Reported to be expanding into 1200 theatres after two weeks in limited release, Lars and the Real Girl (MGM), starring Ryan Gosling (and the Chosen One from two weeks back), should be able to make a play for the low-end of the Top 10 as it builds on the positive word-of-mouth from its early release. Look for it to make around $3 million more or so. (Expect the confusion between these two movies that has been plaguing this writer for months to continue at the ticket office.)

This Week's Predictions -

1. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $29.2 million N/A

2. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $7.8 million N/A

3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $7.0 million -43%

4. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $6.7 million -58%

5. The Game Plan (Disney) - $5.9 million -28%

6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $4.5 million -34%

7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $3.5 million -37%

8. Lars and the Real Girl (MGM) - $3.0 million 1729%

9. We Own the Night (Sony) - 2.9 million -47%

10. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – 2.7 million – 52%

You can take three guesses what movie opened at #1 last year and if any of those guesses don't rhyme with "paw" then you really haven't been paying attention. Yes, indeed, Saw III had the strongest opening for the franchise with $33.6 million, followed by Martin Scorsese's The Departed and Christopher Nolan's The Prestige, each with negligible declines. Still with a total of $83 million for the Top 10 and with few returning movies supporting the two new ones, we'll probably see this weekend down from the same weekend last year, ending the month pretty much how it started.

Saw IV (Lionsgate)
Starring Tobin Bell, Scott Patterson, Betsy Russell, Costas Mandylor, Lyriq Bent, Athena Karkanis, Justin Louis, Simon Reynolds, Mike Realba, Marty Adams
Directed by Darren Lynn Bousman (Saw II and Saw III); Written by Patrick Melton and Marcus Dunstan (Feast)
Genre: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "This Halloween, Give 'til it Hurts"
Plot Summary: After the death of Jigsaw (Tobin Bell) and his assistant Amanda, two FBI profilers arrive to help veteran Detective Hoffman piece through the remains and solve the puzzle, but they're thrown into a new game when their colleague is abducted giving them 90 minutes to overcome a series of Jigsaw's traps.

The Halloween horror phenomenon is back for its fourth go-round, following the hugely successful previous movies, once again with Darren Lynn Bousman helming but this time without the creators of the franchise, James Wan and Leigh Whannell, who first created the series and co-wrote the previous three movies. Instead, Saw IV has been written by the team behind the long-delayed "Project Greenlight" horror flick Feast, which only got a very limited theatrical release before going to DVD. Tobin Bell is one of the few returning people from the past three movies, once again playing Jigsaw—yeah, I thought he died in the last movie, too—as well as Betsy Russell as Jill, but otherwise, this is mostly a new cast made of actors who haven't appeared in many major films and mostly unknowns except for maybe Scott Patterson who had a recurring role on "The Gilmore Girls." Then again, the "Saw" franchise has never been about star power even with actors like Danny Glover, Donnie Wahlberg and having appeared in earlier installments. It was never about the actors, though (or the acting—after all, Leigh Whannell himself co-starred in the first movie), but more about the premise and Jigsaw's death traps which usually had gory results.

Bousman certainly has upped the amount of gore with each chapter, but his third installment might face its biggest challenge in that the fans weren't nearly as thrilled with Saw III as the previous offerings and the premise might be wearing thin, especially with this year's backlash to "torture porn" in the form of Eli Roth's failed Hostel: Part II and movies like Captivity. In general, horror is starting to become a genre that's not nearly as bankable as seen just this past weekend when Sony's 30 Days of Night under-delivered compared to some expectations. (Okay, just mine.) Two years ago, Saw II single-handedly salvaged a failing box office that was seeing bomb after bomb with few movies grossing over $15 million and this month has been similar, down quite drastically from 2006, so Saw IV will have the same pressures, although Lionsgate has had a better fall than most other studios thanks to 3:10 to Yuma and Tyler Perry's latest movie, two of the more successful movies this fall.

The "Saw" franchise offers a fairly strong formula that allows it to find an even bigger audience on DVD and that should help the movie bring back a lot of the people who will want to know how (or if) they're going to revive Jigsaw after his death in the last movie and how things will continue. It should certainly give a much-needed boost to the box office. Of course, Lionsgate has no obligation or need to screen the movie for critics and even journalists doing interviews for the movie—shout-out to Ryan Rotten at ComingSoon.net's sister horror site ShockTillYouDrop.com!—didn't get to see the last reel of the movie before doing interviews, so no one's going to know how it ends until the premiere.

This time around, Lionsgate will be holding marathons of the first three "Saw" movies on Thursday night leading up to the midnight debut of Saw IV but as tends to be the case, that will just push the opening weekend business more towards Friday, so expect a big opening day between $12 and 15 million, which will trail off over the rest of the movie's run. It won't help that the equally anticipated Ridley Scott crime drama American Gangster will be nipping at its heels next week either, because that will steal a lot of the movie's male audience after opening weekend.

Why I Should See It: You've seen the rest… now see another one!
Why Not: The last chapter seemed like a great conclusion to a strong trilogy, so why continue especially without many of the original creators or cast?
Projections: $28 to 30 million opening weekend on its way to less than $70 million.

COMPARISONS

Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone)
Starring Steve Carell, Juliette Binoche, Dane Cook, John Mahoney, Emily Blunt, Dianne Wiest, Amy Ryan, Scott Wilson
Written and directed by Peter Hedges (Pieces of April, writer of About a Boy and What's Eating Gilbert Grape) with Pierce Gardner
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Something's happening to Dan. It's confusing. It's awkward. It's family."
Plot Summary: Dan Burns (Steve Carell) is an advice columnist and widower who his having his own family problems, both with the three daughters he's trying to raise on his own, but also with his family when they have their annual week-long reunion. Things seem to be picking up for Dan when he meets the vivacious (Juliet Binoche), only to learn that she's the new girlfriend of his more outgoing younger brother (Dane Cook).

Interview with Peter Hedges

Spotlight on Amy Ryan (who also appears in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, this week's Chosen One)

Review

Although there are only two new movies in wide release--much more reasonable than in the past few weeks--the underdog will have to be this new movie from screenwriter and filmmaker Peter Hedges (Pieces of April) which tries to continue Steve Carell's run as a romantic lead that was first brought to prominence with Judd Apatow's The 40-Year-Old Virgin two years ago. The role of Dan will also allow Carell to flex his dramatic muscle in a similar way as the Oscar-nominated and SAG award winning Little Miss Sunshine, while also bringing his normal humor, only in a more subdued way than something like the poorly-received Evan Almighty, which ended up making less than Virgin despite a budget nearly 5 times greater.

This is a great role and movie for Carell and he's clearly the star even if it does take a similar ensemble approach as Little Miss Sunshine, and it's likely to help him get some awards attention, even if it's just at the Golden Globes. Carell's love interest is played by one of France's finest and sexiest actresses, Juliet Binoche, but you wouldn't be able to tell by her box office, because few of her English language movies since the Oscar-nominated Chocolat by Lasse Hallstrom and The English Patient with Anthony Minghella have done much business here, many of them tanking. Dan's brother and rival for her affection is played by Dane Cook, who has had better luck at the box office due to his popularity as a comic, having had a number of moderate comedy hits, most recently with Jessica Alba in Good Luck Chuck. This is another dramatic role for Cook ala Mr. Brooks and he certainly brings something to the movie, which is a shame because few of his fans will even realize he's in the movie, since he's not in the commercials. Likewise, the popular young Emily Blunt from The Devil Wears Prada and the recent Jane Austen Book Club also has a small role, as does the up 'n' coming Amy Ryan, who also appears in Sidney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and last week, in Ben Affleck's Gone Baby Gone, but neither are getting much mention.

While the movie isn't necessarily a high concept romantic comedy like Must Love Dogs or Failure to Launch, the family gathering aspect of the movie could bode positive comparisons to the 2005 ensemble comedy The Family Stone which was released a bit later in the fall season, helping it make $60 million. The family gathering humor might also appeal to those who loved the 2005 comedy hit Wedding Crashers. When compared to the movies of another older funny man, Steve Martin, it's more like Parenthood in the way Carell deals with his daughter's issues, than Steve Martin's broader family comedy Cheaper by the Dozen. (Or maybe because of its release by Touchstone Pictures, a better comparison would be Steve Martin's Shopgirl, also from '05, although that wasn't given a wide release right off the bat.)

Dan will still probably appeal more to women from 15 to 30 and older couples than guys of any age, but that's only because after having so much success selling a bad comedy like The Game Plan, this has not been Disney's strongest marketing campaign, as they have mostly ignored the romance with Binoche and the rivalry with Dane Cook that makes up a good portion of what makes the movie good, instead playing up the jokier moments between Carell and his three daughters. It's not quite clear who they're trying to appeal to with this movie. Obviously women that like Carell will be interested, but wouldn't they be just as enticed knowing that he's playing a romantic lead like he did in The 40-Year-Old Virgin? In order to make up for their marketing faux pas, Disney wisely gave the movie sneak preview screenings this past weekend in roughly 400 theatres, but if you can't convince audiences to see these with the commercials, there's not much in the way of "word-of-mouth" you can get out of them to help the movie's opening weekend. The movie should win over a good amount of critics by tugging on their heartstrings, especially when they realize the movie is much better than the commercials make it look, but unfortunately, the movie is not getting a particularly wide release, less than 2,000 theatres, which might make it hard for it to repeat the success of some of Carell's previous films. Either way, expect word-of-mouth from opening weekend to carry this into the holidays even if it doesn't do that spectacular its opening weekend.

Why I Should See It: Steve Carell gives one of his most-rounded performances and the movie is just fun and lovely look at family and love.
Why Not: You can't tell how good the movie is from the trailers and commercials, which market it like a straight romantic comedy.
Projections: $7 to 9 million opening weekend and $31 million total.

COMPARISONS

THE CHOSEN ONE:

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (THINKFilm)
Starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke, Albert Finney, Marisa Tomei, Rosemary Harris, Michael Shannon, Amy Ryan
Directed by Sidney Lumet (Dog Day Afternoon, Serpico, Murder on the Orient Express, Long Day's Journey Into Night, The Verdict); Written by Kelley Masterson (debut script for the playwright)
Genre: Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: When brothers Andy and Hank (Philip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke) plan to rob their parents' jewelry store in order to help with their financial problems, things go horribly wrong causing a rift between them and with their father (Albert Finney).
Tagline: "No one was supposed to get hurt."

My Thoughts from TIFF

Feature/Interviews with Lumet and Cast

If there's any movie this year that came from out of nowhere, it's this one from legendary filmmaker Sidney Lumet, even though it kept coming up, such as in my interview with Ethan Hawke a few months ago. Maybe I was just skeptical because I was so disappointed in Sidney Lumet's last movie, the semi-comic Find Me Guilty with Vin Diesel, that I had my doubts, but this seriously intense crime drama not only won me over but it quickly became one of my favorite movies of the year. This is the kind of crime-thriller we've seen from the Coen Brothers ala Fargo, dealing with real people in tough situations created by a tragic accident, in this case a robbery gone wrong, but Lumet and playwright Kelley Masterson have found an interesting way to tell the tale from three different perspectives culminating in a shocking conclusion. Not only is the film visually amazing in its simplicity, but Lumet has assembled one of the finest New York based casts many of them giving strong performances including Oscar winners Philip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei (playing his super-sexy trophy wife), and Ethan Hawke in one of his better roles. If that weren't enough, he then got the amazing Albert Finney to play the father. There's so much depth and layers to each of the characters and their relationships, many of which are better to find out as you watch the movie, but this is a great serious crime drama with lots of shocks and twists, some not for the squeamish. I really can't recommend this movie highly enough, so if you're in New York or L.A., this should be your first choice. It's only playing in one theatre in each city so get your tickets early!

Honorable Mentions:

Pete Seeger: The Power of Song (Weinstein Co.) - Jim Brown's documentary is the only authorized biography of the legendary folk singer who sang about peace but who was banned from television for more than 17 years due to his roots in the Communist Party. Musicians like Bonnie Raitt, Joan Baez, Bob Dylan and Bruce Springsteen appear, talking about the influence Seeger had on their lives and music. It opens in select cities including the IFC Center in New York City.

Mini-Review: At first, anyone who has seen "A Mighty Wind" might have a hard time stiffling giggles at the obvious similarities, but once you get past that childishness, you're in for a highly inspirational treat with this comprehensive look at a man who was far more than just a folk singer. As a matter of fact, those who only thought of Seeger as a mere musician might be surprised and enlightened by how hugely influential he has been on our country over the last 60 years. Jim Brown does a phenomenal job showing how Seeger spent his entire life using his music to promote peace, love and unity as an active part of the Civil Rights Movement and later, to protest the Vietnam War. Yet, his earlier involvement pushing for unionization with the Communist Party gets him labeled as a traitor and banned from the airwaves by the U.S. government. Undaunted, he uses his music and love for American folklore to inspire school kids, leading to the folk movement of the '60s including the likes of Dylan, Baez and Arlo Guthrie. Brown was able to find lots of rare archival footage of Seeger during his early days but also leading huge seas of people in song, really showing his power as a leader, but the best part of this documentary, besides the candid interviews with Seeger and his immediate family, is that it doesn't end how these things often do, by talking about his death. Instead, we see Seeger still fighting against war and promoting causes like the cleaning of the Hudson River well into his '80s. Pete Seeger is an amazing man and this is an amazing film that will change many views of those who didn't know his history. Rating: 10/10!

Jimmy Carter Man from Plains (Sony Classics)
Starring Jimmy Carter, Rosalyn Carter
Directed by Jonathan Demme (Neil Young: Heart of Gold, The Manchurian Candidate, The Agronomist, The Truth About Charlie, Beloved, The Silence of the Lambs, Stop Making Sense, Married to the Mob and a lot more)
Genre: Documentary, Politics
Rated
Plot Summary: Filmmaker Jonathan Demme follows former President Jimmy Carter on his 2005 book tour for his controversial "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid" which causes a huge stir among the Jewish community and among supporters of Israel.
Of Note: This may be one of the comprehensive looks at a former President while still living done in an original way. It opens in New York, L.A. and presumably Atlanta on Friday.

Mini-Review: In a similar vein as last year's "Al Franken: God Spoke" and Demme's underrated "The Agronomist," this doc is a fascinating look at an underrated president in the later years of his life, trying to make people understand why it's important to look at both sides of the Israel-Palestine conflict. If anyone knows how important peace is in the Middle East, it would be Carter, whose involvement in the peace talks between Israel and Egypt ended the conflict that had been ongoing for hundreds of years. Demme has found an interesting way of capturing Carter on his 2005 book tour, including many of the tougher interviews and appearances, while intermeshing them with footage from his years as President, including the legendary Camp David talks. Despite the adversity, Carter is always charming and funny, but he never backs down on his resolve, and there's a wealth of knowledge and information one can absorb by watching him in his public appearances. As is the case with many of Demme's movies, the film is beautifully shot, accompanied by an impressive musical score that is impressive in its mixture of hip hop and roots music, and while the movie is definitely a bit long, make sure to stick around for the end credit montage, which shows some of the highlights of Carter's career. Anyone interested in politics and the conflict in the Mid-East should be able to enjoy this fascinating and informative portrait of a former president. Rating: 8/10

Slipstream (Strand Releasing)
Starring Anthony Hopkins, Stella Arroyave, Christian Slater, John Turturro, Michael Clark Duncan, Camryn Manheim, Jeffrey Tambor
Written and directed by Anthony Hopkins
Genre: Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Plot Summary: Felix Bonhoeffer (Hopkins) is an aging screenwriter living in two states of existence, reality and the one that he writes for his movie. His latest job is to write a murder-mystery set in a desert, but the characters from that start appearing in his real life and vice versa, causing an overload in his creative brain.
Of Note: The Oscar winning actor wrote and directed this surreal experimental film with an all-star ensemble cast that got a lot of attention at the Sundance Film Festival. It opens in New York, L.A. and Chicago on Friday.

My Thoughts from Sundance

Interview with Hopkins and Cast

Also in Limited Release:

Bella (Roadside Attractions) - Alejandro Gomez Monteverde's indie film--winner of the People's Choice at the Toronto Film Festival last year--stars Mexican soap star Eduardo Verástegui (Chasing Papi) as an international soccer star whose career comes to an end, and years later, when he's working as a chef in his brother José's restaurant, he decides to play hooky for a day with a waitress (Tammy Blanchard) who thinks she may be pregnant. It opens in roughly 150 theatres in select cities on Friday.

Mini-Review: While I don't want to question the reliability or taste of Toronto Film Festival audiences, this super low-budget movie doesn't seem to have very much plot or purpose, besides being an overly sweet and cute love letter to New York City, but the writing and storytelling just aren't there. Tammy Blanchard gives a standout performance as a troubled waitress and Mexican soap star Eduardo Verástegui isn't bad, but the rest of the cast is noticeably weaker. Monteverde tries too hard to squoosh too many ideas into a short amount of time, most of them involving visiting friends and family, and there's little reason why you might be interested in spending a day roaming around New York with these two people. There are a few of the usual physical impossibilities of their day in New York, but what really kills the movie is when it jumps forward an indeterminate number of years and the two main characters look exactly the same, showing exactly how lazy and sloppy this filmmaker really is. Rating: 5/10

Black Irish (Palisades Pictures) - Brad Gann's drama stars Michael Angarano and Brendan Gleeson in a coming-of-age drama about the15-year-old son trying to deal with his emotionally remote father. It opens in Boston on Friday.

How to Cook Your Life (Roadside Attractions) - German filmmaker Doris Dörrie helms this documentary that deals with the principles of Zen Buddhism and how it applies to the preparation of food, focusing on the teachings of Zen Master Edward Espe Brown. It opens in San Francisco this Friday and then in New York on November 16.

Lynch (Absurda) - This documentary--rumored to be self-made by director David Lynch himself--takes a look at the eclectic filmmaker's day-to-day life leading up to and during the making of his recent movie Inland Empire. It opens at the IFC Film Center in New York.

Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) - Director Marc Levin sets his documentary camera on the story of Nicky Barnes, the infamous New York druglord who ran the heroin business in New York for many years. Although Barnes has been in the witness protection program for years, he appears (in shadow) to talk about his life for Levin's cameras. It opens in 25 theatres in select cities on Friday.

Mini-Review: Using far too traditional talking heads methods to tell the story of this legendary New York gangster, Marc Levin's biggest coup was actually finding Barnes and having him tell his story in his own words, which is ultimately the most interesting part of the movie which assembles a lot of images and interviews with police officers, federal agents and accomplices to tell what's a fairly dry story. Barnes himself is mostly an arrogant and unlikable subject who seems to thrive on the attention and the fact that he committed so many crimes and then escaped prison by ratting on his friends and accomplices, justifying it in a way that few people would buy. Of course, this doc can't be coming out at a better time due to the impending "American Gangster" coming out next week, but that movie's subject, Frank Lucas, is mentioned only briefly, and anyone who sees both movies might question which one is accurate due to the number of conflicting stories. While this is sure to be of interest to gangsta rappers who idolize Nicky Barnes' lifestyle, there's very little about this movie that makes it interesting to others, regardless of the clever way the material has been assembled and compiled. It's also not necessarily something that needs to be seen in theatres, which is not something that can be said about Ridley Scott's movie. Rating: 7/10

Music Within (MGM) - Ron Livingston plays Richard Pimentel, the deafened Vietnam vet who helped change government policy about hiring the disabled and having wheelchair-accessibility to make their lives easier. Also starring Melissa George and Michael Sheen, this quirky biopic opens in select cities on Friday.

Mini-Review: One can't completely fault Steven Sawalich's directorial debut for its desire to shake up the biopic formula with a bit of humor, but it suffers from the same one faced by Kevin Spacey's "Beyond the Sea" in that Ron Livingston is far too old to play the younger Pimentel during his college years. On top of that, Livingston's performance is so flat and lifeless compared to those around him, including the vivacious Melissa George as his love interest. Michael Sheen gives the most impressive performance, as he's almost unrecognizable as Pimentel's best friend Art Honneyman, a man with severe cerebral palsy that makes him almost impossible to understand. The humor sometimes gets to be too much, especially in the case where you're not sure whether it's okay to laugh at Art's follies in the light of the film's serious undercurrents about how poorly the disabled have been treated in the past. The conflicting emotions about whether to laugh or not aren't helped by a brief appearance by Leslie Nielsen as an ear doctor. While Pimentel's story is certainly one worth telling for what he's contributed to equal rights, this weak attempt is too eccentric and erratic for its own good. At times, it's so much like a quirky poor man's version of "The World According to Garp" or "Forrest Gump" that it's hard to believe that it's actually based on the true story of a real person. Rating: 5/10

Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) - Alison Eastwood, daughter of.. take a wild guess, directs her first feature, a drama about a train conductor (Kevin Bacon) and his cancer-suffering wife (Marcia Gay Harden) whose life is put into further turmoil after a tragic accident. The film which premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival opens in New York, L.A. and Toronto Friday.

Interview with Alison Eastwood

Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)

Next week, it's November, and Ridley Scott teams with Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe for the real-life crime drama American Gangster (Universal), Jerry Seinfeld makes his long-awaited return in the animated Bee Movie (DreamWorks), and John Cusack follows The Rock by adopting a kid in Martian Child (New Line).

Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas