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WW 6/8 Update and 6/15 Preview

The big shake-up in the Top 10 comes in the form of something I forgot to address in the column earlier this week and that's the continued success of Judd Apaow's Knocked Up, the summer's first high profile non-sequel which grossed over $30 million last weekend and has been holding up very well, making consistently more than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End every day during the week. One can look forward to a photo finish between the two movies for third place over the weekend. Even if the Apatow comedy might put a crimp on some of the sequels already in theatres, Steven Soderbergh's Ocean's Thirteen will still come in at #1 with a somewhere close to $45 million due to the renewed interest in the franchise and the significant theatre count.

You can read more, as well as my mini-review of Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II, after the...

Updated Predictions

1. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $43.5 million N/A
2. Surf's Up (Sony) - $24.8 million N/A
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $20.8 million -33%
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $20.7 million -53%
5. Hostel: Part II (Lionsgate) - $19.6 million N/A
6. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $14.5 million -48%
7. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $5.8 million -43%
8. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $3.9 million -48%
9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $1.5 million -31%
10. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $0.8 million -40%

It's hard to tell if Surf's Up has generated much interest among kids, but older teens and adults will have plenty of other choices. With Shrek the Third and Pirates dropping, it's a pretty open market for a fun family movie, and Sony will be hoping it does as well as Open Season and finds more business before Ratatouille opens.

Meanwhile, I've seen Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II (mini-review below) and wasn't too impressed, even though I seem to be in the minority there as I am with Ocean's 13. My feelings are that it hasn't been promoted very well and that maybe there aren't as many diehard fans of the original movie as myself. Many might wait to see the movie on the DVD, which is likely to keep it under $20 mllion for the weekend even if there's enough of a horror market to keep this from completely bombing.

Hostel: Part 2 Mini-Review: I was a big fan of Hostel and of Eli Roth's previous film Cabin Fever (which I went back to watch because I liked Hostel) so maybe my expectations were set too high for a movie that classically shows how and why sequels rarely can live up to their predecessors. In trying to retain what worked in the last movie and changing direction at the same time, Roth doesn't really succeed in what he was trying to achieve by switching the sequel's main victims to women.

It's hard to talk about the movie without spoiling things, but it starts off with a rather pointless continuation from the first movie where we see what happens to Jay Hernandez's rightfully paranoid survivor. From there, the movie shows more of the intricacies of the hunting club responsible for the torture and killings in the last movie, but by filling us in on how things work, it further takes away any sense of mystery or tension, as we watch three girls travelling to Slovakia under similar false pretenses as the guys in the last movie. At the same time, the movie follows two long-time college buddies travelling there to torture and kill two of the girls after winning a bidding war for that honor. The latter story offers better acting and characterization, although Roger Bart's mild-mannered family man who's not sure he wants to go through with it goes through a rather hard to believe transformation in the third act.

Roth's biggest faux pas and the point where he really goes too far and lost me is when he systematically slaughters Heather Matarazzo in a gory scene after bashing her around a bit. As the nervous and nerdy art student, she's really the only truly likeable character and things go downhill from there. Sure, there's plenty of gore and a bit of nudity to boot for Roth's immature fans, but the violence is far more primitive and not nearly as effective at putting you on the edge of your seat while watching it.

The movie is lacking Roth's normal humor until the very end when one of the surviving girls gets revenge in an extreme one-two punch, but unlike the first movie where everyone who gets killed seems to deserve it, one has to question the fate of a few of the characters who seem more misguided than evil. Essentially, the movie builds up to a quick revenge sequence and then suddenly ends after a rather silly finale. Those looking for wanton gore and violence may be sated, but those expecting more from this talented filmmaker might be slightly disappointed. Rating: 5.5/10

The 20th Century Fox action sequel Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer will be next week's clear victor with an amount surpassing $60 million, while I'm not confident that Warner Bros.' update of Nancy Drew will be able to bring in that many teen and 'tween girls with its rather unknown star Emma Roberts.

Personally, I'll be shocked if Dimension Films' DOA: Dead or Alive makes more than $3 million in total now that they're dumping it into limited release with no advance notice or advertising. I do have confirmation that it is opening finaly if there was any doubt.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 7, 2007 5:57 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Preview and Box Office Analysis for June 8 - 10.

The next post in this blog is Hostel: Part II - What Did You Think?.

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