ComingSoon.net Blog

« WW Update 2.07.08 | Main | WW Update 2.14.08 (final predictions!) »

The Weekend Warrior: February 14 - 18

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the special Valentine's and Presidents' Day weekend edition, and this might be a difficult weekend to predict with all four wide releases opening one day early to bring in some VD business, some of which might or might not take away from their business over the four-day weekend. In general, there's some strong choices this weekend that will offer something for everyone with only a little overlap, mostly between the two big budget effects movies based on young people's books that will get ultra-wide releases this weekend.

The movie to beat this weekend is the latest project from the filmmakers who introduced Brad Pitt to Angelina Jolie, director Doug Liman and writer Simon Kinberg (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), and their sci-fi action flick Jumper (20th Century Fox) that reunites Hayden Christensen and Samuel L. Jackson from the "Star Wars" prequels. With the strongest draw for older boys and men under 25, it's likely to win the weekend with $35 million or more, only held back by the amount of business it might lose to some of the other movies.

Younger fantasy fans might prefer something like The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon), starring Freddie "I've Never Met a Fantasy Film I Didn't Appear In" Highmore, based on the popular young adult books, which will probably be the first choice for families looking for something to take the kids to over the extended holiday weekend. It's less likely to be as frontloaded to Thursday and Friday as Jumper, and it should do enough business over Saturday and Sunday to bring it closer to the $30 million mark with help from its run in IMAX theaters.

Less than two years after the original movie danced into theaters to the tune of $20 million its opening weekend, the thematic sequel Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone) turns up with none of the cast or creative team of the original, yet will still try to bring in the same audience of young men and women that flocked to it. Although some of them should turn up on Valentine's Day and Friday night, it's likely to lose some of them to the other viable choices.

Usually, a romantic comedy like Definitely, Maybe (Universal) would fare well over Valentine's Day and the weekend after, but with a vague premise and title, this Ryan Reynolds-Abigail Breslin vehicle seems like it'll have trouble getting couples away from the other choices, so it probably will end up outside the Top 5 for the weekend. Still, with the extended holiday weekend, there should be enough moviegoers looking for something to see that all four new movies and the returning ones should bring in a good amount of business this weekend.

This Week's Predictions (All predictions are for the four-day holiday weekend) -

1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $36.3 million N/A

2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $26.4 million N/A

3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $17.8 million N/A

4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $15.5 million -28%

5. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $12.2 million -25%

6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $9.6 million N/A

7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) - $6.2 million -40% (Presuming its still playing in theaters)

8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.6 million -18%

9. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $4.2 million -23%

10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.0 million -25%

Last President's Day, Nicolas Cage brought the Marvel hero Ghost Rider (Sony) to the screens, and despite no critics' screenings (or maybe because of it), the action flick grossed $52 million over the four-day weekend, setting a new record for the holiday. Following closely behind, the PG fantasy film Bridge to Terabithia (Disney) brought in $28 million of business for second place, followed by Eddie Murphy's Norbit, which dropped to third. Last year's token romantic comedy Music and Lyrics, pairing Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore, brought in $15.8 million in business after opening on Wednesday along with Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls (Lionsgate), which became the urban mogul's first box office disappointment, having to settle for a fifth place opening with $13 million in the four days. Opening in less than 1,500 theatres, the political thriller Breach brought in an impressive $12.3 million with the third best per-theatre average of the new movies, just behind Terabithia. The Top 10 made an insane $163 million over the four days, an amount that might be hard to top unless some of the new movies far exceed our projections.


jumperww.jpgJumper (20th Century Fox)
Starring Hayden Christensen, Samuel L. Jackson, Rachel Bilson, Jamie Bell, Max Thieriot, Shawn Roberts, AnnaSophia Robb, Diane Lane
Directed by Doug LIman (The Bourne Identity, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Go); Written by David S. Goyer (Blade, Dark City, Batman Begins, upcoming The Flash, Magneto), Simon Kinberg (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, X-Men: The Last Stand, XXX: State of the Union), Jim Uhls (Fight Club)
Genre: Action, Sci-Fi, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Anywhere is possible."
Plot Summary: As a teen, David Rice (Hayden Christensen/Max Theiriot) discovers that he has the power to teleport, and he uses it to gain massive riches by robbing banks until he's discovered by the bounty hunter Roland (Samuel L. Jackson), the leader of a group of "paladins" whose mission it is to put a stop to all "jumpers", including another renegade (Jamie Bell).

