Best Writing in an Original Screenplay:

The two writing categories tend to be the hardest to blindly pick, not only because they're nominated only by writers, who are an odd and eclectic bunch of loners, but also because there are so many possibilities in both categories. For the most part, they tend to correspond to the five Best Picture nominees with five other lucky screenplays filling in the gaps. Last year, I didn't do bad with these categories, generally going 3 for 5. (Borat ended up being considered "Adapted" while Letters From Iwo Jima was considered "Original", go figure.)

Looming over both categories this year is the ongoing writers strike, which has already crippled the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards where winner Diablo Cody pulled a no-show to accept her win. The original screenplay category is usually quirkier, to the point where you'll see a few comedies in there and maybe even an animated movie, although like in past years, there's a clear-cut favorite right out of the gate.

The Favorite(s):

Having already won the Scripter and the Critics' Choice Award, Diablo Cody's inventive screenplay for the comedy Juno is in good shape, not only to get nominated but also to win on Oscar night, which would be pretty amazing considering that it's Cody's first produced screenplay. Considering how many people truly love this movie, especially the unique dialogue of the title character, there's little question that Cody is in this one to win it.

The only potential spoiler would be Tony Gilroy's screenplay for his corporate thriller Michael Clayton, which is sure to get Gilroy his first Oscar nomination from his many admiring peers. (Gilroy is best known for writing the trilogy of blockbuster "Bourne" movies, which were a good precursor to the intelligence of his writing.) Since this category is voted on by the entire Academy, it's not as likely that it will win since the film itself is very long and quite slow and some might see it more as a showcase for the actors than the writing, which is a shame, because it's a really strong script.

The Others:

Writer Steven Zaillian is an Oscar regular, having been nominated three times before, winning a well-deserved Oscar for his screenplay for Steven Spielberg's Schindler's List and receiving his third nomination a few years back for Martin Scorsese's Gangs of New York. That gangster movie wasn't nearly as strong as Ridley Scott's American Gangster, which certainly should be commended for the way Zaillian interwove two separate storylines and dozens of characters, an impressive feat for any screenwriter. There might be some question about this being adapted (since the story was originally based on a newspaper article), but Zaillian has verged enough from that particular story, particularly with the inclusion of Russell Crowe's character, for this to be considered original, much like Gangs was.

The Long(er) Shots:

Other than those three, it's pretty much an open race with the writers of the WGA and Academy having many choices with few that might be nominated by both groups.

There's a fairly long-standing tradition of Pixar's animated movies being honored for their screenplays, going back to 1995 with their first feature film Toy Story and Brad Bird, the writer and director of their 2007 offering Ratatouille, was already honored for his screenplay for The Incredibles just a few short years ago. The script for his new movie is just as strong so there's a very good chance it will be honored in this category, being that it's also the frontrunner in the Animated Feature category.

There's always room for comedy in this category and the two comedies that really struck a chord with audiences this year were Judd Apatow's Knocked Up and the Apatow-produced Superbad, written by Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg. The latter might be seen as a bit low-brow for the Oscars, if not for the fact that the Academy nominated Borat's screenplay last year, so one shouldn't rule it out. It's more likely that the writers will nominate the latest screenplay from Apatow, a writer/producer who is well respected in the industry, having received a nomination form his fellow writers in the WGA two years ago for The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Granted, the Academy snubbed him, which makes you think that Apatow's WGA support came from those who know his television work. Two years later and with three hits under his belt, there's little question Apatow should get some kudos for at least one of his movies, and it's more likely to be Knocked Up.

There are a lot of well-written indies that need to be considered with the only thing working against them is the lack of money available to back their candidates especially in a "lesser" category like screenplay. Nancy Oliver's original script for the dramedy Lars and the Real Girl has already received a few nominations and a win from the National Board of Review, although the movie isn't as universally loved as something like Juno. Todd Haynes' unique take on Bob Dylan's life and songs in I'm Not There has a much better chance at getting noticed, since Dylan is very much a writers' artist and Haynes is already familiar to Academy writers from his Oscar-nominated screenplay for Far From Heaven. Even though many people appreciate what Haynes has done with the movie, there's so much competition and some might feel that a lot of the words were taken from Dylan's work, which would make this more suited for the Adapted category. That kind of confusion never helps in the writing categories.

