With the success of DreamWorks' Transformers in its first two and a half days, it seems likely that it will do slightly better on the weekend than originally predicted, likely to be somewhere between $60 and 65 million as it looks to take the second largest 4th of July opening away from Steven Spielberg's 2005 remake of War of the Worlds. On the other hand, Warner Bros' License to Wed, starring Robin Williams, hasn't fared particularly well in its first few days and our original prediction of just over $11 million looks doubtful at this point even with 200 more theatres being added tomorrow. The romantic comedy is likely to wind up in fifth place behind Universal's Evan Almighty unless it really rallies for business over the weekend, but it won't be helped by abysmal reviews.
(You can read more thoughts on the weekend after the updated predictions although we're going to take a break from previewing next week's box office so that everyone will check in when next week's column goes up on Tuesday.)
1. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $62.5 million N/A (+ $3 million from earlier week prediction)
2. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $31.0 million -34% (same)
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) – $17.2 million -49% (same)
4. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $8.3 million -45% (+ .2 million from earlier in week)
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) – $8.0 million N/A (-$3.2 million from earlier in week)
6. 1408 (Dimension) – $6.0 million -44% (same)
7. Knocked Up (Universal) - $4.9 million -35% (down -.2 mil.)
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $4.4 million -52% (- .2 mil.)
9. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $4.3 million -5% (+ .4 mill.)
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $3.2 million -43% (- .2 mill.)
The main expansion this weekend is Michael Moore's Sicko, which will be playing in over 700 theatres starting Friday, enough for it to make the same amount this weekend as it did last (around $4.4 million) but still ending up towards the bottom of the Top 10.
The real story this weekend is how many of the returning movies are losing screens and theatres with Fantastic Four and Warner Bros' Nancy Drew and Ocean's 13 all losing 800 theatres while Sony's Surf's Up losing over a thousand. Michael Winterbottom's A Mighty Heart is losing more than half its theatres. And what does that tell us? That there just isn't enough room for all these movies and theatres are quickly dumping anything that isn't bringing in a lot of business. With Transformers, Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard all being guaranteed moneymakers, theatres are keeping the screens for those and next week, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix is going to be vying for Spider-Man 3's record for widest release by opening in over 4,100 theatres on Wednesday, so expect that to quickly kill anything that hopes to remain in theatres besides the big 4.
Comments (2)
*Screams* HP 5 is coming out! Okay now that I have that out of my system, I find it very annoying that Warner Bros has decided to release the movie on Wednesday rather than the usual Friday. I wanted to compare how this movie would open versus the other four and now that's gonna be harder to do because of this shift in dates.
Nonetheless, I'm still seeing the movie on FRIDAY and I'm looking forward to it immensely:):):)
Posted by DeeDee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.comingsoon.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
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July 6, 2007 2:50 PM
Yeah, I know, it's really annoying... all they need to do now is do Tuesday previews at 8pm to make my life even MORE difficult. :)
Posted by EDouglas![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.comingsoon.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
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July 7, 2007 8:23 AM