"Saturday Night Live's" Andy Samberg stars in Hot Rod (Paramount), an irreverent comedy that takes the humor of his popular SNL short films and turns them into a feature-length movie. It will make a play for the teen comedy audience currently held by I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, as it vies for positioning against New Line's Hairspray, which will release a special "Singalong" version this weekend, giving fans another excuse to see it again.

The toughest call this weekend will probably be Bratz (Lionsgate), a live action musical movie for teen and younger girls based on the popular doll line and cartoons that either will do a lot of business from its 'tween fans or be ignored just like other movies that try to cater to that fickle audience. It should be able to squeak into the Top 10 despite its moderate release.

Jennifer Lopez's hubby Marc Anthony plays legendary salsa singer Hector Lavoe in the biopic El Cantante (Picturehouse), which will get a moderate release into 600 theatres. It isn't as likely to get into the Top 10, but it should bring in a sizeable percentage of Latino salsa fans who aren't being catered to with other choices in theatres.

This Week's Predictions -

1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $56.8 million N/A

2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) - $35.8 million -52%

3. Underdog (Walt Disney) - $13.2 million N/A

4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal) - $10.5 million -45%

5. Hairspray (New Line) - $10.0 million -38%

6. Hot Rod (Paramount/SNL Films) - $9.7 million N/A

7. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $9.4 million -47%

8. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) - $7.0 million -40%

9. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $6.2 million -47%

10. Bratz (Lionsgate) - $5.5 million N/A

Last year, Will Ferrell's Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby reigned over the box office with $47 million, making it the comic actor's biggest opening movie. Paramount's animated family comedy Barnyard: The Original Party Animals, the third animated movie in three weeks, came in a distant second with a third that amount while many of the returning movies took huge hits. Neil Marshall's horror flick The Descent opened in fifth place with just under $9 million while the dramatic thriller The Night Listener, starring Robin Williams, opened in 10th place with $3.5 million in 1,300 theatres. The Top 10 made $116 million (most of that coming from Ferrell's movie) but with the combination of Bourne and The Simpsons Movie in its second weekend that amount should be easy to surpass.

The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal)
Starring Matt Damon, Julia Stiles, Joan Allen, David Strathairn, Paddy Considine, Albert Finney, Scott Glenn, Edgar Ramirez, Trevor St. John,
Directed by Paul Greengrass (The Bourne Supremacy, United 93, Bloody Sunday); Written by Tony Gilroy (The Bourne Supremacy, upcoming writer/director Michael Clayton), Scott Z. Burns (The Half Life of Timofey Berezin), George Nolfi (The Sentinel, Ocean's Twelve, Timeline), Paul Attanasio (The Good German), Tom Stoppard (Brazil, Shakespeare in Love, Empire of the Sun, Vatel, Enigma)
Genre: Action, Drama, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "This Summer Jason Bourne Comes Home"
Plot Summary: Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) is still trying to find answers to who he is and why he was turned into a CIA killing machine, and he starts to get closer when he learns about a new black ops organization called "Black Briar" whose director (David Strathairn) wants to keep Bourne from learning the truth.
Of Note: Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass reunite for the third (and possibly) final film in the Bourne "trilogy."

Review

Analysis: In 2002, Matt Damon had his first big solo hit when he took on the role of amnesiac CIA operative Jason Bourne for a new adaptation of Robert Ludlum's The Bourne Identity directed by Doug Liman. Damon had already established himself as an actor at that point, but the success of the movie was a surprise because it was a very different role for Damon and it was an organic action-espionage thriller in the vein of the earliest James Bond movies that didn't rely on CG and explosions. It made $27 million in only 2,638 theatres its opening weekend and then went on to make $121 million as word-of-mouth spread, turning a lot of heads and changing opinions of what audiences want in the summer. Three years later, Damon reprised the role for the sequel The Bourne Supremacy, this time directed by then little-known British filmmaker Paul Greengrass, but that nearly doubled the opening weekend of the original with a far more prominent release, and it was received almost as well as the original. The influence of the Bourne movies was fairly widespread as even the James Bond franchise looked at what worked in the Bourne movies when they relaunched it with Casino Royale last year, and the Mark Wahlberg action-thriller Shooter could also be compared to The Bourne Identity in terms of tone and feel, being more organic and character-driven than normal action movies.

The Bourne films have clearly elevated Damon to another level as a box office star, too. Since making the first two films, Damon has starred in a number of other political and espionage thrillers like Steve Gaghan's Syriana with his Ocean's 11/12/13 co-star George Clooney and Robert De Niro's The Good Shepherd, as well as co-starring in two Ocean's movies, neither of which have done as well as the two Bourne movies. In the most recent movie Ocean's Thirteen, Damon had a bigger part than in the first two movies, maybe since Steven Soderbergh realized that Damon is more of a draw then he was back in '01.

Returning from the previous movie is Joan Allen as Pam Landy, the CIA administrator who wants to try to bring Bourne in alive and find out what he knows, while Julia Stiles reprises the role of Nikki, which she played in all three movies, though this time she gets a bit more screen time as she tries to help Jason find answers. Both actresses have appeared in other prominent movies since The Bourne Supremacy, Allen for her noted role in Mike Binder's The Upside of Anger and Stiles starring in last summer's remake of The Omen. Joining the cast is Oscar-nominated David Strathairn (Good Night, And Good Luck.) and Scott Glenn as the new CIA directors that go after Bourne, while Paddy Considine (In America, Cinderella Man) plays a reporter who uncovers the truth about Bourne and the agency that spawned him, and the great Albert Finney also has a key role in the origins of Bourne.

Filmmaker Paul Greengrass has also come a long way since his first Bournce movie, having made the critically acclaimed United 93 in the year between, which didn't do particularly well in theatres but earned him an Oscar nomination for directing as well as numerous awards for his take on the shocking events of September 11. It was actually a return for the director to important political movies, having first made a mark with his Irish drama Bloody Sunday, and one can see a noticeable improvement in the director in the latest installment of the franchise.

Even though it's opening in a crowded marketplace, The Bourne Ultimatum is different than other summer blockbusters, being a smart thriller with a good-looking male star who has many female admirers, which is why the threequel will have fairly wide-spread appeal across the demographics, appealing as much to the over-40 male crowd as the 20-30 somethings with more appeal to women than other summer action movies, though it's more likely to bring in women over 20 rather than the teen set, who'll have other choices this weekend.

In 2004, The Bourne Supremacy made $18.4 million its opening day in 3,162 theatres and opening in 500 more theatres should help The Bourne Ultimatum do even better, even if the movie doesn't seem to be nearly as omni-present as the previous movie. The fact that it's opening later in the season might hurt, especially with New Line's Rush Hour 3 coming out next week and many people taking vacation in late August. The previous two Bourne movies were generally well-liked by critics and moviegoers with 82-83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and 7.4 – 7.5 among IMDb Users, and The Bourne Ultimatum promises to offer more of the same action and thrills while answering questions and wrapping up the series. The only thing working against the movie is a general innui towards sequels due to the anticipated but disappointing threequels earlier this summer, and Bourne's latest might be getting overshadowed by movies like Transformers and The Simpsons Movie.

Why I Should See It: Paul Greengrass and Matt Damon end their run on the "Bourne trilogy" with the most exciting movie yet.
Why Not: Could this be the end of the Bourne franchise?
Projections: $56 to 59 million opening weekend and $165 million total.

COMPARISONS

Hot Rod (Paramount)
Starring Andy Samberg, Isla Fisher, Jorma Taccone, Bill Hader, Sissy Spacek, Ian McShane
Directed by Akiva Schaffer ("Saturday Night Live"); Written by Pam Brady ("South Park", "The Loop", South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut)
Genre: Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Smack destiny in the face"
Plot Summary: Rod Kimble (Andy Samberg) is a would-be stuntman preparing for his greatest stunt ever, jumping over fifteen buses on his motorcycle in order to get money for an operation for his abusive stepfather Frank (Ian McShane).
Of Note: The first movie from the Emmy-nominated team that brought "D*ck in a Box" and other short films for "Saturday Night Live" including their hot new cast member Andy Samberg.

Review

Analysis: A few years ago, a movie starring a cast member from the popular NBC late night comedy show "Saturday Night Live" would only do modest business in theatres at best, Lorne Michaels having expended any good karma on the likes of Eddie Murphy, Mike Myers, Adam Sandler and then Will Ferrell. By comparison, the likes of David Spade, Rob Schneider, Chris Kattan and Jimmy Fallon weren't as consistent at convincing people to shell out their hard-earned money to see their movies. With that in mind, Hot Rod is the first movie released under Paramount's new SNL Films imprint, and it's the first movie produced by Lorne Michaels' SNL Studios since the 2000 flop The Ladies Man. Apparently, it's Andy Samberg's time to prove his mettle.

Along with director Akiva Schaffer and co-star Jorma Taccone, collectively known as The Lonely Island, Andy Samberg is one of the masterminds of the digital shorts that have become so popular on SNL and even moreso on YouTube, where the Emmy-nominated "D*ck in a Box" became the 4th most viewed video with over 20 million views. Classics like "Lazy Sunday" and a filthy rap from Natalie Portman have been equally popular on the internet. The question, as it is whenever a member of SNL breaks out, is whether the millions of kids who like Samberg in those shorts would be even remotely interested in a full-length movie featuring him playing a character. After all, Samberg is still one of the newer members of the cast and not nearly as well known as others who've made the jump. Certainly, a lot of the SNL cast who have cracked us up when doing three-minute skits on the show have had trouble maintaining that level for an entire movie. So far the most successful "SNL" skit turned into a movie was Mike Myers and Dana Carvey's Wayne's World, which was a smash hit, but other well-known characters like Julia Sweeney's androgynous "Pat" have bombed when given the chance on the bigger screen. The main character in Hot Rod isn't even a character from the show as much as a new creation ala Chris Kattan's Corky Romano or David Spade's Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star, neither movie which did very well, and it's unclear whether anyone who sees commercials for this movie will immediately associate it with those shorts they watched on TV or YouTube for free.

Samberg's joined by a couple strong supporting actors in Isla Fischer from Wedding Crashers and Ian McShane from HBO's "Deadwood," though neither of them are enough of a box office draw on their own or together to warrant credit in the commercials. Even having an Oscar winner like Sissy Spacek won't matter much since her fanbase probably won't have any interest in this kind of humor.

That said, there is an audience for dumb comedies, mostly the teenagers who will know Samberg and his cohorts, and the movie is probably being marketed in places where they converge, like MTV for instance, but Samberg has very little cred among anyone over 25 and the biggest challenge faced by Hot Rod is that many younger male moviegoers will be just as likely to want to see the PG-13 action-thriller The Bourne Ultimatum. Hot Rod doesn't look strong enough to entice the over-20 crowd away from it, especially since they won't be nearly as familiar with Samberg as the 13-to-18 crowd that might be more open to a silly comedy. One shouldn't expect many good reviews as this is the kind of movie that critics love to trash, and word-of-mouth might not help the movie get past next week's Rush Hour 3 or the new Apatow-produced Superbad, which should effectively cut off any chance of legs.

Why I Should See It: Because it's the first full length feature by the masterminds behind "Lazy Sunday" and "D*ck in a Box"
Why Not: Yeah, but watching those only required three minutes of your time. Can they keep the laughs going for nearly 80 minutes? (See my review for the answer.)
Projections: $9 to 11 million opening weekend; $30 million total.

COMPARISONS

Underdog (Walt Disney)
Starring Jason Lee (voice), Jim Belushi, Peter Dinklage, John Slattery, Patrick Warburton, Brad Garrett , Amy Adams (voice)
Directed by Frederik du Chau (Racing Stripes, Quest for Camelot); Written by Adam Rifkin (Mousehunt, Small Soldiers, Zoom), Joe Piscatella, Craig A. Williams
Genre: Adventure, Comedy, Family
Rated PG
Tagline: "One Nation, Under Dog"
Plot Summary: Mad scientist Dr. Simon Barsinister (Peter Dinklage) conducts experiments on an ordinary beagle, giving him super powers and the ability to speak, but "Underdog" (voiced by Jason Lee) chooses to use his powers for good, taking on a dastardly plot by Barsinister to destroy Capitol City.
Of Note: The popular '60s cartoon is brought to the big screen as a live action movie from Disney.

Analysis: It's been a while since we've had a live action movie based on a cartoon, maybe because they've been so hit or miss in recent years. Obviously, Walt Disney would love to have their movie, which is based on a non-Disney cartoon, find a similar audience to the 2002 Warner Bros. hit Scooby-Doo, but there's a lot of other factors at work here, one being that the movie seems to be catering only to kiddies, many of whom weren't even born when the "Underdog" cartoon was at the height of its popularity. The cartoon first created to advertise cereal debuted in 1964 and ran in syndication for many years with a number of revivals in the last few decades, but most kids will probably know Underdog from his annual stint at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Rather than using CG-generated animals for the talking canine hero, they're using real dogs and using computer CG to animate them, make them talk, etc. much like the process used for the 2003 comedy Good Boy!. Turning cartoons into live action/CG animated combos has had mixed results with the gamut running from 2000's The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle, a huge summer bomb, to the aforementioned Scooby-Doo and its sequel. (Ironically, the first Scooby-Doo opened against the first Bourne movie, which is promising for Underdog.)

The movie's the brainchild of Frederik du Chau, who used his background in animation to create the live action-CG talking animal combo Racing Stripes, a modest winter holiday hit. Unlike Disney's The Shaggy Dog from last year, this doesn't have a noticeable box office star holding things together and making it more interesting for adults, even though it is going to try to capitalize on the well-known name of the cartoon character. Of course, because of the process being used, the title character doesn't look even remotely like the famous cartoon character, looking more like a dog, which might make it more confusing to any kids who do know the character.

The voice of Underdog and his alter-ego "Shoeshine Boy" (Shouldn't that be "Shoeshine Pup"? Or is turning into a dog part of his powers?) are provided by Jason Lee, while his love interest Polly Purebread is voiced by the lovely Amy Adams. After starring in many of Kevin Smith's early films, most notably Mallrats and Chasing Amy, Jason Lee tried his hand at doing his own comedies without much success until his big break came a few years ago when he was tapped to headline the NBC TV show "My Name Is Earl." Lee has previous experience with Disney animated voicework, having played the villain in Brad Bird's highly-popular Pixar film The Incredibles, which also dealt with superheroes. Amy Adams is best known for her Oscar-nominated role in the 2005 ensemble indie Junebug, followed by roles in Will Ferrell's Talladega Nights and the recent comedy bomb The Ex, and she'll be starring in her own Disney movie this holiday called Enchanted. It's not quite clear if anyone even knows that it's these two actors providing the voices, since they're not exactly advertising it as such. Underdog's arch-nemesis Simon Barsinister is played by acclaimed little person actor Peter Dinklage, whose well-respected for his stagework and indie films like The Station Agent and having played the "angry dwarf" in Will Ferrell's Elf.

Obviously, Disney is trying to make some money based on the popularity of superhero movies in recent years by making a superhero movie out of a cartoon, and the techniques used to create Underdog gives them a chance to show off his superpowers with a lot more action scenes than normal family films. Disney already had great success with Pixar's The Incredibles as mentioned above, but in the last few years, family movies that use super powers as a plot device like Superbabies: Baby Geniuses 2 and last year's Zoom failed to find any significant audience. The same goes for the 20th Century Fox bomb My Super Ex-Girlfriend starring Uma Thurman, which did very poorly despite being a more entertaining superhero movie than Bryan Singer's Superman Returns (Oh, I'm going to get Emails for that one!)

Despite a number of things working in the movie's favor, Disney seems to be hiding the movie. Even though there have been plenty of commercials out there, they don't make the movie look very good, at least not compared to the clever teaser from a few months back that focused on the superheroics and comparisons to popular superhero movies like Spider-Man and Batman. (Part of Scooby-Doo's success could be attributed to a clever teaser a few months earlier that played off the Warner Bros' Batman franchise.)

The problem is that the older guys who might have liked the original cartoon character won't have much interest in Disney's take unless they have young kids, who really will be the only moviegoers interested in this. Maybe that's why Disney will be hiding the movie from critics, remembering how badly their movie based on the Disneyland ride The Country Bears did after being trashed by critics. (Ironically, my young nephew loved it, actually seeing it twice in movie theatres.) Still, few people beyond young kids will care about this movie, and while they should be able to convince their parents to take them, it's not likely to be a breakout smash looking like so many other bad talking animal movies.

Why I Should See It: Underdog was a fun cartoon and Disney's live action version is likely to pay suitable homage.
Why Not: That doesn't look like any Underdog I remember from the cartoons.
Projections: $12 to 14 million opening weekend and $38 million total.

COMPARISONS

Bratz (Lionsgate)
Starring Nathalia Ramos, Janel Parrish, Logan Browning, Skyler Shaye, Chelsea Staub, Anneliese van der Pol, Malese Jow, Stephen Lunsford, Lainie Kazan, Ian Nelson, Chet Hanks, Sasha Cohen, Jon Voight
Directed by Sean McNamara (Raise Your Voice); Written by Susan Estelle Jansen (The Lizzie McGuire Movie)
Tagline: "High School is about to get a makeover"
Genre: Comedy, Family, Animated, Musical
Rated PG
Plot Summary: Cloe (Skyler Shaye), Sasha (Logan Browning), Jade (Janel Parrish) and Yasmin (Nathalia Ramos), collectively known as "Bratz", are BFF's ("best friends forever" for those over 18) at high school but when a snooty classmate named Meredith (Chelsea Staub) tries to break up the group into cliques, they find they have to stand together and be themselves.
Of Note: The popular line of fashionable dolls come to the big screen.

Analysis: Of all the movies opening this summer, this is the one that I probably know the least about. I understand that Bratz are a type of high-fashion doll that young girls seem to love collecting and dressing up, and that this was produced by Avi Arad, the man behind many of Marvel's early superhero films, but this movie looks more like an attempt to mimic some of Lindsay Lohan's early successes by creating a comedy about high school.

Usually at this point in the write-up, I'd be talking about the stars and what they've done previously, but seriously, does it really matter? Does anyone care? Most little girls will probably just assume these are their dolls come to life rather than thinking of them as "actresses" (most critics will probably feel the same), but do little girls love these dolls enough to race out to see this movie? No, probably not.

There was a time when movies for young girls did fairly well, but after the success of Hilary Duff in The Lizzie McGuire Movie and Lindsay Lohan in Mean Girls, the Olsens' New York Minute bombed, as did Duff's Raise Your Voice. (Ironically, both the writer and director of Bratz have worked with Hillary Duff, on the two extremes of her career.) Every once in a while, you get a surprise hit for this audience like Jessica Alba's Honey or last summer's John Tucker Must Die, but Bratz doesn't have any popular 'tween stars so it's relying heavily on the popularity and name brand of the dolls. Unfortunately, the movie also looks like crap, which means that the ONLY people who might be interested are the young girls who like the dolls, and they might have trouble convincing parents to take them to see it. With that in mind, this is more likely to follow the tradition of movies like the Duff sisters' Material Girls which found a modest audience opening weekend but not much after that.

The trailer pretty much tells you all that you need to know, and when I watch it, I think it's telling me that I should find something else to do rather than sit through this movie, but as much as I want to laugh at the concept of a movie based on a toy line, I then remember that one of the biggest movie of the summer is Transformers and that doesn't even have a cool "Z" in its title! So yeah, maybe more brats will go to see Bratz then we think.

Why I Should See It: Despite the film's doll line roots, it looks like it treads similar comedy ground as Mean Girls or Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen.
Why Not: Without a Lindsay Lohan or an Amanda Bynes, is there any reason why young girls might want to see it besides the doll connection?
Projections: $5 to 7 million opening weekend and less than $15 million in total.

COMPARISONS

El Cantante (Picturehouse)
Starring Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Federico Castelluccio, Romi Dias, Vincent Laresca
Directed by Leon Ichaso (Piñero, Sugar Hill); Written by Todd Antony Bello, David Darmsteder, Leon Ichaso
Genre: Drama, Music
Rated R
Tagline: "Based on the true story of the King of Salsa, Hector Lavoe."
Plot Summary: From a modest background in Puerto Rico to the heights of superstardom, salsa singer Héctor Lavoe (Marc Anthony) had it all, including his loving wife Puchi (Jennifer Lopez), but his explosive career success was cut short by sex, drugs and the effects they had on him.
Of Note: The life and music of salsa pioneer Héctor Lavoe is explored in this new biopic produced by Jennifer Lopez.

Review (Coming Soon!)

Analysis: There've been a number of successful musical biopics in recent years--Ray and Walk the Line being the most prominent success stories--and though most of them have the same general premise of how talent can be cut down due to the introduction of drugs and excess, this new biopic of salsa singer Héctor Lavoe is different in that it's about a singer who will appeal to a certain demographic who know his music and might be interested in his life. This is very much a pet project for actress Jennifer Lopez and her husband, singer Marc Anthony, as they both know the impact that Lavoe had on the Latin community both here in the United States and abroad, so they bought the rights to the story in order to try to do justice to the life of a highly influential Latin singer. They made the movie independently on a relatively low budget before debuting it at the Toronto Film Festival, and eventually, it was picked up for distribution by Picturehouse.

Jennifer Lopez is no stranger to doing biopics about Latin superstars having made her breakthrough with Selena, based on the life of the popular Mexican singer. Lopez's husband of three years Marc Anthony has never acted before except in music videos, but his voice and background makes him the perfect candidate to play the role of Lavoe, and of course, that gives Lopez the opportunity to play Lavoe's domineering and omni-present wife Puchi, who many feel might have kept him alive a few more years than he might have without her. The popularity of both Lopez and Anthony as musicians, on their own and together, will be another big draw for the movie, both of them having sold millions of records in the U.S. alone, but especially among the Latin community. Anthony has had five #1 albums on the Latin charts in the last ten years, while Lopez is coming off her biggest success in the Latin market with her recent #1 Spanish-language single "Que Hiciste."

There's a reasonable question whether mainstream audiences know or care about Lavoe or a movie about him, but what doesn't show up in tracking is the number of older Latinos who loved Héctor Lavoe's salsa music, and many of those salsa fans that remember Lavoe will be doubly interested in seeing the newer generation of Latin star paying homage to him. Lopez and Picturehouse are counting that their movie will appeal to this very specific audience, and the movie is getting a moderate release into roughly 600 theatres in order to focus on areas with large Latin communities that will probably pick a movie like this over some of the other choices. Unfortunately, they might be the only ones aware or interested in the movie, and Picturehouse hasn't really bothered to market it to other audiences that might be interested in knowing more about Lavoe's music or be up for a biopic before the fall Oscar season comes around. The thing is that many independent movies geared specifically towards Latin audiences have found success leaving many people such as myself surprised about their success.

Why I Should See It: Hector Lavoe was an amazing musical groundbreaker with a terrific voice.
Why Not: Like far too many biopics, Lavoe is brought down by drugs and alcohol. Been there, seen it before.
Projections: $2 to 4 million opening weekend and $9 million total.

COMPARISONS

Next week, the return of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker in Rush Hour 3 while Neil Gaiman's fantasy epic Stardust comes to the big screen. And should we place bets whether After Dark Films finally releases the long-delayed Skinwalkers?