Last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest stayed on top of the charts with $62.5 million (a 54% drop from its record-setting opening weekend), while two comedies--the Wayans' Little Man and the third wheel romcom You, Me and Dupree--vied for second place, each making just over $21 million. (The Wayans won that battle by less than $100,000.) The Top 10 at the box office grossed roughly $148 million, which is likely to be topped thanks to the return of Harry Potter.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $79.5 million N/A

2. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $36.8 million -48%

3. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $17.8 million -39%

4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $9.3 million -47%

5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) - $5.6 million -45%

6. Captivity (After Dark Films) - $4.9 million N/A

7. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $4.7 million -46%

8. 1408 (Dimension) - $4.1 million -42%

9. Knocked Up (Universal) - $3.3 million -33%

10. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $2.4 million -32%

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.)
Starring Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, Emma Watson, Helena Bonham Carter, Robbie Coltrane, Ralph Fiennes, Michael Gambon, Richard Griffiths, Jason Isaacs, Gary Oldman, Alan Rickman, Fiona Shaw, Maggie Smith, Imelda Staunton, David Thewlis, Emma Thompson, Julie Walters
Directed by David Yates (The Tishborne Claimant, "Sex Traffic" and "Girl in the Café" cable films); Written by Michael Goldenberg (Bed of Roses, Contact, Peter Pan)
Genre: Action, Adventure, Fantasy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "The Rebellion Begins!"
Plot Summary: In his fifth year at Hogwarts, Harry Potter (Daniel Radcliffe) continues to have problems, particularly with the return of the evil Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) and a new Professor for Defense of the Dark Arts, Dolores Umbridge (Imelda Staunton), who's usurping control over the school with the mysterious absence of Professor Dumbledore (Michael Gambon). With a group of older wizards reforming the Order of the Phoenix to fend of Voldemort, Harry, Ron and Hermione take matters into their own hands, banding a group of students together as "Dumbledore's Army" to prepare themselves in case Voldemort attacks the school.
Of Note: The entire cast is back for the fifth movie based on J.K. Rowling's bestselling series of fantasy novels, this time with a fourth new director and a brand new screenwriter.

Mini-Review: As Rowling moved into ever-darker territory in the fifth installment of the young wizard's adventures, the film does the same, cleaning the slate with an entirely new creative team yet feeling very much like a mash-up of the last two films. In a way, you have to feel somewhat bad for director David Yates and new screenwriter Michael Goldenberg for having to make their debut with one of Rowling's weaker efforts (in this writer's humble opinion), but wisely, they omit many unnecessary story elements and condense other things to keep things moving at a brisker pace than the book. It's clearly the darkest Potter movie yet with parts that might be too scary for younger kids and others that might be too grim to those who've become accustomed to all the Hogwarts fun. Then again, it's hard not to be amused and entertained by Imelda Staunton's scene-stealing turn as the tea-sippin', kitty-lovin' Nazi in pink Dolores Umbridge, a loopy character from the Gilderoy Lockhart mold with far more malevolent intentions underneath her supposedly sweet exterior. (She even allows fellow cat-lover Mr. Filch to take a more active role in the film's story than in the book.) It's hard not to be blown away by how Daniel Radcliffe has grown as a dramatic actor and the rest of the young cast also deliver convincing performances, including newcomer Evanna Lynch as the trippy Luna Lovegood. There definitely doesn't seem to be nearly as much action as the last few movies, but there are some jaw-dropping aerial shots of the city of London and a climactic battle with Voldemort inside the Ministry of Magic--an impressive coup in production and set design--which makes the last installment's ending seem tame. (If you get a chance, try to catch the movie in IMAX 3D, because the 3D adds a lot to the experience in that final action sequence.) Despite any doubts one might have going in, David Yates has taken the Potter challenge head-on, making one of the first Potter movies to greatly improve upon the original book. Rating: 9/10

Read this week's Battle Cry, "Does Potter Stand a Chance?"

Analysis: In 1990, J.K. Rowling had an epiphany, coming up with the idea of a boy wizard attending a school to learn magic, and after finishing her first manuscript for "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" in 1995, she shopped it around before it was released by Bloomsbury in the UK and Scholastic in the United States. Three more novels followed, nearly one a year between 1997 and 2000 until Rowling decided to take a break, but in that time, they had become huge bestsellers, selling millions of copies of each book and starting an amazing phenomenon that spanned age and gender.

During Rowling's break, Warner Bros. started to produce a series of movies on the books, the first one coming out in November 2001, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, which set a new opening weekend record of $90.3 million, and it was followed a year later by Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, which made slightly less money opening and overall. Rowling's fifth novel Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, released in June 2003, was the first book since the release of the first two movies, and it only helped to intensify the fan craze to the point where people would stand in line overnight to get their hands on the book, then devouring it in one sitting.

What's amazing about the movie version of Order of the Phoenix is that it's the fifth movie in a franchise that's been able to retain almost the entire ensemble cast since the very first movie, the one exception being Richard Harris who passed away before the third movie. Back in 2001, the three main kids who played Harry (Daniel Radcliffe), Hermione (Emma Watson) and Ron (Rupert Grint) were unknowns, but now they're all huge stars, despite all of them doing very few other projects. All three are back of course, as are the popular Hogwarts professors and headmasters, played by fine thespians like Michael Gambon, Alan Rickman, Emma Thompson and Maggie Smith. All of Harry's friends and mentors are also back including Robbie Coltrane as Hagrid, David Thewlis as Remus Lupin and Gary Oldman as his godfather Sirius Black, but of course, Ralph Fiennes is also back reprising his role as the evil Lord Voldemort after being introduced at the end of the last movie.

The big new addition to the cast for this movie is Imelda Staunton, the Oscar nominated star of Mike Leigh's Vera Drake, playing Professor Dolores Umbridge, the new Defense of the Dark Arts professor who throws Hogwarts into a tizzy as she becomes the Ministry of Magic's eyes and ears on how the school is teaching young wizards. The character is a huge catalyst for a lot of what happens in the book, and it's not much of a stretch from Staunton's previous role as the contradictory principle in Hilary Swank's Freedom Writers earlier this year. The other new addition is Tim Burton's wife Helena Bonham Carter as Bellatrix Lestrange, Sirius Black's cousin who helped Voldemort rise to power as one of the first female Death Eaters. Carter has mainly been appearing in her hubbie's movies like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Planet of the Apes, which should prepare her to take on the action scenes required of the character in the movie.

While a lot of the cast is back, the biggest change comes in the creative team as the series takes on its fourth director David Yates, making only his second feature film with Order of the Phoenix (talk about a trial by fire) after directing many award-winning television movies and shorts. He obviously must be doing a good job because the producers have retained his services for the sixth movie Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, due out in November '08. Not only do they have another new director, but this is also the first Harry Potter movie not adapted and written by Steven Cloves. Instead, they gave him a break and brought on Michael Goldenberg, the writer of Contact and Peter Pan, for the movie, while Yates has brought in a lot of his own people including composer Nicholas Hooper and editor Mark Day, both new to the Potter mythos.

There's also a lot of excitement for the release of the 7th and final Harry Potter novel on July 21, which will be a huge event in itself, having already sold 12 million copies in the U.S. alone, and that's creating a lot of interest in the fifth movie, and it could create a bump for the movie in its third or fourth week. Adding to that excitement is the fact that the fifth movie is following the very popular Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (winner of a recent ComingSoon.net poll), which made $102.6 million its opening weekend after an opening day of $40.1 million. Over the holidays, it became the second highest grossing movie in the series following Sorcerer's Stone. Order of the Phoenix is the second Harry Potter movie to open during the summer after the Alfonso Cuaron directed Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, but it's also the first movie to open on a Wednesday. Opening earlier in the week could seriously cut into the amount it makes over the weekend, but maybe Warner Bros. figured that opening two days earlier would make it easier for people to see the movie opening week rather than facing sell-outs over the entire three-day weekend. The last movie made $120 million in its first five days although the last two days were much lower because they landed on Monday and Tuesday with school in session. Fortunately, school is out everywhere, which wasn't the case with any of the previous movies including Azkaban, and that means that younger fans of the books will be able to rush out to see it on Wednesday and Thursday rather than wait until Saturday, so it could spread that business out more and it should easily be able to make more in its first five days than Goblet of Fire and Azkaban.

Like the last installment, Order of the Phoenix is opening day and date in IMAX theatres, this time with certain sequences shown in IMAX 3D, making this format the first choice for those who live in cities where it's available in IMAX. We've already seen how IMAX dollars help movies like 300 and Spider-Man 3 exceed expectations, since the theatres are bigger so they hold more people, plus the ticket prices tend to be 50% higher than the norm, which means it seriously bolsters the per-theatre average. So far, the box office take of all movies that have played in the format (including Goblet of Fire) have been greatly bolstered by it. Order of the Phoenix is also shorter than the previous two installments, 2 hours and 18 minutes compared to 2 and a half hours for Goblet of Fire. It might not be too significant in terms of getting more showings per screen though it is getting away from the "longer is better" mentality.

Despite the new creative team, Order of the Phoenix continues the dark nature of the series that began with the last movie, the first to get a PG-13, which means that parents aren't as likely to bring their younger kids. As we saw, that really didn't hurt the success of the movie as the younger kids who saw the earlier movies had gotten old enough to see the later ones. A lot of the fifth book builds up to a battle between the Order of the Phoenix and Lord Voldemort and his Death Eaters, and the commercials and trailer mainly focus on that aspect of the story, possibly in hopes of exciting the action buffs that'll need some big money scenes now that Quiddith doesn't play as big a part in the movies.

So far, early reviews of Order of the Phoenix are very good, some critics claiming it to be the best movie so far. Not that it matters, because the diehard fans of the series aren't going to let any of the negative reviews keep them away from seeing the new movie opening week. With hundreds of midnight shows on Tuesday, most which should sell out, Wednesday should be a big day for the movie. Although it won't be setting any weekend records for reasons mentioned above, Warners Bros. will be looking to set a new Wednesday opening record, currently held by Spider-Man 2 with $40.4 million, which seems very possible considering the opening day for Goblet. Warner Bros. will be opening the movie as wide as humanly possibly, possibly giving Spider-Man 3 a run for the widest opening movie ever, and though many theatres will want to keep current hits Michael Bay's Transformers and Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille, there should be plenty of room for Order of the Phoenix to get the screens needed to fill the demand for the movie, especially with it opening in 300 more theatres than the last Harry Potter movie.

Why I Should See It: Because you've read all the other books and seen all the other movies, so why on earth would you miss this one?
Why Not: You're the one person reading this who hasn't read a single Harry Potter book or seen a single Potter movie. What's wrong with you??
Projections: $42 to 45 million on Wednesday (including midnight previews), another $22 to 23 million on Thursday and $78 to 80 million over the weekend. (Roughly $140 to 145 million in five days.) Look for it to wind up somewhere between $260 and 280 million total.

COMPARISONS

Captivity (After Dark Films)
Starring Elisha Cuthbert, Daniel Gillies, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Laz Alonso, Michael Harney
Directed by Roland Joffé (The Mission, The Killing Fields, The Scarlet Letter); Written by Larry Cohen (Phone Booth, Celullar, Maniac Cop), Joseph Tura
Genre: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "Abduction. Confinement. Torture. Termination."
Plot Summary: Fashion model Jennifer Tree (Elisha Cuthbert) is loved by everyone, but a stalker loves her a bit too much, drugging and kidnapping her from an event and keeping her held in a cell where she's put to all sorts of sick and disgusting tortures until she meets Gary Dexter (Daniel Gillies), another prisoner of the madman, and they try to escape together.
Of Note: Frankly, I'm speechless just thinking that someone would want to make a movie about someone being kidnapped and tortured.

Interview with Elisha Cuthbert (by Ryan Rotten)

Analysis: The debate might rage on whether the final nail in the "torture porn" coffin has been hammered in by the disappointing turnout for Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II, which has grossed less in total than the original movie did opening weekend, but it certainly doesn't look very good, especially after similar problems faced by Fox Atomic's The Hills Have Eyes II and Turistas. This new movie from Courtney Solomon's After Dark Films takes the premise one step further, as it deals with the abduction, imprisonment and torture of a famous model played by Elisha Cuthbert, and it's meant to be scarier, since it's set more in the real world, rather than in one full of mutants or cannibal hillbillies.

Surprisingly, this horror-thriller is the latest movie from noted British director Roland Joffé, who helmed such high brow films as The Mission and The Killing Fields. Not as surprising is the fact that it's the latest attempt to create a vehicle for Elisha Cuthbert, former star of Fox's "24", who returns to horror after the less than successful remake of House of Wax, co-starring Paris Hilton, and after her last movie The Quiet bombed quite badly. Her co-star Daniel Gillies isn't as well known, although he appeared in Spider-Man 2 as John Jameson, the astronaut son of J. Jonah Jameson, and then appeared as Wickham in Keira Knightley's Pride & Prejudice.

This is very much playing to the horror crowd, but it's also going for the indie/art film crowd with promotions on the Sundance Channel, maybe to avoid the demise of torture porn by selling itself as an intelligent psychological thriller ala William Friedkin's Bug. This might keep it from being lumped in with Hostel or the other gory horror movies. More importantly, this is the latest attempt by Courtney Solomon's indie distributor After Dark Films to have a hit, having not had very much luck since the company's debut, Solomon's ghost film An American Haunting and their first HorrorFest last year. One of the movies from last year's HorrorFest, the Spanish thriller The Abandoned was given a regular theatrical release with a marketing push by After Dark's "big brother" Lionsgate, but it barely made over a million dollars despite a wide release into a thousand theatres. (It lost half those theatres the following week, which is likely to be the case here, too.)

Captivity got a lot of negative publicity when the MPAA forced them to take down a series of billboard posters that featured the words of the tagline over disturbing images of Cuthbert being tortured with tubes up her nose. At that time, the movie was supposed to come out on May 18, but After Dark then moved it back two months to July 13, maybe to work up another marketing campaign. (Some might remember Lionsgate having similar problems with Saw II which actually drew more attention to the movie.) Moving it to Friday July 13 could actually have been a smart movie, since horror movies and thrillers have done well on the date in the past, seen the most recently with DreamWorks' hit thriller Disturbia which made nearly $9 million on Friday, April 13. Unfortunately, the very nature of this kind of movie probably won't appeal to mainstream moviegoers, although there might be some morbid curiosity about it. It's not likely that After Dark Films will screen a movie like this for critics although it already opened in the UK where it got less than favorable reviews as per Rotten Tomatoes.

After Dark is releasing the movie fairly wide into over 1,500 theatres, and though there won't be very much crossover audience between this and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, except maybe from the guys who want to abduct Emma Watson (oh, no, he didn't!), this movie probably won't appeal to anyone except for 18 to 25 year old guys that are already into sick horror movies. It's highly doubtful that many women will want to be anywhere near the theatres showing the movie, especially considering the type of guy that's likely to be in the audience, because they might be given bad ideas. Either way, if Captivity really puts an end to the "torture porn" genre than certainly no one's going to be missing it.

Why I Should See It: Fans and stalkers of Elisha Cuthbert might want to see this for her. Those who aren't fans, might find it fun to watch her getting tortured, though I'd suggest psychological help if that's your motivation to see this.
Why Not: The premise behind the movie seems rather sensationalistic and exploitative, something which might not go over well with mainstream moviegoers, particularly women who face this sort of terror daily.
Projections: $3 to 5 million opening weekend and less than $12 million total.

COMPARISONS

Next week, Adam Sandler bats for the other team with Kevin "The King of Queens" James in I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, John Travolta dons a dress in the John Waters influenced musical Hairspray, and by comparison, Danny Boyle's sci-fi thriller Sunshine, in which Cillian Murphy flies a spaceship carrying a bomb into the sun, seems kind of ordinary.