The two things hurting the chances of the screenplay for Sidney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead getting nominated is that it's written by little-known playwright Kelly Masterson, but also that THINKFilm might not have the clout to get the script to enough writers to get it considered. Still it's already been nominated for a Satellite Award (which it lost to Juno) and for an Independent Spirit Award (which it will also lose to Juno.)

Even less likely at a nomination but worth considering is Stephen Knight‘s script for David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises, which is a lesser crime drama competing against the higher profile American Gangster, plus it's not as strong as the adapted screenplay for Cronenberg's last movie A History of Violence, which was nominated two years ago.

Likewise, Tamara Jenkins' second movie The Savages has a terrific script about aging and losing an elderly parent, but it's even more low-key than some of the other movies and has barely made much of a mark in theatres, so it's likely to be overlooked.

My Personal Pick: Just as the stars of Things We Lost in the Fire have been overlooked for their performances, Allan Loeb's magnificent screenplay about how two people from different walks of life come together to get over their grief after a sudden and unexpected death is truly one of the most beautifully written films this year. Sadly, the Academy's writers will merely see this as a big flop, if they even remember the movie at all.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Juno (already won), Michael Clayton, Lars and the Real Girl
HFPA: Juno (the only original screenplay nominated putting it head to head with No Country for Old Men for the win)
Satellite Awards: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Eastern Promises, Juno (already won), Lars and the Real Girl, The Lookout, Michael Clayton
WGA: Juno, Michael Clayton, The Savages, Knocked Up, Lars and the Real Girl

Aside from the WGA nominations, most of the other awards precursors tend to combine the screenplays into one category, whether they're original or adapted, which means that we have to fill in the blanks with other choices. Even the WGA's writers aren't perfect, as they tend to go 3 or 4 out of 5 in either category, so they could go with something like Todd Haynes' I'm Not There while the Academy might replace it with something more mainstream. However the other three nominations pan out, this contest is between Juno and Michael Clayton and Diablo Cody's distinctive knack for dialogue should allow her to win an Oscar for her first produced screenplay.

UPDATE: A couple surprises from the WGA--but not really: They ignored American Gangster completely and went with two smaller indies, Tamara Jenkins' The Savages and Nancy Oliver's Lars and the Real Girl, although neither seems likely to appeal to the Oscar writers, so expect those to be the 2 out of 5 missed. (If Lars and the Real Girl gets in, it's more likely to bump Ratatouille.)

The Nominations: American Gangster, Knocked Up, Juno, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille (Alts: Lars and the Real Girl, I'm Not There, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

Best Writing in an Adapted Screenplay:

In the past, this category tends to very much be in line with the Best Picture race, since so many of the most Oscar-worthy movies are adapted from novels or other sources. This year should be no different.

The Favorite(s):

Joel & Ethan Coen are no stranger to the Oscar race, having been nominated twice before for their scripts for Fargo and Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?, winning for the former, an original screenplay. After a few years in absence, the brothers are back with what many people consider their finest work, an adaptation of Cormac McCathy's No Country for Old Men, which is a sure nomination but could also be the brothers' first win in the adapted category. There are a only a few movies that have much of a chance of taking this win away from the Coens, although it's less likely for a surprise upset here when the Coens already have so much support among filmmakers and fellow writers for their body of work.

The Others:

The Academy's writers' branch should also appreciate Christopher Hampton's adaptation of Ian McEwan's complicated Atonement which captures the feel of the novel's intricate non-linear storytelling. Hampton enters the race with a previous Oscar win in the belt for writing 1989's Dangerous Liaisons, for which he was also honored by the WGA. Even so, there's a chance this will be the screenplay ignored by the Writers Guild, who tend to be just as nationalistic as the DGA, rarely nominating foreign screenwriters, where the Academy tends to be more global because it has far more Europeans among its ranks.

