Been and Gone

While in past years, there have been a number of Oscar hopefuls earlier in the year, long before the official "Oscar season" starts in September, this year there's been no Crash or Gladiator or Silence of the Lambs, a movie so good that it can withstand months and months of scrutiny and competition to win the top awards.

The Sundance Film Festival hasn't been the best proving ground for Oscar films, although it provided one of last year's underdog Best Pictures in the ensemble road comedy Little Miss Sunshine. This year, the only movie that's really withstood the test of time is the Irish indie musical Once by John Carney, starring newcomers Glenn Hansard and Markéta Irglová. While it may seem like too small a movie to make any sort of mark, it is a much-loved movie by anyone who's seen it and if nothing else, Fox Searchlight will be pushing it in the Original Song category. The movie itself has been received so well that it's allowed Hansard and Irglová to play bigger halls as the musical duo The Swell Season than Hansard's other band The Frames, and the movie's likely to wind up in many Top 10 lists this year.

David Fincher's crime drama Zodiac probably should have been part of the 2006 Oscar season, but for whatever reason, DreamWorks/Paramount delayed it to March—maybe to clear the way for Dreamgirls?--and that might end up hurting it more than its three-hour running time. The movie didn't do that much business in theatres, around $33 million, which is just a little more than Fincher's last movie Panic Room made its opening weekend, but it was received well by critics as a stark and slow procedural thriller driven by strong performances, with an especially memorable one by Robert Downey Jr. as reporter Paul Avery. It's held up well with critics, scoring 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, and DreamWorks has wisely sent out DVDs of the movie to most awards voters, though one can't help that this might already be considered this year's United 93. Best bets are Downey in the supporting category and Fincher to pull a surprise nomination for directing, but they're both longshots.

Michael Winterbottom's A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) got a lot of attention for its stirring adaptation of Marianne Pearl's account of the life and death of her husband Daniel Pearl, who was beheaded by terrorists in 2002. There are a lot of decent performances in the movie including Dan Futterman, but it's Angelina Jolie's emotional performance as Marianne that has received the most attention, as much for her skin color and accent than for the performance itself. Otherwise, the movie didn't strike a chord with moviegoers, so it probably will be difficult to get much beyond that, although Vantage has been pushing Jolie to get into the fairly open Leading Actress category.

Sarah Polley's drama Away From Her (Lionsgate) did very little business in theatres (less than $5 million), but it has been receiving rave reviews since its debut at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2006, and it's the type of emotional film that older Academy voters will love, which is why Lionsgate is wisely sending out screeners to make sure those who missed it in theatres will have a chance to consider it, mainly for the performance by Julie Christie, who has been nominated twice since her 1965 win for Darling, and one can expect her to get another nomination for this performance. Canadian veteran Gordon Pinsent gives an equally worthy performance and though he's won numerous Canadian Genies and Gemini Awards, he's virtually unknown in this country and the Lead Actor field may be too full for him to get in.

Christie's biggest competition might end up being a little known French actress named Marion Cotillard, who pulled such a coup with her portrayal of French singer Edith Piaf through her many years in Olivier Dahan's biopic La Vie en Rose (Picturehouse), that many people are still remembering that performance months later. It was a bit of a shocker when Dahan's movie was ignored by France, Piaf's birthplace, for their Oscar pick in favor of the animated Persepolis (see below), but that just gives the movie more chances in other categories, though it's more than likely that it will be Cotillard's performance that wins over Oscar voters. To help remind them, Cotillard has returned to the States for interviews and to talk about the movie as it's screened for the various guilds.

Judd Apatow's second movie Knocked Up (Universal) was one of the big box office stories of the summer, grossing $148 Million, four times its cost, and while Universal is trying to remind Academy and guild members about the movie with well-timed screeners, it's not exactly an "Oscar movie." It's likely to be one of the Golden Globe choices for Comedy/Musical, and one might see Seth Rogen and Kathryn Heigl in their acting categories. Who knows? Maybe it might even be a surprise SAG ensemble nominee, but it's still more likely that Apatow's semi-improvised screenplay would get recognized by the Academy writers over any individual performances, although they weren't fans of The 40-Year-Old Virgin.

Another summer hit, the movie musical Hairspray (New Line) based on John Waters' look at Baltimore during the '60s has gained itself a lot of fans, although its best chances may be laying on it getting a supporting actor nomination for John Travolta and a SAG ensemble award, although its main focus will be the Golden Globes where it will probably get into a number of the Musical Comedy categories, going head-to-head with Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd.

Werner Herzog's Rescue Dawn (MGM) received a lot of critical raves back in July, and it's usually the kind of movie that might be positioned around awards time to draw attention to Christian Bale's performance or the surprising dramatic turn by Steve Zahn, but sadly, both of them are likely to be overshadowed by the younger Emile Hirsch in Sean Penn's Into the Wild (see below).

The Festival Circuit

The reason why September is the time when pundits start taking the Oscar race more seriously is because studios will start to roll out their stronger fare that they feel is awards-worthy at any number of festivals. While the summer Cannes Film Festival tends to be more about getting distribution, September's film festivals in Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film are where the studios put (hopefully) their best foot forward. The New York Film Festival at Lincoln Center has also proven to be a great litmus test for great Oscar-worthy movies, having held the U.S. premieres of movies like The Queen, Good Night, and Good Luck, Mystic River and Guillermo del Toro's Pan's Labyrinth in past years.

Picked up at Cannes, Julian Schnabel's third film The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax), an adaptation of a French autobiography by the Vogue editor who suffered a sudden stroke leaving him fully paralyzed except for one eye, is the kind of fare that Oscar voters love, dating back to Jim Sheridan's My Left Foot and The Sea Inside, which won the Foreign Language Oscar a few years back. Schnabel's last film, Before Night Falls, got a nomination for its lead actor Javier Bardem, and The Diving Bell has a similarly memorable performance from the highly respected French actor Mathieu Amalric, who does a great deal of emoting without being able to move his face or body. Other strong performances include Max von Sydow as his father and Emmanuelle Seigner as his estranged wife, although one has to wonder whether SAG might get behind the movie with its all-French cast. Chances are that it will be recognized for Amalric and for the lyrical screenplay by Ron Harwood, who won an Oscar for The Pianist in 2002, and who may be competing against himself with his script for Love in the Time of Cholera.

Schnabel's movie played at both Toronto and New York Film Festivals as did Juan Antonio Bayona's Spanish language horror film The Orphanage (Picturehouse), which has the backing of its producer Guillermo del Toro and the same studio who helped get his Pan's Labyrinth so much Oscar acclaim. Even though it's received Spain's backing in the foreign language race, it's even more of a genre film than Pan's which might make it hard for it to stand out even with a great performance by Belén Rueda. It might remind some Oscar voters of M. Night Shyamalan's The Sixth Sense, which received six Osacr nominations, but it's more likely to be praised by critics than the Academy.

The big premiere at the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals was Joe Wright and Christopher Hampton's adaptation of Ian McEwan's bestselling novel Atonement, which many were eager to see. Even before the festivals, it was pegged as one of the frontrunners to make the short-list for Best Picture, although it may have been different than some may have expected, particularly the non-linear aspect that makes it hard to differentiate reality and fiction, which might turn some Academy members off. Either way, the movie's notable for the great performances across the board including James McAvoy, who many felt was neglected for his performance in Kevin MacDonald's The Last King of Scotland, Keira Knightley, who received an Oscar nomination for Wright's Pride & Prejudice, the always great Vanessa Redgrave and newcomer Saoirse Ronan, who many feel is the actress to watch considering the strong performances she's giving at such a young age. Expect it to get notices for its screenplay, Wright's direction, and almost a guaranteed SAG Ensemble nomination, although individual performances might be tough for its leads in such crowded categories, especially since Knightley was nominated just two years ago and this performance might not be considered as worthy. That leaves McAvoy and Redgrave and Ronan as the strongest contenders for acting nods, the latter two following movies like Babel and Gosford Park, both which had two supporting actress nominations.

After writing screenplays for many directors who went onto Oscar nominations, Tony Gilroy directed his own movie Michael Clayton, a brilliantly written corporate thriller that's almost guaranteed to get George Clooney his second Oscar nomination, this time in the leading actor category. Gilroy's script should be considered to make the shortlist for Original Screenplay, and there's a couple notable supporting performances from Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton that might sneak into the race, but its slow pace might put too many Oscar voters to sleep before they can consider it for a Best Picture consideration, and Gilroy isn't established enough of as a director to be recognized by that division.

On the other hand, after being delayed a whole year, Andrew (Chopper) Dominik's second movie The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) received mixed reviews from critics, although those who liked it really loved it. The good news is that Brad Pitt received a Best Actor award at the Venice Film Festival although some critics felt actor Casey Affleck was more deserving, and frankly receiving that award doesn't really mean much if you look at past winners like Ben Affleck in Hollywoodland, Javier Bardem in The Sea Inside and Sean Penn for 21 Grams, none of whom were nominated. (Penn was nominated and won that same year for Clint Eastwood's Mystic River.) The movie hasn't been supported very much by its studio, being given a very limited release, and a lot of the attacks on the film have been about its long running and slow pace, a feeling that might be felt by Oscar voters. Really, the only chance for this movie is for technical awards like cinematography, though Richard Deakins will probably win for his other movie No Country for Old Men rather than this.

Another film that has won many fans both at the Toronto Film Festival and in its release is Sean Penn's adaptation of Jon Krakauer's best-selling book Into the Wild, which has received an impressive grading of 8.7/10 from IMDb Users. The performance by Emile Hirsch as Christopher McCandless, a care-free college graduate who gave up everything for a trek to Alaska, only to die of starvation, is an impressive one for which he lost a lot of weight, which may be enough to get him on the shortlist for Best Actor at the Oscars. A great supporting performance by the legendary Hal Holbrook in the last half-hour of the movie might be remembered because it's the high point of what some feel is an overly long movie. Being based on a popular bestselling novel is something that will play a strong factor in this year's Oscars, especially when an actor-turned-writer/director like Penn blows people away with the scope of a film like this, so there's a good chance that his adaptation will be recognized by the writers and directors branches as well, though really, all it needs is for the actors to get behind it and with such an impressive cast including past nominees like Catherine Keener and Marcia Gay Harden, it's hard to believe it won't get a SAG Ensemble nod.

A true underdog going into Toronto was Sidney Lumet's 45th film, the crime drama Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, which returns the multiple Oscar winning director to the height of Oscar worthy movies like Dog Day Afternoon and Network. With a great script by playwright Kelley Masterson that's likely to be nominated in the original screenplay category and strong performances from its ensemble cast, almost all of whom have been nominated for Oscars before, this is a strong film from Lumet, who stands a good chance of getting nominated by the Academy's directing branch, even if the movie is overlooked on a whole. It might be too soon for Philip Seymour Hoffman to get another lead actor nomination for this, but Ethan Hawke and Albert Finney both have chances in the supporting category.

Yet another Cannes pick-up, Persepolis (Sony Classics) surprised a lot of people by being France's choices for the Academy Awards' foreign language category. Directed by Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud based on Marjane's acclaimed autobiographical graphic novel of the same name, the film has gained many fans at its many festival showings, including Closing Night at this year's New York Film Festival, and it's likely to make many critical short lists for Animated Feature as well. While it's odd to have an animated movie in the foreign language category, it's a touching human story that stands a chance at getting into Foreign Language, though it should easily make the Animated Oscar short list and give Pixar's Ratatouille a bit more serious competition, because it's an animated movie geared towards adults.

Another big surprise out of Toronto was Lars and the Real Girl (MGM), the subtle comedy that featured a rich emotional performance from recent Oscar nominee Ryan Gosling—though seemingly getting thrown off of Peter Jackson's potential future Oscar flick The Lovely Bones is not going to endear him to Oscar voters (something learned the hard way by Russell Crowe). Gosling's performance is the only thing really notable beyond Nancy ("Six Feet Under") Jeffries' script, although the movie might be far too low-profile to get attention away from the movies with stronger campaigns.

Following the success of Thank You for Smoking, Jason Reitman debuted his second movie Juno (Fox Searchlight) at the Toronto Film Festival to raves. Stripper-turned-writer Diablo Cody's screenplay is almost guaranteed an Original Screenplay nomination and Canadian actress Ellen Page should get a lot of critical and awards nods this season, including strong placement in the Golden Globes' Comedy/Musical acting category. While the talented ensemble cast might help get the movie an ensemble nod from SAG--always a strong precursor to a Best Picture nomination since actors make up such a large portion of the Academy--the movie might just be too quirky and in-your-face for older Oscar voters to make it one of their Best Pics. How the movie does in theatres when it opens in December could have some effect on that, although it's opening very late in the season, which doesn't give it enough time to build support ala precursors like Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine, both which were released by Fox Searchlight.

I'm Not There (Weinstein Co.), Todd Haynes' eccentric tribute to Dylan, debuted at the Cannes Film Festival over the summer where it was picked up by the Weinstein Company before doing the ideal festival trilogy of Toronto, Venice and New York. It's almost agreed upon unanimously, even by those who hate the movie—of which there are many—that Cate Blanchett's portrayal of the "Don't Look Back" era of Dylan is nothing short of amazing—she won the prestigious actress award at Venice, which is a precursor to the Oscars--and the question is whether the Weinstein Company will consider it a supporting performance due to being part of an ensemble cast or sneak it into the leading category. Either way, Blanchett has a better chance of being nominated for this than Elizabeth: The Golden Age. (see below) Otherwise, Haynes hasn't found much favor with Oscar voters in the past, and the movie probably will be too weird for them, even with the number of Dylan fans in Hollywood. Haynes' screenplay has a slight chance at being nominated—but is it original or adapted?—but any other awards might elude the film.

Also picked up by the Weinstein Company at Cannes was Control, Anton Corbijn's straight-ahead biopic of Joy Division frontman Ian Curtis, which has been receiving rave reviews, which might help newcomer Sam Riley get a few critical nods for his portrayal of the troubled singer, but Joy Division is not exactly an "Academy-friendly" band and he's facing a lot of stiff competition from well-known and respected actors. While the Academy tends to look favorably on young ingénue actresses, we don't see new actors get nominated very often, one exception being Haley Joel Osment for M. Night Shyamalan's The Sixth Sense, so this might be one strong biopic performance that gets overlooked.

Paul Haggis went into festival season with his first movie since the surprise Oscar winner Crash, and it made sense that he'd premiere In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) at the Toronto Film Festival where Crash debuted two years prior. The thriller with clear anti-war sentiments has received fair to middling mixed responses both at the festivals and in its theatrical run where it's grossed less than $10 million, showing America's general disinterest in war movies. Still, Warner Independent will be pushing the movie heavily, and its best bets are for its screenplay and for the performances by Tommy Lee Jones and Susan Sarandon. Maybe SAG will get behind the ensemble cast which includes many past winners and nominees, but really, this is looking at a couple scattered awards, and it's a dark horse at best in any categories it gets into.

One of the most highly anticipated movie of the Toronto Film Festival was Shekar Kaphur's Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), his follow-up to the multiple Oscar nominated movie Elizabeth, but it got trashed by critics for being a bombastic bore. After its negative reception at Toronto and a poor box office performance, it's unlikely that even Cate Blanchett's fine performance as the older Queen Elizabeth will be in the running, especially if voters feel stronger about her performance in Haynes' Dylan film.

Ang Lee's follow-up to Brokeback Mountain was the Chinese war drama Lust, Caution (Focus), which went into festival season like a lion but exited like a lamb. Despite winning the top prize for Best Picture at the Venice Film Festival, upsetting the critics who slammed it, it just hasn't found enough stalwart fans to support it through the season, and after China and Taiwan fought over who could claim it as their Oscar candidate, it wound up not being eligible for either. The film is gorgeous enough to be considered for technical awards and possibly even in the Golden Globe foreign language category, but it might be too Chinese for Academy voters, and the fact that it's barely made $3 million after a month in theatres makes one wonder what sort of lasting power it might have.

Likewise, Eastern Promises (Focus), David Cronenberg's follow-up to A History of Violence, was praised by some, trashed by others, some thought it was Cronenberg's chance to be recognized after being overlooked for Violence, others though that it was Viggo Mortensen's turn. Despite all the arguing about the movie, it's slipped away, mostly forgotten, having grossed less than $20 million and chances are the critics who backed it by year's end will forget it.

Terry George's adaptation of John Burnham Schwartz's novel Reservation Road (Focus) featured an all-star cast of past Oscar nominees and winners like Joaquin Phoenix, Jennifer Connelly and Mira Sorvino, but most of their performances took a back seat to that of Mark Ruffalo (who also starred in Zodiac). Even so, the movie's so grim and weepy that few critics cared much for it at Toronto, and it's doubtful that Oscar voters will be that much more impressed. (So yeah, let's just say that Universal and its subsidiary Focus Features went into Toronto as the studio most likely to dominate the awards season and left the festival season with only one movie that looked like it had much hope, that being Atonement.)

Gavin Hood's political thriller Rendition (New Line) went into Toronto featuring an all-star Oscar-worthy cast including Reese Witherspoon in her first movie since getting an Oscar for Walk the Line, Alan Arkin, Jake Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep and the far too often neglected Peter Sarsgaard. There were probably a lot of hopes for the movie to get some recognition for its Babel like multi-tiered story, but the critics mostly trashed it, and it bombed at the box office when it was finally released a few weeks back. (With a 44% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this one's not winning over anyone, let alone Oscar voters.)

Even so, no movie received a worse reception at Telluride and Toronto then Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage), his follow-up to The Squid and the Whale starring Nicole Kidman. At one point, some people thought Baumbach's movie might help her get another Oscar nomination but the characters are so detestable and the story so random that it will be lucky if it even gets a nomination for Baumbach's screenplay.

In part 2, hopefully out sometime next week, we'll look at movies already in theatres that skipped the festivals, those coming soon and those which have yet to be seen by the majority of critics and Oscar pundits. (Note: I realized after finishing this that I forgot to mention the Coen Brothers' adaptation of No Country for Old Men, which also ran the festival circuit, but that will be included next week.)