Opening well outside the Top 10 is The Final Season (Yari Film Group), a regional baseball movie which shocking enough is being released into 1,000 theatres and will likely end up with less than $1.5 million.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $15.6 million N/A

2. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) - $11.6 million +1600%

3. We Own the Night (Sony) - $11.3 million N/A

4. The Game Plan (Disney) - $10.7 million -35%

5. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $8.1 million - 41%

6. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $7.5 million N/A

7. The Kingdom (Universal) - $5.4 million -43%

8. Across the Universe (Sony) - $2.7 million +48%

9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screem Gems) - $2.4 million - 48%

10. The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) - $2.2 million - 42%

- The Final Season (Yari Film Group) - $1.4 million N/A

Last year, Friday the 13th didn't help the horror sequel The Grudge 2 find the success of its predecessor, opening with $20.8 million or nearly half as much, ending up just ahead of Martin Scorsese's The Departed in its second weekend. The Robin Williams political comedy-thriller (for lack of a better term) Man of the Year opened in third with $12.3 million and the WWE action-thriller The Marine, starring John Cena, opened in sixth with $7 million. The big surprise was the long-delayed and barely advertised spiritual epic One Night with the King, which grossed $4 million in 900 theatres. The top 10 grossed $95 million and like last week, there's little chance of this week's movies coming close to that amount. Did somebody say, "slump"? Not I.

The other sure signs that this is October is the fact that almost every movie opening or expanding into wide release this week is either two hours long or longer, and oddly, a lot of the wide releases this weekend are from writer/directors.

Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate)
Starring Tyler Perry, Janet Jackson, Malik Yoba, Jill Scott, Sharon Leal, Tasha Smith, Michael Jai White, Denise Boutte, Lamann Rucker
Written and directed by Tyler Perry (Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls, Tyler Perry's Madea's Familiy Reunion, upcoming Tyler Perry's Next Movie Which Will Probably Have His Name in the Title)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "...Because every moment we share is better than the last." (Excuse me a second… ::VOMIT:: Sorry, but the other options aren't much better.)
Plot Summary: Four married couples, all friends from college, travel to the mountain of Colorado for a week-long reunion where they learn that one of the couples hasn't been faithful, forcing them all to take a look at their lives and marriages.

The staggering sensation that is Tyler Perry continues unabated after his disappointing sophomore movie as a director, Daddy's Little Girls, failed to find success of previous films earlier this year. This time, Perry returns to more familiar ground with the third feature film based on one of his stageplays, one that's sold millions of tickets and videos. While Daddy's Little Girls might have been seen as a failure because it only made in total what Perry's previous movie Madea's Family Reunion made in its opening weekend, it had two primary factors working against it: it didn't star Perry's popular foul-mouthed granny Madea--essentially Perry in drag--and it wasn't based on one of his popular plays. Perry remains behind the camera but stays out of the dress for his fourth major feature film, which features another great African-American cast, with the most attention likely to be put on the return to acting by singer Janet Jackson, since she hasn't made a movie since starring opposite Eddie Murphy in 2002's The Nutty Professor: Meet the Klumps. Before that, she starred opposite the late Tupac Shakur in the John Singleton drama Poetic Justice. Joining her is another singer-turned-actress in Philly soul singer Jill Scott who performed in Dave Chappelle's Block Party and appeared in a couple indie movies like the controversial Hound Dog starring Dakota Fanning, which has yet to be picked up for release after playing at the Sundance Film Festival. It also stars Malik Yoba, Sharon Leal, Tasha Smith and Michael Jai White (aka "Spawn"), contributing to the theatrical nature of the piece.

The reason why Tyler Perry's new movie will win this weekend is because unlike all of the other movies being released, it won't be forced to share audiences, and its focused target audience of black women will likely show up to see it, just like they did with most of Perry's other movies. Apparently, there's a lot of buzz for the movie among the black community, which was helped by the obligatory appearance by Perry and his cast on Oprah Winfrey's influential talk show. With that in mind, expect Why Did I get Married? to do much better than most of white male Hollywood will expect and for everyone to be surprised once again by the popularity and success of Tyler Perry despite what seems like a lack of marketing.

Why I Should See It: Because Tyler Perry once again resists the temptation to don a dress and become foul-mouthed granny Madea.
Why Not: But we love Tyler Perry as Madea… almost as much as Martin Lawrence's Big Momma!
Projections: $14 to 17 million opening weekend on its way to $45 million total.

COMPARISONS

We Own the Night (Sony)
Starring Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Wahlberg, Robert Duvall, Eva Mendes, Alex Veadov
Written and directed by James Gray (The Yards, Little Odessa)
Genre: Crime, Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "Two brothers on opposite sides of the law. Beyond their differences lies loyalty."
Plot Summary: In 1988 Brooklyn, two brothers find themselves on opposite sides of the law. (Which you already know from the tagline above.) Bobby Green (Joaquin Phoenix) is a manager at a popular Russian-owned nightclub who finds himself at odd with his police officer brother Joseph (Mark Wahlberg) who is trying to live up to his chief-of-police father (Robert Duvall) by taking down the Russian gangsters who hang out at the club.

Interview with James Gray

Review (Coming Soon!)

It's been almost seven years to the date (off by a week) since James Gray's last movie The Yards was given a haphazard release by Miramax, never even seeing a proper release. Back then, the film's stars Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix didn't quite have the box office clout that they do now, though a few months later, Phoenix would be nominated for a supporting Oscar for Ridley Scott's Gladiator. In the seven years since, he received his first Oscar nomination as a lead for 2005's Walk the Line, while former Funky Bunch leader Mark Wahlberg was nominated just last year for playing a cop in Martin Scorsese's The Departed. After all that time, James Gray has reunited with the two actors for a very different type of crime drama with Wahlberg once again playing a police officer and Phoenix taking more of the lead role as his brother who's involved with the Russian crime scene. The movie was made independently by 2929 Films and picked up by Sony at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year, though it hasn't garnered nearly as much critical backing as some of the other movies shown there like Todd Haynes' I'm Not There or the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men, but it's also a much more commercial film with a strong cast including the legendary Robert Duvall and Eva Mendes, along with the two stars. After the success of Martin Scorsese's The Departed, it's much easier to market a movie like this although obviously, Gray doesn't have the name or clout of a Martin Scorsese (or a Ridley Scott for that matter) at getting people into theatres. Still, this movie should be a strong draw for guys and despite its R-rating, it's likely to have more appeal among the younger urban crowd than something like Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton, which will probably be shooting for more of a white collar upper class type of crowd.

Why I Should See It: This is one of the best police dramas in recent memory. Yes, even better than "The Departed," in my opinion.
Why Not: Outside of New York City, that title won't be much of a draw.
Projections: $11 to 13 million opening weekend on its way to $32 million.

COMPARISONS

Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)
Starring George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton, Sydney Pollack, Pamela Gray
Written and directed by Tony Gilroy (directorial debut of writer of the "Bourne" trilogy, The Devil's Advocate, Proof of Life, Dolores Claiborne)
Genre: Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "The Truth Can Be Adjusted"
Plot Summary: Michael Clayton (George Clooney) is the "clean-up guy" at a large New York law firm who gets caught up in a corporate conspiracy and cover-up when his colleague Arthur Edens (Tom Wilkinson) goes off his meds, claiming that the company he's been defending in a class-action lawsuit for six years knew that their fertilizer had the potential of causing health problems.

Interview with Tony Gilroy

My Review

Certainly the most intelligent and intriguing movie of this coming weekend is this cross between "The Firm" and "Erin Brockovich" which marks the directorial debut of Tony Gilroy, screenwriter of the "Bourne" trilogy and thrillers like The Devil's Advocate and Proof of Life. Gilroy's strongest weapon is its star George Clooney, whose box office career has been spotty based on the odd choices in projects he's tackled in his partnership with Steven Soderbergh (who is one of the producers for this movie.) Their last collaboration, The Good German, never even made enough money to warrant a wide release, and ironically, he starred in that with Cate Blanchett who'll be offering Clooney's new movie the most competition among older women. Otherwise, Gilroy's movie is following a similar release pattern as Stephen Gaghan's 2005 political thriller Syriana, which grossed $50 million and got Clooney his first Oscar when he was placed in the supporting category. That film rolled out a bit slower and later in the year to be helped by the holiday awards season although Michael Clayton is likely to be out of most theatres by the time the first awards are announced in early December. Even so, Clooney is giving a performance that's been getting rave reviews with support from Tilda Swinton, star of The Deep End and the White Witch from The Chronicles of Narnia, and Tom Wilkinson, a seasoned British actor who was nominated for an Oscar for his role in In the Bedroom.

This is very much like the type of movies that have been made from John Grisham's novels, like The Firm but without any of the action, and really, the only of his movies that have been released in the slower October month was 2003's Runaway Train with John Cusack. Clooney's obviously a bigger draw, but it's a tougher movie to sell because it's a much slower film than some of Gilroy's previous thrillers.

Last weekend, Michael Clayton opened in 15 theatres in New York, L.A. and Toronto, averaging an impressive $46,000, which is better than Cronenberg's Eastern Promises last month and on a par with Clint Eastwood's Oscar-nominated drama Mystic River, which was given a similar release pattern by Warner Bros., grossing $10.4 million in its first wide release in about a thousand fewer theatres than Michael Clayton. The strong reviews hailing Clooney's performance will help make this the first choice for older audiences, both men and women, and it will make it one of the few movies this weekend that won't be dividing audiences by gender.

Why I Should See It: A terrific corporate thriller with great performances from all.
Why Not: It's very slow and you actually need to have your brain engaged for this one. Sorry Game Plan fans!
Projections: $10 to 12 million opening weekend and $40 million total.

COMPARISONS

Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal)
Starring Cate Blanchett, Geoffrey Rush, Clive Owen, Samantha Morton, Abbie Cornish
Directed by Shekar Kaphur (Elizabeth, The Four Feathers); Written by William Nicholson (First Light, Gladiator), Michael Hirst (Elizabeth, "The Tudors" on Showtime, upcoming 1906)
Genre: Historic, Period Piece, Epic
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Before 'The Queen' There Was 'THE QUEEN'!" (No, not really, but it sounds a lot more exciting than the real tagline, which is "Woman. Warrior. Queen.")
Plot Summary: Ten years after gaining the crown, the "Virgin Queen" Elizabeth (Cate Blanchett) is facing conflict on all sides, from the Spanish King Philip who plans an invasion, and from Mary, Queen of Scotts (Samantha Morton)

Interview with Geoffrey Rush

My Review from Toronto

Nearly eight year after Shekhar Kapur's first English-language film Elizabeth was nominated for seven Oscars, winning one for make-up, the Indian-born director is back with the sequel of sorts that returns to the legendary British queen's reign ten years after the epic film. Elizabeth: The Golden Age reunites Kapur with that film's star Cate Blanchett, who at the time was barely known outside of her native Australia, and with Geoffrey Rush, another Australian actor who was still early in his film career at the time. Despite all of the Oscar nods, the movie only made $30 million total despite opening later in "Oscar season" and oddly, Kapur only made one other movie since then, that being the historic war drama The Four Feathers with Heath Ledger, which didn't perform particularly well.

In the meantime, Blanchett has built-up quite a fanbase in the time since with roles in movies like Martin Scorsese's The Aviator, for which she won an Oscar for her performance as Katherine Hepburn, and in last year's Babel and Notes on a Scandal, which also got Blanchett an Oscar nomination (which at this point is a foregone conclusion for the actress.) Elizabeth: The Golden Age might be seen as her first leading role in a feature film without the help of a Clooney or Pitt, and it should be a real test of how much of a draw she is. (Notes on a Scandal grossed half of what Babel did.) True that she's joined by Geoffrey Rush who has reached another level of fame with his role as Captain Barbossa in Disney's blockbuster "Pirates" movies, and with her co-star Clive Owen, who has had his own share of success, even if his most recent movie, Shoot 'Em Up, failed to have the appeal to his drooling female fans as this role should.