Mini-Review: In terms of creating a superhero movie not based on an existing comic book character, "Jumper" is an impressive feat, especially as a vehicle for Doug Liman to pull out the stops with some of the most jaw-dropping stunts shot in some of the most amazing locations on earth. It all starts with a very cool ripped-from-the-comics premise of teleportation designed for fans of the Nightcrawler bits in the second "X-Men" movie, placing it in an intricate sci-fi storyline that moves at a brisk pace, giving you little time to dwell on anything for too long. Some might be bothered by the lack of any true good guys or bad guys, since all the characters offer a little of both--Hayden Kristensen's David Rice is an arrogant bank robber and Samuel Jackson's Roland is a fundamentalist who kills "jumpers" in the name of God--but there's something to be said about a movie that isn't completely cut-and-dry, adding to the film's ability at breaking new ground to create a unique sci-fi experience. At times, the movie gets a bit too WB with the relationship stuff between Kristensen and Bilson as his childhood sweetheart, but it gets better once Jamie Bell enters the picture as the gregarious rogue Griffin, a highly entertaining character who ups the ante with his own agenda adding to the mix. It's hard to hold any of the weak acting or character stuff against the movie because when it kicks into overdrive for one of its many fight sequences, you quickly forget all of that to get blown away by Liman's unique combination of stunts and effects that offer things you're not likely to have seen before and probably will never see again. Comic book fans should be excited by the prospect of seeing someone get the comic book fight sequence right without having the source material to base it on. Even more impressive are the amazing panoramic shots of Cairo and Rome that's sure to get anyone hungry for travel, because let's face it, how many times have we actually seen the interior of the Coliseum besides historic epics like "Gladiator" or "Ben-Hur"? Certainly, this will be a must-buy on DVD to pause and rewind and watch some of those scenes over and over again, but more than anything, this film introduces enough cool characters, unique concepts and a strong enough premise that it should be able to sustain at least one or two sequels, even if there's something cool about this as a stand-alone action flick. Rating: 7/10

It's been standard for Presidents' Day to see the release of a comic book based action movie with Daredevil, Constantine and last year's Ghost Rider holding three of the five top openings for the holiday weekend, since the weekend has become a viable alternate to releasing a movie during the busy summer months. This non-comic-based superhero movie based on the sci-fi novels by Steven Gould reteams the creative team behind the 2005 action hit Mr. & Mrs. Smith, which brought Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie together to the tune of $186 million. Director Doug Liman, who started out doing indies like Swingers and Go, made waves in '02 with his update of Robert Ludlum's The Bourne Identity and his success with the '05 follow-up Mr. & Mrs. Smith put him among the most bankable action directors, something which will be tested when he doesn't have the stars or namebrand of his previous films.

While Jumper may not have star power on par with a Brangelina, it does reunite the stars of two of the most successful sci-fi movies of all time, Star Wars Episodes II and III with Hayden Christensen (Analkin Skywalker) and Samuel L. Jackson (Mace Windu) playing the film's key roles, this time on opposite sides of an epic battle. Despite starring in two of the biggest movies of all time, Christensen hasn't had very much luck in his non-"Star Wars" career, only appearing in a handful of movies including the dramas Life as a House with Kevin Kline in 2001 and the critically lauded Shattered Glass. Last year, he starred with Sienna Miller in Factory Girl and ended the year with the thriller Awake opposite Jessica Alba, neither which made waves after being moved around the release schedule. At least Jumper is more the kind of movie that doesn't necessarily rely on Christensen's acting since more people will see it for its premise and the potential for cool stunts and effects.

One might think that Samuel Jackson's track record might help get people to see it, since he's starred in a lot of big movies, his entire filmography having cumulatively grossed $7.7 billion worldwide, yet he still has to prove himself as a box office draw on his own, as recent high-profile attempts like Snakes on a Plane and Black Snake Moan have failed to bring in the audiences expected. As a matter of fact, the only Jackson-starring vehicle that has grossed over $50 million without relying on other stars is 2005's Coach Carter. Even so, Jackson is a fan favorite who does bring something to the mix with every movie he stars in, which certainly can be said about both XXX movies even if the movies generally sucked.

