Vying for a position in the bottom half of the Top 10 is the new Hilary Swank romantic comedy P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) based on a popular book but with bad commercials and likely even worse reviews, which points to a terrible first weekend but with hopes of finding its intended audience of women over the holiday week when they'll be off work.

This Week's Predictions -

1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) - $48.6 million N/A

2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) - $33.8 million -56%

3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) - $25.2 million -44%

4. Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks) - $13.3 million N/A

5. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) - $11.3 million N/A

6. Walk Hard (Sony) - $9.5 million N/A

7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) - $7.2 million N/A

8. The Golden Compass (New Line) - $4.2 million -53%

9. Enchanted (Walt Disney) - $3.3 million -41%

10. Atonement (Focus) - $2.0 million +10%

Last year, the weekend before Christmas received an early present with Ben Stiller's family comedy Night at the Museum, which topped the box office with just $30 million before going on to make nearly $250 million when all was said and done. Will Smith's The Pursuit of Happyness took second place with $14 million followed by Sylvester Stallone in Rocky Balboa (MGM) and Matt Damon in The Good Shepherd, grossing $12 and $10 million respectively. Opening at #7, the sports drama We Are Marshall failed to find an audience with a weak $6.1 million opening and hopes of picking up more business over the weekend. The Top 10 grossed $103 million, which might be achieved by the Top 3 movies alone this weekend, but then the other movies should help bring that amount even higher.

National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Walt Disney)
Starring Nicolas Cage, Jon Voight, Harvey Keitel, Ed Harris, Diane Kruger, Justin Bartha, Bruce Greenwood, Helen Mirren
Directed by Jon Turteltaub (National Treasure, The Kid); Written by Cormac and Marianne Wibberley (National Treasure, The Shaggy Dog, Bad Boys II, upcoming G-Force, Fantastic Voyage), Ted Elliot and Terry Rossio (The Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, The Legend of Zorro)
Genre: Action, Adventure
Rated PG
Plot Summary: While exploring the murder of Abraham Lincoln via John Wilkes Booth's diary, historian adventurer Benjamin Gates (Nicolas Cage) discovers that his great-grandfather may have been involved with the murder, and the search sends Ben and his partners in crime Abigail and Riley (Diane Kruger, Justin Bartha) to Buckingham Palace and the White House to discover the secrets of the book in order to clear Ben's family name.

Back in 2003, Jerry Bruckheimer saved Disney's year by turning an ancient amusement park into one of the studio's biggest non-animated hits, and the resulting Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl grossed over $300 million. The following year, Bruckheimer saved their bacon again when he put together his fourth action movie based around actor Nicolas Cage, and when the resulting National Treasure grossed $35 million its opening weekend, it took Cage's dissuaders by surprise, because it was Cage's biggest movie after a series of flops. Over the course of the holidays, it would gross $173 million in the U.S. and double that amount worldwide to become the biggest blockbuster hit of Cage's career as an action star.

Now, Bruckheimer has convinced Cage to appear in the first sequel of his career, as hard as it is to believe, and while there were many people who loved the first movie and have been waiting impatiently for a sequel, it comes out at the end of a year full of disappointing sequels that may find that movie lovers are jaded and wary of another one. On top of that, many people compared the first movie to Dan Brown's popular novel The Da Vinci Code only without the religious stuff, but since then, an actual movie based on Brown's novel starring Tom Hanks was released, and while that did huge business, it was somewhat disappointing to those who hoped for more action ala National Treasure. Since the sequel will lack the novelty that made the original such a breath of fresh air at the end of 2004, it might find itself challenged more for its business, even though it's still likely to be another huge hit.

We've covered Cage's career as both an action star and as a serious dramatic actor at length in the Weekend Warrior, but the important key points here are his trio of action hits in '96 and '97 (The Rock, Con Air and Face/Off), the first National Treasure and Cage's other 2007 hit, starring as Ghost Rider, which surpassed National Treasure's opening with $45.4 million over Presidents' Day. Despite a few more flops in between (the remake of The Wicker Man was a classic), Cage still seems to earn a great deal of respect from movie fans, maybe because he never really branches too far away from what people like about him. The question this weekend is how Cage's star power can stack up against that of Will Smith, Johnny Depp, Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and of course, John C. Reilly, because all of them have movies in the marketplace that could potentially be a draw for Cage's older and younger fans. The thing about "star power" is that in actuality, it's all about the premise, which is why someone like Will Smith can have a $77 million opening one weekend and have a movie that barely opens with $25 million another. That's the fun of the unpredictability of the box office (and moviegoers, for that matter), although having Cage in a tried and tested role like Benjamin Gates certainly stands a stronger chance of getting people back into theatres than the more daring decisions made by Depp and Hanks this week.

