Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year, we didn't do that great in this category, because we never foresaw Alan Arkin even getting a nomination over the likes of Jack Nicholson or Brad Pitt, but that is indeed what happened and then Arkin went on to win the whole shebang, denying Eddie Murphy probably his only chance at winning an Oscar. This year's supporting actor race is somewhat more clear-cut thanks to the similarities between the pre-Oscar nominations, which shows strong support for a number of actors. It's good to remember that only the Academy and Screen Actors Guild are nominated by actual actors, which might make them closer, although only a small percentage of SAG nominating committee might also be in the Academy and vice versa.

The Favorite(s):

From the first screenings of Joel & Ethan Coen's adaptation of Cormack McCarthy's No Country for Old Men at Cannes in May right through its festival screenings in September, actor Javier Bardem, who was nominated in the lead actor category in 2000 for Julian Schnabel's Before Night Falls, has been making waves for his performance as the ruthless assassin Anton Shigurh. It's a character that's been compared to Anthony Hopkins' Dr. Hannibal Lecter and other great film characters, and it's also very different from the roles we've seen Bardem play in the past. So far, Bardem has won just about every single critics award with only a few groups going with others.

And those others have mostly been impressed by Casey Affleck's performance as Robert Ford in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, which has created a lot of buzz for the young actor, as has his leading role in his older brother Ben's directorial debut Gone Baby Gone. With the leading actor category being very crowded as usual, there's a much better chance of Affleck getting nominated here and he may be one of the only potential spoilers that might keep Bardem from winning the Oscar after sweeping the category over the last few months.

The Others:

The only other actor to be getting unanimous acclaim across the board is previous Oscar nominee Tom Wilkinson for his role as a corporate lawyer having a breakdown in Michael Clayton, and there's very little keeping him from being a sure nomination.

So that's three almost guaranteed nominations, then the other two will likely be chosen from two or three others. Although Philip Seymour Hoffman didn't get a SAG nomination for his performance as a slacker CIA agent in the political comedy Charlie Wilson's War, it's undeniable that he's the best thing about the movie. Although Hoffman has two other strong performances this past year for Sidney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and Tamara Jenkins' The Savages, it's more likely that he'll be honored in the supporting category this year, since it's far lighter.

The Academy is famous for their honoring of older veteran actors who've been overlooked in the past, and you can't get a better candidate for that role than Hal Holbrook, who makes a small but pivotal appearance over 90 minutes into Sean Penn's Into the Wild. Surprisingly, Holbrook has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite having many Emmy nominations under his belt, which makes Holbrook this year's older alliterate ala Alan Arkin last year and Alan Alda a couple years before that.

Longshots:

While the five above seem like the strongest candidates, Bardem's co-star in No Country for Old Men, Tommy Lee Jones--they never actually appear on screen together--received a supporting nomination from the Screen Actors Guild, which usually increases one's chances at an Oscar nomination, although there's some confusion about whether Jones' role should be considered lead or supporting, which is likely to split votes due to the way the Academy counts the votes, making it less likely for Jones to receive his third nomination in the category.

For a long time, Paul Dano was thought to be a shoe-in for his manic performance as an evangelical minister in P.T. Anderson's fifth movie There Will Be Blood, but there's been little support from critics or other groups, so Dano may have to wait a bit longer to get his due.

Likewise, John Travolta's performance in drag as Edna Turnbald in the movie musical Hairspray got a supporting nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press who would usually love that sort of comedy/musical. (Oddly, SAG nominated the entire ensemble but not Travolta individually.) Travolta is a two-time Oscar nominee for Pulp Fiction and Saturday Night Fever having never won, but this isn't the role that will get him a third nomination.

My Personal Pick (s): Ben Foster in 3:10 to Yuma. A colleague of mine hated James Mangold's Western because he was bothered by the implications of the relationship between Foster's psychotic gunslinger and his boss, played by Russell Crowe. Me, I'm blown away by the intensity that Foster brings to every role he plays, and that was definitely the case with this movie, too. Of all the performance, his was the one that stuck with me the longest.

Also, in terms of old-timers who deserve more respect, you can't beat Max von Sydow, who appears in two moving scenes in Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and really made that movie, yet seems to be getting overlooked by so many for this awards-worthy performance. It's a shame because one has to wonder how many great roles like this he'll be getting.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, Holbrook, Wilkinson
HFPA: Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, Travolta, Wilkinson
SAG: Affleck, Bardem, Holbrook, Tommy Lee Jones, Wilkinson

Travolta and Tommy Lee Jones seem to be the odd men out with only one nomination each, while Holbrook and Hoffman have two and the rest have three. Seems pretty easy to see where things are going. It's Bardem's Oscar and it'll be hard for any of the others to get it out of his grasp with Affleck being the only possible spoiler.

The Nominations: Javier Bardem, Casey Affleck, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook, Tom Wilkinson (alt: Paul Dano)

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

One of the easier categories last year with Jennifer Hudson being the frontrunner months before she won an Oscar for her first movie role, this year should be a little bit more interesting.

The Favorite(s):

The closest thing we'll get this awards season to a Miramax vs. Weinstein Company face-off will be in the supporting actress category where a past winner will be taking on a young upstart, and while Cate Blanchett came out as an early frontrunner for her impression of Bob Dylan in Todd Haynes' I'm Not There, critics have thrown much of their support for an actress who very few moviegoers had ever heard of before September. Blanchett stands a good chance at being the only nomination for Todd Haynes' latest movie, which wouldn't be surprising, since his regular leading lady Julianne Moore received one for his last movie Far From Heaven. While some might discount Blanchett's performance as mere impersonation, much like her Oscar-winning role in Martin Scorsese's The Aviator, it's far more than that, being the true heart and soul of the movie, and anyone who sees it walks away remembering it.

The biggest break-out surprise of the awards season has to be Amy Ryan, a darling of the New York stage who hadn't gotten too much attention for her movie or TV roles until she played the coke-sniffing neglectful mother in Ben Affleck's directorial debut Gone Baby Gone, a performance that has helped her win three of the major critics circle awards (New York, Boston, and L.A.) as well as the award from the National Board of Review. Clearly, she's ready to give Blanchett some competition, but as we've seen before, the Academy likes to go against the critics in this category, and as much as I hate to say it, Ryan seems to be this year's Virginia Madsen, who went all the way to Oscar night before being snubbed for the win by… you guessed it… Cate Blanchett.

The Others:

The driving force behind Tony Gilroy's corporate thriller Michael Clayton was the script and three fantastic performances and while a lot of attention is being placed on the two guys, one can't discard the fact that Tilda Swinton played a corporate baddie unlike any other movie villain we've seen, instilling her character with a surprising amount of vulnerability and empathy. She's already on the short list of nominations for all the other groups, though it still is hard to believe that this will be the first Oscar nomination for this talented actress.

One of the other returning candidates in this category is two-time nominee Catherine Keener, who has already received two key nominations for her performance in Sean Penn's Into the Wild--a small role that's as memorable as Hal Holbrook's performance later in the movie--and the general good will towards the actress should help carry her to a third supporting nomination in seven years.

The main character in Joe Wright's Atonement, Briony Tallis, is played over the course of decades by three actresses, and while newcomer Saoirse Ronan is the most impressive during the scene's first act, Vanessa Redgrave ties it all together with another one of her usually great appearances. Both of them were snubbed by the Screen Actors' Guild, which is daunting, but one should expect that one or both still have a strong chance at getting into that tough fifth slot. Redgrave, a beloved veteran with six nominations under her belt, stands a better chance, but the Academy loves to honor new talent, although more often we see that in the Lead Actress category. (Examples: Catalina Sandina Moreno, Keisha Castle-Hughes)

The Longshots:

Millions of people have been discovering Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody's Juno in the last few weeks, and when they do see it, after admiring the script by Diablo Cody and Ellen Page's performance, they're starting to notice how great Jennifer Garner is in the role of a yuppie woman looking forward to being a mother. She's a longshot without having any previous nominations but the love for this movie and its commercial success could get her noticed.

Legendary actress Ruby Dee made an amazing return to the screen in Ridley Scott's American Gangster with one particularly emotional scene opposite Denzel Washington which helped get her a SAG nomination, and there's still that thing about the Academy being prone to honoring older acting legends.

It's even less likely that Emmanuelle Seigner will get recognition for her role as the supportive estranged wife in Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly for the same reason why none of the other actors are likely to get attention.

My Personal Pick (s): I'm going to cheat and go for three actresses who I loved this year. As great as Ryan Gosling is in Lars and the Real Girl, he had a lot of support from the ladies, and not just the sex doll Bianca. Kelli Garner and Emily Mortimer both brought their A-games to this dramedy with powerful emotional scenes that really make this movie special and show a lot of promising talent that might see either one nominated for future roles.