Not as likely to be nearly as big a draw is ultra-cutie Rachel Bilson from the FOX series "The O.C.," who was last seen opposite Zach Braff in the romantic bomb The Last Kiss, and Jamie Bell, still best known as "Billy Elliot" even after nearly eight years, who has gotten scattered roles in bigger movies like Peter Jackson's King Kong. While Bell doesn't get to do any dancing in Jumper--he missed an opportunity by not being cast in Step Up 2 the Streets--he does do a lot of leaping from place to place. Either way, Jumper isn't the type of action and effects movie that relies on stars—which may be why none of them are mentioned in the commercials—and it becomes more evident when you realize that a major star like Diane Lane, who usually headlines any movie, is taking a smaller secondary role.

While Jumper has not been able to set itself up like a must-see event movie, going by past action and effects movies like Constantine, making $33 million over the four-day holiday weekend shouldn't be a problem, especially for a movie opening in over 3,300 theatres, though there are other factors to consider that might hold Jumper back. For instance, the film's not as likely to bring in the comic book fanbase that would rush out to see movies based on namebrand characters. Even though Jumper features the level of action and effects one might find in other superhero movies like the "X-Men" and "Fantastic Four" movies, it will have to find its own audience without the support of other media.

It might not seem like 20th Century Fox has done a ton of advertising for the movie despite it being in the works for a long time, but they've been able to advertise it on their television network, with big shows like "American Idol" and the Super Bowl being the perfect outlets to get lots of eyes and interest.

Jumper has a lot more competition than Daredevil did its opening weekend. Last year's Ghost Rider, the current record holder for the weekend, went up against four other movies, but still was able to set a record, although the movies it opened against probably went after different audiences. Like the books, this movie is more likely to appeal to a teen audience than those over 25, which is fine since that's a big moviegoing group, but this weekend, they have other choices Step Up 2 and Spiderwick Chronicles, although those are more likely to appeal to young women than guys. It's not likely that critics will be too kind with Jumper as they were with Cloverfield, but the young audience interested in this one probably won't care.

The big question is how opening on Thursday might affect the weekend number, since this kind of movie would usually be frontloaded since anyone intrigued by the premise might want to see it early. Since it's not exactly a date movie, it probably won't get a Valentine's Day bump on Thursday like Fool's Gold or Definitely, Maybe, so its biggest days will probably be on Friday and Saturday. At best, the movie could do as well as other solid action flicks over the holiday, making close to $40 million or more in its first five days. At worst, it could end up like Fox's last attempt at a "superhero movie" based on a novel, which was Fox Walden's similarly titled The Seeker, which bombed despite an ultra-wide release.

Why I Should See It: Director Doug Liman's return with a cool premise like this one should allow him to pull out all the stops on this effects-driven action flick.
Why Not: Not being based on a known property like a long-running comic book, might make it hard to convince casual moviegoers that it's worth seeing.
Projections: $6 to $7 million on its opening day Thursday, followed by $34 to 37 million over the four-day holiday weekend and $95 to 100 million total.

COMPARISONS


spiderwickww.jpgThe Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon Films)
Starring Freddie Highmore, Mary-Louise Parker, Joan Plowright, David Strathairn, and the voices of Nick Nolte, Seth Rogen, Martin Short
Directed by Mark Waters (Freaky Friday, Mean Girls, Just Like Heaven); Written by John Sayles, Karey Kirkpatrick (Charlotte's Web, Over the Hedge), David Berenbaum (Zoom, Elf, The Haunted Mansion)
Genre: Fantasy, Adventure, Family
Rated PG
Tagline: "Their World is Closer Than You Think"
Plot Summary: When the Grace family moves into a old mansion in upstate New York, their son Jared (Freddie Highmore) finds an ancient book that contains information about all sorts of magical and mythical creatures including fairies and goblins and trolls, all of which come to life to try to get the book away from him, putting his whole family into danger.

