In Theatres or Out Soon

Those looking to get some idea what movies are being talked about for potential awards can see many of them for themselves as they are currently playing in theaters or will be out soon. (I'm so late on the second part of this Oscar Preview that most of these movies will already be out by the time you read this or are already on their way to DVD.)

One of the major Oscar movies I missed in our last installment while talking about festival season was the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men (Miramax), which was first screened at the Cannes Film Festival, starting a run of rave reviews that continued through the Toronto Film Festival and New York Film Festivals in the last few months. (Currently, it's 95% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, making it one of the best reviewed movies of the year.) Joel and Ethan Coen have earned a lot of respect from the Academy in their illustrious career, most notably in 1997 with their crime drama Fargo, although that time, Joel had to take the sole directing career due to DGA regulations even though the brothers shared an Oscar for the screenplay. This will be the first time where they'll both have their names credited for direction, and they are more than likely to be nominated there as well as for their adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's original novel. The performance in the movie that leaves the most lasting impression on viewers is that of previous nominee Javier Bardem for his role as the quiet killer Anton Chigurh, and he's likely to not only get into the race, but right now, he's the strongest contender to win in the supporting actor category, getting Bardem his first Oscar. Josh Brolin might have a tougher time in the lead category despite having a great year between his role in this movie and his supporting part in Ridley Scott's American Gangster (see below). With the three most important nominations under its belt and probably a good amount of technical nominations including Roger Deakins, who will likely win the Oscar for the cinematography, this has been on many short lists for a Best Picture nomination and it's likely to get a SAG ensemble nomination in the bargain, although the vague ending might annoy some older Oscar voters who might prefer something a bit more straightforward. Either way, expect this to be a frontrunner in many of the regional critics awards handed out before Oscar nominations are due, which will get a lot more people interested in seeing the movie after its impressive theatrical run in limited and moderately wide release.

James Mangold's remake of the 1957 Western 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) kicked off the Fall movie season with a minor hit, one that's gained solid critical raves with an 87% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. It features one of notable performances by Russell Crowe, who seems to be on the comeback trail after a couple unfortunate years, killing Cinderella Man's Oscar chances with a poorly-timed toss of a telephone. While his last pairing with Ridley Scott, A Good Year tanked, Crowe has been in two of the bigger movies of the fall season (see below) but it might still be too early for the Academy to put him back in their graces. While it's not often that a remake of a classic film gets recognized at the Oscars, James Mangold's Walk the Line was very well received in 2005, and while it won Reese Witherspoon her first Oscar and got Joaquin Phoenix a Golden Globe and an Oscar nomination, the film itself and Mangold's direction were sorely neglected. It's a solid Western that's likely to get one of Lionsgate's big Oscar pushes, helped by the release of the DVD just before nominations are due, and its best chances are for the adapted screenplay by Michael Brandt and Derek Haas, but if it does get that and a director's nod, then one of the coveted Best Picture slots is in the bag. Either way, it should get some technical awards and win over the older male Academy members who've shown appreciation for the genre in the past.

Ben Affleck's directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), which he also co-wrote, adapted from a popular novel by Dennis Lehane (author of Mystic River) has gotten a lot of favorable reviews, and though critics, especially in Boston, might get behind the movie, the best chance it has for awards recognition is for the performance by New Yorker Amy Ryan, who is so convincing as a partying neglectful Mom from Boston that even the local extras didn't realize she wasn't from the area. Her performance is probably the most memorable thing about the movie and since Ben's brother Casey is more likely to get attention for his performance in The Assassination of Jesse James. (The adapted screenplay category is just way too crowded for Affleck to get his second Oscar nomination for writing.)

Already on its way out of theatres is James Gray's We Own the Night features a strong police drama plot from the maker of The Yards and strong dramatic performances from Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix, although the movie seems to be so low-profile that it doesn't stand a chance against the movies that are getting a stronger studio push.

Even though it's in a similar vein, a lot more pundits and critics are showering accolades on Ridley Scott's crime drama American Gangster, maybe because it's so easy to compare it to Martin Scorsese's The Departed, which took the top prize last year. Granted, Ridley Scott has been nominated three times for his work by the Academy, including for the Best Picture winner Gladiator, so there's a good chance that he might do so again, although this movie's scope isn't nearly as massive as some of his previous work. Then again, it's quite an achievement to tell this story at all, which is why the screenplay by Steven Zaillian, adapted and expanded from a news article by Mark Jacobson, might get one of the coveted Adapted Screenplay nominations, although one of the film's characters, Ritchie Roberts, is claiming the story to not be accurate. That didn't hurt Akiva Goldsman's screenplay for A Beautiful Mind, which won that prize the same year that American Gangster stars Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe went up against each other in the Lead Actor category. In that year, Washington came out on top to win his first Lead Actor Oscar, and some people feel that this role is worthy of another nomination for him, but it's a tough category, and it's more likely that Crowe would get a rare supporting nomination for the movie. The amount of money the movie has made so far (over $115 million) is a good sign how much interest there is in the movie, and most reviews and word-of-mouth have generally been good, giving it a strong chance of getting into the Best Picture race, especially since it will appeal to the male driven technical members of the Academy. Who knows whether the internet leak of the movie might actually help its awards chances since a lot of people will have seen it even before the millions who saw it in theaters, but even so, if it does happen to get into the Best Picture race, it's very likely to be the top grosser in the category. It's definitely in the Top 6 or 7 options to get into the Best Picture category especially following so closely on the heels of The Departed, and with almost guaranteed support from SAG and the producers' guild, it may move into the Big 5 quicker than some might think.

Susanne Bier's last Danish movie After the Wedding was nominated for a Foreign Language Oscar earlier this year, but her first English language film Things We Lost in the Fire (DreamWorks) suffered a crushing defeat at the box office despite starring two prominent Oscar winners in Ms. Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro. Many feel that Berry gives as good or better a performance in this heavy drama as she did in Monster's Ball, but her co-star Benicio Del Toro is more likely to get his first Leading Actor nomination after winning a supporting Oscar for Steven Soderbergh's Traffic and being nominated a few years later for 21 Grams. Undaunted by the pitiful box office showing, DreamWorks had DVD screeners of the movie on Academy and guild members' doorstep almost day-and-date of its theatrical release, so there's a good chance that enough people will watch it to give it the attention it deserves.

Peter Hedges' second movie, the ensemble comedy Dan in Real Life (Touchstone), has been one of the sleeper hits of the fall, not really exploding at the box office but bringing in consistent business. Although it hasn't really had much talk about its chances at winning awards, maybe because it's a lighter romantic comedy, it is a crowd-pleasing film ala Lars and the Real Girl (see Part 1) and one would expect that Disney/Touchstone might put some money into getting Steve Carell recognized for his semi-dramatic performance. Look for Carell to get his first Golden Globe as a film actor in the comedy/musical category, and though Hedges has many fans in the writers' segment of the Academy that might give him their support like they did in 2003 where he was nominated for his adaptation of About a Boy, the original screenplay category is already so over-crowded with seemingly sure things that this would get lost in the shuffle.

Many have claimed that Amy Adams' cheery singing and dancing performance in Disney's Enchanted is Oscar-worthy, and it's likely to get her a Golden Globe nomination in the Comedy/Musical category—a tough category against La Vie en Rose's Marion Cotillard, Juno's Ellen Page and others. Either way, it's not often that children or family films get attention from Oscar voters because they might see it more as kids' stuff. (Put it this way, Anne Hathway never got nominated for her performance for the first Princess Diaries movie either, nor either Lindsay Lohan or Jamie Lee Curtis for Freaky Friday.) Then again, it is a musical, a film genre that has gotten a lot of attention around Oscar time, and if Adams does get into the Final 5, she'll be joining a nomination for one of the film's original songs at the Oscars.

Opening earlier this month, Robert Redford's political war drama Lions for Lambs (United Artists), which features strong performances from Tom Cruise and Oscar regular Meryl Streep. The film is getting generally mixed reviews, and the strong script by Matthew Michael Carnahan might be too political and polarizing for stodgy Academy members, and his name might just be too new to win favor with his fellow writers. The performances are strong but Cruise, Redford and Streep are all being put into supporting categories due to the ensemble nature of the film, with Cruise having way too much baggage to repeat his supporting nomination for Magnolia. This also just might not be the year for Streep to add another nomination to her lengthy list.

The only good thing that one might say about Andrew Wagner's indie drama Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) is that it features a stellar leading performance by Frank Langella. The movie's low profile is not likely to get it much attention, especially in such a crowded field, but one can expect Langella to get his long-deserved nomination and possibly win for Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon next year instead.

Opening this week is Tamara Jenkins' dark comedy The Savages (Fox Searchlight), which debuted at Sundance and then waited most of the year for its release, but it has received a lot of accolades for the performances by the always great Laura Linney and Philip Seymour Hoffman and Jenkins' script, which is reminiscent of the work of Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, the Oscar-winning writers of Sideways who were executive producers on Jenkins' film. Although Hoffman gives another strong performance, it's not quite the breakthrough of Capote so it's more likely that Laura Linney will be getting the attention for playing a character very different from her norm, though similar to her Oscar-nominated performance in Bill Condon's Kinsey. It would be the first Leading Actress nomination for the prolific and well-liked actress if she gets in. The only other potential acting nomination might go to Phil Bosco as their crotchety dementia-suffering father, adding to the growing list of veteran actors honored by an Academy who love honoring the older generation in this category.

One of the movies likely to tug at the heartstrings of Academy and Golden Globe voters is The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) based on the hugely successful novel by Khaled Hosseini which resided in the New York Times bestseller seemingly for years. (Not to mention a regular offering at Starbucks everywhere). It's been turned into a gripping and moving film directed by Marc Forster of Finding Neverland from an adapted screenplay by David Benioff (25th Hour). Neither of these prolific filmmakers have ever been nominated for an Oscar, something that will be rectified with this movie. What's interesting is that being mostly in a foreign language, it's likely to be shunted off to that category at the Golden Globes. That sort of move didn't hurt Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima last year, which made the final 5 without being listed in either Best Picture category at the Globes. Although critics will probably be mixed on the movie by its nature, much like Babel and Crash in years before, you can't discount the film's powerful emotional experience that will win over many Academy voters including the technical members who will be impressed by Forster's impressive camera and CG work. Whether it might get a few acting nominations is the real question because it stars many unknown actors of Middle Eastern origin, and without a single acting nomination, it will be tough to be considered a Best Picture frontrunner. The best chances might be a Supporting Actor nod to Homayon Ershadi for his performance as Amir's father, but it'll be hard to remember his name when it's time to nominate. On the other hand, Alberto Iglesias' gorgeous score is one that's very memorable, allowing the movie to have another guaranteed nomination under its belt. (Iglesias' score for Fernando Meirelles' The Constant Gardener was nominated two years ago.)

And Some More…

Every year around this time, there are movies that many consider Oscar worthy based on their cast, director, genre or pedigree without ever having seen a single frame. This year is no exception, although by the time of this writing, many of these movies are finally being screened. Some see this as a strategy by the studios to keep a few things under wraps until closer to the actual December and January nominations, but also to avoid early negative reviews that have destroyed some of the festival movies' chances at making money in theaters. (Elizabeth: the Golden Age and Rendition, please take a bow.)

A lot of times, pundits and movie writers will be raving about a movie and claiming its Oscar chances before they've seen it, based on some of the things above or based on the trailer and that's hurt a number of movies in the past including Rob Marshall's Memoirs of a Geisha and last year's infamous snub of Dreamgirls.

Even though it's still not been seen by anybody I know--scratch that! some people saw it last night--Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) is a sharp political thriller adapted by "The West Wing" creator Aaron Sorkin from "60 Minutes" producer George Criles' 2003 novel based on his 20 years of research into the 1980 Afghan War where the U.S. backed the country against the Russian invasion. It's probably going to be a clinical thriller ala last year's The Good Shepherd, although it stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, both previous winners, with key supporting roles by Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams. That sort of line-up could get strong support from the actors' branch of the Academy, particularly for Hoffman who supposedly knocks one out of the park, although it's being released after a long string of political movies ripped from the headlines that have under-delivered at the box office, the most recent example being Robert Redford's Lions for Lambs, which was quickly swatted out of the Oscar race. In this case, the genre and the nearly last-minute release might hurt the movie although Sorkin's screenplay will probably generate interest among fans of "The West Wing" who have been awaiting his next move, and the script is supposed to be excellent. Also, it's directed by film veteran Mike Nichols, who has four Oscar nominations under his belt (just like Sidney Lumet), although he won an Oscar forty years ago (wow!) for The Graduate with Dustin Hoffman. His movies tend to garner acting nominations as seen by his last movie Closer, which got Natalie Portman and Clive Owen nominations despite them having to settle for Golden Globes. This is still very much the unknown underdog in the Oscar race, which will try to win over groups like the National Board of Review by showing it mere days before voting. (Actually, early word is that it's okay, but not great, so Sorkin's script and Hoffman may be the main selling points.)

Likewise, Tim Burton's take on the Stephen Sondheim musical Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks/Paramount), which has him working with Johnny Depp and his wife Helena Bonham-Carter for what seems like the upteenth time, has been previewed but won't be screened in full until later in the week. My friend and colleague Tom O'Neil at Gold Derby claims this movie will win it at all: Best Picture, Director and Lead Actor for Depp with Bonham-Carter and Sacha Baron Cohen also getting nominations, but this is a much darker musical in the vein of Joel Schumacher's version of Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera. If you look at success on Broadway as a barometer for success during awards season, that movie should have gotten a lot more awards recognition than it did. Tim Burton has not exactly garnered fans among the Academy as he hasn't been nominated once as a director, nor has his own guild, the DGA, nominated him for any of his movies despite him having a lot of box office success. Even Big Fish or Ed Wood, which were about as close to Oscar fodder as Burton was going to get, only got one nomination each. That's not a good sign for Burton to make a difference for what is essentially a musical horror movie, and he might just have to contend with continued box office and critical success without awards.

Although James Strouse's Grace is Gone (Weinstein Co.) was picked up at the Sundance Film Festival by the Weinstein Company, it hasn't been seen by that many people but those who have say that John Cusack's performance in the movie is Oscar worthy, probably one of the reasons the Weinsteins picked it up in the first place. It went on to win the Sundance dramatic competition, an award bestowed on films like Little Miss Sunshine and Hustle and Flow in previous years. There's some question whether an Iraq War related movie might be able to escape the general ennui felt by Americans about what is going on in other countries that has hurt films like Rendition, but this movie is more about the performance, although Cusack is very much an underdog when he's balancing movies like this with more mainstream fodder like Martian Child and 1408.

Paul Thomas Anderson's fifth movie There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage/Miramax) played well at Fantastic Fest in Austin and as it's been shown to critics, it's been getting almost as many rave reviews as the Coen Brothers' movie, although this will be a far more difficult movie for Oscar voters to get their heads around. What really stands out in the movie are the performances by Daniel Day-Lewis and Paul Dano as an oilman and a evangelical priest who butt heads throughout the movie, and the Academy might feel somewhat guilty for denying Day-Lewis in 2003 for his role as "Bill the Butcher" in Martin Scorsese's Gangs of New York, his first movie in five years. There Will Be Blood is only Day-Lewis' second movie since then, but it's another riveting character that has put him into the lead in most pundits' scorecard. Dano, who was part of the SAG Ensemble winning cast of last year's Little Miss Sunshine has a stronger role that allows him to hold his own against Day-Lewis, an achievement in itself. Anderson has been nominated for two Oscars for his writing, and it's likely this will garner him a third, this time in the adapted category since he based the film on Upton Sinclair's novel "Oil!", although it's a tough category that's likely to include a number of Best Picture candidates, of which this is likely to be omitted. Also look for the atonal soundtrack from Radiohead guitarist Jonny Greenwood to get a nomination in the Score category.

Francis Ford Copplola's Youth Without Youth (Sony Classics) recently played at the Rome Film Festival, but it's mostly been skirting under the radar, although those who've seen it rave about it being a beautiful movie, one destined for all sorts of technical nominations. Right now, I know very little about the movie except that it stars the gorgeous Romanian actress Alexandra Maria Lara, who was also in Anton Corbijn's Control.

Rob Reiner's dark comedy The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) teams Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman as two men with terminal cancer who go on a worldwide romp. So far, there've only been a few screenings but most people who've seen it have raved about the performances by the two actors though both of them already have so many Oscar nominations under their belt, they might cancel each other out. In some ways, this movie looks like this year's Rumor Has It…, which ironically was Reiner's last movie, released by Warner Bros. during Oscar season two years ago expecting it to be nominated based on its credentials.

Last but not least, there's Denzel Washington's second movie as a director The Great Debaters (The Weinstein Company), in which he stars with last year's Oscar winner Forrest Whitaker and a group of young actors. It's been seen by even fewer people than the other new movies, but it would end up being a real underdog if it does get any nominations. Having a second movie out this season could also hurt Denzel's chances at getting a 6th Oscar nomination for Ridley Scott's American Gangster. Washington's last movie Antwone Fisher was snubbed and this one might be arriving way too late in the game to make much of a difference.

This Year's Trends

Looking at the awards trends for the year, it seems like we have a lot more Westerns than previous years as well as, for lack of a better term, "Middle Easterns." In the former category, there's James Mangold's remake of 3:10 to Yuma and There Will Be Blood, plus the Coen Brothers' modern-day Western No Country for Old Men. The trend actually started way earlier in the year with Seraphim Falls with Pierce Brosnan and Liam Neeson, but that low-profile film has been long forgotten.

Movies set in the Middle East range from Peter Berg's The Kingdom, more of a political action thriller, to The Kite Runner, which is more of a traditional character drama/epic set in Afghanistan. Movies like Rendition and Lions for Lambs have also used the Middle East and the government's war on terror as the backdrop for their stories, but those have been met with more resistance due to the amount of movies using similar themes.

Musicals are back in a big way and while there's more traditional Broadway fare like Hairspray and Tim Burton's dark take onSweeny Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, there's also smaller music-driven indies like Once and August Rush, both made by Irish directors, and full-blown Disney musicals like Enchanted. At least four of these are likely to be included in the Best Song category this year, and will probably have more than a few nominations in the Golden Globes' Comedy/Musical categories.

The other thing that seems to be prevalent this year is that the filmmakers for the most part seem to be going by the adage "Go with what you know." Tim Burton is doing a dark gothic film with Johnny Depp, Joe Wright is working with his Pride & Prejudice star Keira Knightley and most of the crew, and "The West Wing" creator Aaron Sorkin is writing a movie dealing with government politics. The only filmmaker who seems to be going against this grain is Paul Thomas Anderson, whose There Will Be Blood is so different from his previous films that it will hope to find him a new audience that might not have appreciated some of his previous efforts.

That's it for this installment of The Oscar Warrior, and you can read my updated predictions here. Sometime in late December, I'll run my final predictions and reasons for the picks, around the time that the Hollywood Foreign Press and various guilds start to announce their own nominations.

Thanks to Sasha Stone at Awards Daily and Tom O'Neil at Gold Derby for their helpful kibbitzing and for some of the best awards coverage on the face of the internet.