Hoping to get into the outskirts of the Top 10 is Focus Features' female-centric period drama Evening, based on Susan Minot's novel with an ensemble cast that includes the likes of Meryl Streep, Claire Danes, Vanessa Redgrave, Glenn Close and more, but really, it's probably only going to be of interest to older women who've read the book and that audience might be just as interested in catching Moore's latest doc.

With so many movies covering a lot of demographic territory, it won't leave a lot of room for many of the existing movies, and you can expect that Fox will give a lot of its Fantastic Four screens to Live Free or Die Hard, which means that the only returning movies that might hold any ground this weekend are the two originals Knocked Up and 1408.

Last year, there was a similar face-off between Bryan Singer's Superman Returns and Fox's fashionably funny The Devil Wears Prada, starring Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway, and though Superman was expected to be a clear-cut winner, the latter did far better as counter-programming than most expected, grossing $27 million in over a thousand fewer theatres than the Warner Bros. relaunch. The Top 10 grossed $139 million, a number that shouldn't be hard to beat as long as the two big movies meet up to expectations.

This Week's Predictions

1. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $62.4 million N/A

2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $39.6 million N/A

3. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $14.8 million -53%

4. 1408 (Dimension) - $11.3 million -45%

5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) - $9.2 million -54%

6. Knocked Up (Universal) - $7.1 million -35%

7. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $6.0 million -47%

8. SICKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $4.9 million N/A (Update: This is a more reasonable projection based on the 441 theatres that SiCKO is opening in this weekend.)

9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $3.5 million -52%

10. Surf's Up (Sony) - $3.4 million -48%

11. Evening (Focus Features) - $2.8 million N/A

Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox)
Starring Bruce Willis, Justin Long, Maggie Q, Timothy Olyphant, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Jonathan Sadowski, Cliff Curtis, Kevin Smith
Directed by Len Wiseman (Underworld, Underworld: Evolution); Written by Mark Bomback (Godsend, upcoming The Tourist), David Marconi (Enemy of the State)
Genre: Action, Crime, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Yippee Ki Yay Mo- John 6:27"
Plot Summary: Detective John McClane (Bruce Willis) is dragged back into action when the Feds ask him to locate and bring in a hacker (Justin Long) who may be involved in a cyber-terrorist threat against the country, but the real threat is a disgruntled government worker named Thomas Gabriel (Timothy Olyphant) who plans to use problems with the country's computer security system to bring it to its knees.
Of Note: Detective John McClane is back! Yippee Ki Yay, mothers, fathers, sisters and brothers!" (Props to Steve Carell's Evan Baxter for that HEELARIOUS way to avoid an R-rating!)

REVIEW
Interview with Len Wiseman

Analysis: Nearly 20 years ago, actor Bruce Willis took a break from his popular TV show "Moonlighting" to take on a very different role in an action movie called Die Hard, playing smack-talking New York policeman John McClane. Willis had a strong pedigree as a comic actor but wasn't being taken seriously as an action star until the movie came out and the rest was history, as it quickly enforced Willis as a box office star leading to a number of sequels and similarly successful action movies. It's been over 12 years since the third installment Die Hard with a Vengeance and after the events of 9/11, it seemed like Bruce Willis would be putting to rest any chances of another "Die Hard" movie, so it's pretty amazing to see him back in his most popular role. Willis' career has been rather spotty, despite doing three to four movies a year and making cameos almost everywhere from Ocean's Twelve to the more recent Nancy Drew. In the last few years, he's done Die Hard look-alikes like Hostage and played other cops like he did in 16 Blocks, but none of them found the success of the Die Hard franchise. After years of trying, Willis and producers finally found the right story to tell, one involving cyberterrorists destroying the country from within, and they called upon hot young director Len Wiseman to revive the franchise after the success he had with the "Underworld" franchise, the sequel which opened to over $28 million in early '06.

Wiseman isn't the only new blood, as McClane's latest sidekick is a computer hacker played by Justin Long, best known as "The Mac Guy" from the Apple commercials and from comedic roles in movies like last year's Accepted. McClane's teen daughter is played by Mary Elizabeth Winstead, who starred in Final Destination 3 and had roles in Black Christmas and Quentin Tarantino's Death Proof. Actor Timothy Olyphant, who was recently seen in HBO's "Deadwood" and Asian superstar Maggie Q from Mission: Impossible III take on the bad guy roles once held by the likes of Alan Rickman and Jeremy Irons, and there's even a prominent appearance by the inimitable Kevin Smith as another hacker. Even though the movie's all about Bruce's return as McClane, each of them add something to the mix in the movie, especially Long and Winstead who will hopefully bring in a younger audience.

Being that the "Die Hard" movies starred Bruce Willis' most popular character, you'd think they would have done huge business in theatres, but in actuality, the highest grossing of the movies was the original sequel Die Hard 2: Die Harder, which topped out at $117 million. That isn't a lot by today's standards, but granted, we have to take into account inflation and how little movie tickets cost back in 1988 and the early '90s. (It's hard to believe, but the original Die Hard actually had a platform release into just 21 theatres before opening nationwide the following week, something that's never done with blockbusters nowadays.) Live Free or Die Hard is another one of those sequels that arrives a long time after the original like 2003's Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines or last year's Mission: Impossible III. It's often strange to imagine such an old franchise still being popular or having fans because they might seem dated, like "your father's action movie," which won't be helped by the fact that most of Willis' fans are now much older, but one has to assume that many more people have seen all three movies in the last twenty years on television, cable and on DVD and video, which has helped to build up the popularity of Willis' character. In many ways, Live Free or Die Hard is a bit of a throwback to the '90s action movie that we haven't seen that much lately, while reviving the terrorist thriller that's not been seen very much since 9/11. Sure, there are things like Arnold Schwarzenegger's Collateral Damage and Ice Cube's XXX: State of the Union, but neither were particularly successful. A lot has changed in the world since the last movie, but Live Free or Die Hard takes advantage of that, which might be why it doesn't seem as retro as you might think.

For the third weekend in a row, we're getting a sequel that has been toned down from the original movie, taking a PG-13 rating over the original three movies' R-rating, which allowed for more full-on swearing and violence. It's causing a lot of fans of the original movies to balk on seeing it, convinced that it won't be nearly as tough as the previous movies. Then again, times have changed enough that the MPAA is not nearly as tough on violence as they once were, and compared to Hostel: Part II, the violence in Live Free or Die Hard, which isn't tame by any means, was still able to get a PG-13 rating, and the only thing that's been reduced is the use of the "F" word with McClane's trademark expression used but masked with a gunshot. That PG-13 will help bring in the teens that normally would have to sneak in, and it's arriving after three weeks of disappointing sequels that probably won't appeal to teen males as much as this movie will.

At one point, Live Free or Die Hard was going to be released on the 4th of July, which makes sense due to the title and the film's 4th of July setting, but Fox flinched at taking on DreamWorks' Transformers head-to-head. Knowing that they have a huge wall coming their way when that potential blockbuster opens on Monday night, they wisely moved Live Free or Die Hard two days earlier to open on Wednesday. It's likely to do a lot of business in those first two days as fans of the franchise rush out to see it, which will probably take away from the opening weekend, as will the addition of competition for older/younger audiences from Michael Moore and Pixar's latest movies, which open Friday. Still, one can expect a great opening day and strong first Friday for McClane's latest with a strong chance of making close to $70 million in its first five days.

Why I Should See It: Bruce Willis is back as his most popular character in a sequel that's just as much an action-packed thrill ride as the previous three movies.
Why Not: Yeah, "Yippee Ki Yay (gunshot)" just doesn't have that same ring to it.
Projections: $24 to 28 million in its first two days and another $38 to 41 million over the weekend, winding up with around $125 million total.
COMPARISONS

Ratatouille (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)
Starring (the voices of) Patton Oswalt, Ian Holm, Lou Romano, Brian Dennehy, Peter Sohn, Peter O'Toole, Brad Garrett, Janeane Garofalo, Will Arnett, Julius Callahan, James Remar, John Ratzenberger, Teddy Newton, Tony Fucile, Jake Steinfeld, Brad Bird, Laurent Spelvogel
Written and directed by Brad Bird (The Incredibles, The Iron Giant)
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Adventure
Rated G
Tagline: "A comedy with great taste."
Plot Summary: Remy (voiced by Patton Oswalt) is a country rat who has acquired a taste for great food, so when his family is split up, he winds up in Paris at a fancy French restaurant where he teams with the garbage boy Linguini (Lou Romano) to help him make his way up the ranks in the kitchen despite the machinations of the slimy Chef Skinner (Ian Holm).
Of Note: Pixar's 8th feature animated film and Brad Bird's second for the company is getting stellar reviews

Mini-Review: Pixar hits another home run with a surprisingly simple premise filled with lots of memorable characters that's set more in the real world than any of their other recent movies, and yet, you can easily accept the possibility of there being a talking gourmet rat who's able to control the garbage boy like a puppet by yanking on his hair. It's a clever story that offers a number of funny moments and then even more VERY funny moments with a number of clever twists added to the story as things go along. (Seeing a kitchen full of rats cooking is a high point after watching Linguini being controlled by Remy the Rat runs out of steam.) The diminutive tyrant Chef Skinner (voiced by Ian Holm) comes close to being one of the most memorable Disney baddies ever as he tries to expose Linguini's secret, that is until Peter O'Toole shows up to steal the movie as snobbish food critic Anton Ego. The rest of the cast also do a great job. Patton Oswalt and Lou Romano are a lot of fun as Remy and Linguini, but their best scenes are the ones opposite Janeane Garofalo as a tough woman chef who makes Gordon Ramsay look meek. Maybe it's the chronic foodie in me that helped make "Ratatouille" my favorite Pixar film since "Monsters Inc." but it's clearly every bit as good as some of the studio's best offerings in terms of animation, storytelling and humor. Pixar has packed so much fun and entertainment into their latest that you'll probably want to see it again as soon as it's over. Rating: 9/10

Analysis: It's been thirteen years since Pixar Animation Studios unveiled their first feature-length computer animated movie Toy Story and in that time, they've produced eight hugely popular and successful CG animated films, really being at the forefront of what can be done in the medium. The pinnacle of their success was their fifth movie Finding Nemo which opened over the summer of 2003 and grossed $339 million, making it the highest-grossing animated movie until Shrek 2 opened the following year. Its follow-up The Incredibles brought filmmaker Brad Bird into the fold from his much-loved theatrical disappointment The Iron Giant, and its superhero storyline helped it to become Pixar's highest opening movie with $70.47 million before earning a respectable $261 million. Last year's Cars, the first movie in years directed by John Lasseter, opened softer over the summer, but still made over $244 million.

So far, Pixar has made movies about toys (makes sense), bugs (not bad), monsters and superheroes (cool!), fish (interesting) and lastly, talking cars. All fine and good but the main characters in their latest is… um... rats and French cooks, not exactly things that might get kids or parents excited, and that hard to pronounce play-on-word title might also throw the kids off, not just because they can't pronounce it but also because there's a good chance they have no idea what it is. DreamWorks helped claymation studio Aardman make their move to full-on CG with last year's Flushed Away, which dealt with rodents in the British sewer system and that didn't fare particularly well, so the similarities between that and Ratatouille's subject matter is somewhat worrying. Still, the Pixar and Disney brand means a lot to families and parents, which often will make the biggest difference in Ratatouille ending the downwards trend in the 3D animated field while continuing Pixar's success since being bought by Disney last year.

Voice cast rarely matters that much when it comes to animated movies, something that Pixar has proven time and time again by casting less-than-likely stars in their post-Toy Story movies. Ratatouille's main character Remy is voiced by little-known comedian Patton Oswalt, who appeared on the CBS sitcom "The King of Queens" for many years, as well as being a regular on shows like Comedy Central's "Reno 911" and "Crank Yankers." His cohort Linguini is voiced by Pixar regular Lou Romano and his love interest is voiced by Janene Garafolo, and the cast is filled with impressive roles voiced by last year's Oscar nominee Peter O'Toole as a food critic and Ian Holm as the cranky head chef at the restaurant where Remy holes up.

The cooking aspect of the movie is something that theoretically could be played up to intrigue an audience of "foodies" that's been nurtured by the success of the Food Network and Bravo's "Top Chef," but it doesn't seem like Disney is doing much to take advantage of that by advertising on those shows, instead sticking with their normal outlets for family audiences. Because of this, awareness may be a bit lower than Cars but so far, the early reviews are significantly better, something that can help entice parents and others to the movie despite the questionable premise of cooking rats.

Ratatouille probably won't have as much appeal to guys as Brad Bird's The Incredibles, but the humor is fairly universal and wisely, Disney has sneak previewed Ratatouille to help get word-of-mouth around, something they haven't done too much with Pixar's other movies, knowing that they already have a built-in audience. Being released later in the summer season than both Finding Nemo and Cars will also help the movie's opening weekend, because schools are out, allowing the movie to theoretically do a lot more business on Friday and Sunday than it might otherwise.

While Pixar's latest won't be hurt much by DreamWorks' Transformers when it opens on Monday, it might lose some of its audience when Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix opens on July 11. Still, arguably being one of the funniest movies of the summer, it should definitely get a lot of return business, as it goes into July and August.

Why I Should See It: Could be one of Pixar's funniest animated movies and it's certainly their most inventive premise.
Why Not: Ewwwwwwww... there are rats in the kitchen putting things into my soup!
Projections: $61 to 64 million opening weekend and $250 million total.
COMPARISONS

SiCKO (Lionsgate/The Weinstein Company)
Starring Michael Moore
Written and directed by Michael Moore (Fahrenheit 9/11, Bowling for Columbine, Roger and Me)
Genre: Documentary
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "This might hurt a little."
Plot Summary: Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore examines health care in our country through stories of those who have had problems with their HMOs and how other countries provide free national health care to its citizens.
Of Note: Lock up your dogmas! Michael Moore is back, taking on another controversial topic.

Mini-Review: Moore's latest subject matter is actually one that he explored a few times on his show "The Awful Truth," but never in quite as much detail or scope as he does here, and it's a return to the quality of filmmaking he displayed in "Bowling for Columbine." There's a lot of tears to be shed for the moving stories of those who suffered from trusting their HMOs, either having to pay steep premiums for their illnesses or having to fight for potentially live-saving operations that they never receive before their untimely deaths. Sure, some might accuse Moore of being an ambulance chaser by trying to use personal tragedies in order to prove his point, but Moore is still as capable as ever at keeping things light and humorous while exploring this very serious subject matter. Some of the best moments follow Moore as he travels to Canada, England and France to examine their systems of health care and while it's sometimes obvious that he's leaving out information, it still gets the message across, that the privatization of the health care system in our country makes it harder for those with little money to get proper treatment. Moore's in top form when doing things like taking a group of 9/11 rescue workers down to Guantanamo Bay to try to get the type of free health care being offered to the terrorists responsible for the terror attack, but surprisingly, he stays off camera for a good portion of the movie, instead using the Owen Morris technique of getting info from his subjects, something that makes it harder to think that he's made this movie to make himself look better. At times, you do wish that Moore would have found more representatives of the HMO's or government officials to speak up and contest his allegations, but ultimately, this is a much better doc than "Fahrenheit 9/11," far more focused and less about personal political proclivities than the greater good of mankind, particularly in our country. If you chose to remain in this country after the 2004 election, then Moore's latest might get you mad enough to want to leave, especially if you've ever suffered through its inadequate health care system. Rating: 9/10

Analysis: Three years after setting new box office records for a documentary with Fahrenheit 9/11, Michael Moore is back dealing with a subject matter that one would expect more people would be able to get behind, that being our country's problematic health care system. It's something that he's explored before on his television show "The Awful Truth" and while it's likely to be a topic that would be less polarizing to Americans, it might also be less interesting than his indictment of President Bush that stirred up such controversy while America was just a year into the war he was condemning.

Moore is clearly the pioneer of the big box office documentary, having paved the way for filmmakers like Morgan Spurlock (Super Size Me) and Davis Guggenheim (An Inconvenient Truth) to have their films seen by the widest possible audiences, but more than ever, he's one of those filmmakers who you either love or hate. People were loving him for his stirring 2002 documentary Bowling for Columbine, for which Moore won an Oscar, but when he accepted it, he used his speech to rant about the President and the war, which was so fresh at the time that his opinion didn't go over very well. He decided to expand upon his unpopular speech in his next movie, and it was a huge hit, since everyone wanted to know more. Obviously, his fans/foes tend to be divided among party lines with liberals respecting Moore and right wing conservatives hating him, and it's led to some interesting thoughts on his new movie from various parties like New York Post film critic Kyle Smith, who was the first out of the gate to trash the movie after it garnered rave reviews from the Cannes Film Festival.

While Fahrenheit 9/11's phenomenal success began a wave of interest in docs such as the ones mentioned above, that interest has slowed down now because there are so many docs being made and released. That said, Moore's return will be met with a lot of interest from those who remembered his claims of the current administration wrongly going to war in Iraq, something that's been proven to be true since the 2004 election, despite it not going Moore's way. If there's any filmmaker who can revive interest in docs, it's likely to be Moore, because he's proven that he knows how to make facts and information entertaining to a mass audience.

As usual, the conspiracies and controversy that seem to follow Moore are in full effect, this time with an investigation by the U.S. Treasury Department into Moore's trip down to Cuba with 9/11 rescue workers included in the movie. Due to the problems he's caused for the administration, Moore is worried that the government he tried to take down might try to seize the film or keep it from being released. Moore also thinks that someone on the right (as opposed to the left) side of things was responsible for his entire movie being uploaded onto the internet in the second major case of film piracy this month, following a similar incident with Eli Roth's Hostel: Part II which presumably hurt the film at the box office. In both cases, they were clean master prints that had to come from an insider. While Moore has a younger audience of internet-savvy fans who might see it online, he also appeals to an older audience that wouldn't usually download a movie or watch it on YouTube, so it's not likely to hurt his movie as much as it did Roth's horror film. Even so, Lionsgate and the Weinstein scrambled to get the movie released at the last minute into a single theatre in New York City one week earlier than planned (which is why it wasn't included in last week's column) as well as getting sneak previews in hopes that people start talking and word-of-mouth helps the movie on its first weekend in wide release.

At this point, we don't have an exact number of how many theatres SiCKO will be opening in this weekend, because it's ranged from a moderate limited release of 250 theatres to a similar number of theatres as Fahrenheit 9/11. (UPDATE: it's official, the movie is getting 441 theatres on Friday, so not quite wide, being half as many theatres as Fahrenheit 9/11.) While that movie had so much momentum and controversy that it was able to open huge (#1 opening of $26 million in just over 800 theatres) and ultimately made a lot of money, it's doubtful that SiCKO will replicate that success due to its subject matter. SiCKO grossed $70,000 in its single theatre this past weekend with very little advance notice of its early opening, and sold out all 43 of its sneak previews with word of tickets being scalped for as much as $40. That's pretty impressive even compared to the amount Fahrenheit 9/11 made in its two day exclusive release in New York and L.A., and it should effectively drive up word-of-mouth for the movie's actual opening this weekend even if we shouldn't expect a repeat performance as Fahrenheit 9/11.

Why I Should See It: Moore tackles a really important subject with his usual flair and humor.
Why Not: If you lean to the right, you'll already be against Moore and this movie.
Projections: $4 to 6 million this weekend and roughly $25 million total
COMPARISONS

Evening (Focus Features)
Starring Claire Danes, Toni Collette, Vanessa Redgrave, Patrick Wilson, Hugh Dancy, Natasha Richardson, Mamie Gummer, Eileen Atkins, Meryl Streep, Glenn Close
Directed by Lajos Koltai (Fateless); Written by Susan Minot (the original novel, Stealing Beauty), Michael Cunningham (The Hours, A Home at the End of the World)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Her greatest secret was her greatest gift."
Plot Summary: As she lays on her deathbed, Ann Grant (Vanessa Redgrave) reflects back on an incident from her distant past that happened during her best friend's wedding weekend at the Newport beach house, while her two daughters (Toni Colette, Natasha Richardson) deal with their own conflicts in present day.
Of Note: Hungarian filmmaker Lajos Kotai and author Michael Cunningham adapt Susan Minot's 1999 novel with an all-star mostly female cast
Review (Coming Soon!)

Analysis: Just about every weekend seems to have one oddball, and in this case, it's this ensemble drama based on Susan Minot's 1999 book, which has a cast so amazing that the posters and commercials merely lists them in hopes that their names alone will be an emblem of the film's quality.

Unfortunately, only one member of the cast can really be considered a box office draw and that's Meryl Streep, who is returning exactly one year after her best month last June, in which she first starred in Robert Altman's A Prairie Home Companion and then The Devil Wears Prada, the latter garnering her yet another Oscar nomination. Her last serious drama like this was 2003's The Hours, which ironically enough, was also written by Michael Cunningham, and it ultimately wound up making over $40 million after garnering Oscar nominations for Streep's co-stars. Her previous foray into serious drama was 1999's Music of the Heart, which opened far wider than Evening and wound up with less than $15 million. That's all fine and good except that Streep doesn't even appear in the movie until an hour and a half into it so anyone going to see the movie based on her name will be disappointed.

The core of the film centers around the character played in two different time periods by Claire Danes and Vanessa Redgrave, and though each has gained accolades for their acting, neither is exactly a box office magnet. Danes last appeared in the holiday comedy The Family Stone in the same year as she starred in Steve Martin's Shopgirl, two movies that would mainly appeal to women with the former making six times as much as the latter. (It's doubtful that fans of Danes' work in Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines will have much interest in this.) Vanessa Redgrave had a small role in Peter O'Toole's Venus after starring opposite Natasha Richardson in the Merchant Ivory period drama The White Countess. In this movie, Richardson plays one of Redgrave's daughterS, along with the versatile Toni Colette, who starred in a bunch of smaller movies last year. While all three women offer a pedigree of quality acting, they're not exactly actresses who'll get women lining up for tickets. Then again, the movie's a showcase for a lot of fine male talent like Hugh Dancy, who was last seen in the dog Blood and Chocolate, and Patrick Wilson, who had roles in movies like The Alamo and The Phantom of the Opera, but who got a lot of critical attention for his role in Todd Field's Little Children, another serious drama which never even went wide despite its Oscar nominations, winding up with just over $5 million.

This cast is pulled together by Hungarian director Lajos Koltai, who has provided his cinematographer's eye for the likes of Istvan Szabo before his directorial debut, the Holocaust film Fateless, was offered by Hungary as consideration for a foreign language Oscar. Evening is his first English language film as director, and it's an uncompromising chick flick in the vein of Now and Then, Fried Green Tomatoes or the recent Lindsay Lohan-Jane Fonda bomb Georgia Rule. The movie will almost exclusively be of interest to older women and more than likely the ones who've already read Susan Minot's novel, and it will be hard to find much of an audience among younger women since it's such a heavy dialogue-driven movie. It's doubtful you'll find a guy under 50 in the audience.

Of course, Focus is really playing up the connection to Michael Cunningham's The Hours, which was similarly told in different time periods, but they're also opening the movie far wider than it probably should be, because it's the type of movie that's usually platformed later in the year in hope of awards and Oscar consideration. While there will likely be a number of critics who rave about the movie as the best thing since last week's A Mighty Heart (which barely made $4 million), this has even less going for it, and frankly, I'll be amazed if it gets into the Top 10.

Why I Should See It: You want to see some of the world's greatest actresses on screen together and separate.
Why Not: Couldn't they have picked a better story to tell than this one?
Projections: $2 to 3 million opening weekend and $7 to 8 million total
COMPARISONS

Next week, Transformers, more than meets the eye, Transformers, Michael Bay's latest blockbuster not particularly in disguise! And Robin Williams gets religious in License to Wed. (Let's hope that Mandy Moore transforms into something else in that movie.)