Of course, director Jon Turteltaub and the rest of the cast from the first movie is back including Jon Voight, Diane Kruger, Justin Bartha and Harvey Keitel who all have been doing various things since the last movie. (I'm guessing Bratz wasn't a exactly high point for Voight.) For the sequel they're joined by a number of prestigious guest stars including the Oscar-winning actress Helen Mirren fresh off her win for last year's The Queen, the always great Ed Harris and Bruce Greenwood, who appeared in Ben Affleck's Gone Baby Gone and Todd Haynes' Dylan biopic I'm Not There respectively, both highly regarded films. Certainly Mirren and Harris will add a bit more quality cred among older moviegoers that might not normally go see this young person's action, but the historical aspects of the film's premise should also continue to be a draw.

It's hard to find reasonable comparisons for Book of Secrets firstly because Cage has never done a sequel, but because the closest comparison might be the last Disney/Bruckheimer follow-up sequel, which was 2006's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which opened in the summer. National Treasure: Book of Secrets is opening on a later weekend than the original, and it's opening on the weekend before Christmas, a hard time to open a movie, even though New Line's Lord of the Rings staked out the weekend for three consecutive years, doing more business with each successive film. Ben Stiller's Meet the Fockers opened over the weekend two years ago but it also had the advantage of having Christmas land on the Saturday, whereas in this case, the holiday is on the following Tuesday. Comparisons can also be made to sequels like Shanghai Knights and the Rush Hour sequels (all starring Jackie Chan) which took the concept from the original movie and moved them to a new locale, whether it be England or France, which is similar to the global approach being taken with Book of Secrets.

Not surprisingly, some people are already burnt out on sequels this year, and this one seems especially questionable because it really seems like more of the same, plus it's opening in the weekend after two huge hits that crossed many demographic thresholds. While those will likely make way for Benjamin Gates' return, one has to wonder how much business the box office can bring in on the weekend before Christmas, where so many people will be traveling or doing last minute shopping, something that could attribute for why Stiller's Night at the Museum had a smaller opening last year but then exploded as soon as Christmas hit. Thanks to its PG rating, which presumably helped the first movie do a lot of business over the holidays, Book of Secrets should be a great choice for the entire family, young and old, which will certainly help it to explode in the week between Christmas and New Year's where families will be looking for movies to see together, although the true fans will probably rush out to see it before heading home for the holidays. There's little doubt that Book of Secrets will match or more likely surpass the total gross of the first movie, and the real question will be how much of that business will be made in its opening weekend, especially considering its pre-holiday placement.

Why I Should See It: The first National Treasure was pretty damn awesome… do you really need to be so cynical that the sequel might not be at least as good or better?
Why Not: Based on the other sequels this year, the answer to that question has to be a resounding "YES!"
Projections: $47 to 50 million opening weekend and close to $240 million total, possibly more.

COMPARISONS

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks)
Starring Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Timothy Spall, Jamie Campbell Bower, Jayne Wisener, Sacha Baron Cohen
Directed by Tim Burton (Sleepy Hollow, Planet of the Apes, Edward Scissorhands, Batman, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Big Fish) Written by John Logan (The Aviator, The Last Samurai, Gladiator, Any Given Sunday)
Genre: Musical, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "Never Forget. Never Forgive."
Plot Summary: Exiled from London by a local judge (Alan Rickman) who wanted the barber's wife for his own, the barber Benjamin Barker (Johnny Depp) returns home 15 years later as the newly named Sweeney Todd (Sweeney Todd), he and his partner in crime, the baker Mrs. Lovett (Helena Bonham Carter), plot their bloody revenge against the judge.

Review

When you've hit the level of success and popularity as Tim Burton and Johnny Depp and you've made five movies together, how do you follow up movies based on literary classics like Sleepy Hollow and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, as well as original films that were loved by Goths the world over? Why you tackle Broadway musicals, of course, and what could be better for the duo who've delighted fans of doom and gloom and black clothes than Stephen Sondheim's classic tale of deceit and revenge which involves murder and cannibalism in jolly old England? In some ways, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street makes far more sense than Joel Schumacher's decision to tackle Andrew Lloyd Webber's Phantom of the Opera, an equally dark musical, a few years ago, and it seems like a better fit than some of the other movie musicals that have popped up since Robert Marshall's big-screen version of Chicago grossed $170 million, won a bunch of Oscars and started the ball rolling on the whole movie musical trend. (Actually, some might claim Baz Lurman's Moulin Rouge! helped, as it was very well received despite being an original musical, not one swiped from Broadway.)

While the tale of Sweeney Todd can be traced back to 19th Century England, there even being a silent film in 1936 based on the myth behind the character, the barber-slash-serial-killer got the most attention with the original production of Stephen Sondheim's musical which hit Broadway in 1979 with Len Cariou and Angela Lansbury. The production won eight out of its nine Tony nominations (the lighting wasn't so hot apparently), and 9 out of 10 Drama Desk awards, but more importantly, it was aired on PBS, which is where even more people would see it on taped copies for years to come, as it would become a favorite among Community Theatres across the country. And after winning a Tony, Lansbury was nominated for an Emmy for her performance as Mrs. Lovett in the televised version. While it's considered a classic among Broadway buffs and it's been revived many times, this will be the first time that it's been produced as a big budget movie musical, let alone by such a prestigious director as Burton, who hopes to gain another chance at respectability and the awards cred expected to be piled on his movie by industry groups who tend to love musicals.

In his lengthy career, Johnny Depp has never been as popular as he is right now, following the conclusion of Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, which quickly raised Depp from respected B-list actor to full-on box office star thanks to the BILLION dollars the three movies have grossed in the U.S. alone. Playing Sweeney Todd will be another chance for Depp to show his range as he sings and cuts throats, but it's not too far removed from his previous roles that it might put off fans of earlier characters like Edward Scissorhands or Ichabod Crane. When Depp is in the right role, his loving female and male fans will rush out to see it and Sweeney Todd is suitably dark and gothy to be considered a great match. The fact that Depp is already getting a lot of awards buzz from the performance will just give the movie that much more credibility among older audiences already familiar with the musical. While Depp has been honored twice before by the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, he's yet to win an Oscar for one of his performances, so this might be another chance for him to join so many actors before him.

It's not too big a surprise that Burton has also enlisted his wife Helena Bonham Carter for her fourth or fifth appearance in one of his films dating back to Planet of the Apes, but this time giving her a much bigger role than her one in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory as Mrs. Lovett, the corrupt baker who eggs Sweeney onto his murderous streak. Burton rounded the cast out with two alum from the Harry Potter films, Alan Rickman and Tim Spall, playing the film's main two baddies, as well as the added bonus of Sacha Baron Cohen as a competitive Italian barber, although his role seems to be getting played down, which is somewhat surprising because his involvement might help the movie find the young male audience that would thrive at the amount of blood and gore that Burton has put in the film.

While the presence of Depp and the musical genre will make this the first choice for many older teen girls and women, it's going to have to find other things to interest the 20 to 40 something males who've admired Burton's past work like Batman and Sleepy Hollow. Wisely, some of the commercials and trailers have played down the musical numbers, because one has to wonder whether Sondheim's older skewing music might appeal to Depp's younger skewing audience. While Sondheim's musical was always dark, Burton has enhanced the horror aspects of the film, giving the film's gory premise a suitable amount of blood splatter whenever Todd kills his victims, and aspect of the film that might put off some older moviegoers who might be interested in any movie based on a popular musical, but wouldn't necessarily rush out to see a gory movie like Saw, although one has to expect a certain amount of blood knowing the premise.

Essentially, there's a fairly wide array of audiences that will be interested in the movie, whether for the music or Burton's distinctive visuals, and yet, DreamWorks and distributor Paramount have decided to give Burton's film a more moderate release into just 1,000 theatres in hopes that those theatres will be packed in the weekend before Christmas--and possibly because it will be easier to get screens come January especially if the movie gets nominated for more awards as it did with the Golden Globes last week. This was a similar approach the studio took with Dreamgirls last year, although things sort of fell apart when it wasn't nominated for nearly as many awards as expected. Either way, the popularity of Burton and Depp both alone and together--and not just in the big cities or Broadway circles--should be the film's biggest draw, creating many sell-outs in the limited areas where the film plays this weekend, allowing for a stronger opening than the moderate theatre count usually would imply. After that, one can expect it to do a lot of business over the holiday week and then expand even wider in January, building on word-of-mouth and presumably the awards nominations the movie will start garnering. Regardless, Sweeney Todd can rely on the fact that Burton and Depp will bring them in and keep the movie playing well as it slowly expands over the next month, so it should have the most significant legs of any of the new movies opening this week.

Why I Should See It: Burton and Depp are back together for another movie that will appeal to Goths and Broadway buffs alike.
Why Not: Man, I'd love to be a fly on the wall for that theatre-going experience. One can only imagine that the two camps will not exactly be trading fashion tips.
Projections: $12 to 14 million opening weekend and $85 to 95 million total.