Mini-Review: Once you get past the fact that you’ll be seeing two times as much Freddie Highmore because of his role as twins, not to mention any general cynicism surrounding the overabundance of fantasy movies these days, it’s not hard to get swept up in the way the film transplants traditional creatures from myth and fantasy into the real world in a fluid and transparent manner. That combination of creature effects, action and believable situations is what ultimately puts the movie on par with the first couple "Harry Potter" movies, setting the groundwork with its simple plot of: boy finds book, creatures want book, all hell breaks loose. There’s something to be said about fitting so much story within such a short span of time and keeping things moving without confusing matters with overly confusing exposition, and Mark Waters does a superb job entering this new territory. With a strong cast including David Strathairn, the acting is reasonably decent, though at times, it gets too caught up in the family melodrama stuff, taking away from any sense of fun, which is generally found in the forms of the creatures voiced by Martin Short and Seth Rogen, both of whom offer the film’s best and only laughs. While it doesn’t break much new ground in the fantasy department as far as looking or feeling unique or different, the magical sense of realism brought to traditional fantasy creatures makes it an enjoyable addition to the fantasy genre that the whole family can enjoy, with the exception of some the creatures and action, which might be too intense for the youngest of viewers. Rating: 7.5/10

The success of the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy (grossing $3 billion worldwide) and the five "Harry Potter" movies (almost $4.5 billion worldwide) since 2001 has gotten everyone in Hollywood excited about buying the rights to every single childreb's book or fantasy novel hoping for similar success. Walden Media certainly has found similar success adapting teen and children's fantasy novels like C. S. Lewis' The Chronicles of Narnia and last year's The Bridge to Terabithia, but other attempts to bring books like Eragon and Philip Pullman's His Dark Materials to the screen have proven fruitless money-losing ventures.

Still, that didn't dissuade long-time Spielberg collaborators Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall from teaming with Nickelodeon Films to give the fantasy game a go with a movie based on the serialized novels by Holly Black and illustrator Tony DiTerlizzi, five books collectively known as "The Spiderwick Chronicles," which were released starting in 2003, finding themselves a diehard fanbase of young readers over the years. Certainly, the team of Kennedy/Marshall must know what they're doing, having been involved with some of Spielberg's biggest hits of the '80s and '90s, and the involvement of Nickelodeon means that they have a clear path to the young audience that might appreciate a fantasy film like this.

Helming the movie is Mark Waters, who's found success with comedies like Freaky Friday and Mean Girls, both with Lindsay Lohan, as well as Reese Witherspoon's Just Like Heaven. The Spiderwick Chronicles seems as much a departure for him as The Golden Compass was for Chris Weitz (or the first two "Harry Potter" movies were for Chris Columbus for that matter).

Spiderwick Chronicles stars the omni-present Freddie Highmore, who turns 16 on Thursday, but who's been appearing in family movies like Finding Neverland and Tim Burton's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory since he was very young. 2007 was a very busy year for Highmore as he began it as the star of Luc Besson's Arthur and the Invisibles, a huge flop, in the musical drama August Rush, which was moderately successful over Thanksgiving weekend, and then he provided a key voice in the aforementioned The Golden Compass to wrap up his year. Clearly, Highmore is becoming a well-known and popular young actor among kids who've watched him grow up on film, although he's still not up there with Daniel Radcliffe in terms of being a draw for young girls or parents. Maybe by playing twins in this movie, that will change.

His mother is played by popular theatre and television actress Mary-Louise Parker, who's been winning Emmys left and right in recent years for her cable show "Weeds" and the mini-series "Angels in America," while his sister is played by Irish actress Sarah Bolger, best known for her turn in Jim Sheridan's In America. Oscar nominated David Strathairn also appears in his first movie since 2006's We Are Marshall and the voices of the various creatures include Nick Nolte as the primary baddie, the goblin king Mulgrath, Judd Apatow's pal Seth Rogen and the one and only Martin Short.

Paramount's previous foray into the world of big budget fantasy was 2004's Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Incidents starring Jim Carrey, that made $30 million its opening weekend but only $118 million overall, making it unprofitable and nowhere near the level of box office brought in by "Harry Potter" or "Lord of the Rings" that someone must have expected. Unfortunately, this one's being released after the disappointing showing for New Line's The Golden Compass, which has turned a lot of casual moviegoers off on the fantasy genre, so it has a bit of an uphill battle winning them back.

