License to Wed should be able to make about the same amount in its first three days as it does over the three-day weekend following the holiday, although one shouldn't expect it to do that much better than Mandy Moore's last recent romantic comedy Because I Said So in the long run.

Michael Moore's Sicko should add a few hundred more theatres this weekend, which should help it maintain its position in the Top 10, although it's doubtful we'll be seeing any numbers close to Fahrenheit 9/11 at this point.

IFC Films may try to expand their crime-comedy You Kill Me into a few hundred theatres in select cities, though its performance in less than 50 theatres doesn't bode well for a strong expansion.

Last year, the sole new movie opened on the Friday after the 4th of July and that was the Disney sequel Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which became the first movie to break Spider-Man's 2002 opening weekend record with $135.6 million (which would later be broken by Spider-Man 3.) It helped the Top 10 amass an astounding $200 million over the weekend, but with this weekend's two new movies doing a lot of business earlier in the week, it's doubtful we'll see those kind of numbers over the weekend.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $59.3 million N/A

2. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $31.0 million -34%

3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) – $17.2 million -49%

4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) – $11.2 million N/A

5. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $8.1 million -46%

6. 1408 (Dimension) – $6.0 million -44%

7. Knocked Up (Universal) - $4.9 million -34%

8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $4.6 million -50%

9. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $3.9 million -14%

10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $3.4 million -43%

Check back over the next few days for regular updates on how Transformers is faring at the box office and a regular Thursday update on the weekend.

Transformers (Paramount/DreamWorks)
Starring Shia LaBeouf, Tyrese Gibson, Josh Duhamel, Anthony Anderson, Rachael Taylor, Megan Fox, John Turturro, Jon Voight, Bernie Mac
Directed by Michael Bay (Armageddon, Bad Boys, The Rock, The Island, Pearl Harbor); Written by Roberto Orci and Alex Kurtzman (The Island, Mission: Impossible III, upcoming Star Trek)
Genre: Sci-Fi, Action, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Their war. Our world."
Plot Summary: Sam Witwicky (Shia LaBeouf) has finally bought his first car, a banged-up Corvette, and he's ready to make moves on the girl of his dreams Michaela (Megan Fox) when he discovers that his car is actually a robot from another planet who is caught up in a never-ending battle with other talking robots that also change into cars and planes and other things. But that's not particularly odd, because this is a Michael Bay movie.
Of Note: Summer popcorn blockbuster mainstay Michael Bay takes on Hasbro's popular Transformers line in a fast-paced sci-fi action flick.

Mini-Review: It's not easy to rave about this movie, if only because I've never really understood the appeal of Transformers; seeing them in the real world doesn't help matters very much. I'd also seen a couple of the scenes twice before, so parts of the movie had already expended their novelty. Still, as a fun and entertaining popcorn flick, Bay's latest offers a lot of laughs and entertainment for your summer blockbuster dollar. At times, it's a bit much, especially the number of characters added as comic relief--Bernie Mac, Anthony Anderson and John Turturro are just three--because Shia Labeouf is more than capable of handling that himself. There's also a bit too much cutesy Spielberg-like things in the form of Bumblebee and a Decepticon that looks like the bot from "Short Circuit." The real drive of the movie comes from the amazing combination of ILM's CG robots and the way they're used by Bay in his inimitable action scenes, but unlike "Live Free or Die Hard," Bay's movie relies so heavily on CG FX that it's hard to not be taken out of the movie every time that the robots start talking. Sure, when you're watching a movie about giant talking robots, who cares about realism, right? That's really the biggest cross this one has to be bear as it tries to string together so much fun and action that it starts to get tiring, especially if you're not into Michael Bay's music video influenced filmmaking style. If you're a fan of the robots in disguise, you're likely to look past these problems; if not, then you might not be as thrilled, though you have to appreciate the technical achievements even if the movie as a whole is not something that will stick with you for long. Rating: 7/10

Analysis: In 1984, Hasbro introduced a new line of action figure toys using the simplest idea possible--robot toys that changed into various vehicles and objects--and who knew that over 20 years later, their "Transformers" would still be so hugely popular among the guys who played with them as kids? Even more, who thought they'd be the source of one of the summer's most anticipated movies? Back in their day, they spawned a series of Marvel comics and a hugely popular cartoon series, and many of the guys who grew up in the ‘80s and ‘90s became lifelong fans. In the last five years, the Transformers have been revived in large part due to the popular series of "retro comic books" released by Dreamwave, Devil's Due and IDW Publishing, and during that time, a pair of producers had been trying to get them turned into a movie, finally getting filmmaker Steven Spielberg on board, who convinced Michael Bay to direct it, realizing how he good he was at directing car chases and balls-to-the-wall action scenes. (This isn't the first movie based on the "Transformers" characters though, as the cartoon was spun-off into an animated feature film released in the summer of 1986, although the $5 million it made in theatres is chicken scratch even by those standards.)

The movie has been hyped up for a long time, first back when Bay was doing press for his last movie The Island, but then it was teased at last year's San Diego Comic-Con as well. DreamWorks quickly scooped up a 4th of July release knowing that the date has a history for great earth invasion movies from Independence Day to the two Men in Black movies and Steven Spielberg's take on War of the Worlds two years ago. Bay's relationship with the 4th of July goes back to Armageddon, which made $54 million over its first five days, but went on to gross over $200 million over the rest of summer. Three years later, Bay's Pearl Harbor just missed that mark after opening over Memorial Day. His 2004 sequel Bad Boys II starring Will Smith wasn't able to grab the expected 4th of July weekend, but it did just fine the week after. In 2005, Bay's sci-fi flick The Island, starring Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johansson, became Bay's first bomb, grossing $100 million less than Bad Boys II.

Michael Bay has gathered another great cast, headlined by Steven Spielberg's not-so-secret weapon, 21-year-old Shia LaBeouf, who has been having quite a year, first starring in the hit thriller Disturbia, followed by a starring voice part in Sony's animated Surf's Up. Otherwise, the movie's been cast fairly well to offer something for everyone including African-American audiences with been fairly well cast to offer something for everyone, including a number of African-American stars like Tyrese Gibson, Bernie Mac and Anthony Anderson, each adding their own flavor. Mac probably has the most experience appearing in summer action blockbusters, having been brought on for the failed sequel Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle in 2003. The movie also stars experienced dramatic actors like Johns Voight and Turturro, both whom have starred in big summer movies, though neither is much of a draw. More importantly, the producers were wise enough to bring Peter Cullen back to voice Optimus Prime, the leader of the Autobots, like he did in the cartoons, something that will be a very popular decision among fans, while having his Decepticon counterpart Megatron being voiced by one Hugo Weaving AKA Mr. Smith from "The Matrix" trilogy.

The Transformers have a huge diehard fanbase of guys who grew up with the toys and cartoons, who will likely rush out to see the movie as soon as possible, something that could heavily frontload the movie, but they also might go see the movie many times if they like it. Transformers is the true definition of an event movie, one that's been hyped up so much in recent months on sites like this one, places like MySpace and at events like the MTV Movie Awards so they may not be the only ones rushing out to see it. It's definitely in the vein of movies like Spielberg's Jurassic Park and its sequel The Lost World in that a lot of people will want to see it. (Check out how its scoring on the Yahoo Buzzmeter, which is impressive.) Also, not being a sequel will be a big plus in a summer full of them, and while it's mainly going to appeal to guys between 15 and 30, it'll have general appeal to teens and boys who'll think the robots are cool, and dads are likely to bring their younger boys to see the movie despite its PG-13 rating. Most people going to see the movie will be there for the promise of kick-ass action and cool giant talking robots, which they'll get in spades thanks to Bay's union with Industrial Light & Magic to bring the Hasbro toys to giant life, and though a lot of people will rush out to see the movie its first few days, there should be strong enough word-of-mouth and desire to see it again that it should continue to bring in repeat business over the next month. Since they were able to keep the initial cost of the movie down to $150 million, it's guaranteed to turn a profit, especially when you add in the worldwide box office.
The big problem is that the movie's going to have a harder time getting women to see it than Spielberg's War of the Worlds or the Men in Black movies, because not too many women were ever into Transformers toys, and the thought of a Michael Bay movie isn't that big a draw for them. Of course, the presence of the ultra-hot Shia and his romantic interest in Megan Fox's character, as well as hunks like Tyrese and Josh Duhamel might help, but really, this will be the type of movie that most women only will go to see to be with their men. (By comparison, the tracking for Transformers is slightly lower across the board than Spielberg's War of the Worlds, especially among women.)

The last time the 4th of July fell on a Wednesday, two movies (Cats and Dogs and Scary Movie 2) were released and both of them had their biggest days on the holiday, which shows how the placement of the holiday adds to frontloading. Spielberg's War of the Worlds did decently on its opening Wednesday ($21 million) but its first weekend was helped by the 4th of July falling on a Monday whereas the holiday falls two days before Transformers' first weekend, which will make the weekend look a lot less impressive despite making a boatload of money leading up to it. (Not that it has much to do with how the movie might fare, but there's an interesting power struggle going on behind the scenes of the movie that you can read about in this week's Battle Cry.)

Like the recent Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, the movie isn't just opening a day before the 4th of July holiday, but it's having preview screenings on Monday night (tonight!) starting at 8pm, which means that a lot of diehard Transformers fans will be rushing out to see it immediately, taking even more business away from its opening day to keep it from setting any records. Still, with almost everyone off work on Wednesday, the movie should do very well all day on Tuesday, possibly making it the movie's biggest day with $25 million or more. (For those keeping track, that would be a new Tuesday record topping Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest's $15 million plus Tuesday last year.) Things might drop-off a bit on 4th of July proper ($20 to 22 million). Thursday might be hurt by some people returning to work early, while Friday should pick up a bit with word-of-mouth and that business should hold up over the weekend. Either way, it will probably do roughly $120 to 130 million in its first week of business which puts it in good shape before it gets hit by Warner Bros.' Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix in its second weekend.

Why I Should See It: Michael Bay is the king of summer action flicks and taking on a popular license like Hasbro's Transformers toys has the potential for being one of the summer's biggest and best popcorn flicks!
Why Not: Giant talking robots are kind of lame if you think about it, even if they do change into cool cars and jets and stuff.
Projections: We're probably looking at around $67 to 71 million between Monday and Thursday and another $58 to $60 million over the weekend on its way to roughly $250 to $260 million total.

COMPARISONS

License to Wed (Warner Bros. )
Starring Robin Williams, Mandy Moore, John Krasinski, Eric Christian Olsen, Christine Taylor, Josh Flitter, DeRay Davis, Peter Strauss, Grace Zabriskie, Roxanne Hart, Mindy Kaling, Angela Kinsey, Rachael Harris, Brian Baumgarter
Directed by Ken Kwapis (The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, The Beautician and the Beast, He Said, She Said, "The Office", "The Bernie Mac Show"); Written by Kim Barker, Tim Rasmussen and Vince DiMeglio (Riddle: How many first-time screenwriters does it take to screw up a screenplay?)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "First came love… then came Reverend Frank."
Plot Summary: Ben and Sadie (John Krasinski, Mandy Moore) have been dating for six months and when he asks her to marry him, she agrees as long as they can be married by the family minister, Reverend Frank (Robin Williams) who puts them through a rigorous, relationship-testing series of marriage counseling to make sure they're truly compatible.
Of Note: Robin Williams teams with John "The Office" Krasinski and Mandy Moore for a high concept romantic comedy.
Review

Analysis: It's been a few months since we've been subjected to a romantic comedy, which gives this new one starring Robin Williams a bit of elbow room to entice older women who probably won't be as interested in Transformers or last week's Live Free or Die Hard. The main selling point for License to Wed is the premise of Robin Williams playing a reverend and subjecting a nice young couple to rigorous tests to see if they're worthy of being married, and it's the type of high concept that tends to work well at bringing people into theatres.

Williams had a pretty remarkable 2006, starting with his return to comedy with the high concept RV, followed by the low-profile indie thriller The Night Listener. In the fall, he starred in the political thriller (of sorts) Man of the Year, which opened with $12 million and made roughly $37 million total, and then Williams closed the year by appearing in two of the biggest holiday smashes, Ben Stiller's Night at the Museum and George Miller's animated penguin musical Happy Feet. There's no question that Robin Willliams' comedy routine has done him well for three decades and it continues to bring people into theatres, particularly kids and older audiences.

Obviously, romantic comedies geared towards older women fare better than ones towards teen girls, and that could make the difference with License to Wed, but the key to the movie's success might lie in the title, since movies about weddings tend to do very well among women and girls, and License to Wed's title has an air of familiarity to last year's romantic comedy hit Failure to Launch.
Unfortunately, the romantic couple at the center of the story isn't as tested at the box office as previous pairings that have headlined this sort of movie. John Krasinski is still very much an unknown box office commodity, being primarily known (and loved by women) for his role as Jim on the hit NBC sitcom "The Office" having only done small roles in movies like Dreamgirls and The Holiday. By comparison, Mandy Moore has had mixed luck at best. Her first movie A Walk to Remember, based on a popular book, did decently, but not a single movie of hers since then grossed more than $15 million (not counting Racing Stripes for which she provided her voice) until earlier this year, when she starred in the romantic comedy Because I Said So with Diane Keaton, and that made $13 million its opening weekend. (Oddly, she also starred in John Turturro's Romance and Cigarettes and Richard Kelly's Southland Tales which have been shelved indefinitely for years.)

Continuing Moore's run of adult-targeted rom-coms, License to Wed is opening on Tuesday in hopes that it might offer some counter-programming business on the night before the national holiday as well as do a bit of business on the 4th and in the days that follow as women take extra days off work for a 4th of July for vacation. It's not that odd for a movie like this to open around this time when women might look for something to see in theatres, although Robin Williams might exactly be very convincing to make this worth it. Sure, they do have John Krasinski's who's popular and likeable from "The Office" but we've seen far too hunky male TV stars not do much to get women into their movies, from "Grey's Anatomy" star Patrick Dempsey to Josh Duhamel (who stars in Transformers).

At first, one might think that the summer isn't a great time for a comedy like this, but just two years ago New Line's Wedding Crashers proved that a high premise comedy could do well over the summer. Except that had other things working for it, such as the R-rated humor which was geared more towards males and the date crowd and its two stars, Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn, both proven box office draws.
As is the case with many comedies, reviews aren't likely to be very good, something that can only marginally hurt the movie if women who find the commercials funny go to see it anyway, and reviews will do little to dissuade them. It's doubtful that the movie will get too far with Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix having such a big female audience, but one can expect that this movie was made for so little money that it won't be too hard to turn a profit if it makes $45 to 50 million.

Why I Should See It: If you're a fan of Robin Williams, you're likely to find this funny.
Why Not: If not, then you're likely to be screaming in pain throughout, because he really should have his license to joke revoked.
Projections: $10 to 12 million between Tuesday and Thursday and another $10 to 12 million on its way to $48 million total.

COMPARISONS

Next week, we return to Hogwarts for Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. Elisha Cuthbert won't be able to make it, cause she's in Captivity.