After two months in the Top 10, having grossed nearly $140 million, Universal's hit comedy Knocked Up will be enjoying its last week in the Top 10, but one can't help but be impressed with the R-rated rom-com's success.

On Saturday, Catherine Zeta-Jones fans can catch an early sneak preview of her new romantic dramedy No Reservations or they can check out previews of the comedy Who's Your Caddy?, starring OutKast's Big Boi, both which open on July 27.

Last year, four new movies opened but none of them were able to dethrone Disney's blockbuster sequel Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest which stayed on top of the charts for a third weekend with $35 million. Of the new movies, Sony's animated feature Monster House did the best with $22 million, a weak number compared to other computer-animated films, but it was a home run compared to M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water, the filmmaker's biggest flop to date, making just $18 million in its first weekend. It might have lost some business to Kevin Smith's Clerks II, which grossed $10 million in 2,150 theatres. An even bigger bomb than the M. Night flick was the Uma Thurman-Luke Wilson action-rom-com My Super Ex-Girlfriend, which made just $8.6 million to open behind Smith's movie. The Top 10 grossed $137 million, which is approximately where this week's offerings should wind up or slightly higher.

This Week's Predictions -

1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal) - $38.5 million N/A

2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $36.2 million -53%

3. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $19.5 million -47%

4. Hairspray (New Line) - $17.6 million N/A

5. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $11.5 million -37%

6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) – $6.6 million -42%

7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) – $4.7 million -35%

8. 1408 (Dimension) – $3.1 million -38%

9. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $2.7 million -45%

10. Knocked Up (Universal) - $2.5 million -33%

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal)
Starring Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Jessica Biel, Ving Rhames, Steve Buscemi, Dan Aykroyd, Kevin Copeland
Directed by Dennis Dugan (Big Daddy, Happy Gilmore, The Benchwarmers, Saving Silverman, National Security); Written by Lew Gallo (provided the idea), Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor (Sideways, Election, About Schmidt, Citizen Ruth), Barry Fanaro (Men in Black II, Kingpin)
Genre: Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "They're as straight as can be, but don't tell anyone."
Plot Summary: Fireman Chuck Ford (Adam Sandler) agrees to help his best friend and colleague Larry Allensworth (Kevin James) by pretending to be his gay life partner in order to help Larry get his kids included on his life insurance policy, but when a bureaucrat becomes suspicious, their relationship becomes front page news and they have to move in together and really start acting like a gay couple.
Of Note: Comedy superstar Adam Sandler teams with "The King of Queens" Kevin James for another high concept comedy premise.

Review

Analysis: For the third summer in a row, comedy superstar Adam Sandler is back with a new high concept movie, although this one looks like it might be a bit of a tougher sell for his mostly young male fans as it pokes fun at homosexuality in a similar way as Sandler's past movies have taken on fatherhood (Big Daddy), therapy (Anger Management) and television remotes (Click).

In the last few years, Sandler has been jumping back and forth between high concept comedies like this one and more serious dramas, but it's the former that has been his bread and butter, and in the last ten years, he's starred in seven comedies that grossed over $120 million, first with The Waterboy in 1998, followed by the similarly successful Big Daddy. Last year, he starred in the high concept Click, Sandler's fourth movie to open with more than $40 million, although it wound up grossing just slightly more than his 2003 team-up with Jack Nicholson Anger Management. Earlier this year, Sandler teamed with Don Cheadle for Mike Binder's drama Reign Over Me, which continued the tradition of Sandler not being able to deliver box office with his dramas, and that grossed less than $20 million total. Fortunately, Chuck and Larry is more in line with Sandler's bigger movies, and it reunites him with Dennis Dugan, who helmed Sandler's breakout hit Happy Gilmore and his highest grossing movie to date Big Daddy, which made over $160 million in the summer of '99. Dugan recently the directed Sandler-produced The Benchwarmers, which also did decently. Even more interesting is that the screenplay for this movie was originally written by the writing team of Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor who won an Oscar for Payne's 2004 movie Sideways. The odd combination of those cutting-edge writers with Sandler's normal sense of humor could certainly help raise the quality of his latest comedy from low-brow to semi-medium brow.

Sandler's secret weapon for his latest movie is one Kevin James, better known as "The King of Queens" from his hit sitcom of the same name, but more importantly, he nearly stole the hit romantic comedy Hitch from under its star Will Smith, and helped it gross $177 million in February 2006. James certainly has developed a fairly large fanbase from his television show, which ran for nine years on CBS (Sandler even appeared on an episode of the show), and James' popularity from that show could help bring in older female audiences where Sandler wouldn't normally pull them in on his own. It's similar to how Sandler's teaming with Jack Nicholson for Anger Management helped that movie bring in a wider audience than his norm, as did his two movies with Drew Barrymore. The movie's other secret weapon is Jessica Biel and her hot bod as featured on the cover of this month's GQ magazine, a sure-fire way to determine if a man is straight or gay. The former "7th Heaven" star and current super-hottie plays the guys' attorney who is there to help protect their rights, but Sandler is also rejoined by a couple of returning co-stars from previous comedies, Steve Buscemi and Dan Aykroyd.

Except for romantic comedies like 50 First Dates, Sandler's movies tend to appeal to 15 to 25 year old guys and they might feel uncomfortable watching a movie about two guys pretending to be gay. Maybe this is why Chuck and Larry isn't tracking nearly as well as The Longest Yard or even Click, and why it's doubtful it will do as well as them despite what looks like a funny premise. Then again, the family values aspect of the story could have more of an appeal to women like some of Sandler's other relationship based movies. The subject matter of the movie might stir up controversy and be deemed somewhat homophobic, but wisely, they screened the movie for GLAAD (The Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation) who didn't give it a hearty thumbs up but did say that the movie had some redeeming values. Even so, even GLAAD might agree that a gay male audience might be more apt to check out Hairspray this weekend than an Adam Sandler movie. (Yeah, it's a common stereotype that many gay men love musicals, but hey, it's kind of true, too!) It certainly doesn't seem like Chuck and Larry might have the same kind of success among gay audiences as Frank Oz's In and Out which starred Kevin Kline.

This being Universal's first movie with Adam Sandler since his first two movies, Billy Madison and Happy Gilmore, the studio has been trying to get Sandler and Kevin James out there (no pun intended) to mainstream audiences, most recently during NBC's Thursday prime time comedy and with specials on Comedy Central, including an awkward musical appearance on Sandler buddy David Spade's "The Showbiz Show." It's hard to deny that Sony has mastered the art of marketing Adam Sandler as a comic star with their numerous movies and Universal certainly may have a harder time selling this one to a mass audience. For a while, the movie looked like it might have gotten an R-Rating, which actually might have been better because Sandler's male fans might have appreciated raunchier humor and certainly, Universal has had great success with Judd Apatow's R-rated movies The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up.

Although Chuck and Larry might not be the opening weekend slam dunk or home run (or whatever sports analogy you want to use) as Sandler's other films, it's less likely to be affected by the release of the 7th Harry Potter book than the Harry Potter movie, so with any luck, this will end up being Universal's 2nd #1 movie of the year with another on the way in two short weeks. Usually, Sandler's summer movies tend to have some longevity, but in the past, they've also opened earlier in the summer just as schools are letting out, while Chuck and Larry will have to face some heavy comedy competition from Fox's The Simpsons Movie next week. That might make it hard for Sandler's latest to find word-of-mouth business it will need to maintain its business among Sandler's normal young male audience.

Why I Should See It: However you feel about Adam Sandler, you gotta admit that Kevin James is pretty effin' funny, and the two together should offer a lot of laughs.
Why Not: It doesn't seem like the most politically correct comedy of the year.
Projections: $37 to 39 million opening weekend and roughly $120 million total.

COMPARISONS

Hairspray (New Line)
Starring John Travolta, Nikki Blonsky, Elijah Kelley, Michelle Pfeiffer, Christopher Walken, Amanda Bynes, James Marsden, Queen Latifah, Brittany Snow, Allison Janney, Taylor Parks
Directed by Adam Shankman (Bringing Down the House, The Pacifier, Cheaper by the Dozen 2, The Wedding Planner, A Walk to Remember); Written by Leslie Dixon (Pay it Forward, Freaky Friday, Just Like Heaven, Mrs. Doubtfire, upcoming The Heartbreak Kid)
Genre: Musical, Comedy
Rated PG
Tagline: "When you follow your own beat, the world will follow you."
Plot Summary: In 1962 Baltimore, Tracy Turnblad (Nikki Blonsky) is an overweight teen girl whose dream is to appear on "The Corny Collins Show", the local television dance program she watches every day after school with her friend Penny (Amanda Bynes), much to the frustration of her mother Edna (John Travolta—yes, you read that right). Tracy gets onto the show with the help of her friend Seaweed (Elijah Kelly) but winds up angering the show's evil star Amber Von Tussle (Brittany Snow) and her mother Velma (Michelle Pfeiffer), when she tries to integrate the black kids of Baltimore onto the show with the help of Seaweed and local recordstore owner Motormouth Maybelle (Queen Latifah).

Analysis: John Waters is a filmmaker whose cutting edge and in your face independent films have stirred up a lot of controversy since the '60s, but in 1988, he made his most mainstream film to date, Hairspray, teaming his cross-dressing diva Divine with a newcomer named Rikki Lake for a musical story about Waters' hometown of Baltimore in the early '60s, based around the popular television dance show craze of the time and the city's segregated community. Although the movie only made $7 million, it grew a cult following and in 2002, a musical based on his movie hit Broadway starring Harvey Fierstein in the Divine role, and it quickly found success, being nominated for thirteen Tonys and winning eight. Since then, it's been running successfully on Broadway as well as touring the country before staging a residency at the Luxor Hotel in Las Vegas for a five month run in 2006, with Feirstein returning to the role he originated (after Divine of course). In that time, it's become even more of a pop culture phenomenon, one that's very popular among girls and young women much like the musical Rent, which was brought to the big screen in 2005, but wound up making less than $30 million over the winter holidays. There even was a segment on the hit ABC show "Ugly Betty" which recreated numbers from the musical.

This film is another feather in the cap for producers Craig Zadan and Neil Meron, who not only spearheaded the Oscar-winning hit movie musical Chicago (more on that below) but also brought a number of musicals to television with movies based on Broadway's "Annie," "Gypsy" and "Cinderella." They've brought on board comedy choreographer-turned-director Adam Shankman who directs his first movie musical after helming many hit comedies, including Queen Latifah and Steve Martin's Bringing Down the House, Vin Diesel's The Pacifier and the comedy sequel Cheaper by the Dozen 2. (It must be some hell of an irony that Shankman's next movie will team him with his main competition this weekend, Adam Sandler.)

Hairspray is very much in the vein of The Producers in that it was a movie first, then became a hit musical and now it's being brought back to the screen, although in this case, none of the original Broadway cast have been brought on board, all of them replaced with a bunch of established screen actors and hot young talent. Shankman has assembled a pretty amazing cast but none are scarier than John Travolta playing Tracy Turnblad's mother Edna in full-on drag. What's funny is that this is Travolta's long-awaited return to movie musicals after nearly 30 years, having starred in the highest-grossing movie musical of all time Grease when it was released in the summer of 1988 and ended up grossing over $188 million. Even though this is also a movie set in the past, this is obviously a different role for Travolta, but he has been making avenues more into comedy in recent years with recent hits like Be Cool and even more recently with his biggest movie since Grease, the ensemble road comedy Wild Hogs. Travolta's movies have grossed over $2 billion in the United States, which is something to be said about him as a box office draw.

Likewise, Queen Latifah makes her return to musicals after being nominated for a Golden Globe for her supporting role in the hit movie musical Chicago, the second highest-grossing movie musical after Grease, when it brought in $170 million and won multiple Oscars including Best Picture. In general, Latifah has shown that she can hold her own in movies, having starred in the comedies Last Holiday and Beauty Shop, both which made over $35 million based on her alone, and she probably did more for the poorly-reviewed action-comedy Taxi than her co-star Jimmy Fallon.

'90s superstar Michelle Pfeiffer hasn't appeared in that many movies in recent years, but she makes her return to the screen for the first time in nearly five years (except for a voice stint in DreamWorks' animated bomb Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas) as the catty mother of Tracy's main competition, which she follows with another baddie role in the August fantasy film Stardust, based on the Neil Gaiman-Charles Vess graphic novel. (Pfeiffer's romantic comedy I Could Never Be Your Woman has been delayed for well over a year, but that should be out this year, too.) You might feel badly for Christopher Walken since he has to wake up next to Travolta's Edna every morning, but he plays the role of Tracy's father with his usual amount of trademark humor. Maybe we'll even get to see him dance like in the Fatboy Slim video! Nearly as surprising as Travolta in drag is the presence of X-Men's Cyclops aka James Marsden as dance show host Corny Collins, and yes, he also sings and dances.

Then there's the newcomers, most notably 18-year-old Nikki Blonsky from Great Neck, Long Island, who makes her screen debut as Traci Turnblad after being discovered in a nationwide audition process, and she'll have to carry the movie much like a young Rikki Lake had to in John Water' original movie. Of the film's younger cast, Traci's friend Penny will be the most recognizable because she's played by former Nickelodeon superstar Amanda Bynes, who has carried two semi-successful comedies, What a Girl Wants in 2002 and She's the Man last year, both which made over $30 million due to her strong draw among the same teen girls that would likely be interested in seeing this movie. Traci and Penny's competition is played by Brittany Snow, who has a bit of experience with catty high school behavior from her role in the 2006 surprise hit John Tucker Must Die. Young girls might also want to see the movie in order to swoon over Zac Efron from Disney's blockbuster television smash "High School Musical" as the dance show's hunky Link Larkin--this is only Zac's second big screen role--or the up 'n' coming Elijah Kelly. Either way, this is a hugely diverse cast that should appeal to a fairly wide audience of ages and genders, but mostly to women and girls.

Hairspray is an important movie for New Line, who hasn't really had a hit since 2005's Wedding Crashers, and this really is their biggest summer movie except for August's Rush Hour 3. In order to get the word out, they've pushed the movie heavily to theatres exhibitors with a huge singing and dancing presentation at ShoWest in Vegas with the entire cast in attendance, and they've created a variety of clever commercials and trailers to get across that the movie is a fun experience that's unlike the summer's other blockbuster sequels. It's a bit worrying that it's following in the footsteps of The Producers movie musical, though that movie didn't add very much beyond what the stage show had to offer and it was crippled by terrible reviews, while Hairspray is already being better received with stronger reviews. It also already has a fairly large built-in audience due to the love of period musicals and it's going to remind more than a few people of the hugely successful musical Grease, which as mentioned above, starred Travolta. (Talk about synergy!)

The movie's also getting pushed heavily to the African-American community, since they might be interested because of Latifah and its the story of Baltimore kids fighting segregation in the '60s (and it could put a crimp on the success of Focus Features' Talk to Me in its second weekend). Because of this, one can expect the movie to do very well in urban areas, but New Line is opening the movie very wide, into over 3,000 theatres, and it probably will do better in some areas than others. Fortunately, it's one of the few musicals to get a PG rating, which means that even the youngest girls who might love the musical soundtrack will be able to see the big screen movie with or without their parents. Unfortunately, its opening weekend could be hurt by the release of the 7th Harry Potter book which will have many young girls glued to their reading chairs on Saturday, but Hairspray is very much the kind of movie that might open decently but will then find an even bigger audience through word-of-mouth much like Universal's summer hit Knocked Up. Don't be too surprised if it does upwards of four times its opening weekend by the end of the summer.

Why I Should See It: Waters' original movie is a cult favorite, and the success of the musical certainly should be an indicator of how much fun this movie will be.
Why Not: I think watching a movie with John Travolta in drag is a pretty damn good reason, don't you?
Projections: $16 to 18 million opening weekend and $75 to 80 million total.

COMPARISONS

Next week, "Simpsons! Meet the Simpsons! They're a modern Springfield family!" In case you missed the 400 episodes of their TV show, here's your chance to catch-up with The Simpsons Movie, and Catherine Zeta-Jones and Aaron Eckhart are heatin' up the kitchen in No Reservations. Also, After Dark Films releases the long-delayed werewolf thriller Skinwalkers, Linday Lohan is a stripper who states I Know Who Killed Me, OutKast rapper Big Boi asks Who's Your Caddy? and this week's Chosen One, Danny Boyle's sci-fi space opera Sunshine opens wide.