This time, Paramount is following two proven strategies of successful fantasy films, first by releasing it over Presidents' Day like Disney/Walden's surprise hit The Bridge to Terabithia, which is based on a book not nearly as well known as the "Spiderwick" books. More importantly, they're following Warner Bros.' strategy for the last few "Harry Potter" movies, opening Spiderwick in IMAX theaters across the country, which to many will be the optimum way of seeing the movie. Since these are bigger theaters with higher ticket prices, it's likely to boost the per-theatre average.

The biggest advantage this movie has is that it's the only thing remotely resembling a family film, and it will have to rely on that since there's plenty of competition for younger teen women who generally enjoy fantasy, including Step Up 2 the Streets, and guys of all ages might veer towards Jumper while older women might go for some of the romantic fare, but there's still a fairly rampant audience for fantasy, and a movie like this, which mixes traditional fantasy with real world stuff, should be able to find a decent younger audience even if the competition keeps it from doing much better than Eragon or The Golden Compass opening weekend. Of all the movies this weekend, this is the one that's most likely to build on strong reviews and word-of-mouth from opening weekend business, and it should have significant legs with no other family fare being released until March.

Why I Should See It: Goblins and fairies and other magical creatures… oh my!
Why Not: Haven't we already seen this before, when it was called "Harry Potter"?
Projections: $4 to 6 million on Thursday, another $25 to 28 million over the four-day weekend and roughly $90 million total.

COMPARISONS


stepup2ww.jpgStep Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone)
Starring Briana Evigan, Robert Hoffman, Will Kemp, Cassie Ventura, Adam G. Sevani, Telisha Shaw
Directed by Jon M. Chu (Silent Beats, When the Kids are Away) Written by Toni Ann Johnson (Save the Last Dance--the TV show), Karen Barna
Genre: Dance, Musical, Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "It's Not Where You're From. It's Where You're At."
Plot Summary: Street dancer Andie (Briana Evigan) arrives at the Maryland School of the Arts where she tries to fit in, teaming with the school's best dancer Chase (Robert Hoffman) to create a team to compete in the underground dance battle called The Streets. (So basically, this is exactly the same as the first Step Up only with the genders reversed.)

This weekend's anomalous underdog is the only dance movie sequel to make it to theaters rather than being released straight to DVD, but it's no surprise since very little was made of the original Step Up when it opened in August of '06, after being snuck into the weekend earlier that summer, and yet it was able to capitalize on a powerful MySpace marketing campaign to bring in $20 million of business its opening weekend. While this isn't a direct sequel in the sense that it has nothing to do with the characters from the original movie, nor have any of the cast or creative team returned, except that it's a similar romantic drama set within the world of street dancing. Like the first Step Up, this is a hip hop dance movie for young white suburban girls who want to learn some new moves in a safe Disney-friendly environment.

Of course, this movie would never exist if not for the surprise success of Save the Last Dance back in 2001, the movie that originated the premise of the hip hop dance movie craze that spawned similar success in movies like You Got Served and last year's Stomp the Yard. The most recent dance movie How She Move bombed in theaters, showing that the crazy may have peaked or reached its limit, maybe because Paramount Vantage, teamed with MTV Films, didn't build any buzz for the movie, despite it being choreographed by "Hi-Hat" who also helped with the dancing scenes in Step Up 2.

Some might feel that the original movie had some success due to its hunky teen heartthrob star Channing Tatum, who is nowhere to be found in this debut vehicle for Briana Evigan, the 21-year-old daughter of actor Greg Evigan (who presumably is only one of her "Two Dads"… ha ha), and it's also the biggest acting role for dancer and choreographer Robert Hoffman, though neither of them will be any sort of draw. Neither will former Gap spokesperson Will Kemp's return to the big screen for the first time since Van Helsing and Mindhunters, getting back to his dancing roots.

Buzz for the film has been built up via the movie's MySpace page, a grass roots internet campaign that allowed the first movie to build awareness while slipping under the radar of mainstream media, and like that movie, the music and soundtrack will play a large part in generating interest with new tracks from Missy Elliot, Lil Wayne, Akon and other popular hip hop and dance artists. Currently, it's the only February movie placing on the Yahoo! Buzz Charts, showing that there is a lot of interest in the movie on the web, much like the first movie. How that might translate to those who might pay to see the movie in theaters is another question.

