This Week's Predictions -

1. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) - $27.2 million N/A

2. American Gangster (Universal) - $22.7 million -48%

3. Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $22.1 million -42%

4. Lions for Lambs (United Artists/MGM) - $10.2 million N/A

5. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $5.3 million - 33%

6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $5.0 million -52%

7. P2 (Summit Entertainment) - $2.7 million N/A

8. The Game Plan (Disney) - $2.5 million – 36%

9. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $2.2 million -42%

10. After Dark Horrorfest 2007 (After Dark Films) - $2.1 million N/A

Last year, three new movies opened, trying to take some business away from the powerhouse trio that kicked off the month of November, but even a Will Ferrell comedy like Stranger Than Fiction (Sony) barely could make a mark against Sacha Baron Cohen's Borat, which expanded nationwide and retained the top spot with another $28 million. Ferrell's movie opened with just $13.4 million, falling behind the competing family films The Santa Clause 3 and Flushed Away, which both ended up just under $17 million. The future Oscar contender Babel expanded nationwide into 1,251 theatres where it grossed $5.5 million while the Sarah Michelle Gellar starred supernatural thriller The Return (Rogue Pictures) opening in 9th place with $4.5 million in 700 more theatres. And then there was the romantic comedy A Good Year (20th Century Fox), which reteamed Gladiator director Ridley Scott and his star Russell Crowe, and though they're riding high with their current hit American Gangster, that effort tanked, opening at #10 with less than $4 million. The Top 10 made just under $106 million, which probably will be higher than this weekend's offerings unless Fred Claus

Fred Claus (Warner Bros.)
Starring Vince Vaughn, Paul Giamatti, Miranda Richardson, Elizabeth Banks, John Michael Higgins, Rachel Weisz, Kathy Bates, Kevin Spacey
Directed by David Dobkin (Wedding Crashers, Shanghai Knights, Clay Pigeons); Written by Dan Fogelman (Cars)
Genre: Family, Holiday, Comedy
Rated PG
Tagline: "Santa's brother is coming to town."
Plot Summary: Fred Claus (Vince Vaughn) has spent his entire life living in the shadow of his older brother Nicholas (Paul Giamatti), known the world over as "Santa Claus," maybe because he's spent life taking things away from people as a repo man rather than giving. When Fred lands in jail, his brother comes to his rescue but only under the condition that Fred comes to the North Pole and helps him make toys, knowing full well that Fred's a troublemaker who could wind up ruining Christmas for everyone.

Just another reminder that this year is going by way too fast and we're already writing about the first of many holidays movies, this one being one that actually uses the holidays as a premise, and there's many precursors for a movie like this to make a lot of money and find a huge family audience, not just kids. Right off the bat, we have Tim Allen's trio of Santa Clause movies, which cumulatively have grossed $370 million, with all of them opening in early November. More importantly, there's the family holiday comedy Elf starring Will Ferrell, which is still one of Ferrell's biggest blockbuster hits, and it has many things in common with this new comedy. The most notable one is that Ferrell starred with Fred Claus star Jon Favreau back in Todd Phillips' 2003 movie Old School, which many feel was the catalyst for a new wave of comedy that made huge stars out of both actors, and then later, Ferrell made a cameo in Vaughn's Wedding Crashers, which was helmed by Fred Claus director David Dobkin.

The key to the film's success (or failure) will be its title star Vince Vaughn who's career took a huge leap since he made the move from doing dramas and thrillers to doing full-on comedy with Old School, although the early foundations of Vaughn's comic personality could easily be traced back to the indie cult favorite Swingers with Jon Favreau, who happened to direct Will Ferrell's Elf. Since Old School, Vaughn had a featured role in the Angelina Jolie-Brad Pitt summer action flick Mr. & Mrs. Smith, followed a few months later by his own blockbuster hit when he was teamed with Owen Wilson in the aforementioned Wedding Crashers, which grossed $209 million. The following year, Vaughn was teamed with Jennifer Aniston for the anti-romantic comedy The Break-Up and rumors of the two stars being romantically linked helped that movie open with $39 million, shortly after her divorce from Brad Pitt, who was now linked with Angelina Jolie. (See? It all ties together. We just need Aniston to hook up or even do a movie with David Dobkin for the circle to be complete!)

