With only two months to go, 2007 might feel like the weakest year for awards-worthy movies ever, but maybe that's because there have been many really good movies, but nothing so great that it immediately jumps to the top of anyone's Top 10 list for the year. Few of the movies seemed like they could bear repeat viewings for decades to come, but honestly, can anyone say that any of the movies selected as Best Picture by the Academy over the last five or six years might be deemed classics that might be heralded with special edition anniversary DVDs in ten or twenty years? Probably not.

Even so, enough movies have been released and seen at festivals to get some idea what movies the studios might be using to attach the Academy and other awards groups this season in hopes of getting that coveted recognition and the dollars that often goes along with it. What you're about to read below aren't predictions, but you can see a few of my early ones here if you're interested, though these are likely to change over the next two months as more movies are seen and the picture becomes clearer.

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, and after the weak October month ended on a high note thanks to the "Saw" franchise, the holiday season officially kicks off with two movies that will hope to reinvigorate the dismal box office, and Ridley Scott's latest movie, the crime drama American Gangster (Universal), reteaming superstars Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe for the first time in 12 years, should capitalize on the interest in the genre following the success last year of Martin Scorsese's The Departed. That interest combined with Denzel Washington's normal box office draw, particularly among urban males who haven't had a strong event movie like this in a long time, should bring in enough of an audience to make it the top movie of the weekend, though its take might be hurt somewhat by the leak of the movie onto the internet last week.

Offering some healthy competition in its counter-programming, Jerry Seinfeld's animated comedy Bee Movie (DreamWorks/Paramount) will appeal to a much-neglected family audience who has only had Disney's The Game Plan over the last few months. Although computer animated movies have seen a bit of a lethargic downturn in recent years, the appeal of it being Seinfeld's first major new work since the end of his hugely popular sitcom nine years ago should bring in a lot wider audience than normal kid fare.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

For the past two years, every time October comes to a close, the box office report nearly wrote itself thanks to a certain unstoppable horror franchise, and this year was no exception as the fourth chapter Saw IV (Lionsgate) opened with slightly less than the last chapter, an estimated $32.1 million, after making nearly the same amount as its predecessor on Friday. It averaged an impressive $10k per theatre to become the 6th highest opening movie for the month of October and amongst the top 5 horror sequels.

Opening in a strong second was Peter Hedges' Dan in Real Life (Touchstone), starring Steve Carell, with an estimated $12 million, proving that strong and smart counter-programming to the established horror franchise could do well among the audiences neglected by the gory R-rated option.

There isn't much to add from earlier in the week except that Lars and the Real Girl (MGM) won't be going as wide as we expected but Wes Anderson's The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) will be expanding into 698 theatres, but that probably won't be enough to get it into the Top 10, as it winds up just outside with $2.2 million. There's still a tight race for third place between 30 Days of Night and Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? which might not clear up until actuals are announced on Monday, but otherwise, the returning movies will fall behind the two new movies in wide release.

Final Predictions -

1. Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $28.9 million N/A (down .3 million)

2. Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone) - $8.2 million N/A (up .3 million)

3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $7.0 million -43% (same)

4. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $6.9 million -57% (up .2 million)

5. The Game Plan (Disney) - $6.1 million -25% (up .2 million)

6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $4.4 million -34% (down .2 million)

7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $3.5 million -36% (same)

8. We Own the Night (Sony) - 3.0 million -45% (up .1 million)

9. Tim Burton's Nightmare Before X-Mas (Disney) - $2.8 million -48% (new)

10. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) – 2.7 million – 52% (same)

- The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $2.2 million (new)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where after a dismally over-crowded weekend, October ends with another "Saw" movie arriving to save the box office, along with a movie that might be a harder sell. Continuing the annual tradition of taking over the weekend before Halloween, the "mother of all torture porn" franchise is back, going into its fourth installment Saw IV (Lionsgate). The creators of the franchise, James Wan and Leigh Whannell, didn't write this one and Tobin Bell is the last man standing (sort of) as the murderous mastermind Jigsaw, but some fans who weren't so thrilled with the last installment might wait for DVD on this one, which means it might have a softer opening and shorter stay in theatres. While Saw II saved a flagging box office in 2005, Saw IV may be that one movie too many in a franchise that starts the downwards slide, although one can expect it will still top the box office, but with less than $30 million this time.

Meanwhile, Peter (Pieces in April) Hedges' comedy Dan in Real Life (Disney/Touchstone), starring Steve Carell, will be released in nearly half as many theatres, trying to act as counter-programming although it's being sold as a light romantic comedy when in fact it's a film with a lot more depth. Hopefully, the fanbase Carell built up with NBC's "The Office" and popular movies like The 40-Year-Old Virgin will help bring in that audience, especially with so few of the existing movies in theatres making a mark, but this one is still likely to end up under $10 million.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

It was another dismal weekend at the box office, marred by the most new movies in wide release in a long time (seven) with another one expanding wider, few of them really breaking out, and it's a bigger shame when the movie that brings in the most business per-theatre in the top 10 is a 3D reissue of a movie that's nearly 14 years old. (More on that below.)

Still, the Sam Raimi produced vampire flick 30 Days of Night (Sony), based on the popular graphic novel, came out in first place as expected with an estimated $16 million in 2,855 theatres. The Josh Hartnett led horror-thriller averaged $5,604 per theatre, which is good but not great compared to other horror movies opening in October.

The only other new movie to get into the Top 5 was Ben Affleck's directorial debut
Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), which grossed $6 million in 1,713 theatres, scoring the second highest per-theatre for the new releases. (Other studios have claimed that Miramax are overestimating the movie to get into the Top 5.)

A day later and this weekend is still a mess, although it's fairly clear what will end up on top (Sony's 30 Days of Night) and what will end up near the bottom (DreamWorks' Things We Lost in the Fire) with a lot of movies squooshed in between. Helped by the biggest theatre count for a new movie, Fox Atomic's sports comedy The Comebacks should be able to squeeze out the adult dramas for third place with under $10 million, and Ben Affleck's Gone, Baby, Gone should be helped by positive reviews to give Rendition a run for fourth place despite opening in nearly 500 fewer theatres, though it also might lose some of its audience to the other movies.

Paramount Vantage will expand Sean Penn's Into the Wild into just over 650 theatres this weekend, which should allow it to make roughly $2.3 - 2.5 million, not enough to get into the Top 10. It will probably end up around the same area as the animated The Ten Commandments which will be opening in 830 theatres, building on the potential to find a Christian audience, and both should do better than Freestyle Releasing's Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour, which may have trouble making a million dollars. Disney's rerelease of Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas in Disney Digital 3D into over 500 theatres should bring the movie another $3 million or slightly more, again not enough to get into the crowded Top 10.

Updated Predictions -

1. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $21.6 million N/A (up .9 million)

2. Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $10.8 million -49% (same)

3. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) - $9.4 million N/A (up .2 million)

4. Rendition (New Line) - $8.2 million N/A (down .3 million)

5. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $7.7 million N/A (up .9 million)

6. The Game Plan (Disney) - $7.6 million -35% (up .3 million)

7. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) – $6.3 million -40% (up .3 million)

8. We Own the Night (Sony) - $6.0 million - 45% (up .2 million)

9. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks) - $4.0 million -45% (up .1 million)

10. Things We Lost in the Fire (DreamWorks) - $3.8 million N/A (up .2 million)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, as October motors along with six new movies in wide release, and the only one that looks like a sure thing is 30 Days of Night (Sony/Ghost House Pictures), based on the Steve Niles and Ben Templesmith graphic novel about savage vampires let loose on an Alaskan town. Being the first horror movie in a month where audiences are starving for them should help this high concept horror movie starring Josh Hartnett and Melissa George top the box office with over $20 million. It will probably be the first choice for 17 to 25 year old audiences, although the neglected younger teen crowd might also be amused by the sports movie spoof The Comebacks (Fox Atomic), which might do okay business due to how easy it is to market the genre and a lack of strong comedies. (And let's not forget that underage teens might have to buy tickets to other movies to sneak into 30 Days of Night.)

Surprisingly, half the movies being released this weekend are adult-oriented dramas with strong star power, all of which will be fighting for the same group of moviegoers. Rendition (New Line), starring Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal and Meryl Streep, might suffer from some of the same problems faced by political thrillers like The Kingdom and Paul Haggis' In the Valley of Elah but it should still come out ahead of Ben Affleck's directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), starring his brother Casey, Morgan Freeman and Ed Harris. DreamWorks' teary drama Things We Lost in the Fire featuring the strong pairing of Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro, is an even darker drama that will have to rely on word-of-mouth to build on what should probably be a small opening weekend towards the bottom of the Top 10.

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for final figures based on actual box office.

This was a weekend for writer/directors to shine, but while there was a lot of star power on display in many of the new movies, it was the latest from playwright-mogul Tyler Perry that was able to bring in the biggest audience of his female African-American fans to see his third movie as a director, Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate). Featuring the return of Janet Jackson to the big screen for the first time since 2000's Nutty Professor II: The Klumps, Perry's latest play-turned-movie grossed an estimated $21.5 million its opening weekend in just 2,011 theatres, fewer than his previous two movies.

Tony Gilroy's corporate thriller Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.), starring George Clooney, came out just ahead of James Gray's third film, the police drama We Own the Night (Sony) starring Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg, both which ended up with roughly $11 million. Neither of the two new movies from respected writer/directors was able to keep The Rock's family film The Game Plan (Disney) from having a third strong weekend, dropping to #2 with $11.6 million.

Shekhar Kapur's Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), which returned Cate Blanchett to the role of the legendary British queen, followed up its lukewarm to hateful reviews with a disappointing opening in sixth place with just $6.2 million in 2,001 theatres.

Not much has changed, just really minor things based on theatre counts, generally more for Michael Clayton and Across the Universe and less for Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?, although the latter is still likely to be sitting pretty at the top of the box office both on Friday and for the weekend. What's bizarre is that there are only three movies playing in more than 3,000 theatres this weekend, and none of them are likely to end up in the Top 3. (Maybe Disney's The Game Plan if either of the adult thrillers fail to deliver.) With none of the new movies playing at more than 3,000 sites and none of next week's six new movies opening that wide either, one has to wonder how many screens will be showing to empty rooms this month.

Updated Predictions -

1. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $15.6 million N/A (same)

2. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) - $11.7 million +1600% (up .1 million)

3. We Own the Night (Sony) - $11.3 million N/A (same)

4. The Game Plan (Disney) - $10.8 million -35% (up .1 million)

5. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $8.1 million - 41% (same)

6. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $7.5 million N/A (down .1 million)

7. The Kingdom (Universal) - $5.6 million -43% (up .2 million)

8. Across the Universe (Sony) - $3.0 million +53% (up .3 million)

9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $2.3 million - 48% (down .1 million)

10. The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) - $2.2 million - 40% (same)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, marking the 6th Anniversary of our weekly box office analysis/preview in one form or another. (Anyone even remember what the column was originally titled back in its days pre-ComingSoon?) As is always the case in October, there are way too many movies and far too little time, and like last week, it doesn't seem like any of them will really break out, even if there may be a surprise or two.

Back when I thought Ben Stiller's The Heartbreak Kid was going to make $28 million last weekend--and no, I don't know what I was thinking--I assumed it would remain #1 for a second weekend in a row. Since that's not likely to happen, let's look at what the other possibilities are. The two strongest new movies are James (The Yards) Gray's police drama We Own the Night (Sony) and Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate), each opening in just 2,000 theatres with their own gender demographic that should help them bring in a decent amount of business, especially in the bigger cities. Neither of them is opening in as many theatres as Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.), starring George Clooney, which will expand into this weekend, and that movie is more likely to cut into the business for the Joaquin Phoenix-Mark Wahlberg cop flick than Perry's movie. With older guys having to choose between those two movies, that should allow Tyler Perry's avid fanbase of African-American women to help him get his third #1 movie.

We Own the Night will probably end up in a close race for second place with Clooney's corporate thriller and Disney's The Game Plan, while women and girls will also have other choices like Shekhar Kapur's period sequel Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), starring Cate Blanchett, or Julie Taymor's Beatles musical Across the Universe (Sony), which doubles its theatres after four solid weeks of gross in limited release. Both of those should end up in the bottom half of the Top 10, the latter having already done a lot of its business in big cities, and there should be a bit of a logjam between returning movies to fill-out the Top 10.

There's more info about the new movies after the jump but before you go there, why not sign up for the latest season of EZ1 Productions' Winter Box Office Game? It gives you a chance to take on the Weekend Warrior in trying to figure out which movies will make the most money this weekend. Check it out!

Not too many changes from Tuesday, except that The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) has been able to find a lot more theatres, and it's likely to be a strong draw for women and young girls who've read the novel or are fans of Austen, allowing it to break into the low end of the Top 10. Ben Stiller and the Farrelly Brotehrs' The Heartbreak Kid is still going to be the winner of the wekeend, while the other new releases will wind up below some of the returning movies with Fox Walden's The Seeker being helped by its ultra-wide release.

Updated Predictions -

1. The Heartbreak Kid (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $28.3 million N/A (down .2)

2. The Game Plan (Disney) - $14.3 million -38% (same)

3. The Kingdom (Universal) - $9.8 million -43% (same)

4. The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising (Fox Walden) - $8.4 million N/A (down .4)

5. Feel the Noise (Sony/Tristar) - $4.1 million N/A (down .1)

6. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony/Screen Gems) - $3.8 million -52% (up .1)

7. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $3.2 million -49% (up .1)

8. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $2.7 million – 35% (same)

9. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $2.0 million 1041% (new entry)

10. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) - $1.9 million -48% (down .2)