As with the first movie, one probably shouldn't expect any sort of groundswell among critics or movie-related sites or shows, because other than the fans of the first movie (and dance movies in general), few will care. Because of that, this may be a real test for the dance movie craze, being a sequel to one of the more successful entries, opening in a different season, but it's also opening against much stronger fare that could be a bigger pull for the young adults who might normally make this their first choice, even if dance movies have been more consistent than action and fantasy films in recent years. Expect this one to do well on Valentine's Day as a viable alternative to the normal romantic comedy fare, possibly even surpassing Jumper in 1,000 fewer theatres, and it should also do well on Friday, but by Saturday or Sunday, the other movies should catch up and overtake it, since the early opening might take away from the movie's potential opening weekend business.

Why I Should See It: Who needs to know how to dance when they can watch highly-skilled dancers bust a move on screen?
Why Not: If I have to write about another dance movie this year, I might have to take some of those background dancers out!
Projections: $5 to 6 million on opening Valentine's Day, and another $16 to 19 million over the four-day holiday weekend on its way to roughly $52 million total.

COMPARISONS


definitelyww.jpgDefinitely, Maybe (Universal)
Starring Ryan Reynolds, Isla Fisher, Derek Luke, Abigail Breslin, Elizabeth Banks, Rachel Weisz
Written and directed by Adam Brooks (writer of Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason and Wimbledon)
Genre: Romance, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline:
Plot Summary: Shortly before his divorce is to be finalized, Will Hayes (Ryan Reynolds) is asked by his 10-year-old daughter Maya (Abigail Breslin) to tell the story of how he met her mother. Will tells the story of his first days in New York during the early '90s where he juggled three very different women in hopes that one of them would end up being his perfect soul mate, letting the girl try to deduce which one worked out.

My Review

Even though we've had a bunch of romantic comedies already this month with the dud Over Her Dead Body followed by the semi-hit Fool's Gold, here's one more to add to the mix on Valentine's Day, this one from Working Title and Universal, two companies who've teamed for some of the most memorable rom-com offering of the last few years, most of them being set in England.

This one's set in New York, the location for many a romantic comedy both good and bad, but it's also more in line with the 2002 Hugh Grant vehicle About a Boy or John Cusack's High Fidelity in that it's told from the male point-of-view. Playing that guy is Ryan Reynolds, the Canadian actor who got his big break when he starred in National Lampoon's Van Wilder but who has been in a variety of different movies since then, starring in The Amityville Horror remake and the superhero flick Blade: Trinity before finding his niche doing comedy in Just Friends, which is somewhat of a precursor for this role.

This time, Reynolds is paired with a number of leading ladies but the most prominent one is the youngest, Oscar-nominated actress Abigail Breslin, who has followed her break-through title role in Little Miss Sunshine with cutesy roles in romantic comedies like this one, after starring opposite Catherine Zeta-Jones and Aaron Eckhart in last year's rom-com remake No Reservations. Aussie actress Isla Fischer first got attention in the blockbuster comedy Wedding Crashers and this movie might appeal to the same audience, while Elizabeth Banks, whose biggest role has been playing Betty Brant in the "Spider-Man" movies, hasn't really broken out despite great roles in James Gunn's Slither and more famously, the freaky-deaky Beth in The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Despite having recently appeared with Banks in Vince Vaughn's Fred Claus, Rachel Weisz isn't known for doing light romantic fare like this, but after winning an Oscar for Fernando Meirelles' The Constant Gardener and starring in hubby Darren Aronofsky's The Fountain, she's been taking more roles in comedies. Then again, some might already be forgetting that Weisz had a small key role in About a Boy back in the day, so appearing in Working Title's latest rom-com is not that big of a stretch.

Either way, none of these actors are much of a draw at the box office, which makes Definitely, Maybe somewhat of a risky move even on the holiday when romantic fare tends to do well, since most of the successful romantic comedies have a known television or film star capable of bringing women into theatres. On top of that, the movie's title and premise of a father and his young daughter trying to help him find love is fairly vague compared to the high concept romantic comedies that have done well among fans of the genre. Facing movies like Fool's Gold and Step Up 2 the Streets might make it a harder sell for couples on Valentine's Day, and though it should still do decent business on Thursday and possibly on date night Friday and Saturday, it's not likely to set the world on fire facing so much stronger fare in theaters. Then again, if the movie does well, it would be good for Reynolds' career, since it will finally disprove theories that he's unable to bring people, particularly women, into theatres. (He's a nice guy so he deserves to see some success, especially after Just Friends was so sadly overlooked.)

Why I Should See It: Ryan Reynolds continues his move to become a romantic lead in this new rom-com from Working Title, who tend to make stronger romantic comedies than Hollywood studios.
Why Not: Is it just me or is Abigail Breslin becoming the most annoying child actor since Dakota Fanning?
Projections: $3 to 5 million on opening Valentine's Day, another $9 to 11 million over the four-day Presidents' Day weekend and roughly $30 million total.

COMPARISONS


THE CHOSEN ONE:

yearmyparentsww.jpgThe Year My Parents Went on Vacation (City Lights)
Starring Michel Joelsas, Daniela Piepszyk, Liliana Castro
Written and directed by Cao Hamburger
Genre: Drama, Coming-of-Age
Unrated
Plot Summary: 12-year-old Mauro (Michel Joelsas) is left by his militant parents with his Jewish grandfather, only to discover that he had passed away, forcing him to take refuge with the members of his synagogue and the diverse community from his neighborhood. As the country roots for Brazil in the 1970 World Cup, Mauro just wants his parents to return.

I'm a huge fan of Brazilian cinema and it's a shame that more of it doesn't make its way to the United States. In a few weeks, City of Men, the long-awaited follow-up to Fernando Meirelles' City of God will be released—and maybe it'll be that week's Chosen One, too--but in the meantime, here is Brazil's annual offering for Oscar consideration, a wonderful coming-of-age film by Cao Hamburger, who actually directed one of the episodes of the "City of Men" TV show. (Meirelles is one of the film's co-producers.)

What made this film special for me is that the story takes pace in 1970 in Sao Paulo, and it just so happens that I was living in Sao Paulo at that time, so I fondly remember the fanaticism surrounding the World Cup during my childhood, something that's carried over until today, because I'm still a diehard fan of the Brazilian team when they play in the World Cup. This is the type of under-the-radar foreign film that gets discovered long after its release, much like last year's "Blame It On Fidel" which had similar elements of a young child trying to understand how the world is changing around them and how their parents are involved in the communist revolution. While the movie tends to follow familiar beats and rhythms found in other coming-of-age films, the setting and times is what makes it different, and for the most part, Hamburger gets the feel of the times right. The Jewish element of this movie is unique to it, and it was interesting to me, because I don't remember much of that from when I was younger—though I do remember seeing our rabbi being shot in front of me, an image that's stuck with me for most of my life. Michel Joelsas, the young actor who carries the film, is quite a find, smart and well-spoken rather than being one of those cute kids who quickly gets annoying. No, this isn't a perfect movie by any means—the pace tends to be very slow and the elderly Jewish man who takes care of him says "Oy Vey" a bit much—but the nostalgia factor certainly played a large part of my enjoyment, and I'd recommend the movie to anyone who only knows about the Brazil through City of God, because there's another side to the country, one that I remember fondly from my youth, that makes this a fun and charming film. Thanks to Cao Hamburger for bringing back so many fond memories from my childhood.

The Year My Parents Went on Vacation opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Also in Limited Release:

Ezra (California Newsreel) – Newton Aduaka's African drama looks at the growing problems of child soldiers in Africa through the eyes of Ezra, who was abducted and brainwashed at the age of 6, but who ten years later has to face the Truth and Reconciliation Commission on the horrors he committed while a child. It opens on Wednesday at the Film Forum in New York.

The 2007 Academy Award Nominated Short Films (Magnolia) – Once again, Magnolia Pictures releases a collection of the Oscar-nominated short films, both animated and live action, so that people can see them before Oscar night. This year's program includes all five live action and all five animated shorts, shown in two separate programs in 50 theaters in select cities.

Dolphins and Whales 3D: Tribes of the Ocean (3D Entertainment Division) - Dr. Elisabeth and Jean-Jacques Mantello, the makers of Sharks 3D and Ocean Wonderland 3D, return with another IMAX 3D experience that explores the coral reefs of the Bahamas and other places to see dolphins and oceans in their natural habitat. It opens on Friday in select IMAX theatres.