The same can be said for Ron Harwood's adaptation of Jean-Dominique Bauby's memoir for Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. We shouldn't forget that Harwood pulled a surprise Oscar win in 2002 for his adaptation of the Holocaust tale The Pianist after being shut out of the earlier WGA nominations, and the amount of love and support for Schnabel's film should help get Harwood honored with his third Oscar nomination and very possibly another Oscar spoiler.

P. T. Anderson is very much a writer's writer and the chances of him not being nominated for his oil epic There Will Be Blood by the Writers Guild is highly unlikely and having had two of his previous four screenplays nominated (albeit in the original screenplay category), Anderson already has the Oscar credentials and prestige to add another certificate to his wall.

Sean Penn's adaptation of Jon Kraukauer's Into the Wild is a beautifully written, almost poetic tale of a college graduate who takes a journey of self-discovery to Alaska, and Penn's writing has been pivotal in getting the film so much love and support both from the cast he pulled together and all of those who love the movie. Penn doesn't have the WGA connections of many of the others in this category, having never been nominated for previous screenplays. This puts him at a slight disadvantage for sure.

The Long(er) shots:

Honestly, any of these "longshots" could get in, but it's more likely that this category will be in line with the Best Picture nominees, so there's only space for one of these to slip by.

Actor Ben Affleck already won an Oscar in this category along with good friend Matt Damon for their adaptation of Good Will Hunting and this past year, Affleck made his directorial debut on his adapted screenplay of Dennis Lehane's novel Gone Baby Gone along with school chum Aaron Stockard. The movie has been getting more support for supporting actress Amy Ryan than anything else, but let's not forget how much support actors tend to get from the Academy when they do other things.

Aaron Sorkin is likely to have a lot of support among his fellow writers due to his years writing "The West Wing" and "Studio 60" which has garnered him no less than 10 nominations but only one win from the WGA, and his screenplay for the political film Charlie Wilson's War is considered one of the best things going for the movie. Although the WGA has never honored Sorkin's past film work, it's unlikely they won't nominate his latest, although this seems like a likely one that the Academy will drop in favor of more familiar works.

Months after its release, David Fincher's Zodiac still has a lot of critics drooling and a lot of it has to do with James Vanderbilt's adaptation of Robert Graysmith's book about the ‘70s serial killings that Fincher turned into a stark and detailed thriller unlike anything else released this year. It hasn't fared too well in awards season due to its early year release but the Writers Guild might bring it back to the fore, much like they did with Paul Greengrass' United 93 last year.

James Schamus and Hui-Ling Wang received an Oscar nomination for their adaptation of the Chinese novel that became Ang Lee's biggest hit Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, also one of the highest grossing Chinese language films ever released in the United States. Their follow-up Lust, Caution hasn't been received nearly as well.

My Personal Pick: What is it going to take to get David Benioff some respect, especially when his work adapting Khaled Hosseini's bestselling novel The Kite Runner has barely registered among awards groups so far? Benioff has never been nominated for any of his previous work, including adapting his own novel The 25th Hour for Spike Lee, and The Kite Runner is a classic example of how a book should be adapted to create a movie that perfectly captures the tone and emotion of the original author's writing. The fact that his writing then had to be translated into Dari—a language that Benioff doesn't speak—makes it even more an amazing achievement.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: No Country for Old Men, Into the Wild, Charlie Wilson's War
HFPA: Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country for Old Men
WGA: No Country for Old Men, There WIll be Blood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, Zodiac

The WGA nominations should make things clearly although there's obvious support for No Country and Aaron Sorkin's screenplay from critics and foreign journalists, and split support for Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and Atonement. The WGA nominations should consist of at least three of these movies with P.T. Anderson's There Will Be Blood being the fourth, which leaves one more slot that will have to be fought over, and then the Oscar nominations will probably only duplicate three of those choices. Regardless, the Coens should win their second Oscar and their first in the adapted category unless Ron Harwood pulls another ass-kickin' surprise win.

UPDATE: Looks like the Writers Guild snubbed Atonement which isn't that big a surprise except that it means it's been ignored by all three Guilds, which is not a good sign for its Oscar chances. Still, we were four for five in our picks, and Zodiac seems to be the most likely candidate for being bumped from the Oscars.