Elizabeth: The Golden Age promises a lot bigger scale than the earlier movie with large ship battles and the like, which will make it of interest both to older men and the women that would generally enjoy period pieces. The problem is that this is normally the type of movie that would open in limited release and then expand wider as needed, ala Julie Taymor's Across the Universe, but Universal, in hopes that many people remember and love the original movie, is opening it into nearly 2,000 theatres right off the bat. As images and the trailers started appearing for Kapur's follow-up film, it started to generate a lot of early Oscar buzz with many thinking Blanchett would get her first leading actress nomination since the first movie, but then people started seeing the movie, most notably at the Toronto International Film Festival, and it started garnering negative reviews that continued to grow as more critics see the movie. Right now, it's only at 33% on RottenTomatoes, and unfortunately, that's very likely to hurt the movie among older audience that rely heavily on reviews to determine their moviegoing choices. On top of that, Elizabeth will be vying for the same over-30 audience as Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton, which is getting much stronger reviews. The Golden Age should do respectable business this weekend, though it's not likely to make that much more than the original.

Why I Should See It: Shekhar Kapur returns to his greatest triumph with an even bigger historic epic reuniting two of the main actors from the Oscar-nominated original.
Why Not: Critics are claiming that the movie is too big and bombastic, which moviegoing audiences might appreciate, but they're just as likely to be bored.
Projections: $7 to 9 million opening on its way to $25 million total.

COMPARISONS

To keep things light and fun as the column goes into Year 6, here are six things I learned while watching Elizabeth: the Golden Age:
1. Queen Elizabeth aged more in ten years than Cate Blanchett, which answers the question, "Which is harder, ruling a country or winning an Oscar?"
2. Apparently, Sir Walter Raleigh was Errol Flynn's role model.
3. It's always proper for the Queen to ride sidesaddle unless she's addressing the troops before war in which case riding "sidesaddle" might not have the desired effect.
4. When the rats leave the ship, you're in trouble, but when the horses jump ship, you're REALLY in trouble.
5. Queen Elizabeth was really quite full of herself.
6. They probably should have gone with one the original working titles (pun intended), Elizabeth: Full Throttle or The Golden Age: Elizabeth Boogaloo.

The Final Season (Yari Film Group)
Starring Sean Astin, Powers Boothe, Rachel Leigh Cook, Michael Angarano, Tom Arnold
Directed by David Mickey Evans (Radio Flyer, The Sandlot, First Kid and the straight-to-video Beethoven's 3rd and 4th, upcoming Ace Ventura 3); Written by Art D'Allesandro (All Shoo, Up) James Grayford (The Grid)
Genre: Sports, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: "How Do You Want To Be Remembered?"
Plot Summary: Coach Kent Stock (Sean Astin) takes a job coaching the Norway, Iowa high school baseball team who have been the State Champions for 19 years, but when he learns that the high school will be closing down, he realizes that this will be their last chance to go for an even 20th Championship in a row.

Mini-Review: Not a bad movie but not particularly original, following the same formula as so many other movies, but not giving the viewer very much reason to care about a bunch of high school kids from Norway, Iowa. The writing isn't great and the casting choices are odd, particularly Michael Angarano as a tough kid from Chicago who is drafted into the small town baseball team and Tom Arnold as his father. Essentially, there's some decent baseball play, but it's surrounded by lots of corny dialogue, bad acting and a story filled with so many clichés that it's never able to win the audience over, which means that it fails as a sports drama. What's odd is that the movie starts at the end of the previous season and the team is so amazing, so it's hard to suspend disbelief when we're expected to believe that the thoughts of their high school closing would suddenly make them all play badly, and then all sorts of other ridiculous drama is piled on top of that to make it seem like them winning a 20th Championship would be such an impossible task. Even so, it always looks way too easy for these guys because they are such good players, so what is the point? Compared to excellent sports dramas like last year's "We Are Marshall" or any of Disney's sports movies, this is little more than an attempt to tell a story that while obviously important to those who made the film, probably won't hold that much interest to anyone not directly involved with the story. Rating: 5/10

The underdog of the weekend--that is, the movie that's not going to make any money at all--is this family-friendly sports drama produced by Sean Astin, who stars as a baseball coach who takes on a legendary Iowa high school baseball team to try to earn their 20th and final State Championship before they're closed down and merged into another local high school. Helmed by David Evans, who was responsible for the family films Radio Flyer and The Sandlot, this is a very straight-forward and traditional sports drama, that's only strange in the fact that it came from out of nowhere and is being given a surprisingly wide release by the independent distributor Yari Group, as it tries to find the same family audience as Disney's The Rookie but without their advertising clout. Even though it's being released to coincide with the end of the baseball season and being given such a wide release (1,000 theatres), one can expect that the story of this team will only be known and of interest to those in the Midwest and little elsewhere. Maybe that's why New York is one of the cities where the movie's not being released this weekend? Or maybe they realize that the New York already has the all-mighty Yankees who win every championship and the story of a high school team who is going for their 20th isn't too impressive to cynical New York baseball fans.

Why I Should See It: Because you live in Iowa, where this sports story is based.
Why Not: Do they even have movie theatres in Iowa, let alone 1,000? (If you live in Iowa, please feel free to let us know.)
Projections: $1 to 2 million, probably closer to the former, and under $3 million total.

THE CHOSEN ONE:

Lars and the Real Girl (MGM)
Starring Ryan Gosling, Emily Mortimer, Paul Schneider, Kelli Garner, Patricia Clarkson
Directed by Craig Gillespie (Mr. Woodcock); Written by Nancy Oliver ("Six Feet Under")
Genre: Comedy, Drama
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: Lars (Ryan Gosling) is a shy and quiet young man who's kept to himself since the death of his parents, worrying his brother and sister-in-law (Paul Schneider, Emily Mortimer) but when they get even more worried when he introduces them to his new girlfriend Bianca, a lifelike sex doll.
Tagline: "The search for true love begins outside the box."

Easily one of the nicest surprises out of this year's Toronto International Film Festival is this sublime dramedy from Nancy Oliver, writer of "Six Feet Under," and Craig Gillespie, an L.A. commercial director who follows up the recent broad comedy Mr. Woodcock with this very different type of comedy. It stars Ryan Gosling, who I've been a fan of since first seeing him in The Believer, in a very different role as Lars, a lonely older man--a bit heavy and with an unattractive moustache--who channels his loneliness into his love for Bianca, a lifelike sex doll he purchases online. Except to Lars, Bianca is real and he talks to her and feeds her, much to the worry of his brother and sister-in-law--two wonderful performances by Paul Schneider at his most cynical and Emily Mortimer at her most delightful--and where things go from there, well, that's what makes the film so special. Few movies have ever left me with such a big smile on my face--maybe the Irish musical Once--but also a movie that hit so close to home in terms of finding ways to deal with loneliness. Gosling just gives such a great performance in this, one that's heartwarming and humorous at the same time in a similar way as Robert De Niro's Rupert Pupkin in The King of Comedy, and it's clear to me that Gosling is on his way to being one of the greatest dramatic actors, while Lars also shows his incredible versatility. Don't be put off by what sounds like the high concept premise for a broad comedy, because Lars and the Real Girl is one of those rare films that comes along and makes you happy to have had a chance to see it, since it's such a rare pleasure. It opens in select cities on Friday and hopefully it will do well enough to justify MGM opening it wider.

Interview with Craig Gillespie

My Thoughts from the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)

Honorable Mention:

Control (The Weinstein Company)
Starring am Riley, Samantha Morton, Alexandra Maria Lara, Craig Parkinson
Directed by Anton Corbijn (debut by the photographer and music video director); Written by Matt Greenhalgh
Genre: Music, Drama
Rated R
Plot Summary: Traces the early years of Ian Curtis from a teen, marrying his childhood sweetheart Debbie at an early age, to forming the post-punk band Joy Division, leading to immediate fame in England until Curtis' untimely death by suicide on the eve of their first U.S. tour.
Of Note: Photographer Anton Corbijn makes his directorial debut with this movie about the life and death of Joy Division singer Ian Curtis, based on his wife Deborah Curtis' autobiography "Touching from a Distance."

It opens in New York at the Film Forum on Wednesday, in L.A. on October 19 and elsewhere in the weeks following.

Interview with Anton Corbijn and Sam Riley

My Thoughts from TIFF

Also in Limited Release:

Berkeley (Jungnrestless) - Bobby Roth wrote and directed this drama about Ben Sweet (Nick Roth), a conservative middle class teen who enters Berkeley in 1968 to avoid the draft, only to get caught up in the sex, drugs, rock 'n' roll and revolution of the times. Kinda like Across the Universe without the musical numbers based on Beatles tunes, it opens for a week only at Laemmle's Sunset 5 in West Hollywood and the Colorado One in Pasadena.

Canvas (Screen Media Films) - Joe Pantoliano and Marcia Gay Harden star in this drama based on writer-director Joseph Greco's childhood dealing with mental illness while trying to cope with his schizophrenic mother. No idea where it opens, so let's just say that it does.

The Disappointment: Or, The Force of Credulity - Brian Springer's esoteric doc is part personal family documentary and part historical essay, as it explores (and I'm taking this right from the site cause I don't get it) "the legacy of 19th century U.S. anarchism and the American folk magic tradition of speaking to spirits and searching for gold (such as the golden diaries of Mormonism)." What the hell!??!? I don't know about you, but I'm going to be first in line to see this when it opens at New York's Pioneeer Theatre on Wednesday.

Golda's Balcony (Seventh Art Releasing) - In this drama based on William Gibson's Broadway play, Valerie Harper takes on the role of Israel's first woman Prime Minister, Golda Meir, in this drama from Jeremy Kagan that shows her rise to power and the price she paid as leader. It opens in New York at the Quad Cinemas on Friday and in L.A. on October 19.

Khadak (Lifesize Entertainment) - Following on the heels of the recent "Milarepa", this Mongolian film by Peter Brosens and Jessica Woodworth tells the epic story of Bagi, a young nomad who sets out to become a shaman after his family is hit by the plague, killing their herd. Opens at the Cinema Village in New York on Friday as does…
King Corn (Balcony Releasing), a movie that follows the quest of two college buddies, Ian Cheney and Curt Ellis, as they try to follow the path of corn through the fast food chain as it's turned into genetically modified seeds and corn syrup that cause obesity and diabetes.

Laaga Chunari Mein Daag - The Journey of a Woman (Yash Raj Films) - The latest from Bollywood is this romantic drama about the eldest daughter of a close-knit family who is hit by financial problems, forcing her to enter the sex trade. In other words, this might be the hottest Bollywood movie EVER, especially if she sings while doing tricks. It opens in the normal markets for these films.

Sleuth (Sony Classics) - Jude Law and Michael Caine take on Anthony Schaffer's 1970 play about two men competing for the love of a woman with Law playing the role that Caine played in the 1972 film. This semi-remake, adapted by award-winning playwright Harold Pinter, opens in select cities this weekend. (Look for interviews with Jude Law and Michael Caine later this week.)

My Thoughts from TIFF

Terror's Advocate (Magnolia) - Legendary filmmaker Barbet Schroeder directs this documentary about the terrorist movement as seen through the life of the enigmatic Jacques Vergès, a right-wing extremist who helped to defend terrorists including Nazi lieutenant Klaus Barbie.

Next week is another busy one with six more movies in wide release. (sigh) Vampires invade Alaska in 30 Days of Night (Sony), Ben Affleck directs brother Casey in the thriller Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), Reese Witherspoon and Jake Gyllenhaal face a Rendition (New Line), Benicio Del Toro and Halle Berry find Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks). Wait, wait, don't go away yet; there's still more. Also The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) spoofs sports dramas and Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) is… um… a movie about Sarah Landon… and the Paranormal Hour! (I'm hoping it's a 60-minute movie told in real time like "24.")