In a bit of perfect casting, Santa Claus is played by Paul Giamatti, who is always great when playing up the more comedic aspect of his personality in movies like Alexander Payne's Sideways and American Splendor. Unfortunately, he's still not proven as a box office draw as both his starring role in M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water and the recent action flick Shoot 'Em Up with Clive Owen tanked at the box office, so obviously America doesn't appreciate leading men who don't have much hair or are a bit heavier than normal. Then again, putting him in Santa Claus' beard and outfit is a bit of genius casting, and it should allow Giamatti to trade comic timing with Vaughn.

Although those two guys are the biggest sell, the impressive ensemble cast includes the likes of Rachel Weisz--doing her first comedy since the Ben Stiller-Jack Black bomb Envy (back on the horse, girl!)--the always funny Elizabeth Banks who has done some great comic turns as recently as the year's biggest movie Spider-Man 3, the always great Kevin Spacey and Kathy Bates (who is appearing in about four movies this holiday season), Miranda Richardson who was very funny as Rita Skeeter in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and last but certainly not least, John Michael Higgins, a member of the Christopher Guest comedy troupe, who's stolen many scenes including a couple in Vaughn's The Break-Up.

Fred Claus has two potential audiences, the families with kids who are antsy for their annual visit from Fred's older brother and the teen and older fans of Vince Vaugn's edgier humor who will be interested in the movie since it's one of the few non-animated comedies in theatres. In some ways, they might look at this a bit like Eddie Murphy's family comedies, movies that might be better for kids and not for them, but really isn't very much else to see in the vein, especially for the 20 – 30 something audience who already saw American Gangster last weekend.

One big difference between this and the Santa Clause movies were that those were rated G and had the Disney backing, which meant that parents with small kids could trust the movies to be safe to take their younger kids. Parents familiar with Vaughn's edgier humor might be a bit more hesitant, even thought that didn't hurt Will Ferrell's Elf at all as it continued to build audiences based on positive word-of-mouth. Despite the movie having to face DreamWorks' Bee Movie in its second weekend, Warner Bros. would love to have a hit the size of Elf or their 2004 animated project The Polar Express from director Robert Zemeckis (who unveils his follow-up Beowulf next week), which is why the movie is being released in early November, at the start of the holiday season. Having a holiday movie released in early November allows it to do well its opening weekend, but also almost guarantees a big bump over Thanksgiving weekend, the biggest weekend for families to go to a movie together and when the holidays are on everyone's mind, and then keep motoring along until the end of December. This being one of Warner Bros.' few big holiday movies, they're giving it a huge marketing push, especially since they know it has a couple weeks before the Disney movie Enchanted comes along and charms many girls away from this. Either way, the families with kids who do find the premise funny combined with the teens and older looking for something to hopefully make them laugh will help make this the #1 movie of the weekend even if it's forgotten faster than Deck the Halls come December 26.

Why I Should See It: Vince Vaughn is generally funny and this might be his best chance at expanding to a younger audience ala Eddie Murphy. (Okay, maybe that's a bad example.)
Why Not: This looks like such a blatant rip-off of Elf and The Santa Clause movies that it's hard to believe that those making the movie did it for anything less than a big paycheck, which they'll probably get.
Projections: $26 to 29 million opening weekend but Thanksgiving and the holidays should help it amass closer to $125 million or more.

COMPARISONS

Lions for Lambs (United Artists/MGM)
Starring Tom Cruise, Meryl Streep, Robert Redford, Michael Peña, Derek Luke, Andrew Garfield, Peter Berg
Directed by Robert Redford (The Legend of Bagger Vance, The Horse Whisperer, Quiz Show, A River Runs Through It); Written by Matthew Michael Carnahan (The Kingdom)
Genre: Politics, War, Drama
Rated R
Tagline: "If you don't STAND for something, you might FALL for anything."
Plot Summary: A TV journalist (Meryl Streep) gets an exclusive interview with a high-powered Republican senator (Tom Cruise) for him to share his new strategy on Afghanistan, while two Marines (Michael Peña, Derek Luke) are trapped behind enemy lines while trying to carry out their mission. Years later, college professor Dr. Malley (Robert Redford) meets with a slacking political science student (Andrew Garfield) to tell him about two of his past students.

