Director:

In past years, these have followed very closely with the Best Picture nominations even though there have been a number of surprises when directors have been nominated without their movies like Fernando Meirelles for City of God a few years back. If that were to happen this year, there's a chance it will go to one of the often neglected directors like Sidney Lumet, Tim Burton or Ridley Scott, even if their movies don't have enough support to get into the Best PIcture category.

Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
Joe Wright - Atonement
Sidney Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
James Mangold - 3:10 to Yuma

Alts: Sean Penn - Into the Wild, Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd, David Fincher - Zodiac, Ridley Scott - American Gangster

Actor:

While this category has gotten ridiculously crowded with far too many options once again, there are a few sure things already this year including George Clooney and Emil Hirsch, who have been blowing away anyone who's seen their movies. While "Things We Lost in the Fire" seems to have died at the box office, the abundance of screeners will help get Benicio his first leading actor nomination as well.

Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Benicio Del Toro - Things We Lost in the Fire
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
James McAvoy - Atonement

Alts: Matthieu Almaric - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd, Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah, Steve Carell - Dan in Real LIfe

Actress:

It's pretty sad when many of the best female acting performances of the year took place before July, but that certainly seems to be the case here with Marion Cotillard's performance as Edith Piaf likely to be remembered and reminded of to those who don't. There are a few returning candidates like Halle Berry and Kiera Knightley, who might get bumped out since it's so soon after their last movie, but young Ellen Page, who many have seen and loved in "Juno", might bump some of them out. Still, she might have a lot more competition at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy category both from Cotillard, Helena Bonham Carter and 2006 supporting actress nominee Amy Adams, who those who've seen "Enchanted" say is worthy.

Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Ellen Page - Juno
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Halle Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire

Alts: Laura Linney - The Savages, Amy Adams - Enchanted, Kiera Knightley - Atonement, Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd

Supporting Actor:

Another fairly open category still, although there are definitely a number of memorable performances that are being mentioned a lot, some in movies that might be considered in the Best Picture category, others not. This seems like the year where Arab and other Middle Eastern actors might get their due in this category.

Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood

Alts: Homayon Ershadi - The Kite Runner, Ben Foster - 3:10 to Yuma, Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Supporting Actress:

A tougher year in this category, especially if the Weinstein Company puts Cate Blanchett here for her cross-dressing performance as Dylan in Todd Haynes' "I'm Not There" where she might have competition from a couple veterans and one or two newbies like Amy Ryan, but would likely win merely on the strength of that performance.

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Saorsie Ronan - Atonement

Alts: Kelly MacDonald - No Country for Old Men, Susan Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah, Meryl Streep - Lions for Lambs

Original Screenplay:

Like the other categories, there are a number of frontrunners that have been on everyone's tongue (essentially, the first three on the list) and then there are others that play up to the Academy writers' past choices like the latest from Brad Bird and Judd Apatow. This is a much less crowded category than past years, though.

Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Juno - Diablo Cody
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead - Kelley Masterson
Things We Lost in the Fire - Allan Loeb
Ratatouille - Brad Bird

Alts: The Savages - Tamara Jenkins, Knocked Up - Judd Apatow, I'm Not There - Todd Haynes (or maybe this will be considered adapted?)

Adapted Screenplay:

A lot of popular bestselling novels have been turned into movies this Oscar season, and they're very likely to be the frontrunners in this category unless something like the screenplay for the "3:10 to Yuma" remake or Steve Zaillian's "American Gangster" can sneak in, rather than the French language "Diving Bell."

No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
The Kite Runner - David Benioff
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ron Harwood

Alts: 3:10 to Yuma - Halstedt Welles/Michael Brandt/Derek Haas, American Gangster - Steve Zaillian, There Will be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson, Charlie Wilson's War - Aaron Sorkin

Animated:

There aren't nearly as many strong animated movies this year as last and while Pixar's latest and Persepolis are almost guaranteed placement, so the third slot will either go to Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie (which has not received overwhelmingly good reviews) or more likely, The Simpsons Movie.

Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar)
Persepolis (Sony Classics)
The Simpsons Movie (Fox)

Alt: Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount)

That's about how things look for now, but check back in roughly a month where we'll have an update probably with a bit more info about each of the choices, and in the meantime, you can check out my ever-changing choices at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, which will be updated weekly.