Sony Animation Studios puts penguins on surf boards for their second animated feature film Surf's Up, featuring the voice of the smokin' hot Shia LaBeouf, with hopes of it doing more business in the summer than their last animated featured Open Season did last Fall. With Dreamworks' Shrek the Third dropping fast, there's room for a new family comedy to open strong in the market place, so it should be a strong second.

Eli Roth returns to Eastern Europe for his splatterfest sequel Hostel: Part II, which is a bit of an X-factor this weekend, as it's either going to far exceed expectations, taking away some of the audience that might see Ocean's 13 or more likely, it will end up in fourth (maybe even third) place with a respectable but unremarkable opening similar to other recent horror sequels. Either way, look for Ocean's Thirteen to do the most business on Friday, followed by Hostel: Part II and then things should level off over the weekend, as Surf's Up makes up the difference with family audiences.

Last year saw an equally eclectic mix of three new movies with Disney/Pixar's Cars being the definitive victor with a $60 million opening weekend, a bit lower than Pixar's other recent releases. Having opened on Tuesday 6/6/06 with an astounding $12.6 million (setting a new record for the day that was bested by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest a month later), Fox's remake of The Omen settled down on the weekend, pulling in $16 million, placing it fourth behind The Break-Up and X-Men: The Last Stand. Just a few short months before his death, Robert Altman assembled an all-star cast including Meryl Streep, Lily Tomlin and Lindsay Lohan for his movie version of Garrison Keillor's popular radio concert show A Prairie Home Companion, and it grossed a respectable $4.5 million in just 760 theatres for seventh place. The Top 10 grossed $144 million and with three strong new movies, that number is likely to be exceeded.

This Week's Predictions

1. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) - $42.2 million N/A
2. Surf's Up (Sony) - $24.5 million N/A
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) - $21.4 million -52%
4. Hostel: Part II (Lionsgate) - $20.2 million N/A
5. Knocked Up (Universal) - $19.1 million -38%
6. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $14.5 million -48%
7. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $5.7 million -43%
8. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.1 million -45%
9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $1.4 million -30%
10. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $0.9 million -35%

Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.)
Starring George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Andy Garcia, Don Cheadle, Bernie Mac, Ellen Barkin, Al Pacino, Casey Affleck, Scott Caan, Eddie Jemison, Shaobo Qin, Carl Reiner, Elliot Gould
Directed by Steven Soderbergh (Ocean's Eleven, Ocean's Twelve, Erin Brockovich, Traffic, The Good German, Solaris); Written by Brian Koppelman and David Levien (Rounders, Runaway Jury, Knockaround Guys)
Genre: Crime, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "What are the odds of getting even? 13 to 1"
Plot Summary: When wealthy real estate tycoon Willie Bank (Al Pacino) ruins their friend and benefactor Rueben (Elliot Gould), Danny Ocean (George Clooney), Rusty (Brad Pitt), Linus (Matt Damon) and the gang reunite to get revenge by pulling a job to rob Banks' new hotel/casino.
Of Note: Everyone except Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones is back for the third installment in the all-star heist comedy, directed once again by Steven Soderbergh.
REVIEW

Analysis: The summer of 2007 has already seen three big threequels, joined by a fourth which use a similar formula of reuniting the director and cast that's proven successful in the past, in hopes that the fans built-up by the franchise will show up for a third go-round. This time, it's Steven Soderbergh, George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon, all reuniting for their third caper comedy Ocean's Thirteen, and it may have a slightly tougher time, because as we've seen, if you go back to the well too many times, the fans will turn on you, and this summer has already been responsible for a number of disappointing sequels. Fortunately, they realize there were issues with the previous sequel, Ocean's Twelve, and have tried to return to what made the first movie so much fun by returning to Vegas for another plot which has them taking down a casino, this time out of revenge.