The Nominations: Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood (Alts: Charlie Wilson's War, Gone Baby Gone)

Best Achievement in Direction:

The best precursor in this Oscar category obviously are the Directors Guild (DGA) nominations, which conveniently enough were announced earlier this week. Not only do the DGAs nominations often have direct correlations with the Oscar nominations for film directing, but also for Best Picture itself, since the two categories align so often. The announcement of the DGA nominations screwed up the chances for many presumed frontrunners, but now we know who they've picked, we stand a better chance at knowing more about two key Oscar categories. In recent years, the DGA has the best track record, usually going 4 for 5 with the Academy's choice for directors and about the same against Best Picture. Most of the time when they miss one, it's because the Academy goes for a foreign director, since the DGA seems to be far more nationalistic in terms of nominating American filmmakers. Ironically, last year, the DGA only went with three of the same directors as the Academy, missing Paul Greengrass (a Brit whose United 93 wasn't nominated for Best Picture) and Clint Eastwood, who the DGA may have felt had been honored enough. Just like last year though, there's already a clear-cut favorite to win both here and at the Oscars, so the rest of the nominations might be moot.

The Favorite(s):

Joel & Ethan Coen have made dozens of movies together, usually with Joel taking sole directing credit, but their latest movie, No Country for Old Men, is being considered by many to be one of their finest movies in over a decade, possibly since Fargo in 1996, which was the last time Joel was nominated for an Oscar--he didn't win. By coincidence, Joel is the only director who received his second DGA nomination this year, as the other five directors, including his brother and co-director Ethan, are receiving their first nominations from their fellow directors. The Coens have already won many critics' awards including the Critics Choice Award, and one can safely assume that the DGA will go with what they know and honor the Coens with their first award and the Academy should follow suit.

The Others:

Sean Penn has one advantage over some of the others at getting into the Oscars with his second feature film Into the Wild, because actors who direct have a long history of getting into the game with the likes of Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner, George Clooney and multiple nominee Clint Eastwood showing that there are enough actor/directors in the Academy to help get them nominated. (Presumably, that select group can submit nominations in both the acting and directing categories, so why not nominate their fellow actors for their directorial coups?) Penn has already received a nomination from the Broadcast Film Critics, as well as one from the DGA, which puts him in really good shape to be the token actor/director of the year. (Not to mention that the movie has a good chance of being nominated for Penn's screenplay as well.)

The Academy's wildcard is clearly Julian Schnabel who has been receiving a lot of love for his third film The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, a French language film about the full-body paralysis of Elle editor Jean-Dominique Bauby, and although Schnabel is a New Yorker, it's not unheard of for the Academy to honor the directors of great foreign language films with the likes of Fernando Meirelles, Pedro Almodovar and Roberto Benigni being nominated. At least Schnabel already has a DGA nomination, which is a good sign that the Academy will follow suit.

Just as likely to get nominated is P.T. Anderson, who has been getting critical raves for his fifth movie There Will Be Blood, and has also been nominated by the DGA. The epic drama set in the early 20th Century is very much a directors' movie, more than Anderson's previous films, so there's a good chance he'll finally be honored in this category after receiving two previous Oscar nominations for his writing. If the Academy does include Anderson in this category than There Will Be Blood is almost a lock for a Best Picture nomination as well.

Coming into awards season with only his second movie, Joe Wright wasn't nominated for his work on the British drama Atonement by the Directors Guild who tend to favor American filmmakers, but the film has enough amazing moments that it would be very hard for the Academy to ignore him as well. He'll definitely be vying for the one remaining spot against first-time director Tony Gilroy, who received the fifth DGA nomination and is guaranteed a nomination for the screenplay for his corporate thriller Michael Clayton, but might have a hard time convincing the more discerning directors in the Academy that the work in his smaller movie is up to the level of filmmaking of some of the others that are likely to get nominated.

The Longshots:

Other than the Coens, the only other potential nominee with any sort of back history in this category is filmmaker Ridley Scott, who has been nominated three times before. The millions of people who saw his crime drama American Gangster will probably be reminded favorably of Martin Scorsese's The Departed although the film might be seen as a lesser work to some of Scott's previous movies.

Surprisingly, Tim Burton has never been nominated either for a DGA or for an Oscar as a director EVER, and for a few moments, people thought that Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street would be the year that Burton got nominated by both. While Burton received accolades from some of the preliminary awards groups, he was shut-out by the DGA once again, and this category may already be too crowded with the directors of the potential Best Picture candidates.

My Personal Pick(s): Sidney Lumet turned 83 last year and though he's been nominated and won Oscars for his past work, I was really impressed with his new movie Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, which proves that the director of classics like Dog Day Afternoon and Network has still got it as he pulled together an amazing cast to tell a simple story of a jewelry robbery gone wrong in a very unique multiple perspective non-linear way.

Likewise, James Mangold is a director whose long been overlooked and his remake of the Western 3:10 to Yuma simply blew me away. I didn't think it was nearly as artsy as some of the other Westerns, but in terms of reviving the genre, remaining traditional but updating it, Mangold, his writers and the cast did an amazing job and it's pretty incredible that this project was ever in turnaround at another studio.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: Burton, Coens (already won), Sidney Lumet, Penn, Schnabel, Wright
HFPA: Burton, Coens, Schnabel, Scott, Wright
DGA: P. T. Anderson, Coens, Tony Gilroy, Sean Penn, Julian Schnabel

Seems to be fairly straight-ahead with the exception of Burton, Lumet, Scott and Wright being omitted from the DGA nominations, which are so much more key than anything else. The Coens and Schnabel are the only constant, but I'd still expect that if any of those four non-DGA candidates end up with an Oscar nomination, it will be Wright, who was nominated by both previous awards groups. However the nominations pan out, the Coen Brothers will finally win a much-deserved Oscar for No Country. No question.

The Nominations: P.T. Anderson, Joel & Ethan Coen, Sean Penn, Julian Schnabel, Joe Wright (Alts: Ridley Scott, Tony Gilroy)

Best Achievement in a Motion Picture:

There are a couple things to keep in mind in this category, the first being the Academy's strange system of counting ballots, which usually means that only the first or second choices on a ballot have a chance at getting nominated, so you have to go with the movies that have the most overall appeal to a wide range of industry professionals. It's also good to remember that actors make up the largest portion of the Academy members, so movies with large, strong casts tend to get honored here rather than in individual acting categories. One might assume that this category always corresponds with SAG's Ensemble category, except that they don't have that good a track record in terms of going 1 for 1 with Oscar Best Picture nominations—they're usually 2 or 3 out of 5 at best.

In the past few years, the directing nominations and best picture nominations have been very close, usually 4 out of 5 at worst, and it's almost a requisite that a movie gets at least a directing and writing nomination if it wants to stand a chance at being considered Best Picture. For the most part, with ten potential writing nominations split between original and adapted screenplays, you have to assume that the five Best Picture candidates will all get nominated for their screenplays, and with the actors making up the largest part, you have to assume there'll be at least one acting nomination for any Best Picture nominee.

Certainly, there have been exceptions, such as The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, which received a token nomination despite not having any nominations in the acting, direction or writing categories, though the following year, the finale of the trilogy won just about everything, despite not being nominated for any single acting performance.

The Favorite(s):

The only movie that's guaranteed an Oscar nomination at this point and because of this, is likely to win, is the latest from Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men, which is close to becoming their highest grossing movie to date, passing Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?, their last movie to be deemed Oscar-worthy, though only for its script. It was over ten years ago that the Coens' seventh movie Fargo was nominated for seven Oscars including Best Picture, and No Country for Old Men should get at least that many. So far, it looks like No Country will be a shoe-in for writing, directing and a supporting actor nod (vs. lead), which is EXACTLY the line-up of two previous Oscar Best Picture winners, The Departed and Crash, which were nominated in the same categories. Since the Coens seem fairly certain to win in the Adapted Screenplay category and are the frontrunners for both the other categories, not to mention a very good chance of cinematographer Roger Deakins receiving his first Oscar after eight previous nominations, one would have to be loopy to bet against this movie.

The Others:

Another movie that has generally been liked or loved by a lot of people is Sean Penn's Into the Wild, which has a lot going for it, one of them being its actor-director Sean Penn, but also the fact that SAG nominated it for its ensemble cast as well as for three individual performances: Emil Hirsch, Catherine Keener and the veteran Hal Holbrook—the only movie to get so many SAG nominations. It was completely snubbed by the Hollywood Foreign Press, but that's not too surprising, because the Golden Globes have completely neglected plenty of Oscar Best Pictures in the past, most notably Crash in 2006. While critics might be somewhat mixed on the movie, many actors when asked have noted this as their favorite movie of the year and having one of their own at the helm probably doesn't hurt either.

Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has been fluttering under the radar for months although just about everyone who has seen it since its debut at the Cannes Film Festival has raved about it. It's already won a number of critics awards, though mostly in the foreign language category, and it's been on enough Top 10 lists for the year to rank in the Top 5 overall movies of the year. One of the telling signs of the movie's potential Best Picture status is the way that the movie has won previous awards' foreign language categories, including the Critics Choice Awards, and it's likely to win at the Golden Globes for the same thing. Because it is a foreign language film without a country behind it, much like some of Pedro Almodovar's past movies, it means that Academy members who love the movie will have to nominate it in other categories to make sure it gets its due respect. For instance, The Diving Bell received nominations for directing and writing from the Hollywood Foreign Press, which is a very good sign of general support for the movie. As we saw with Clint Eastwood's Japanese war drama Letters From Iwo Jima last year, being strong enough to get a directing nomination from the HFPA for a foreign language film means that it might be one of those movies like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon that crosses over into the Best Picture race. There's a good chance that Julian Schnabel's third film will be the only foreign language film in the Best Picture race.

Those are the three favorites and that last slot will go to one of three movies, all of which should get nominated either for their writing or direction or both, and at least two of them should get acting nominations as well.

The big surprise in this year's Oscar race might end up being the comedy Juno, which has been universally loved across the board even if one wouldn't immediately think of it as Oscar fodder. It's very much this year's Sideways or Little Miss Sunshine, and maybe it's no surprise that its being released by Fox Searchlight, the same studio responsible for the campaigns that got those other movies into the running. The fact that this wasn't nominated by SAG for its ensemble cast, which should have been a given, is rather daunting for a quirky comedy like this, because while few thought Little Miss Sunshine would get into the Best Picture race, being nominated and winning SAG's ensemble category certainly helped it, while Juno only received one SAG nomination for actress Ellen Page. The movie probably won't get an Oscar nomination for second generation director Jason Reitman, if the DGA nominations are anything to go by, but it has almost guaranteed Oscar nominations for Ellen Page and for Diablo Cody's screenplay (thought to be the frontrunner in the original writing category). The film is also doing very well in theatres, having just gone wide and having already grossed over $50 million, putting it ahead of 3:10 to Yuma as a moneymaker, something the Producers Guild should appreciate. Juno is considered the frontrunner at the Golden Globes for Comedy/Musical, which might be a positive if not for the fact that the last two winners in that category (Dreamgirls, Walk the Line) were snubbed by the Academy for Best Picture.

Coming into the Oscar race as late as one possibly could, P.T. Anderson's There Will Be Blood has gotten almost as much critical support as No Country for Old Men, and it caters to the same male audience with its genre and setting. It's pretty obvious that this brilliantly directed film will be a favorite among Academy directors, writers and tech crews, probably enough to be considered their Best Picture. Even the actors' branch, who will probably be behind Daniel Day-Lewis winning his second Oscar might have problems with the film's dark tone and erratic ending. The movie really needs more support from the Academy's largest branch if it wants to get into this tight race, or else this will be the one movie that gets individual nominations for acting, direction and writing without getting a Best Picture nomination.

Tony Gilroy's directorial debut Michael Clayton is likely to get a number of nominations for Gilroy's writing and the three great performances, but is it a movie that's as universally loved as much as some critics seem to think? The movie will get sure support in two key categories (acting and writing) but can a first-time director like Gilroy get into the Oscar race even with a DGA nomination under his belt? Michael Clayton received three individual nominations from the Screen Actors Guild rather than getting an Ensemble Cast nomination, but that doesn't really mean anything either, but it would seem that if put up against There Will Be Blood, this would be the safer pic, although going with Anderson's movie will allow the Academy to prove that they aren't out of touch and can do edgy when need be.

The Longshots:

Way back in September, it was thought that Atonement was a shoe-in for a Best Picture nomination because it seemed exactly like the kind of movie that the Academy loves, which is a sure sign of a movie being jinxed to the point of not being nominated for anything. The movie based on Ian McEwan's novel hasn't gotten nearly as much love from critics or from SAG—in fact, it was snubbed in all categories including supporting actress—although many people still feel it offers all the elements that the Academy loves. The lack of a DGA nomination for director Joe Wright, despite other equally inexperienced film directors getting nominated, is mildly off-putting but there's a chance that the movie will appeal to older Academy voters looking for classic storytelling.

Back in October, I didn't think that Ridley Scott's American Gangster stood a chance at getting a Best Picture nomination but with support from the Screen Actors Guild and chances of a Producers Guild nomination—it has grossed more money than any other potential Oscar candidate—there's a slight chance, it could take the fifth slot. Ridley Scott didn't get a nomination from the directors' guild and the chances of any acting nominations is dwindling despite SAG nominations for the cast, Washington and actress Ruby Dee.

At this point, you kind of have to feel bad for Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd, which looked to be the movie that finally got Burton the respect he deserves, and yet, its chances are slipping further and further away with snubs from both the Screen Actors and Directors guilds. While it was nominated for a Golden Globe in the Comedy/Musical category, there's a likely chance that it will lose to Juno, and since it probably won't be nominated by the WGA for its screenplay, this one is pretty much dead in the Best Picture race.

My Personal Pick (s): Every year, I pick my favorite movie that deserves to be nominated or win, which almost guarantees that they won't even get nominated, and the only time I've been surprised was when I picked Crash as my personal pick to never get nominated and it ended up winning it all with a surprise upset for Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain. My pick this year is another Lionsgate movie, James Mangold's remake of the Western 3:10 to Yuma, which was just a stunning film across the board, and kudos to the Screen Actors Guild for nomination the cast for their top award, although I have a feeling that the Academy just might not enjoy this as much as some of the other artier Westerns released this year.

The Story So Far:

BFCA: American Gangster, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, Juno, The Kite Runner, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men (already won), Sweeney Todd, There Will Be Blood
HFPA: American Gangster, Atonement, Eastern Promises, The Great Debaters, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood / Across the Universe, Charlie Wilson's War, Hairspray, Juno, Sweeney Todd
SAG Ensemble: 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Hairspray, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men
PGA Nominations: To Be Announced January 14

Boy, that's a lot of movies between the three groups who've announced their nominations, but the best precursor for Oscar Best Picture tends to be a combination of SAG, DGA and PGA nominations since they're made up of a reasonable percentage of the industry professionals within the Academy. Essentially, every single member of the Academy submits their choices for Best Picture, including all of the technical departments, so one has to look at movies that will likely get nominations for cinematography, editing, etc, as well as acting, directing and writing. There are a lot of clear favorites this year including Juno and Into the Wild, but the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men is the frontrunner to take it all with the only potential surprises being a Diving Bell or Juno upset, although at this point, it seems unlikely.

UPDATE: With Atonement having been snubbed by its third guild in a row by being ignored by the WGA, it's certainly looking like the industry does not like being told what they should honor. That and Sweeney Todd seem to have been omitted out of spite more than anything else, and its chances of a Best Picture nomination are looking less likely now than they were earlier. So that leaves Michael Clayton and Juno and the former seems to have gotten more nominations including SAG and DGA so we probably have to go with that.

The Nominations: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood (Alts: Atonement, Juno)

Well, that's it for now. We might do a column looking at the nominations in some of the other categories after they've been announced or the potential winners, but otherwise, let us know what you think of our picks, and we'll see you on Oscar night!

As always, I need to give a shout-out to Tom O'Neil of The Gold Derby and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily for their invaluable year-round assistance and advice on the Oscars, and also a major shout-out to Erik Childress who has done a TON of useful research for his own Oscar Eye column.