My original predictions are here in case you want to compare them. Not too many changes since last time, as I've only seen a few more contenders, but there was a pretty major shake-up going on in the actress category when it was rumored that Cate Blanchett was being moved to the Lead Actress category, taking her away from being the frontrunner in the supporting category. That rumor was squashed in less than 24 hours.
Picture:
Still a tough race to predict without having seen a few key movies that won't screen until later this week and next week, but I do think there are at least three of the five movies I picked that will find enough dedicated fans to keep them going through the long haul. Right now, I can't say there's any sort of frontrunner and those last two slots are likely to change on a weekly basis, but Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has been finding many fans, maybe enough to move into that fourth slot, and it's very much the type of Oscar fare that's done very well at the awards despite being in another language.
The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage)
Atonement (Focus)
No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax)
American Gangster (Universal)
Alts: 3:10 to Yuma, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, Once, Charlie Wilson's War
Director:
Not too much change here except there's a chance that at least one of the director nominees won't match-up with the Best Picture contenders, maybe two.
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
Joe Wright - Atonement
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alts: Sidney Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, James Mangold - 3:10 to Yuma, Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd, Sean Penn - Into the Wild, David Fincher - Zodiac
Actor:
Having finally seen There Will Be Blood, I can back up the support that Day-Lewis has been getting in this category although things are looking dicier for the likes of James McAvoy even as people start to see Atonement and are impressed with his performance. Benicio Del Toro might have troubles at this point with Things We Lost in the Fire having bombed so badly, but there are a lot of screeners out there for those who want to see it, and it's very much a movie in the vein of In the Bedroom.
Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Matthieu Almaric - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Benicio Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
Alts: James McAvoy - Atonement, Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd, Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah, Steve Carell - Dan in Real LIfe
Actress:
What used to be one of the easiest categories to predict year-in and year-out got interesting for about 24 hours when Cate Blanchett was rumored to have been moved from the supporting category into the Lead Actress, which would have shaken things up and made it harder for the likes of Ellen Page and Julie Christie to get in with less flashy performances. (Those rumors were squashed in less than 24 hours.) In the meantime, Amy Adams continues to get a ground swell of support with the success of Enchanted over Thanksgiving weekend as well, which most people agree is notable merely for her performance, much like Meryl Streep in Devil Wears Prada last year.
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Amy Adams - Enchanted
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Laura Linney - The Savages
Alts: Ellen Page - Juno, , Kiera Knightley - Atonement, Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd, Halle Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire
Supporting Actor:
This category is starting to shape up as more people see the possible choices and screeners are becoming more readily available to those who vote on awards. Paul Dano's performance in There Will Be Blood is a shoe-in for a nomination, and it might start edging out some of the less memorable performances. For now, the old-timers like Hal Holbrook and Tom Wilkinson still stand a chance of getting into the race but this is still Javier Bardem's category to win. A late-breaking entry is Philip Seymour Hoffman for Mike Nichols' Charlie Wilson's War and he'll be competing with the two old-timers Holbrook and Wilkinson for the last two slots.
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Alts: Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton, Homayon Ershadi - The Kite Runner, Ben Foster - 3:10 to Yuma, Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Supporting Actress:
Were the rumors of Cate Blanchett being removed from this category after months of being considered the frontrunner to be true, it would have opened things up for both of Atonement's actresses, newcomer Saoirse Ronan and veteran Vanessa Redgrave, to get nominated, but she's back in place, which means there's a bit of a fight for two places with The Diving Bell's Emanuelle Seigner and Tilda Swinton cutting into Atonement's chances for two nominations.
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Saorsie Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
(Emmanuelle Seigner - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Alts: Kelly MacDonald - No Country for Old Men, Susan Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah
Original Screenplay:
This one still seems to be between Tony Gilroy and Diablo Cody although there are a few other strong screenplays that might keep comedies like Ratatouille and Knocked Up from getting in. This might be the only place where Sidney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead gets its just deserts.
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Juno - Diablo Cody
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead - Kelly Masterson
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
Knocked Up - Judd Apatow
Alts: Things We Lost in the Fire - Allan Loeb, Ratatouille - Brad Bird
Adapted Screenplay:
This continues to be where most of the screenplays attached to the Best Pictures will wind up, no news there, but it's a very crowded field right now with a lot of possibilities of an upset as its a three-way race with a lot of others bubbling under. The question is whether there's a chance for two foreign language films by English speaking screenwriters to get nominated, and there might be a battle for the fifth slot by two late-breaking movies from P.T. Anderson and Aaron Sorkin.
No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ron Harwood
The Kite Runner - David Benioff
There Will be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Alts: Charlie Wilson's War - Aaron Sorkin, American Gangster - Steve Zaillian, 3:10 to Yuma - Halstedt Welles/Michael Brandt/Derek Haas, Into the Wild - Sean Penn
Animated:
Pixar's Ratatouille and the Iranian film Persepolis seem like sure things so it's just a matter of filling that last slot, which is more likely to go to Robert Zemeckis' Beowulf because of it's cutting edge use of technology than the other choices.
Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar)
Persepolis (Sony Classics)
Beowulf (Paramount)
That's about how things look for now, but check back in roughly a month where we'll have an update probably with a bit more info about each of the choices, and in the meantime, you can check out my ever-changing choices at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, which will be updated weekly.