Dual Review with Brian de Palma's "Redacted"

We're living in troubled times and nothing makes it clearer than the choices we're offered when we go to the movies as every screenwriter, filmmaker and actor has used the film medium to share their views on the government or the world around us or at least to try to offer a couple opinions in hopes of changing some minds or making a difference. Maybe, that was part of the decision for Tom Cruise and Robert Redford to team together to make Lions for Lambs, a politically-minded war drama written by Matthew Michael Carnahan, who just had his screenplay for The Kingdom directed by Peter Berg (who has a small role in this flick). The first movie in Cruise's relaunch of the United Artists label, Lions for Lambs is a very different animal in that it doesn't take place in the field as is the case with most war dramas. Instead, it's staged a bit like a play, cutting between two heated political debates, one pitting Meryl Streep against Tom Cruise, and the other pairing Robert Redford with newcomer Andrew Garfield (who impressed Harvey Weinstein enough with his performance in the Toronto selection Boy A for him to pick up the movie's distribution). These talking heads scenes are interspersed with something right out of Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Behind Enemy Lines, featuring talented actors Michael Peña and Derek Luke as Marines trapped in the crossfire in Afghanistan. It's an interesting idea to combine three generations of actor like Redford, one of the biggest stars of the '60s and '70s, with younger actors, especially by putting most of his scenes with the newbie of the bunch.

Still, the biggest selling point for the movie will be Cruise himself, appearing in his first movie in over a year, and regardless of how you feel about his choice in religion or the way he chooses to express his love for wife Katie Holmes, he's an actor who has proven himself as a box office draw time and time again. Lions for Lambs is a very different movie from his last two which were both summer blockbusters, the most recent one being Mission: Impossible III, the third chapter of the franchise which many felt under-delivered at the box office. A year earlier, he starred in Steven Spielberg's remake of War of the Worlds, Cruise's highest grossing movie to date. Playing an always-smiling barely likeable senator in Lions for Lambs is probably closer to Cruise's role in Paul Thomas Anderson's 1999 movieMagnolia, which got Cruise an Oscar nomination but only grossed $22 million in theatres. Most of Cruises's movies between that one and War of the Worlds have grossed at least $100 million, showing that it didn't do much to lessen Cruise as a box office draw, just wasn't the kind of thing his fans wanted to see.

Despite having been nominated for more Academy Awards then any single actor or actress, Meryl Streep's box office record isn't particularly impressive having only appeared in two movies that grossed over $100 million in the last three years. Kramer vs. Kramer was the first of those in 1979 and the second was 2004's Lemony Snicket movie. She's been in a lot of movies in the $50 to $80 million range, many of them which got attention for Streep's performance and awards consideration, the last one of these being Jonathan Demme's The Manchurian Candidate in 2003, but her most recent appearance was another global drama ripped from today's headlines, Rendition, which tanked its opening weekend and hasn't found much of an audience. Unlike those last two movies, Streep plays more or less the protagonist in the piece, representing most liberal Americans' views of the government's war on terror, and her involvement is likely to attract more older moviegoers than Cruise at this point.

No one really could call Robert Redford a slouch among older moviegoers either, having directed six films between 1980 and 2000, though he hasn't been particularly active either as an actor or a director in nearly 7 years. His most recent movie as an actor (besides providing a voice for last year's Charlotte's Web) was Lasse Halstrom's long-delayed An Unfinished Life which made roughly $8.5 million last year after being dumped by Miramax, just slightly more than his previous movie, The Clearing. More prominent Redford movies of the last few years had him starring opposite Brad Pitt in Tony Scott's Spy Game and opposite James Gandolfini in Rod Lurie's The Last Castle. As a director, Redford's biggest success was The Horse Whisperer which grossed $75 million, although none of his movies have received the Oscar recognition of his first movie Ordinary People, which won 4 awards out of 8 nominations. His last movie, the golfing drama The Legend of Bagger Vance, failed to find much of an audience despite its strong cast which included Will Smith, Matt Damon and Charlize Theron.

