makers of the Ice Age movies. $40 million should be a foregone conclusion, and it's likely to push its way to $50 million, though it might be hard for it to do much more than that this weekend. One can expect it will make a lot of money over the next few weeks, especially with schools out for spring break and the long Easter weekend approaching.

For the young guys trying to catch something that might wash the sour taste of 10,000 BC out of their palates, there'll be two choices, the martial arts action-drama Never Back Down (Summit Entertainment) and Neil (The Descent) Marshall's third film, the apocalyptic action thriller Doomsday (Universal Pictures), which should split up audiences, although the lack of star power should keep either from making more than $7 million over the weekend, even if that's enough to get at least one of them into the Top 5.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 14 - 16" »

March 6, 2008

WW Updated 3.6.08

Once again, there are very few changes in the last few days to my earlier predictions although Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B. C. is not getting the over 3,500 theaters I expected, even though the buzz on the movie and the strong ad campaign should bring in enough curious young moviegoers to bring in $40 million this weekend even if its heavily frontloaded to Friday. Everything else is pretty much the same with Martin Lawrence's family comedy College Road Trip probably doing better than anyone expects and Jason Statham's The Bank Job bombing.

Updated Predictions -

1. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) - $41.8 million N/A (down .5 million)

2. College Road Trip (Disney) - $20.3 million N/A (down .2 million)

3. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $7.8 million -48% (down .2 million)

4. Vantage Point (Sony) - $7.1 million -45% (same)

5. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $5.6 million (up .3 million and one spot)

6. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $5.4 million -38% (same but down one spot)

7. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $4.7 million -42% (same)

8. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $3.9 million -49% (down .2 million)

9. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $3.2 million -44%

10. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $2.7 million -40%

-- Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $1.8 million N/A

And after the jump, you can read my mini-review of 10,000 B.C..

Continue reading "WW Updated 3.6.08" »

March 4, 2008

The Weekend Warrior: March 7 - 9

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where a dismal end to the month of February leads to a more hopeful launch to the month of March with three new movies offering a wide variety of genres, star power and effects-laden action, something for everyone essentially, although Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) will probably take a big chunk of the younger male audience that want to see cavemen fighting mammoths and sabretooth tigers. Or at least that's the hopes of Warner Bros. who are taking a big chance by opening what would normally be a big-budget summer movie at the beginning of March.

Disney isn't taking nearly as big a chance by teaming Martin Lawrence and Raven-Symoné in the G-rated College Road Trip, which should continue their string of spring comedy hits, as it does better than Lawrence's last movie Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins in bringing in Lawrence's African-American fanbase but a lot more families as well due to its rating and the Disney label.

Last but not least, Jason Statham returns to his British crime-drama roots with The Bank Job (Lionsgate), a heist flick loosely based on a famous British bank robbery, but despite Statham's popularity with Crank and the "Transporter" movies, this probably won't have the same appeal to Statham's video game enthusiast audience, so it'll probably be more for older guys, and its moderate release might keep it somewhere in the middle of the Top 10.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 7 - 9" »


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