A favorite of mine since she debuted in Danny Boyle's Trainspotting, Scotland's Kelly Macdonald is almost unrecognizable in the Coens' No Country for Old Men, mainly due to her Southern accent, but she has a number of great scenes opposite Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem that really stick with the viewer. As one of the few female roles in the movie--ala Vera Farmiga in Martin Scorsese's The Departed last year--she should be getting a lot more acknowledgment for what she brings to the mix.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Blanchett, Keener, Redgrave, Ryan, Swinton
HFPA: Blanchett, Julia Roberts, Ronan, Ryan, Swinton
SAG: Blanchett, Ruby Dee, Keener, Ryan, Swinton

There seems to be some very clear repetition in the nominations so far with Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton being the same across the board, and then Vanessa Redgrave, Saoirse Ronan, Ruby Dee and Julia Roberts getting one each. One normally would go with the Screen Actors Guild, which gives Keener an advantage, but there's also room for a young ingénue this year and you can't get younger than the young Irish actress. While Ryan might be pulling ahead as the "favorite" due to the number of critics' awards she's won, it's more likely that the Academy's enduring love for Blanchett will convince them to award her a second Oscar for her latest impression of a famous celebrity.

The Nominations: Cate Blanchett, Catherine Keener, Saoirse Ronan, Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton (Alts: Vanessa Redgrave, Jennifer Garner)

Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Once again, the most crowded and convoluted category of the year, and while there are a couple definite frontrunners, there's also a lot of uncertainty, as the earlier nominations have been consistent but all over the place in terms of familiar faces and newbies. We did pretty good in this category last year, only missing Ryan Gosling and picking the wrong movie for Leonardo DiCaprio, but like last year, there's a clear-cut frontrunner who will be hard to bring down.

The Favorite(s):

It would have to take another act of God to deny Daniel Day-Lewis his second Oscar for Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood, because it's a performance that has been blowing people away, even those who aren't so crazy about the movie. The last time Lewis played this type of role was Bill the Butcher in Martin Scorsese's Gangs of New York and he took that all the way through the awards season until Oscar night when he lost in a surprise upset by young Adrien Brody. The Academy might not feel beholden to Lewis since he has won an Oscar in the past, but the actor appears in so few movies these days that giving him a well-deserved Oscar might tempt him to stick around this time.

Just when you thought George Clooney peaked with his supporting Oscar win for Syriana two years ago, he returns in "Bourne" scribe Tony Gilroy's directorial debut Michael Clayton as the corporate clean-up man that's blown everyone away by Clooney's ability to temper his normal confidence with a surprising amount of vulnerability. It's a great leading man performance for Clooney, but it's the last end credits sequence of Clooney's title character sitting in a cab reflecting over what has gone before that has left the most lasting impression on anyone who's seen the movie, and the popular actor (who's been conducting a more low-key campaign) could charm his way to a surprise victory.

The Others:

A couple colleagues of mine have been convinced for months that Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd would be the role that gets Johnny Depp that Oscar that he's missed twice before, and there's no denying that his performance as the title character is one that really stays with you. Depp's inability to receive a nomination by his SAG peers is daunting, because no actor has ever won an Oscar without getting that important prerequisite. Let's not forget that Depp actually WON a Screen Actors Guild award for his first appearance as Captain Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, so his omission is more noticeable. On the other hand, Depp has been nominated for 8 Golden Globes without ever having received one, and if he wins in the Musical/Comedy category, there's a good chance, he'll get through to the Oscars.

The other two slots are likely to be filled by one of two young guns who have been building up their resumes with well-received performances in smaller movies, and another veteran actor who's been unable to get the appreciation that comes with awards despite playing many strong roles including one in a recent Best Picture. It was somewhat of a surprise when the Broadcast Film Critics and SAG showed their support for Viggo Mortensen as a Russian gangster in David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises, since few pundits had thought of him as a possibility, but apparently, he impressed voters with the shocking nude fight sequence in the movie more than for his ability to pull off a credible Russian accent. The power of suggestion is a strong thing and having three nominations under his belt before the Oscar nominations ballots went out will get voters to watch the movie (which conveniently was released on DVD around the same time).

Less surprising is the support of Ryan Gosling, who was nominated just last year, but who looks to be Johnny Depp's spoiler for his low-key performance in Lars and the Real Girl, but it's more likely that the Academy will show their support for 22-year-old Emil Hirsch in his first entry into awards season with his performance as Christopher McCandless in Sean Penn's Into the Wild, a role that had him working out in the wilds of Alaska and losing a ton of weight in order to get into character. It's the kind of dedication to a role that we've seen from the likes of Robert De Niro and Christian Bale (who's long past due for a nomination himself) and it's far more jarring than Gosling's weight gain for his role. Hirsch was overlooked by the Hollywood Foreign Press as was the movie, but it's an oversight that should be corrected by the Academy with the support from SAG.

The Longshots:

While the Hollywood Foreign Press nominated Denzel Washington for his performance as Harlem druglord Frank Lucas in Ridley Scott's American Gangster, it hasn't been very long since Washington's Oscar win for Training Day, a similar character, but also a much stronger emotional performance compared to his latest. The cast of American Gangster was nominated by SAG in their Ensemble Category, but Washington was omitted, which means he probably won't get an Oscar nomination either.

Another young gun who has been ignored for way too long but finally got to the point where one couldn't ignore him any longer is Scottish actor James McAvoy, who is amazing in the lead role of Joe Wright's Atonement, giving a performance that's far more memorable than his well known co-star Keira Knightley. This should be the year he gets a nomination after being omitted for last year's The Last King of Scotland, but sadly, he might get edged out by a number of memorable roles.

Matthieu Amalric doesn't do much in Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly except wink at a lot of pretty women, but those who know Amalric's previous body of work, which consisted of livelier characters, were probably duly impressed with what he does here. Since Javier Bardem was snubbed for a far more active performance as a quadriplegic in the 2004 Oscar foreign language winner The Sea Inside, I'd expect the little-known French actor to be snubbed for his underrated performance as well, especially in such a crowded category.

My Personal Pick (s): The biggest crime of this Oscar season will be the fact that so many critics and awards groups are ignoring the performance by Benicio Del Toro in Susanne Bier's drama Things We Lost in the Fire, which is one of the most heartbreaking characters he's ever played. The movie tanked in theatres despite strong critical support and Del Toro has been quickly forgotten despite his jarring performance as a junkie trying to get over the death of his best friend.

Another performance that I thought should have gotten a lot more attention, particularly from the Hollywood Foreign Press, is Steve Carell in Peter Hedge's Dan in Real Life, an amazing performance that sums up some of his better film roles. Since Carell was also ignored for his dramatic performance in Little Miss Sunshine, which was far more memorable than Arkin and Breslin, it may be a few years before we see Carell in a role that might take him through awards season.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Clooney, Day-Lewis, Depp, Gosling, Hirsch, Mortensen
HFPA: Clooney, Day-Lewis, McAvoy, Mortensen, Washington / Depp, Gosling, Hanks, Hoffman, Reilly
SAG: Clooney, Day-Lewis, Gosling, Hirsch, Mortensen

The most support across the board from critics groups has been for Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney, the frontrunners, but Viggo Mortensen and Ryan Gosling have gotten an equal amount of support, both being nominated by all three major awards groups including SAG. If for some reason Gosling beats Depp at the Golden Globes, than he's a shoe-in to take Depp's Oscar nomination as well. Since both actors have received recent nominations, there's a chance the Academy might go for someone new like French actor Matthieu Amalric or Emil Hirsch. In other words, this category only has a couple sure things, and there's likely to be some surprises even with four actors getting so much preliminary support.

The Nominations: George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp, Emile Hirsch, Viggo Mortensen (Alts: Ryan Gosling or Matthieu Amalric replacing Depp or Mortensen)

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

In past years, this has been one of the easiest categories to predict because there aren't that many viable candidates, but also because earlier nominations tend to be more in line with the way the Academy tends to go. This year should be no different with only one slot possibly up for grabs.

The Favorite(s):

As in past years, this race is really down to two actresses at this point. The one who's already well-known by the Academy and is coming into awards season having built-up plenty of advance buzz is Oscar regular Julie Christie as a beautiful woman experiencing Alzheimer's in Sarah Polley's directorial debut Away From Her, an emotional film that many people have fallen in love with from its festival screenings. Christie won her only Oscar over 40 years ago for Darling, but has been nominated twice since, the last time exactly ten years ago for Afterglow. It would be hard for the Academy to ignore her after so many critics have already considered Christie to be the best performance by an actress this year.