The original Ocean's 11 was a remake of a little-known Rat Pack film, and it opened in December 2001, the same year that Steven Soderbergh won an Oscar for the drug drama Traffic--he was also nominated for Erin Brockovich, further raising his awareness among movielovers. It was considered a slam dunk, pairing a number of strong box office stars in a crime caper comedy that did decently in its pre-holiday opening. For two weeks, it held the title for a #1 December opening until The Lord of the Rings franchise took that away, but it also stuck around for months, earning $183 million total. Even before then, Soderbergh had already directed George Clooney in 1998's Out of Sight with Jennifer Lopez, but the success of Ocean's 11 would cement a five-year collaboration between the duo as they made movies together both as director/actor and as co-producers. In December 2004, the cast of the hit remake reunited for a sequel, Ocean's Twelve, which opened slightly higher than the original but it wasn't received nearly as well for a number of reasons and wound up with just $125 million. Their 2002 remake of the Russian sci-fi flick Solaris wasn't met nearly as well as the Ocean movie, and their most recent collaboration, The Good German, was vying for Oscar nominations but was systematically snubbed and the movie never even got the planned wide release, flatlining at $1.3 million in its theatrical release. That movie followed Soderbergh's experimental Bubble, which used non-actors and opened theatrically at the same time as its cable and DVD release, and it didn't fare much better.

Fortunately, the duo have Brad Pitt and Matt Damon to fall back on, two popular box office stars who have plenty of draw on their own, Pitt with movies like Wolfgang Peterson's Troy and the action-comedy Mr. & Mrs. Smith with significant other Angelina Jolie, and Damon with a successful action franchise in which he plays Jason Bourne. Damon followed an early Oscar nomination for Good Will Hunting with a number of so-so dramas and comedies, but he finally found success in 2002 with The Bourne Identity, a franchise that has mirrored the Ocean's movies in by mirroring the release of the Ocean sequels. Later this summer, Damon will return for the third installment and wisely, he has a much larger part in Ocean's 13 than he had in the first movie, as well as appearing for his fourth time with Clooney, the two of them having co-starred in Traffic writer Steven Gaghan's 2006 political thriller Syriana.

As with the previous Ocean movies, one can't overlook the potential draw of actors like Don Cheadle, who has an Oscar nomination under his belt since the last Ocean movie, and comedian Bernie Mac, both of whom will appeal to a much-neglected black audience. The rest of the gang is made up of Eddie Jemmison, who is winning over audiences with his romantic turn in the indie comedy Waitress, and the squabbling brothers played by Scott Caan and Casey Affleck, who arguably steal the third movie. Other returning favorites include Elliot Gould as Danny Ocean's benefactor Reuben, as well as their former arch-nemesis Terry Benedict, played by Andy Garcia. Garcia might get overshadowed as bad guy by his former Godfather-in-law Al Pacino, taking on the role of Willie Bank, a sleazy real estate mogul who practically steals Reuben's hotel-casino from under him, hence the reason for the gang wanting to get revenge for the sake of their friend. Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones are nowhere to be found this time, leaving the singular female role to Ellen Barkin, who last teamed with Al Pacino in their 1989 thriller Sea of Love and who plays his right-hand woman in the latest Danny Ocean movie.

Many of the reviews from the film's premiere at the Cannes Film Festival have hailed the movie for being a return to form from the first movie, so younger moviegoers who may have been disappointed by the sequel might be more interested. Instinct would tell us that disappointment like that might keep some or all away from the threequel, but the thought of Clooney and Pitt-both whom have proven they can bring in $40 million of audience in one weekend-returning to the schtick that has found them their widest audience will cancel that out, especially with the amount of time since the last movie. Opening in summer will also help since more of the 18 to 25 year old audience of the movie will be able to see it on Friday and Sunday then they might have with a December release. Expect a decent-sized opening despite losing some of the younger male business to Hostel: Part II and some of the older women and 20-to-30 something date crowd to Judd Apatow's hit comedy Knocked Up, both of which could keep it from doing much more than $40 million.

Why I Should See It: The entire cast is back doing more of their comedy crime schtick that has won this franchise so many fans.
Why Not: This is one franchise that really didn't need to be revisited a third time, especially with nothing new being added to the equation.
Projections: $41 to 43 million opening weekend; $115 million total.
COMPARISONS

Surf's Up (Sony)
Starring (voices of) Shia LaBeouf, Jeff Bridges, Zooey Deschanel, James Woods, Jane Krakowski, Jon Heder, Mario Cantone, Brian Benben, Michael McKean
Directed by Ash Brannon (character artist and designer on Toy Story and Toy Story 2), Chris Buck (supervising animator Chicken Little, Home on the Range, Pocahontas); Written by Lisa Addario, Joe Syracuse
Genre: Animated, Family, Comedy
Rated PG
Tagline: "A Major Ocean Picture" (I bet Warner Bros. is kicking themselves for not grabbing that one.)
Plot Summary: Cody Maverick (voiced by Shia Labeouf) is an outcast among the penguins of his Antarctic home until his surfing talents are discovered by an agent who takes him to Penguin World Surfing Championship on Pengu Island, where he must face the champion Tank Evans (voiced by Diedrich Bader) in order to win the heart of the lifeguard Lani (Zooey Descanel). While there, he also discovers that his long-missing idol Big Z (Jeff Bridges) is still alive, though no longer surfing.
Of Note: Sony Animation Studios' second animated feature film combines two popular elements: penguins and surfing.

Analysis: The second animated feature of the summer is also the second computer-generated family comedy from Sony Animation Studios, whose first movie Open Season did a decent (but not spectacular compared to other computer-animated films) amount of business last September with the vocal pairing of Martin Lawrence and Ashton Kutcher. A few months prior, Sony released the 3D animated Monster House, which didn't fare quite as well despite opening in the middle of summer.

The key thing going for their latest venture Surf's Up is that it features penguins, who in recent years have proven to be the most popular of talking animals among kids, first with the penguins in DreamWorks' Madagascar, which opened over Memorial Day 2005, followed by the Oscar-winning documentary March of the Penguins that same summer. Last November, George Miller, director of Babe and Mad Max, created a computer-animated musical featuring the creatures, which opened with $40 million on its way to nearly $200 million over the holidays and an Oscar for animated feature to boot. So yeah, an animated family comedy starring penguins is a bit of a no-brainer, while putting them on surfboards might appeal more to older teen males than other recent animated movies. There's plenty of movies for that audience this weekend, so Surf's Up is more likely to be a movie seen by parents with younger kids with little else to see besides Shrek the Third, which has been out for nearly a month.

Voice actors on animated movies rarely make much of a difference, but both Shia LaBeouf from the recent hit Disturbia and Jon Heder from Napoleon Dynamite have built up a decent-sized fanbase among teens, which might also help bringing in older kids than other recent animated films. The sense of humor is more along the lines of the Pixar movies by being done in a documentary style in hopes that adults and parents will be a bit more open to the movie, particularly by casting Jeff Bridges AKA "The Dude" as a former surfing champion. Co-directors Ash Brannon and Chris Buck come from out of the Disney stable, the former having experience at Pixar, while the latter having worked on Disney's 3D attempt Chicken Little.

Unfortunately, Sony just doesn't have the clout with parents and animation lovers as Disney and DreamWorks, which is why Surf's Up is an important movie for them. They may be hoping that releasing the movie in the summer with so many sequels will allow them to score a larger amount of money than their first computer animated feature, Open Season. Unfortunately for them, the computer animated genre has lost a bit of its steam in the last year due to the sheer number being released, although the early summer opening should help Surf's Up fare better than Sony's last two animated movies Open Season and Monster House, it isn't opening in IMAX 3-D like Open Season, which might make it more challenging, especially considering the lower price of tickets for kids. While it will have to contend with a bit of remaining bit of business for DreamWorks' Shrek the Third, that won't pose much of a challenge with the way it's droppings, so Surf's Up will more than likely be vying for a strong second place against Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, though it only really has two weeks to find any kind of audience before Disney and Pixar Animation release their latest family comedy Ratatouille, which will make it hard for Surf's Up to have very much legs.

Why I Should See It: It's penguins on surfboards! What's not to like?
Why Not: Maybe it's too soon for another animated penguin movie.
Projections: $23 to 25 million opening weekend; $80 to 90 million total.
COMPARISONS

Hostel: Part II (Lionsgate)
Starring Lauren German, Bijou Phillips, Roger Bart, Richard Bugl, Vera Jordanova, Heather Mattarazzo, Stanislav Ianevski, Milan Knazko
Written and directed by Eli Roth (Hostel, Cabin Fever)
Genre: Horror, Thriller, Torture
Rated R
Plot Summary: Three college co-eds are lured into a Slovakian hostel by a handsome man only to discover that it's a trap by a secret group who uses the girls as torture experiments for their sadistic clientele.
Of Note: Eli Roth returns to Slovakia for a gory sequel to his 2006 horror hit.

Analysis: Eli Roth, the horror wunderkind, who broke out last year with his second movie Hostel, presented by no less than Quentin Tarantino, is back with a sequel to what many critics and journalists dubbed the pinnacle of "torture porn." His follow-up to the festival favorite Cabin Fever, which opened in 2003 before the recent horror boom, kicked off 2006 with an impressive $19.5 million opening in less than 2,200 theatres, but it didn't have particularly long-lasting legs, winding up with $47 million total from theatres. Considering it was made for just $4 million, that was a strong enough return to warrant a sequel, even as it made even more money and found more of an audience on DVD.

As we've seen, casting rarely matters with horror movies, though Jay Hernandez, the star of the first movie, seems to have taken a backseat in favor of a group of hot women including Heather Mattarazzo and Bijou Phillips. As a teenager, Mattarazzo starred in Todd Solontz's Welcome to the Dollhouse and later starred in The Princess Diaries movies, so being a bound and naked victim in Hostel: Part II is somewhat of a departure for her. Bijou Phillips is the model/actress/singer daughter of John Phillips of the seminal '60s folk group The Mamas and the Papas, who hasn't been in that many big movies but whose last venture into horror was the bomb Venom. Roth has also reunited with Jordan Ladd, who made such an impression on the fans of his first horror movie Cabin Fever and who recently appeared with him in Quentin Tarantino's Death Proof. It also stars Roger Bart, best known for his gay roles (no, really, he plays a gay man!) in The Producers musical both on-stage and in the movie, and in the Nicole Kidman remake of Bewitched. He also had a recurring role on ABC's "Desperate Housewives" for a while, though neither of those parts will prepare his fans for his role as an American who goes to Slovakia to pay for the privilege of torturing and killing women.

Lionsgate is opening the movie in somewhere between 2,300 and 2,500 theatres, which is not that much more than Hostel opened in early 2006, but the movie hasn't been promoted nearly as much as the original movie with Roth deliberately avoiding the usual junket/interviews. That might not be such a wise idea, since Hostel was somewhat lucky in its opening weekend in that it didn't have nearly as much competition (not even Dr. Uwe Boll's Bloodrayne could hold it back!), but the sequel is opening at the height of summer against the much stronger draw of Ocean's Thirteen and few recent horror sequels have fared better than the originals. Fortunately, two of the exceptions are the movies in the Saw franchise and Rob Zombie's The Devil's Reject, both Lionsgate releases, so they probably know what they're doing.

The big thing that might hurt the movie is film piracy. Although Lionsgate has been very careful about not screening the movie for critics to avoid spoiler-filled reviews--and yet, there have been "word of mouth" screenings for websites that already have posted their reviews from them--somehow a decent-quality version of the movie was leaked, and the movie has shown up for sale on bootleg DVD tables and for free on the internet, something that could significantly hurt the opening if people have already seen it. There's something to be said about seeing this kind of movie in theatres with a big audience and many diehard horror fans will choose to see it that way, especially with the number of rave reviews have already been popping up in the last week. The sequel probably won't get nearly as much or any female business due to the premise involving women getting tortured though, so Hostel: Part II will likely open only slightly higher than the first movie compared to the jump in box office between the first and second Saw movies. With the DVD release of Hostel having found Roth many teen male fans, not all of them will be able to get into see it due to its hard R-rating, so they may wind up buying tickets to one of the other movies to be able to sneak into it, something that will hurt it and help others.

Why I Should See It: Eli Roth is a sick f*ck and the sequel to his gore-filled masterpiece is likely to be even sicker.
Why Not: If violence against women makes you queasy--as it should--then the female twist on the premise might put you off.
Projections: $19 to 22 million opening; $50 to 52 million total.
COMPARISONS

Next week, can we have the next summer sequel, please? And it's Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, while Julia Robert's niece Emma takes on the role of Nancy Drew and the most appropriately titled video game movie ever, DOA: Dead or Alive.