COMPARISONS

Charlie Wilson's War (Universal)
Starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, Ned Beatty
Directed by Mike Nichols (Closer, Primary Colors, The Birdcage, "Angels in America", Working Girl, The Graduate, Postcards from the Edge); Written by Aaron Sorkin (Creator of "The West Wing" and "Studio 60", The American President, Malice, A Few Good Men)
Genre: Drama, War
Rated R
Tagline: "A stiff drink. A little mascara. A lot of nerve. Who said they couldn't bring down the Soviet empire?"
Plot Summary: Texas congressman Charlie Wilson (Tom Hanks) is an alcoholic womanizer who is recruited by a wealthy philanthropist woman (Julia Roberts) to try to take action against the Soviets after they invade Afghanistan in 1979. Along with a screw-up CIA agent (Phillip Seymour Hoffman), they try to find a way to get funds for the effort.

It wouldn't be too surprising for a movie starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, two of the world's biggest box office stars, to coast along based on that alone, but oddly, just much attention for Charlie Wilson's War is being paid to its screenwriter Aaron Sorkin. It's something that rarely happens, but when you have a writer who's been hailed by so many critics and who has had so much success with an Emmy award-winning show like "The West Wing," you can understand why the writing might be just as big a sell for the movie as its two bankable stars. Sorkin is no stranger to politics, having written The American President before developing those ideas into the drama that would win four consecutive Emmys, though Sorkin never received an Emmy for his writing and his next show "Studio 60" was unceremoniously cancelled after just one season. Three of Sorkin's movie scripts have been nominated for Golden Globes, including his script for "Charlie Wilson's War", which is based on the best-selling non-fiction novel by late CBS News journalist George Crile. The movie will certainly be viewed with a lot of interest by those wondering what Sorkin will do next, and it couldn't come at a better time with there being such a political climate in the world (actually a double-edged sword for the movie's success), and Sorkin has already received a lot of critical and commercial praise for his work in that world.

Sorkin has a great partner-in-crime for this adaptation in director Mike Nichols, whose own experience with political movies dates back to 1998's Primary Colors starring John Travolta, which was also based on a popular semi-non-fiction novel. Even more important, Nichols has assembled an amazing cast led by Tom Hanks in a role that's not too far a cry from past roles like his Oscar-winning turn in Robert Zemeckis' Forrest Gump. Hanks is unquestionably one of the top box office stars of the last twenty years, although he's hit a few stumbling blocks in recent years including the Coen Brothers' remake of The Ladykillers and Steven Spielberg's The Terminal (the duo's third pairing), the first movies starring Hanks since his directorial debut That Thing You Do! that did not gross over $100 million. He rebounded by reteaming with Zemeckis for the performance-capture animated film The Polar Express and by taking on the prestigious role of Dr. Robert Langdon in the hit movie based on Dan Brown's The Da Vinci Code, both blockbusters on a par with Hanks' biggest movies.

This may be Hanks' first experience working with Nichols, but it is Julia Roberts' second time after starring in his adaptation of Patrick Marber's stageplay Closer, a movie which got a number of Oscar nominations for her co-stars Natalie Portman and Clive Owen. While Roberts was once the definition of Hollywood superstar, being the actress who guaranteed success if you involved her in your project, a highly publicized motherhood has slowed her down and besides appearing in Steven Soderbergh's first two "Danny Ocean" movies and Mike Newell's period drama Mona Lisa Smile, she hasn't done much. Roberts has experience playing a real person, after starring in Steven Soderbergh's Erin Brockovich which got Roberts her first Oscar nomination and win, but Mona Lisa Smile, which opened in the same weekend a few years ago, saw less than spectacular results. While we could go back a decade or so to see Roberts at the height of her fame, she plays more of a supporting role in this movie and it's not exactly the kind of movie that would appeal to fans of her romantic comedies. Still, you have to be impressed with the way she and Hanks are posed in the movie posters to mimic the image from her famous early movie Pretty Woman.

Almost as much attention is being paid to the character played by Philip Seymour Hoffman, a cynical CIA agent who worked with Charlie Wilson to make a difference in Afghanistan, and this is another great year for the actor who won his first Oscar a few years back for his leading role in Capote. He's also been nominated for a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice for his performance and is rumored to get his second Oscar nomination, this time in the supporting category. The movie also stars girl of the moment Amy Adams—another Oscar and Golden Globe nominee and contender—as Charlie Wilson's assistant, her second appearance in a Hanks movie after 2003's Catch Me If You Can.