George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Third Rail/Weinstein Co.) - George Romero, the creator of the zombie genre, returns with a new take which tells the story of a zombie invasion through a group of young filmmakers whose footage is found after the fact. Romero's cross between "Night of the Living Dead" meets "The Blair Witch Project" will open in select cities on Friday with an expansion next week.
My Thoughts from the Toronto Film Festival

Jodhaa Akbar (UTV) - Indian superstar/goddess Aishwarya Rai stars in Ashutosh Gowariker's 16th Century romantic drama about a marriage of alliance that gave birth to the true love between Mughal emperor and a Rajput princess. It opens in the normal outlets for Bollywood films.

Me, You and Us Forever (Five & Two Pictures) – Dave Christiano wrote and directed this Christian-themed film about a middle-aged Christian man who reflects back on his first love in high school thirty years before after going through a bitter divorce. It opens in roughly 50 to 60 locations on Friday.


Next week, four more movies open in wide release including the political thriller Vantage Point (Sony) and Michel (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) Gondry's Be Kind Rewind (New Line) starring Jack Black and Mos Def. Larry the Cable Guy returns with his third movie Witless Protection (Lionsgate), and the dark teen comedy Charlie Bartlett (MGM) finally opens after being delayed for most of the last year.

Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas

Comments (3)

I think you need to get your facts straight. First off, "Director Doug Liman, who started out doing indies like Swingers and Go, made waves in '02 with his update of Robert Ludlum's The Bourne Identity and his success with the '05 follow-up put him among the most bankable action directors." Doug Liman did not direct the follow up to Bourne Identity, Paul Greengrass did. And secondly, Channing Tatum is actually in Step Up 2, but only a cameo. Havent you seen the trailer? I read your Weekend Warrior every week and this is the first major error I have encountered and it surprises me. Thanks!

Headstrong88..

"Doug Liman's '05 follow-up" wasn't referring to "The Bourne Supremacy", but to the aforementioned "Mr. and Mrs. Smith". It was Doug Liman's FOLLOW-UP to his PREVIOUS film, which was "Bourne". I think Ed meant it that way. We'll see when he responds.

I didn't notice Channing Tatum in the trailer unless that was him at the beginning. I dunno... all the guys look the same.

Definitely looking forward to JUMPER and SPIDERWICK. I'm seeing JUMPER first (Doug Liman makes really cool action movies. I also really like Rachel Bilson..such a cutie. Jamie Bell's awesome too). I'll probably see SPIDERWICK on Monday when there's nothing to do.

And eesh, my wallet's gonna take a beating next weekend..CHARLIE BARTLETT I definitely want to see..BE KIND REWIND I've been looking forward to for a while and VANTAGE POINT looks like a spiffy little action movie that can be crazy fun. Mindless but fun.

:]

thanks ethaneverett. i realized that after i posted it, he was referring to mr and mrs. smith, my mistake. but channing tatum is in the trailer in the beginning talking to the main girl, his sister. it looks to be a one scene spot, but nontheless, he still is technically in it! looking forward to Jumper as well!

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Search


About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 12, 2008 11:11 AM.

The previous post in this blog was WW Update 2.07.08.

The next post in this blog is WW Update 2.14.08 (final predictions!).

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

COMINGSOON SECTIONS: Main | Features | Movie News | Trailers & Clips | Film Database | Movie Release Dates | Movie Reviews | Top Previews | Production Stills | Awards Central | TV News | DVD News | DVD Release Dates | DVD Reviews | The Weekend Warrior | Box Office Report | Boards | Contact Us | News Feeds | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Copyright Statement | Superhero Hype! | ShockTillyouDrop.com | TheBadandUgly.com

Hosted by NEXCESS.net


© 1998 - 2008 Coming Soon Media, L.P. All rights reserved. © 2004 - 2008 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All rights reserved
Not in any way associated with Crave Entertainment, Inc. or Crave Magazine®

MORE IN THE CRAVE FILM CHANNEL: ONLINE VIDEOS AND CRAZY VIDEOS AT CRAVEONLINE | SUPERHERO HYPE! | SHOCKTILLYOUDROP.COM