Rounding out the cast are Michael Peña who followed his role in the award-winning ensemble cast of Paul Haggis' Crash by starring opposite Nicolas Cage in Oliver Stone's 9/11 drama World Trade Center, and Derek Luke, who made his debut in Denzel Washington's directorial debut Antwone Fischer and has appeared in a variety of movies including the political thriller Spartan and last year's South African drama Catch a Fire, neither which did particularly well. Their aspect of the movie is like something out of Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Behind Enemy Lines, two movies that came out right after the 9/11 attacks and around the time we were in Afghanistan and were able to bring in a bit of business from those who still believed that the government were doing the right thing.

Being five years later, Americans seem less likely to want to see a movie so politically-driven, which makes it difficult to market on top of the fact that it's a slow, talkie movie mixed with lower-budget war segments like something out of Basic, and it requires a lot of heavy thinking with its message and intentions, much like Paul Haggis' In the Valley of Elah, which tried to take a subtler approach to tackling the problems with war. Although the movie might interest older guys for the war scenes, the commercials and trailer don't play those up as much, maybe because they know that it's the scenes with Cruise and Streep that might sell the audience on seeing it, though they make the movie look more like Rod Lurie's The Contender.

Reviews have generally been mixed, which is to be expected due to the movie's political nature and the recent Tom Cruise backlash, and it's unlikely to get the bump that an awards movie might get, although MGM will probably try their best to promote it since it does have the "Cruise factor" which could help this movie overcome the studio's recent bad luck with opening movies.

It probably won't help that so far this year, movies about global and political issues like that haven't fared particularly well with movies like The Kingdom doing far less business than its star Jamie Foxx's 2005 war drama Jarhead, and then of course, there's the case of Rendition, which bombed even worse. Lion for Lambs is opening in a similar number of theatres as Rendition though it's likely to do better just on the basis of Cruise and Redford, who haven't appeared in nearly as many movies as Streep. With few other choices for older adults—the main exception being Ridley Scott's American Gangster--this should do well enough to get into the Top 5, although it will have a hard time against the stronger and more mainstream fare playing in theatres.

Why I Should See It: Great cast, intriguing politically-minded script and it is very different from other movies in theatres.
Why Not: If I wanted to watch politics or war, I'd turn on CSPAN or CNN, dammit.
Projections: $9 to 11 million opening weekend and roughly $30 million total.

COMPARISONS

P2 (Summit Entertainment)
Starring Rachel Nichols, Wes Bentley, Simon Reynolds, Grace Lynn Kung, Paul Sun-Hyung Lee
Directed by Franck Khalfoun (debut); Written by Alexandre Aja and Gregory Levasseur (High Tension, The Hills Have Eyes, upcoming Mirrors, Piranha) Franck Khalfoun
Genre: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "A new level of fear." (Yeah, it's clever but probably needs explanation with the whole elevator theme in the film's title.)
Plot Summary: Angela Bridges (Rachel Nichols) an ambitious career-minded young woman stuck working late on Christmas Eve in her office building is stalked and terrorized by an obsessed security guard (Wes Bentley) forcing her to fight back if she wants to survive.
"Torture porn is dead" they say… OR IS IT!?!? Well, I dunno, maybe this new movie from the writers of High Tension and The Hills Have Eyes remake might tone down the gore and be more of a psychological thriller than the French horror movie that first got them attention here, although it has a similar premise of a woman terrorized, who turns around and gets revenge on killer. Hopefully, this one won't have the same stupid lame-ass twist as that movie, and maybe it'll make a bit more money--High Tension made less than $4 million theatres despite a strong marketing campaign from Lionsgate—but the fact that this is a first release from a new indie distributor isn't promising.

The cast is generally unimpressive in terms of box office, even though it stars the ultra-cute Rachel Nichols of the ABC drama "Alias" who had a small role in Rod Lurie's Resurrecting the Champ and will appear in the anticipated Charlie Wilson's War. She also had a role in the remake of The Amityville Horror with another "Alias" cutie, Melissa George, though hopefully, her horror movie follow-up does better than George's Turistas, which bombed last December. In the movie, she's terrorized by the always creepy Wes Bentley, who got his early stalking chops in Sam Mendes' American Beauty before appearing in the horror bomb Soul Survivors and Shekar Kaphur's The Four Feathers. Most recently, he played the bad guy opposite Nicolas Cage in the action blockbuster Ghost Rider, although how many people will know he's in this movie? Or care?

The difficulties of getting a new distribution company off the ground are the stuff of legend and Summit is following in a long line of indie distributors who have tried to break into the movie distribution business by releasing their first movies way too wide without the support to back them up. In January '06, Uwe Boll's BloodRayne was self-distributed by a new company called Romar Releasing and it had trouble getting theatres and screens to play the movie even in the weaker winter season. P2 will be trying to get screens away from much stronger fare and theatres will not be too forgiving with it if it doesn't do decent business its opening weekend, immediately wanting to give the screen to other holiday movies.

Last year this weekend, Rogue Pictures tried to open The Return, a supernatural thriller starring Sarah Michelle Gellar, but it tanked making less than $5 million and though P2 is opening in a similar number theatres, it doesn't have a star and the marketing campaign makes it look like a retread of After Dark's failed Captivity starring Elisha Cuthbert. Summit's problems trying to open this may be compounded by the fact that they're opening their movie against After Dark's highly-publicized Horrorfest 2 (See below), which is likely to be a stronger draw for horror fans merely on the basis of originality and variety of the offerings. P2 will probably have a very limited audience of creepy stalker types looking for more tips and is not likely to do much business after this weekend.

Why I Should See It: It's about time that we show some support for the underdog!
Why Not: If you've seen Captivity… how was it? You were probably the only person who saw that creepy stalker movie in theatres, too.

Projections: $2 to 3 million opening and less than $5 million total.

COMPARISONS

The Chosen One:
In any other week, the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men would be the Chosen One, but this week also sees the release of what I feel is one of the best documentaries of the year.

War/Dance (THINKFilm)
Starring Dominic, Rose, Nancy (three students at the Patongo School in Northern Uganda)
Directed by Sean and Andrea Nix Fine
Genre: Documentary
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: This documentary follows three Ugandan children at the Patongo Elementary School within a refugee camp in the warzone of Northern Uganda as they travel to the capitol of Kampala for the prestigious annual National Music Competition.

My Early Review from the Sundance Film Festival

Interview with Sean and Andrea Nix Fine

It's not often that a movie sticks with you as long as this one has, but I saw Sean and Andrea Fine's War/Dance back in early January, before the Sundance Film Festivals, and it says something about a movie that after seeing nearly 300 other movies, this one still sticks with me and is still one of my favorite movies of the year. On the one hand, it's a heart-wrenching look at the children of this Ugandan war zone who have had relatives killed as many children are inducted into the rebel army at an early age, but it's also a wonderful story about how one group of kids at a school within the warzone are able to overcome the odds to get down to the National Music Competition in Kampala, nearly a two-day buss drive. There's a lot of things that make this film special and it's not because it offers some of the same thrills that make typical competitive sports docs so entertaining. A lot of it comes down to the way that Sean and Andrea fine have been able to intermingle with the children of the Acholi tribe at the Patongo Elementary School and follow three kids who have had to overcome the nightmares of the region to follow their dreams of going to the music competition. There's 14-year old Dominic, kidnapped with his brother who he hasn't seen since that night, who's mastery of his primitive log xylophone drives the school's band, Rose is a shy member of the choir who saw both her parents killed and Nancy loses herself in dance to get over the murder of her father. But surprisingly, this movie isn't a downer, because watching this school's journey to the competition in Kampala, all of them piled onto a truck with their instruments, is an amazing heartwarming tale that really turns this film into such a special experience. War/Dance also doesn't look like your typical documentary thanks to Sean Fine's sharp camerawork, beautifully capturing the environment and the people of Uganda in a unique way.

Opening in New York and L.A. on Friday, this is recommended if you liked movies like Spellbound or Mad Hot Ballroom ore recent dramas set in Africa, but if you see only one documentary this year, this should be the one.

Honorable Mention:

No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
Starring Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin, Woody Harrelson, Kelly Macdonald
Written and Directed by Joel and Ethan Coen
Genre: Crime, Thriller, Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: Based on Cormac McCarthy's novel about a Texan man named Llewellyn Moss (Josh Brolin) who comes across a drug deal gone wrong and finds a suitcase containing two million dollars that puts him on the run from the drug dealers and their hired assassin, Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem), while a local sheriff (Tommy Lee Jones) tries to get to the bottom of the trail of bodies that keep turning up.
Tagline: "There Are No Clean Getaways"
Of Note: The Coen Brothers return to what they do best, telling a gripping crime tale in their inimitable style.

My Thoughts from the Toronto International Film Festival

Also in Limited Release:

After Dark Horrorfest 2007 (After Dark Films) - This year, After Dark Films extends their annual horror film fest to a week-long affair that runs through November 18, and this year's line-up includes eight more "films to die for" including festival faves Unearthed and Mulberry Street and movies with great titles like Lake Dead, Nightmare Man and others. It's opening in 330 theatres, which is less than last year's Horrorfest, but the added push of the DVD releases earlier this year should help get some more people into theatres to the tune of $2 to 3 million. You can find where the movies are playing and get advance tickets through the >Official Site.

Choking Man (Independent Film Circuit) - Steve Barron, director of the famous a-ha video for "Take on Me", tells the story of an Ecuadorian dishwasher working at a diner in Queens run by a tough boss (Mandy Patinkin) who tries to find a way to express his love for the diner's new Chinese waitress. Having debuted at the Tribeca Film Festival in 2006, it opens at New York's Cinema Village on Friday.

Christmas in Wonderland (Yari Film Group) – Patrick Swayze, Carmen Electra and Chris Kattan star in James Orr's holiday comedy about a family from L.A. who move to Edmonton, Canada with no friends and no money until the kids find a sack of money that belongs to a couple of crooks that come looking for it. This family holiday comedy will try to take on Fred Claus in Raleigh, St. Louis, Baltimore, and Orlando before expanding nationwide on November 21.

Holly (Priority Films) - Ron Livingston and the late Chris Penn star in this drama about the underage sex trade in Cambodia, following a photographer ex-pat who meets a young Vietnamese girl named Holly (Virginie Ledoyen) whose spirit moves him to try to track her down when she's sent away to another brothel. It opens exclusively at the Clearview 62nd and Broadway Theatre in New York.

National Lampoon Presents Electric Apricot (National Lampoon) - Primus frontman Les Claypool wrote and directed this "Spinal Tap" like spoof of jam bands—of which Primus is one—following a made-up band called the Electric Apricot. Featuring lots of musicians from the jam band scene like The Grateful Dead's Bob Weir, Phish's Mike Gordon and more, the comedy opens in select areas for a few select showings, which you can find out about on the official site before airing on Comedy Central.

Saawariya (Sony) - Directed by Bollywood legend Sanjay Leela Bhansali, this musical based on Fyodor Dosoevsky's short story "White Nights" tells the story of an isolated dreamer who brings happiness with his poetry and the four nights that will change his life after a chance encounter in a small picturesque town. Apparently, the studio that brought you Julie Taymor's Across the Universe has gone Bollywood! It opens in select cities this weekend.

Steal a Pencil For Me (Seventh Art Releasing) - This documentary from Michèle Ohayon is the true tale of a love triangle between an unhappily married Dutch man named Jack Polak who falls for 20-year-old Ina, a beauty from a wealthy family, much to the disapproval of his wife. When all three of them end up in the same concentration camp, he's forced to keep his love for Ina alive through the hardships via secret love letters. (Oh, those wacky Dutch!) It opens at New York's Quad Cinema and in L.A. on Friday.

Next week, two literary epics come to the screen although Robert Zemeckis' animated Beowulf (Paramount) will probably kick the ass of the Spanish literary classic (and Oprah Book Club pick) Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line), starring Javier Bardem. The one original movie is the holiday family film Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Fox Walden), starring Natalie Portman and Dustin Hoffman.