The biggest problem facing the movie is the same reason why it might be of interest, and that's because it's clearly a political movie about Afghanistan in a year where the Middle East has been the subject matter of many movies that undelivered at the box office from Peter Berg's The Kingdom to Rendition and most recently, mega-stars Tom Cruise, Robert Redford and Meryl Streep teamed for Lions for Lambs, a poorly-received political drama also about Afghanistan, which was trashed by critics and found very little business in theatres before quickly disappearing.

Wisely, the marketing for the film is playing down the Middle East plotline and any similarities by taking a more comedic route and playing up the film's flamboyant characters and situations involved in putting a stop to the very serious Soviet invasion. Unlike the other Middle East movies, Charlie Wilson's War is likely to be helped by the multiple Golden Globe nominations it acquired last week including an acting nomination for Hanks, supporting for Philip Seymour Hoffman and Julia Roberts, and for the screenplay by Sorkin. Even so, the movie doesn't seem like something that people will feel the need to rush out to see, so expect a light opening weekend as its business is spread out over the following week between Christmas and New Year's where awards-worthy movies like this can bring in a lot of business based on its cast alone.

Why I Should See It: Aaron Sorkin has already proven himself to be a sharp political writer with "The West Wing" and it'll be interesting to see him deal with a real-world politician and real story, especially having such a great cast delivering his lines.
Why Not: If you really want to see a movie about Afghanistan, go see "The Kite Runner" which at least tells the story from the point of view of the natives.
Projections: $10 to 11 million opening weekend and $50 million total. (More if it starts to get more serious nominations or even wins some of the awards.)

COMPARISONS

Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony)
Starring John C. Reilly, Jenna Fischer, Tim Meadows, Kristen Wiig, Chris Parnell and a cast of dozens
Directed by Jake Kasdan (The TV Set); Written by Judd Apatow (The 40 Year Old Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad)
Genre: Comedy, Music
Rated R
Tagline: "Life made him tough. Love made him strong. Music made him hard."
Plot Summary: The story of legendary rocker Dewey Cox (John C. Reilly) is told from his early days trying to get his father to love him after the tragic death of his brother to his early days as a struggling musician to world-wide fame and success.

Mini-Review: The genius of Jake Kasdan's fourth and best film lies in the fact that it starts out as a very faithful spoof of "Walk the Line" but then slowly evolves into something much cooler, finding ways to satirize not only the better known musical biopics, but also the musical stylings of some of the greats throughout the years like Dylan, the Beatles and Brian Wilson. There's some real moments of brilliance in here, most of them revolving around John C. Reilly's ability to roll with whatever's thrown at him as he plays the legendary musician from the age of 15--a clear knock at Kevin Spacey as the young Bobby Darin in "Beyond the Sea"--and the actor does an amazing job bringing far more depth to the character than one normally sees in this type of movie. There are also so many memorable songs that will have you in stiches from "You Gotta Love Your Negro Man" to the less than subtle innuendos in "Let's Duet" between Dewey Cox and Jenna Fischer's Darlene. Fischer and SNL alum Kristen Wiig in the Ginnifer Goodwin role as Dewey's first wife are both great foils to Reilly's wild delivery, but even more amusing are the surprising cameo appearances by the Judd Apatow gang including four familiar faces portraying the Beatles. A great addition to the musical comedy genre, "Walk Hard" is the kind of movie that can only get better over time as one memorizes some of the better songs and lines in a movie full of them. Rating: 8/10

It seems almost inevitable that this time of year, we see a few musical biopics about famous singers or musicians show up in theatres, and for the most part, they almost always use the same formula—they come from hardship, experience personal tragedy, find their way into music with their impressive talent, start doing massive amounts of drugs and eventually find fame that helps them to overcome all earlier adversity. Let's see… there's been Ray and Walk the Line and Kevin Spacey's Beyond the Sea and earlier this year, Edith Piaf got the treatment with La Vie en Rose. And now, there's Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, a goofy R-rated satire that hopes to continue Judd Apatow's lucky streak after having two back-to-back R-rated comedy hits in 2007 with Knocked Up and Superbad.

This is a very different movie from either of those because it's a spoof movie ala Airport! or the Scary Movies satirizing some of the musical biopics mentioned above, but with a bit more comedy cred due to the involvement of Apatow, working with one of his "Freaks and Geeks" vets Jake Kasdan, who helmed the cult favorite Zero Effect followed by the collegiate comedy Orange County and the recent indie comedy The TV Set. Because of their involvement, the movie will probably be looked upon more favorably in the same light as musical comedy classics like This is Spinal Tap or Christopher Guest's A Mighty Wind rather than some of the bad movie spoofs we've seen in recent years, although that doesn't necessarily mean it will make a lot of money either. (Spinal Tap was a huge theatrical flop before it found its cult audience in the cable and video market.)

One thing that will add a more to the film's credibility is Apatow and Kasdan's choice to play the title character of Dewey Cox, that being long-time favorite character actor John C. Reilly, who makes the jump to leading man after appearing as part of the ensemble casts of P.T. Anderson's early movies and other supporting roles. Reilly had already established himself as a recognizable character actor from those movies before making prominent appearances in two of the big Oscar contenders of '03, Scorsese's Gangs of New York and the movie musical Chicago, the latter which got Reilly a supporting acting Oscar nomination. The following year, he appeared as part of Scorsese's similarly lauded biopic The Aviator, but his attempt at a lead role in the Soderbergh/Clooney produced remake Criminal found very little success. In 2006, Reilly appeared in Robert Altman's last film based on Garrison Keillor's A Prairie Home Companion which gave more people a taste of Reilly's singing voice and showed he could be funny. Laster that summer, he made the full-on move to comedy opposite Will Ferrell in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, a huge comedy hit produced by Apatow, and the rest is history! After being nominated for a Golden Globe and Oscar for Chicago, Reilly last week received a second Golden Globe nomination in the leading category for his role as Cox, which might bring more attention to the film.

Reilly's joined in this comedy venture by the lovely Jenna Fischer, best known as Pam from "The Office," but she also made grounds into the film world with her role as the love interest in Blades of Glory earlier this year and in the comedy flop The Brothers Solomon in September. In Walk Hard, she's clearly the star taking on the Reese Witherspoon role. Another comedienne who has made avenues into the world of movies is "Saturday Night Live" cast member Kristen Wiig, who had a great role in Apatow's Knocked Up as Katherine Heigl's snarky boss at E! and in Walk Hard, she plays Dewey Cox's wife, similar to Ginnifer Goodwin's role in Walk the Line. The rest of the cast is made up of former SNL members like Tim Meadows and Chris Parnell, a Upright Citizen Brigade alum in Matt Besser and cameos from many of Judd Apatow's camp including… well, that would be telling, although the most unrecognizable will probably be Harold Ramis, who's looking at an amazing comeback after his small role in Knocked Up. (And sure enough, Apatow is producing Ramis' film as a director, Zero Hour.)

Sony placed the trailer in front of Superbad and this is similarly being sold mostly on the comic credentials of its writer/producer, although for this one, they only have to mention Apatow's Sony movies i.e. Superbad and Talladega. While a lot of people saw Ray and Walk the Line thanks to the huge buzz and awards potential for their stars, it's not likely that the same audience would necessarily pay to see a comedy spoofing them, since audiences for spoof movies tend to be younger. Since those biopics tend to skew older, Walk Hard has a dilemma in that it's a comedy geared towards the 18 to 25 year old audience that appreciates Apatow's love for R-rated fare, but who won't necessarily be familiar with the movies being spoofed, which is usually important for a spoof movie's success. On top of that, most of Apatow's college-age fans will be home for the holidays by the time this opens, so it's not like they'll be able to go out and see this movie with their school buddies ala Superbad, and it already has a lot of competition for its potential audience with older teens and the 20-30 something crowd having plenty of other viable choices for their moviegoing dollar. With that in mind, this is likely to open softer and rely on the holiday week to build on word-of-mouth, especially with so few other strong comedy choices and lots of free time to see movies in the coming week.

Why I Should See It: John C. Reilly is hilarious in this role… and he sings, too!
Why Not: It also stars Jenna Fischer and Kristen Wiig… okay, you got me, those are actually two more reasons why you SHOULD see it. Just go see it already!
Projections: $9 to 10 million opening weekend and roughly $45 million total.

COMPARISONS

P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.)
Starring Hilary Swank, Gerard Butler, Gina Gershon, Lisa Kudrow, Harry Connick, Jr., Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Kathy Bates, James Marsters
Directed by Richard LaGravenese (Freedom Writers, Living Out Loud); Written by Richard LaGravenese (The Mirror Has Two Faces, Beloved, The Bridges of Madison County), Steven Rogers (Kate & Leopold, Stepmom)
Genre: Drama, Romance, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Sometimes you have to live life one letter at a time."
Plot Summary: After the death of her husband Gerry (Gerard Butler), a New York woman, Holly Kennedy (Hilary Swank), has trouble adjusting to life until she starts receiving posthumous letters from him telling her that she needs to go out and experience life rather than moping at home.

Mini-Review: Even fans of the romantic comedy genre (i.e. women and girls) might have trouble suspending disbelief for this ridiculous bit of fluff that rarely knows whether it wants to be a serious drama about grieving or a light comedy about finding love. There's one thing for sure and that it's another terrible career choice for Hilary Swank, and it's a shame because it reteams her with filmmaker LaGravanese who directed Swank in the wonderful "Freedom Writers" earlier this year. After we meet Swank's character Holly as she is returning home with her Irish musician hubby Gerry, the two of them get into a huge row that seems to go on forever, but they're able to make up just in time for the opening credits and the next time we see Holly, she's joining her friends and mother (Kathy Bates) at a pub funeral for Gerry, who passed away from a brain tumor. Apparently, Gerry planned for his own death and has set up a way to send Holly a series of letters and presents from the grave in hopes that he'll be able to help her move on with life and from that simple premise comes some of the most ridiculously sappy situations put on film this year, as Holly reminisces on their life together while trying to move on. Swank has some real clunkers in her filmography, but in none of those movies does she ham it up and try to be funny, and fail as miserably as she does here. If an awful karaoke version of a Prince song wasn't enough to make one cringe, she follows it up with a pratfall that would make Sandra Bullock proud, but for the most part, the movie tries too hard, inserting a lot of dumb humor into the gloomy premise to try to liven things up when nothing else is working. Lisa Kudrow isn't exactly branching out as Holly's man-hungry best friend--the bits in the commercials are as funny as it gets--but she's always around when things turn to bad comedy, while Harry Connick Jr. plays such a pathetic loser as the bartender hoping to hook up with Holly that you actually are glad when it doesn't work out. The writing is dreadful with a lot of babbling as the character wax philosophically about life and love that feels completely false and unnatural. But worst of all is when the movie flashes back to when Holly first meets Gerry, and Hilary Swank tries to sell the audience that she can play the same character when she's 19. It's an amazing about of hubris displayed by this two-time Oscar winner thinking that she could it off, but it's par for the course in a movie that rarely works. A painful embarrassment to all involved, but mostly to those who live on New York's Lower East Side (i.e. me) who have to live with the fact that a movie this bad has been made in our usually hip neighborhood. Rating: 3/10

If John C. Reilly's comedy Walk Hard isn't the underdog of the weekend than it's this new movie that reteams filmmaker Richard LaGravenese (Living Out Loud) and Hilary Swank for their second movie of the year, another adaptation, this one of Cecelia Ahern's popular women's novel, and yes, it is the one and only romantic comedy of the holiday season which will probably have less guys seeing it than a taping of "The View." Back in the early days of January '07, Swank appeared as a teacher in LaGravenese's based-on-reality urban drama Freedom Writers, a movie that might have been up for awards in any other year but was given a questionably moderate January release which earned it just $35 million. P.S. I Love You couldn't be an more different a movie because it's pretty much a romantic dramedy that tries to take a situation like the death of a loved one and turn it into a look at life and love and…

Oh, I just can't continue this charade, because let's face it, this movie has to be the last nail in the coffin of actress Hilary Swank who keeps floundering from one bad decision to another every time she wins an Oscar (which is twice now). Does anyone remember The Core? Well, I paid to see that and I'm STILL pissed about that, although one could say that her next movie, Christopher Nolan's Insomnia was better. Luckily for Swank, she won a second Oscar in 2005 for Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby and that helped raise her Q-factor but surely jumping into genre thrillers like Brian De Palma's The Black Dahlia or The Reaping weren't the wisest moves, because they associated Swank with lower quality fare for which she won awards. (Granted, she's not the only actress who has done this… hello, Halle Berry and Hellen Mirren.) Despite Swank's Oscar worthy skills as an actor and questionable box office draw—neither of the last two movies where she was the main star did huge amounts of business—she is fairly popular and likeable among women, so it was only a matter of time before she'd appear in a lighter romantic comedy like this one. Other respectable actresses have done it before, whether it be Ashley Judd in Someone Like You or Angelina Jolie in Life or Something Like It—both bombs—while Diane Keaton has had better success in the genre, which might be why it's not so strange seeing Swank trying to tackle the genre that's done so well by actresses like Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson and Meg Ryan. In this case, it's a movie that tries to cover similar ground as last year's The Holiday or Jennifer Garner's Catch and Release, which bombed earlier this year.

Swank's dead love interest is played by Scottish actor Gerard Butler, who won more than a few female fans due to his well-toned pecs in the Warner Bros. action hit 300 earlier this year, and might be enough to get the women who swoon over him to see him in a romantic lead role. The other side of the love equation is Jeffrey Dean Morgan, who had a key role as the ailing love interest of Katherine Heigl on "Grey's Anatomy" and who will play The Comedian in 300 director Zack Snyder's movie based on Alan Moore's Watchmen. Swank's best friends are played by former "Friends" star Lisa Kudrow and Gina Gershon, both of whom can barely get people to see their indie movies, so it's doubtful they can add much here, and the same goes for Kathy Bates, who must have made a bet with Terrence Howard that she can appear in more movies than him this season.

While I'm trying very hard to put my own biases against the genre and this particular movie aside, one can't expect too much from it, especially considering Swank's box office track record—she hasn't starred in a movie that opened over $12 million and only Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby went onto bigger box office due to awards buzz, which this most certainly won't be getting. Releasing a light romantic movie geared towards women around this time of year isn't necessarily a bad idea, because they need movies to see too, although there's little reason why women might go see this over any of the other strong choices this weekend. Even the thought of it being based on a well-read novel doesn't do much when you compare it to Curtis Hanson's In Her Shoes released a few years back, and in general, just because a movie is based on a book read by many women doesn't mean they'll flock to in theatres ala last year's The Devil Wears Prada. This will have the weakest opening of any of this week's movies but maybe it can pick up some business in that busy post-Christmas week among the women who choose not to read what is likely to be mainly bad reviews.

Why I Should See It: Okay, I'll admit that Swank looks pretty foxy in the movie, but I can only say that because she's not wearing boxing gloves this time.
Why Not: You'll lose all respect for everyone involved, which is a shame because Freedom Writers wasn't a bad movie.
Projections: $6 to 8 million opening weekend and $35 to 40 million total.

COMPARISONS

THE CHOSEN ONE

Steep (Sony Film Classics)
Starring Bill Briggs, Stefano De Benedetti, Eric Pehota, Glen Plake, Shane McConkey, Seth Morrison, Chris Davenport, Ingrid Backstrom, Andrew McLean
Written and directed by Mark Obenhaus (Producer of "Peter Jennings Reporting" and "The Century")
Genre: Sports, Documentary
Rated PG
Plot Summary: The history of extreme skiing is explored from its early pioneers to the current modern-day daredevils and thrill-seekers.

Before I watched this beautifully shot doc from television news producer Mark Obenhaus, I assumed that extreme skiing was all that wild hot dog jumps and spins that we've seen in… well, in my case, it was in the Vin Diesel action classic XXX. In fact, it's all about skiing on the steepest off-trail inclines, often climbing up the mountains or riding a helicopter to the top and then heading straight down at a 50 degree or steeper angle. It's pretty amazing to watch the pros of the sport as they take various approaches to the challenging mountain cliffs, most of which look like they would be unskiable, but these amazing men and women take on the dangers of avalanches and inevitable death just to ski those seemingly impossible slopes. Sure, it's very much a talking heads doc which tries to get to the core of what makes these skiers tic, but it also features some gorgeous mountain vistas and some incredible footage of these skiers doing some unbelievable things. Probably the most jarring moment in the film though is when one such thrillseeker, Doug Combs, who was killed in an avalanche, talks in an interview about how his obsession with the sport might eventually kill him. It really drives home the point how this sport's long quest to be taken seriously is a worthwhile endeavor since it's clearly one of the most dangerous sports that takes real skill and daring. This is unquestionably one of the most amazing films dealing with man's battle against nature since Kevin Macdonald's "Touching the Void" and for better or worse, it could create a whole new interest in the sport from those who never understood it. It opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Also opening at the IFC Center in New York on Wednesday:

Flakes (IFC First Take) – "Heathers" director Michael Lehman helms this ensemble comedy starring Aaron Stanford as musician Neal Downs, who works at an innovative café that serves only breakfast cereal and suddenly finds itself facing a bit of corporate competition across the street being run by Neil's artist girlfriend (Zooey Deschanel) who wants him to give up the cafe and devote his time to music.

Mini-Review: With an amusing post-"Seinfeld" pre-Atkins concept that might have been better suited for a television sitcom, this too-cool-for-school "Singles" wannabe could have been great, but it never really goes anywhere due to its poor execution, muddling through a predictable indie comedy plot with generally flat writing and delivery. Granted, there are more than a few saving graces that make it enjoyable, like the sweet romance between indie faves Stanford and Deschanel and seeing Christopher Lloyd as another eccentric character like the one he played on "Taxi", but otherwise, the laughs are few and far between and so much more could have been done with the premise than the silly and ridiculous place where things end up. Not terrible, not great but could have been so much better with better direction and a little more money. Rating: 6/10

Next week is Christmas and the movies looking to take some business away from this week’s five new movies on Christmas Day are the creature duel sequel Aliens vs. Predator - Requiem (20th Century Fox), Denzel Washington’s second movie as a director The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Co.) and the family film The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony). It’s also the last Weekend Warrior of 2007, so enjoy!

Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas