As we get into the weekend, things are looking even better for Dimension Films' 1408, which adds a few more theatres but more importantly, has received a ringing endorsement from Stephen King, so his fans may be less tentative about going out to see it this weekend. Though it still might be hard for it to do more than $20 million due to its generic numerical title, it should come very close. Things aren't looking great for Universal's Evan Almighty, starring Steve Carell, which has been getting scathing reviews and has little interest among the 20-something and older crowd. It still has a good chance of making over $30 million due to the kids and religious audience, but it's not looking good for it to have much of a shelf-life with much stronger films opening in the next few weeks.
(You can read more updates after the updated predictions and the jump.)
1. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $35.6 million N/A
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $26.0 million -55%
3. 1408 (Dimension) - $19.6 million N/A
4. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $11.0 million -44%
5. Knocked Up (Universal) - $9.5 million -33%
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $6.7 million -46%
7. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) - $6.5 million N/A
8. Surf's Up (Sony) - $5.3 million -44%
9. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $5.1 million -43%
10. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) - $3.5 million -48%
The only other movie opening in wide release is Michael Winterbottom's A Mighty Heart, and though Paramount Vantage has been advertising it heavily, the depressing subject matter might make it a hard sell in the middle of summer. It's still looking for a placement in the bottom half of the Top 10 but might have a hard time getting $7 million away from the summer blockbusters.
After reports of piracy, The Weinstein Company has decided to open MIchael Moore's SiCKO in a single theatre in New York City one week early and sneak preview it in other areas on Saturday night, and there's still some question if it will go wide (over 500 theatres) next week or not. Still, there's enough interest due to the controversy surrounding the doc that it should get into the Top 10, though it's doubtful the subject matter will bring in the type of business that Fahrenheit 9/11 did three years ago.
As far as next week's other new movies, Bruce Willis' Live Free or Die Hard will open on Wednesday and should do decent business in its first couple days (probably $20 to 25 million) but it will have to settle for #2 as it's overpowered on the weekend by Pixar's latest family film Ratatouille, which is likely to make over $60 million, much like their previous summer opening films.
The chick-flick Evening starring Clare Danes, Vanessa Redgrave, Meryl Streep and Glenn Close will probably end up near the bottom of the Top 10 or just on the outskirts depending on how wide Focus Features is able to get it.