Her prime competition is Marion Cotillard, whose performance as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose continues to be one that wows filmgoers as the little-known French actress captures the spirit of the singer throughout her life and career. It's the type of performance that can't be ignored, because it also follows the tradition of actors winning Oscars by portraying real-life people. This was the case with Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line and Cate Blanchett as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator, plus the last three Leading Actor Oscars were won with portrayals of real people.

Expect these two actresses to split along genre categories at the Golden Globes and to make matters more confusing, they're likely to split the other awards with Cotillard taking the Broadcast Film Critics' highest honor and Christie winning with SAG (or possibly vice versa), but winning the SAG award will definitely give one of these talented actresses a clear advantage at the Oscars.

The Others:

The funny thing is that Ellen Page might be able to take advantage of the split between voters and steal the Oscar for her performance as a bratty pregnant teen in the comedy Juno, and she's going to be a Golden Globes spoiler for Cotillard in their mutual category. Page fulfills the Academy's requirement for a young ingénue to be nominated, as we've seen in past years with the likes of Evan Rachel Wood, Catalina Sandina Moreno and Keisha Castle-Hughes, though none of them came as close to winning as Page is right now.

Previous Oscar-winner Angelina Jolie's performance as Mariane Pearl in Michael Winterbottom's A Mighty Heart was considered to be the best part of the movie and with Paramount Vantage sending out thousands of DVDs to awards committees and voters, it's likely that Academy voters will agree that the performance is one worth nominating even Jolie is unlikely to win.

Back in October, it was thought that Cate Blanchett didn't have a chance of being recognized for her return as Queen Elizabeth in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, because the movie was not that well received either by critically or commercially in theatres, and yet, it's hard to deny that Ms. Blanchett is pretty amazing in the role, and the Academy probably won't be able to ignore that, especially after all three of the precursor awards groups nominated her including the Screen Actors Guild.

The Longshots:

Back in September, many people felt that British actress Keira Knightley would get her second Oscar nomination by reteaming with her Pride & Prejudice director Joe Wright for Atonement, and while it's a strong performance, it's not too much of a departure, nor is it as memorable as some of her co-stars.

Many moviegoers have grown to love Amy Adams since her Oscar nomination for the indie Junebug, and her lead role in the musical-comedy Enchanted has found her a lot more fans as it became a bonafide holiday hit. That said, as Sacha Baron Cohen learned last year, being a comedy favorite doesn't always endear you to the Academy, and even if Adams wins her category at the Globe, which will be tough going against Cotillard and Page, it's likely she'll be snubbed for another Oscar nomination.

Likewise, Helena Bonham Carter has received critical raves for her performance in hubby Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, but doesn't have enough support to get her through to the Oscars, having only received a Golden Globe nomination in the toughest category.

My Personal Pick: I was really blown away by Tang Wei, the lovely Chinese actress who made her first appearance in a feature film with Ang Lee's Lust, Caution, and she ended up in all sorts of compromising (and contortionistic) positions with veteran Tony Leung. It was a performance that normally would require a far more experienced actress but Wei proved that she's ready to follow in the footsteps of Zhang Ziyi, Michelle Yeoh and Maggie Cheung, but willing to go much further on screen.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Adams, Blanchett, Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Page
HFPA: Blanchett, Christie, Foster, Jolie, Knightley / Amy Adams, Nikki Blonsky, Bonham-Carter, Cotillard, Page
SAG: Blanchett, Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Page

There's so much consistency between the nominations so far with Blanchett, Cotillard, Christie, Jolie and Page showing up for every award across the board, so it makes sense that this will be carried through to the Oscar nominations. Christie seems like the most likely frontrunner because she's known by Academy voters unlike French actress Marion Cotillard, although the latter gets point for playing a well known singer as well as for her youth, since few older actresses win in the category. This will be a close call photo finish, but it seems like Christie could continue her run of luck to win her second Oscar.

The Nominations: Cate Blanchett, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Angelina Jolie, Ellen Page (Alts: Amy Adams, Keira Knightley)

Check back later this week for the rest of our Oscar predictions and then later this month, we'll have a short column about the potential winners.

As always, I need to give a shout-out to Tom O’Neil of The Gold Derby and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily for their invaluable year-round assistance and advice on the Oscars, and also a major shout-out to Erik Childress who has done a TON of useful research for his own Oscar Eye column.

Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas