Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we're getting our predictions in by the skin of our teeth!
The year is almost over but Thanksgiving weekend starts another distinct phase of the holiday season where studios start putting their best foot forward in hopes of their movies sticking around through Christmas and New Year's where a lot of money can be made. Of course, this doesn't always happen since most people have five completely free days to see any of the new movies in theatres they may want to see, which tends to make the Thanksgiving releases more frontloaded than normal. Thanksgiving weekend is also a great time for those who don't go to movies often to get the whole family together and catch up on movies they may have missed.
While that will certainly help movies like Bee Movie and Fred Claus this weekend, it seems very likely that Disney's latest family film, Enchanted, a combination live action and animated movie starring Amy Adams… (we'll take a pause here to swoon)… will take advantage of how long the other two movies have already been in theatres to offer holiday shoppers, particularly families with small children and young girls, an obvious choice this weekend. It won't hurt either that it's opening in significantly more theatres than any of the other new movies this weekend.
Still, the most interesting battle of the weekend will likely be between the R-rated "adult movies", both of which may be the first choice among teen and older males, couples without kids and the non-family crowd, even as they also will both have to compete with the huge buzz backing the Coen Brothers' long-awaited No Country for Old Men which will expand nationwide on Wednesday. Thanksgiving weekend has rarely been a good weekend to release a non-family movie with only a few exceptions, and having three potentially strong movies each with their own draw could essentially dilute the market keeping any of them from having as big an opening as they may have in other weekends.
Luc Besson took the popular video game Hitman (20th Century Fox) and turned it into an action vehicle for Timothy Olyphant (Live Free or Die Hard), which will hope to entice the younger male fanbase of the games, but it's likely that Frank Darabont's latest movie Stephen King's The Mist (Dimension Films), which has generated a lot of early buzz, will win out over the weekend merely because it will have more appeal to older audiences and women. Either way, both movies might be hurt by the presence of the other, and Hitman is likely to do a lot of its business on Wednesday and Thursday and not so much over the weekend.
As if there weren't enough holiday movies in the market already, Preston A. Whitmore II presents an ensemble holiday film called This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) with a cast of African-American superstars, and it's getting a plum release in the weekend where holiday movies always do well targeting a specific ethnic group that might have little interest in most of the other choices. Despite opening in fewer theatres than the others, expect it to do particularly well on Friday and Saturday.
Last and possibly least, Freddie Highmore, Keri Russell, Jonathan Rhys-Meyers, Robin Williams and Terrence Howard star in the musical drama August Rush (Warner Bros.), but it will probably appeal only to teen girls, who will already have Enchanted as their first choice, and few others.
(The Weekend Warrior would like to say with great humility and slight embarassment that Thanksgiving has always been his WORST weekend predictions year after year, and he expects this year to be absolutely no different.)
This Week's Predictions (Numbers below are for the three-day weekend only) -
1. Enchanted (Disney) - $27.9 million N/A
2. Beowulf (Paramount) - $17.1 million -38%
3. Stephen King's The Mist (Dimension) - $13.8 million N/A
4. Hitman (20th Century Fox) - $12.5 million N/A
5. Bee Movie (DreamWorks) - $11.8 million -16%
6. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) - $11.0 million -8%
7. American Gangster (Universal) - $9.2 million -29%
8. This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems) - $8.2 million N/A
9. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Fox Walden) - $8 million -18%
10. August Rush (Warner Bros.) - $6.5 million N/A
11. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) - $5.2 million 73%
Last Thanksgiving, none of the new movies could defeat the powerhouse duo of Warner Bros.' Happy Feet and the James Bond movie Casino Royale, which grossed $97 million between them over the five-day holiday weekend. The only movie to offer any sort of real competition was the third pairing of Denzel Washington and Tony Scott in the action flick Deja Vu, which grossed $29 million over the five days, but only $20 million of it over the three-day weekend. As would be expected, the holiday comedy Deck the Halls pitting Matthew Broderick against Danny de Vito did better over the weekend with $12 million in the three days. Winding up near the bottom of the charts were Darren Aronofsky's long-delayed sci-fi drama The Fountain and Tenacious D in the Pick of Destiny, both which tanked in trying to find a hip 20-to-30 something audience in a weekend that's rarely a good thing. (Not a good sign for The Mist or Hitman!) Either way, this week's selections doesn't stand a chance of matching the nearly $200 million made by the Top 10 over the five days.
Enchanted (Disney)
Starring Amy Adams, Patrick Dempsey, James Marsden, Timothy Spall, Idina Menzel, Rachel Covey, Susan Sarandon
Directed by Kevin Lima (Tarzan, 102 Dalmations); Written by Bill Kelly (Premonition)
Genre: Family, Fantasy, Animation, Musical, Comedy
Rated PG
Tagline: "The real world and the animated world collide."
Plot Summary: Princess Giselle (Amy Adams) is banished by the evil queen (Susan Sarandon) from their animated fairy tale world to modern-day New York City, where she falls for a handsome lawyer (Patrick Dempsey), much to the chagrin of the brave formerly-animated prince (James Marsden) who follows over to try and save her.
A really good thing about Thanksgiving weekend is that it tends to be a great weekend every year to release a family film, which is probably why Disney has claimed this weekend as their own for so many years, going back to Pixar’s Toy Story movies and movies like 101 Dalmations and its sequel 102 Dalmations, not to mention Eddie Murphy’s Haunted Mansion. In the past few years, they’ve had to compete with Warner Bros.’ blockbuster "Harry Potter" franchise or a James Bond movie or others, but this year, they have an open market that will allow them to hopefully recapture some of that Disney magic that spawned huge animated hits like The Lion King, The Little Mermaid, Tarzan and others.
Enchanted isn’t a fully animated movie but it takes the principal of Disney animated classics like Snow White and the Seven Dwarves, Cinderella and others and put them into a modern-day real world setting, specifically New York City, and it’s one of the studio’s big holiday tentpoles, the other being the sequel to National Treasure. While it’s somewhat of a risk producing such a big movie without having a big name star, many think this will be the movie that finally turns Amy Adams into a big star similar to what Legally Blonde did for Reese Witherspoon or Disney’s previous ingénue Anne Hathaway, who found a large audience of young female fans from the two Princess Diaries movies. Adams played small roles in big movies like Steven Spielberg’s Catch Me If You Can, but it was the tiny indie Junebug that introduced the world to her talents, as she garnered an Oscar nomination for her performance as the very pregnant and naïve young woman who stole the movie. She followed that with a love interest role in Will Ferrell’s Talladega Nights and a small role in the recent comedy bomb The Ex. (A neat little factoid: Adams has appeared in a movie that opened the first weekend of August for the last three years.) In case you haven’t figured it out, she tends to play very sweet and lovable characters that has earned her fans among critics and journalists, and it’s just a matter of that translating to moviegoers, so Enchanted is a great vehicle to do that.
For this movie, Adams has two leading men with Patrick Dempsey a.k.a. "McDreamy" from "Grey's Anatomy" playing her New York love interest and James Marsden aka X-Men’s Cyclops following up his musical breakthrough in New Line’s Hairspray with another singing role, this time as the formerly animated prince who follows Giselle to New York. Despite Dempsey’s recent television popularity, and his success as a young actor in '80s comedies, his presence hasn’t done much to bring people into films like Freedom Writers earlier this year, although this sort of romantic comedy role seems suited towards him. The main baddie, the evil queen, is played by the always great Susan Sarandon, while Idina Menzel of the musical "Rent" plays Dempsey’s current girlfriend, though the real sign that the movie is trying to continue the Disney tradition is the fact they have Disney musical legend Julie Andrews (you might remember her as "Mary Poppins") providing the voice of the narrator. They are by joined Tim Spall a.k.a. Peter Pettigrew from Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, who will also appear in Tim Burton’s musical Sweeney Todd next month.
In the last twenty years, a number of movies have tried combining animation and live action with Robert Zemeckis’ Who Framed Roger Rabbit being one of most successful—if you don’t include Gene Kelly dancing with Jerry the Mouse in MGM’s Anchors Aweigh. Warner Bros. has had mixed success combining their Looney Tunes characters with live actors in movies like Space Jam and Looney Tunes: Back in Action and more consistent success by doing the same with the Scooby Doo movies. Most recently, Disney tried capturing the success of the latter by reviving the popular cartoon character Underdog with Adams providing the voice of the hero’s canine love interest Polly Purebread, but it only did moderate business over the summer. Enchanted, on the other hand, isn’t really that sort of thing, instead being an animated movie brought to life, though it retains many of the qualities of Disney’s most beloved animated classics, most notably the big production song and dance numbers. On top of that, it works like a fantasy romantic comedy that will appeal to girls and women much like some of Reese Witherspoon’s more successful movies and the aforementioned Princess Diaries.
Disney’s new movie will probably receive the best reviews and buzz for the weekend, as some pundits have been hailing Adams as a repeat Oscar contender, this time in the leading actress category, for her performance as the animated princess come to life. Even with that in mind, the Disney name and marketing will play the biggest part in this movie finding its audience, although one would presume that it would appeal more to women and young girls than guys of any age, who’ll have plenty of other choices to see this weekend. That said, this is the kind of movie that families will be able to enjoy as a whole, and the two strongest contenders for that audience--DreamWorks’ animated Bee Movie and Vince Vaughn’s Fred Claus--have already been playing long enough to be old hat to many or most kids. One can expect that Disney’s return to older traditions—even if they are making fun of them—will have a wide appeal to many holiday shoppers this weekend.
Why I Should See It: AMY ADAMS!!!!!!!!!! ::swoon::
Why Not: Because any single guy in his 40's who goes to see this movie just for Amy Adams without bringing a date or kids will probably be given a wide berth in what’s likely to be packed theatres this weekend. (At least that will be my excuse for waiting until Monday to see it.)
Projections: $9 to 11 million on Wednesday and Thursday and another $26 to 29 million over the weekend (that’s about $38 to 40 million over the five days, enough to take #1 not only this weekend but next week as well!), and it should wind up somewhere in the range of $100 million total or slightly higher.
Stephen King's The Mist (Dimension Films)
Starring Thomas Jane, Marcia Gay Harden, Andre Braugher, Laurie Holden, Toby Jones, William Sadler, Frances Sternhagen, Jeffrey DeMunn
Written and directed by Frank Darabont (The Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile, The Majestic)
Genre: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "Fear Changes Everything"
Plot Summary: After a storm hits a small town in Maine, artist David Drayton (Thomas Jane) and his son Billy are trapped in the town's supermarket as heavy mist crawls across the town killing anyone who ventures into it, and the townspeople have to work together to find out a way to survive the horrors to come.
Mini-Review: A remarkably faithful adaptation of King's novella where even the most insignificant character is given weight and depth due to the fantastic ensemble cast assembled by Darabont for his fourth King adaptation. Thomas Jane does an okay job anchoring the movie, but it's Marcia Gay Harden and Toby Jones who leave the most lasting impression as a religious fanatic and the story's unlikely action hero. While there are times when the movie gets too caught up in its dialogue scenes and over-the-top melodrama--almost as if the actors don't realize they're making a horror movie--the film never rests on its laurels when it explodes with edge-of-your-seat scenes where the deadly CG creatures from the mist attack the inhabitants of the supermarket with a lot more blood and gore than some might expect. These are clearly the movie's most memorable scenes as those creeped out by spiders or giant tentacles reaching out from the night will be suitably freaked out. While the CG isn't by any means perfect or state-of-the-art, the low-budget work brings an added B-movie flavor to the movie that really works well with the tone of King's story. The ending, the one time where the movie veers completely away from King's blueprint, is one that will shock and surprise anyone who thinks they know where things are going, although it's far more of a downer than King's original optimistically open-ended story. Even so, this is the type of horror movie that can be enjoyed more than just by fans of the genre and probably will get better with time to the point where it's destined to be considered among the classic King horror adaptations. Rating: 7.5/10
It's only been a few months since the movie based on Stephen King's short story 1408 starring John Cusack, became a surprise summer hit and already, Dimension are releasing another King movie, this one based on a short story he wrote over 25 years ago. This one is adapted by the filmmaker who has had incredible success adapting King's work, Frank Darabont, although this is the first time he's adapted one of King's horror stories. King had the most success at the movies during the ‘80s and ‘90s with classics like Christine and Brian De Palma's Carrie, but things started to taper off in the early ‘90s until Darabont tackled King's The Green Mile with Tom Hanks, which wound up being one of the highest grossing King-based movies ever with $136 million, but by that point, King's work had already been transitioned to a regular series of TV movies. Four years later, the attempt by Lawrence Kasdan to adapt King's Dreamcatcher was a disaster, and it wasn't until 1408 earlier this year where a studio tried to bring King
Rather than going for stars, Darabont has assembled an impressive cast of character actors including at least one Oscar winner in the bunch. That would be Marcia Gay Harden who realizes the film's prime baddie—aside from the killer creatures in the mist—as Mrs. Carmody, an ultra-religious fanatic who adds to the trouble faced by those trapped in the supermarket with her. The film's main star though is Thomas Jane, best known as The Punisher, but he also starred in the 2003 adaptation of King's novel Dreamcatcher and has come out as a big horror and genre fan in his own right, which brings an added credibility to his casting. Other key roles are played by Laurie Holden, who appeared on "The X-Files" and in last year's Silent Hill, and Andre Braugher, a noted character actor who has starred in acclaimed television shows like Tom Fontana's "Homicide." The oddest casting might be that of Brit actor Toby Jones, who played Truman Capote in Doug McGrath's Infamous and provided the voice for Dobby the house-elf in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.
Even though the movie doesn't have a name star that might entice holiday shoppers into theatres, Stephen King's name and the direction of the highly-respected Darabont, will be a key factor for the movie fans that might make this their choice for the holiday weekend. Most of King's fans would probably be in the 30 to 40 year old range by now, but the film's promise of scares and gore could help bring in the college age crowd, who might just be into seeing a cool effects-laden horror flick. Unfortunately, younger horror fans might immediately assume this is a rip-off of the recent remake of John Carpenter's The Fog or Silent Hill. It also has some tough competition for that audience with Fox's Hitman, but this is more likely to appeal to the older moviegoers as well as women, although that would usually be the case with a movie based on Stephen King's work anyway. As mentioned in this column's opening, Thanksgiving weekend is rarely good weekend for a movie like this with the only movies even remotely resembling this that found any success being M. Night Shyamalan's Unbreakable and Arnold Schwartzeneger's End of Days.
That said, you really can't get a much better distributor for this type of movie than Bob Weinstein's Dimension Films, although their previous attempts to release a movie over Thanksgiving weekend (Wes Craven Presents Them) was met with complete and utter failure. Like Hitman, it might suffer the same problems that many R-rated films have suffered when opened over Thanksgiving weekend, because there's far more interest in movies that families can see together and this really is more of a movie that single males or couples might see. Still, reviews and word-of-mouth from early preview screenings should be strong and King's diehard fanbase, not to mention the cinephiles who realize what a great job Darabont has done with his past two King adaptations, should make this a first choice for those who've already seen No Country for Old Men and/or those who have no interest in the kiddie fare.
Why I Should See It: Frank Darabont produces one of the most faithful adaptations of a Stephen King horror story, one that's a sure crowd-pleaser for fans of horror movies.
Why Not: Who wants to see an apocalyptic horror-thriller over Thanksgiving weekend? If only this were set during Christmas and Santa showed up to save the day!
Projections: $5 to 7 million on Thursday and Friday and another $13 to 15 million over the weekend ($18 to 20 million five-day) on its way to $45 million.
COMPARISONS
Hitman (20th Century Fox)
Starring Timothy Olyphant, Dougray Scott, Olga Kurylenko, Robert Knepper, Ulrich Thomsen, Michael Offei
Directed by Xavier Gens (Frontières); Written by Skip Woods (Swordfish, upcoming G.I. Joe)
Genre: Action, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline:
Plot Summary: Agent 47 (Timothy Olyphant) is a nameless assassin for hire who is being chased across Europe by Interpol and the Russian military after being set-up in a political takeover plot, although at the same time, he's fighting his own conscience for what he's done.
Despite being based on a popular video game, Hitman may be the head-scratching anomaly of the weekend, being a low-key action movie starring Timothy Olyphant with a simple one-word title that has used a similarly vague marketing campaign to get young males interested. Of course, many guys under 20 will probably know that the movie is based on a first-person shooter game, but those outside gaming circles might have trouble figuring out why this might be a better choice than Stephen King's The Mist. While the main appeal might be to fans of the game, the movie does offer elements that might appeal to fans of intrigue that helped make the "Bourne" trilogy such a success. Others might be interested because one of the producers on the movie is respected action maven Luc Besson, who successfully turned Jason Statham into an action star with the two "Transporter" movies, and this movie harks back to some of his early classics like The Professional, although fellow French director Xavier Gens, who has earned respect among genre fans for his horror film Frontieres, actually helmed the movie.
Hitman's star is just as unlikely an action hero, and few people might consider Timothy Olyphant a box office star that can carry a movie since he tends to play secondary roles. That said, he is becoming more known for recent projects, like playing the bad guy in Bruce Willis' return as John McClane in Live Free or Die Hard, which Fox wisely used to debut the brilliant "Ave Maria" trailer for Hitman. Before that, Olyphant was starting to find a fanbase from his role on the HBO Western "Deadwood." (Ironically, Olyphant also co-starred in the 2003 adaptation of Stephen King's Dreamcatcher with Thomas Jane, star of Hitman's biggest competition this weekend The Mist.)
There haven't been that many hugely successful movies based on video games, the notable exception being the Mortal Kombat and Resident Evil movies and the first Tomb Raider starring Angelina Jolie, but more recent efforts like the Universal action movie based on Doom starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, didn't fare as well as some expected, and who could forget (as hard as one might try) the dog Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever? (The fact that it's written by the guy that wrote Swordfish isn't a very good sign that this will be winning any writing awards either.) It's doubtful that the "Hitman" video game series, which consists of the original PC game which debuted in 2000 and three sequels which were multi-platform, ever got as popular or widespread as the "Doom" or "Resident Evil" games, although the recent release of the three later games over the summer could generate new interest for the movie's release.
The trailers and advertising campaign for the movie have been great, keeping things somewhat vague, showing lots of cool images but not necessarily giving away a lot of the plot or showing lots of action sequences, which might make some moviegoers wonder if this is going to be another case of style over substance. Originally, the movie was scheduled to come out during the summer but then it was moved a few times before winding up on the less than ideal Thanksgiving weekend, not a wise move, since most of the R-rated movies that have done well in this weekend have had appeal across a lot of demographics like the Robert Redford-Brad Pitt espionage thriller Spy Game and M. Night Shyamalan's Unbreakable, the follow-up to the blockbuster The Sixth Sense. By comparison, Hitman is only going to hold any interest for the guys that played the video games.
As has been the case with many of 20th Century Fox's movies this year, the studio didn't screen the movie until the last minute and asking reviews to be held, maybe because they realize there's little that critics can say that might help the movie but a lot that might detract any males that might be interested in seeing it from seeing it. Still, while Hitman will probably beat Stephen King's The Mist on Wednesday and maybe even Thursday, by the weekend, it's likely to taper off as the teen video game fanatics will have already rushed out to see it and word-of-mouth will have already spread online whether it's worth wasting any time seeing it in theatres. (Put it this way, the 15% the movie has received on RottenTomatoes is not a very good sign of quality.)
Why I Should See It: Timothy Olyphant kicked ass as the bad guy in Life Free or Die Hard and he should be just as impressive as an assassin.
Why Not: How many people will know this is based on a video game and how many will care?
Projections: $6 to 8 million on Wednesday and Thursday, $12 to 14 million over the three-day weekend ($17 to 19 million five-day) and roughly $35 million total.
This Christmas (Sony/Screen Gems)
Starring Delroy Lindo, Idris Elba, Loretta Devine, Chris Brown, Keith Robinson, Laz Alonso, Columbus Short, Sharon Leal, Lauren London, Mekhi Phifer, Regina King
Written and directed by Preston A. Whitmore II (Crossover, writer of Fled, Civil Brand, Lockdown)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Holiday
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "You can't exchange family." (Which is too bad since anyone who sees this movie about a dysfunctional family won't be getting their money back!)
Plot Summary: The entire Whitfield family has reunited for Christmas, but most of them have baggage and secrets, which all come out over the holiday festivities.
Mini-Review: Granted, I'm the wrong ethnicity to fully appreciate this movie, but the movie's slick production values that make it look far better than similar fare—Tyler Perry, please take note—and the talented (and in some cases, super-sexy) ensemble cast, are wasted on material that's ridiculously corny, sappy and disjointed. One should definitely go into this with lowered expectations (or an abundance of holiday spirits in their system) because neither the drama nor the humor come from any realistic place as everyone hams it up and takes the drama extremely over-the-top trying to make more out of Whitmore's weak script than what's there. Some of the worst scenes include one in a club where a member of the family pulls a gun on someone, an incident that gets little more than casual finger-wagging from his family, and another one where Regina King whips her naked, cheating husband with a belt, something that seems wholly inappropriate in its attempt to get laughs from it. The film also shoehorns in a crime plot involving two gangsters who may have initially been intended to add some drama or tension to the story, but end up more as comic relief, complete with whimsical soundtrack as they beat up on Idris Elba. Most of the decisions that went into making this movie seem questionable as it very much tries to follow the formula created by Tyler Perry without having any original ideas with any real sustenance. If the movie weren't painfully long already, Whitmore decides to include not one but two extended dance sequences for the cast to show off their moves, the last one being almost ten minutes long before the end credits even begin to roll… And yet, the single white actress in the movie wasn't invited to take part in that apparently. "This Christmas" is another tragically banal step backwards in black filmmaking that looks to keep it from ever being taken seriously despite all the hard work done by pioneers like Spike Lee. Rating: 4/10
Every Thanksgiving, there's at least one obligatory holiday-related movie that ends up doing a ridiculous amount of business, whether it's last year's Deck the Halls or Christmas with the Kranks the year before, and while Warner Bros.' Fred Claus will probably try to be this year's big Thanksgiving holiday movie, the movie will only have an appeal to a certain demographic, and few African-Americans will have any interest in a Vince Vaughn vehicle. With that in mind, it's a wise move for Sony/Screen Gems to offer a bit of counter-programming for the audiences that will probably have little interest in the other white-bread offerings in theatres this weekend.
This holiday ensemble dramedy, which comes off like The Family Stone with an all African-American cast, is helmed by Preston A. Whitmore, directing his second major feature film for Sony/Screen Gems after last year's poorly received street ball drama Crossover starring Anthony Mackie. Before then, Whitmore wrote a lot of urban crime dramas like Fled and Lockdown, but with This Christmas, Whitmore breaks away from his "gangsta roots" and does something more for the African-American families out Christmas shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend who'll want a movie to see together. He's assembled an impressive ensemble cast of some of the finest African-American stars who offer something for a vast array of age groups.
The two actors in the cast who've probably found the most success outside African-American audiences are Delroy Lindo, who's also of the film's producers, and Regina King. King co-starred in Sandra Bullock's two Miss Congeniality movies, but more importantly, she starred in How Stella Got Her Groove Back, the first Friday movie and in John Singleton's Poetic Justice and Boyz ‘n the Hood, all of which have had long-term appeal among African-American moviegoers. Lindo has starred in dozens of action movies and television shows making him one of the more recognizable black character actors, although in this, he plays a more grounded character, being the live-in boyfriend of the family matriarch played by Loretta Devine, an equally talented character actress who appeared in Paul Haggis' Crash, but more memorably, played Adele Webber on "Grey's Anatomy" for half a season. Like Lindo, she's an African-American actor who's been seen everywhere and who always leaves a lasting impression even if we don't know her name. (Her character in the movie is called "Ma Dear", which sounds a bit like Tyler Perry's beloved character "Madea." Coincidence?)
Mekhi Phifer, who appeared in Eminem's 8 Mile, another one of the film's producers also has a key role, as does Idris Elba, who starred in Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls earlier this year after a successful run on the popular HBO drama "The Wire." The biggest draws for the movie, at least among younger audiences, will be Columbus Short and Chris Brown, each of whom have found fans in other avenues of entertainment, Short with his choreography and dancing in movies like You Got Served and Stomp the Yard, both huge urban hits for Screen Gems, and 18-year-old Chris Brown is a hugely successful R ‘n' B star, whose first single debuted at #1 on the Billboard charts and has created a younger fanbase with his platinum-selling album and his own appearance in Stomp the Yard. Playing a non-singing role is Keith Robinson, one of the stars of last year's Dreamgirls, and he's joined by the gorgeous Sharon Leal, who also had a small role in that musical, but who appeared more recently in Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?.
It's a really solid cast that can offer something for everyone among the African-American movie-going community, although the chances of this movie crossing over to white audiences is since it's geared more towards the tastes of African-American audiences, much like Tyler Perry's movies. That isn't necessarily a bad thing because they'll be looking for movies to see over Thanksgiving weekend as well, although this will probably be the slowest builder of the week, making a lot more money on Friday and Saturday than on Wednesday or Thursday, but then it only has a few weeks to capitalize on being the only black holiday movie before The Perfect Holiday shows up and tries to take some of its business.
Why I Should See It: You're looking to see a movie about a more dysfunctional family than your own.
Why Not: Spending Thanksgiving with your own family will probably be a lot more fun than spending any amount of time with this one.
Projections: $3 to 4 million on Wednesday and Thursday, another $7 to 9 million on the weekend ($10 to 12 million in the five days) and roughly $25 million total.
August Rush (Warner Bros.)
Starring Freddie Highmore, Keri Russell, Jonathan Rhys Meyers, Terrence Howard, Robin Williams
Directed by Kirsten Sheridan (co-writer of Jim Sheridan's In America); Written by Nick Castle (Hook, Escape from New York, James V. Hart (Hook, The Last Mimzy, Tuck Everlasting, Sahara, Muppet Treasure Island)
Genre: Drama, Fantasy, Musical
Rated PG
Tagline: "An incredible journey moving at the speed of sound."
Plot Summary: A fateful encounter one night between a cellist (Keri Russell) and an Irish rock singer (Jonathan Rhys Meyers) produces a baby that's given up for adoption but ten years later, their son Evan (Freddie Highmore) runs away from the orphanage and winds up in New York City's Washington Square Park, where he comes under the protection of a man named Wizard (Robin Williams) who cultivates the talent of homeless kids in order to make money from their talent.
Mini-Review: It doesn't take long for the movie to reveal itself as an extremely contrived and predictable movie that tries to tug on the heartstrings with the story of a talented young boy who defies all odds in order to try to find his long-lost parents. The problem is that it's not just a matter of suspending disbelief for this saccharine musical fantasy, but you have to completely disregard any sense of the realms of reality while watching an unrealistic musical story unfold in the very real setting of New York City's streets. Just the premise of a classical cellist and a rock musician meeting and having a one-night fling, let alone that neither of them would use protection, is bad enough, but Freddie Highmore further wears out his welcome by playing the same mopey character he's done in every other movie, only this time playing acoustic guitar in an unconventional way that grates on the nerves so much that you can't imagine anyone falling for such a silly gimmick. And what kind of "stage name" is "August Rush" anyway? Just the thought of someone coming up with that and thinking that it sounds cool shows how out of touch the producers of this movie really are. Easily the worst casting decision of the year, if not ever, is Robin Williams as Wizard, an attempt at giving Fagan from "Oliver Twist" a downtown New York twist, but Williams takes the role far too seriously, and is so laughably bad as he tries to act like a tough guy in his leather outfit, that it further takes one out of the movie's fantasy nature. Neither Kerri Russell nor Jonathan Rhys Meyers do much to break away from their own limitations as actors, but the whole thing ends in the most predictable way possible for this type of movie, and again, one that requires one to completely throw out any conventions of credibility. Even so, if you've seen the commercials or the trailer you already know how it ends. The sad fact is that the younger Sheridan just isn't a very good filmmaker and there's a lot of careless filmmaking in play here, like when August Rush is playing his guitar and we see a close-up of the hands on the guitar neck, which are clearly those of a larger (and hairier) adult. What really gets my goat and is unforgivable about this contrived paint-by-numbers musical drama is that pales in comparison to the excellent Swiss film Vitus, a movie that was completely ignored by the audiences who'll probably swoon over this movie while ignoring a far superior film about a musical prodigy. Rating: 3.5/10
Thanksgiving weekend is often when studios release movies that don't seem to fit into any other time period and that certainly seems to be the case with this musical drama starring an eclectic cast including Freddie Highmore, Robin Williams, Keri Russell, Terrence Howard and Jonathan Rhys Myers, a movie that will finally appease that one guy in the universe who has asked the question, "When are those five actors going to make a movie together?" Certainly, no Hollywood producer could have come up with that combination and thought that it could possibly make any money, but obviously, whoever produced this movie is very out of touch with reality. That said, this musical fantasy is the directorial debut by Kirsten Sheridan, daughter of the Irish Oscar winner Jim Sheridan, who collaborated with her father on the Oscar-nominated screenplay for In America, and it stars the ever-present Freddie Highmore who followed memorable roles in Marc Forster's Finding Neverland and Tim Burton's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, with Ridley Scott's A Good Year and Luc Besson's animated family film Arthur and the Invisibles, two movies that tanked so badly that one wonders if Highmore may already be a has-been at the age of 15. In this, he plays an orphaned musical prodigy trying to find his parents, played by the former "Felicity" Keri Russell, who received a lot of accolades for her performance in the late Adrien Shelley's Waitress, and Jonathan Rhys Meyers, who starred in Woody Allen's acclaimed crime-thriller Match Point a few years ago and has been seen regularly as the star of the Showtime series "The Tudors." Sadly, Robin Williams offers the film's only true star power in a secondary role to the other three characters, a character like Fagan from "Oliver Twist", who acts as the main baddie in the movie, and there's also a supporting role by actor Terrence Howard, making his third appearance of the fall season, his fourth being next week's Awake.
The musical nature of the movie and its soundtrack album will play a large factor in the movie's marketing, because it includes new songs from John Legend and from John Ondrasik of the popular band Five for Fighting, with three songs sung by Jonathan Rhys Meyers. Supposedly, there are songs on the soundtrack by people not named John, but it's an eclectic mix of musical genres from rock to classical and gospel. (There even was a recent charity concert in New York City with some of the key musical contributors performing in order to support the arts, particularly the prestigious New York music academy Julliard.)
Obviously, "August Rush" is going to be of most interest to young musicians and its PG-rating certainly could make it enticing to family audiences over the holidays, but the fantasy and romance elements will probably hold more interest to young girls, who will likely be more drawn to Disney's Enchanted, leaving this movie floundering for business by trying to offer counter-programming in a busy weekend where it's the weakest offering. While one can look back just two years and compare this to the musical movie Rent which did huge business on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, but it then quickly tanked off for the weekend, holding the dubious title of being the most frontloaded Thanksgiving weekend movie ever. Maybe the music will help this movie over the holiday, but seriously, how many musical movies set in New York City does anyone possibly need in one weekend?
Why I Should See It: A musical fantasy is certainly different from the four other offerings this weekend. (And I don't want to be the only person to have suffered through this, so you should all see it to share in my misery.)
Why Not: I think my mini-review above says it all, but one expects that anyone who'd go see this will be just as likely to go see "Enchanted" instead.
Projections: $2 to 4 million on Wednesday and Thursday and another $6 to 7 million over the weekend (about $9 million for the five days) but less than $20 million total.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
I'm Not There (The Weinstein Co.)
Starring Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett, Richard Gere, Heath Ledger, Bruce Greenwood, Marcus Carl Franklin, Ben Whishaw, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Julianne Moore, David Cross, Michelle Williams
Written and directed by Todd Haynes (Safe, Velvet Goldmine, Far from Heaven)
Genre Music, Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: The life and music of Bob Dylan is explored by indie filmmaker Todd Haynes, using six actors to portray the various guises and persona of the legendary music icon.
Review (Coming Soon, hopefully)
It's taken me over two months and two viewings to get around to reviewing the new movie from Todd Haynes, a filmmaker who I've admired greatly ever since I first saw Velvet Goldmine, as he seemed to be one of the few modern filmmakers who really understood the power of music and its appeal to fans. The reason this film has been so difficult to review or even explain is that it's far from the conventional music-related movies we've seen in the past. It's not a documentary, nor a biopic, and not having been a Bob Dylan fan even in the slightest when I first saw it, it completely surprised me by how much I really loved what Haynes was doing with this enigmatic rock icon when given the chance.
Surely by now, everyone has already seen the trailer or the clip featuring Cate Blanchett as the "Blonde on Blonde" rock star era Dylan and heard how this performance will probably get Blanchett another nomination, but that's only part of what winds up being a rich tapestry of storytelling and cutting edge visuals that shows many aspects of Dylan's life and persona through the work of a very talented cast and an exceptional script that takes quotes liberally from Dylan but puts the words and songs in a very different context.
After seeing the movie twice, I downloaded the three disc "Dylan" collection that was recently released and I had to get the soundtrack for the movie as soon as it became available because I loved the versions of Dylan songs done in the movie by Sonic Youth, Cat Power and others. That's how much of an impact this film had on me when I saw it, that I was so intrigued by what Haynes was doing that I felt like I had to learn more about Dylan. The fact that this movie can get someone who never thought much of Dylan to pick up albums and become more fascinated with the man, his music and the obsessive fascination that so many fans and musicians have with him, is a true testament to the strength of Haynes' work.
"I'm Not There" opens in 130 theatres in select cities on Wednesday and should be able to bring in just over a million dollars in its first five days, but it's highly recommended if you've ever even been remotely interested in Bob Dylan's music and want to see how it's influenced one of today's most artistic filmmakers.
Also in Limited Release:
Nina's Heavenly Delights (Regent/Here! Films) - A romantic comedy about an Indo-Scottish woman who's forced to take over the family Curry House after her father dies, but things get complicated when she falls for the woman to whom her father sold the other 50% of the restaurant. It opens at the Regent Showcase Theatre in L.A. on Wednesday.
Everything's Cool (City Lights/Red Envelope) - After debuting at the Sundance Film Festival, this "toxic comedy about global warming" (actually a documentary) from Daniel Gold and Judith Helfand follows a group of activists trying to raise awareness about global warming before it's too late. Presumably funnier than "The 11th Hour," the movie will open in New York and L.A. on Friday.
Mini-Review: Somewhat more dated and less intellectual than Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio's global warming movies, but far lighter and more entertaining as it shows normal people, rather than merely politicians and scientists, dealing with the very real dangers facing the earth. It does take the subject far more seriously than its "toxic comedy" label might presume, giving a thorough history of the research and debates that have surrounded the issue from different points-of-view including a Park City "snow groomer" trying to make his own biodiesel and the Weather Channel's first climate expert Heidi Collins whose role suddenly gets more serious after the devastating events of Hurricane Katrina. The movie also deals with the controversy surrounding Roland Emmerich's 2004 blockbuster "The Day after Tomorrow" and another one when a former energy industry lobbyist blew the whistle on the government officials who would edit and filter scientific research about climate change and the damage to the earth. The film is composed of a series of interviews and footage from various political shows, many of which aired long before "An Inconvenient Truth" brought the issue to the masses. Director Daniel Gold may not have been the best person to narrate the film as his voice doesn't command the authority needed to get the film's point across and the low-fi animation does very little to help, but in terms of explaining global warming to laymen and a younger crowd, the film may actually be more effective than the more serious approach taken by other docs. Rating: 8/10
Midnight Eagle (Strand) - Izuru Narushima's adaptation of the novel by Tetsuo Takashima about a war photographer looking for the crash of a U.S. bomber called the "Midnight Eagle" in order to retrieve the nuclear warhead that was on board before it explodes. It opens at the ImaginAsian Theatre in New York on Friday and in L.A. on December 7.
Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) - Frank Langella plays Leonard Schiller, an aging author trying to finish one more novel before dying, in Andrew (The Talent Given Us) Wagner's adaptation of Brian Morton's novel, which also stars Lili Taylor and Lauren Ambrose from "Six Feet Under" as his daughter and a grad student who try to help him reach his goal. After playing at various festivals this year including Sundance and Toronto, it opens in New York and L.A. this Friday.
Mini-Review: Frank Langella and Lili Taylor give great performances in what is essentially another painfully slow and bland digitally-shot indie drama that offers two concurrent stories, neither which offers very much of immediate interest as it jumps back and forth between them not giving the viewer a chance to settle into either. The relationship between Langella's older writer and Lauren Ambrose's eager student is hard to stomach, and for the most part, it's hard to determine why Schiller would have anything to do with this demanding young woman. Ambrose isn't able to keep up with Langella in their scenes together, and her poorly-developed character is so unlikable and annoying that it's impossible to appreciate their many scenes together. Because of this, it's more interesting to watch Lili Taylor try to come to terms with being single in her '40s and being in love with a man (Adrian Lester) who doesn't want the same things from life that she does, but even that is a bit of typical indie high drama that would probably have been more interesting as a stageplay than a film. While the first hour or so is very boring and disjointed, things do improve once the stories start to converge and the scenes between Langella, Taylor and Lester in the last act tend to make-up for earlier problems, but by then, most people will have already turned off and tuned out. Rating: 5.5/10
Next week, the month of November comes to a close with just one movie in wide release, that being the medical thriller Awake, starring Jessica Alba and Hayden Christiansen. The Weekend Warrior is thinking of taking the weekend off to recuperate from the last few weeks, but we'll see how that goes.
Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas