The Battle Cry! 5/25/07 (ComingSoon.net Blog)

The Battle Cry! 5/25/07

This is it. The last weekend of what's likely to be the most frontloaded May in box office history, as the third of the 2007's Terrible Threesome of Threequels is finally released. In some ways, it almost feels like a let-down that the sequel to the previous box office record holder is opening so early in the season and over Memorial Day, because there'll be even more expectations than there would have been if it opened later in the season on a non-holiday weekend. So far, we've already had one movie make $151 million in three days and another make $122 million, so if Pirates doesn't make $180 million or more in four days, is it just going to seem like a big yawner, since it may be the last time we see these kinds of numbers for a long time? (Maybe not until Indiana Jones?)

The big threesome was all the talk as we went into the summer, even as early as January, and sure, $151 million opening is nothing to cough at, neither is $122 million and neither is whatever Pirates makes this weekend, but having three big movies like those open so early in the summer season makes you wonder whether moviegoers will get burnt-out too early, especially since two of these blockbusters haven't really delivered satisfying follow-ups to popular favorites. One of them has already been losing business on a daily business, and I certainly don't expect Shrek the Third to hold up as well as its predecessor.

It's not like this is an uncommon thing to release so many big movies early in the season, but there was something about these three, all follow-ups to mega-blockbusters, that made this summer so different and special, and sure enough, this will wind up being one of the biggest summers ever going by the low-end of where these three movies might wind up. (Three $300 million movies over the course of the summer is huge, and if even one crosses $400 million, then we'd already be well ahead of last year.)

Still, with all of these high profile movies, there's tons of smaller films that are likely to get killed because there's no way to compete. Last weekend, the excellent British horror-comedy Severance was mostly ignored, but the Irish indie Once and Adrienne Shelly's Waitress were able to find an audience, but that was against a kids movie rather than something that might attract the same audiences. It seems like a constant struggle for movies like these to get attention and audiences--let alone the screens--away from the big blockbusters, and it might be harder for them to follow previous Fox Searchlight summer sleepers like Zach Braff's Garden State and Napoleon Dynamite, which stuck to their guns and continued to build audiences over the course of the summer.

It's probably something that's not worth getting too bummed about, but it's a real problem when summer kicks off with so many big movies and so few of them are satisfying eager moviegoers who haven't had much to get excited about over the spring. That burnout factor can only start setting in as we get into June, and it has the potential to hurt some of the movies that might have found a decent audience otherwise. With that in mind, we'll probably see a few things in the next few weeks fail to find audiences as so many moviegoers have shot their load already and might want to take a few weeks off to recharge. Movies like William Friedkin's Bug, the Shue family project Gracie and others don't seem like they stand a chance. Even with more than a few prominent sequels (four in three weeks) one can expect that June will be seen as a lull, at least in comparison to May.

With that in mind, I'm curious to know what readers feel will or won't deliver of the sequels coming out in June (Ocean's 13, Hostel Part II, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, Evan Almighty), not just in terms of box office but in terms of expectations from the previous movies. After all, two of those sequels are following weaker previous movies and one of them doesn't even have the previous movie's star. Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments.

Posted by Edward Douglas on May 21, 2007 4:05 AM | Permalink

Comments (9)

I dont think Evan has a chance of breaking any records.But I think any of the June may be a bit of a let down.

Posted by justintime | May 21, 2007 5:24 PM

I ment to say any of Junes movies could be a bit of a let down

Posted by justintime | May 21, 2007 5:27 PM

well...I doubt June will feel like a let down. I don't think anyone is really expecting any of those sequels to do Spidey or Pirates numbers. I think all of the above will do fairly well actually. Just becuase we had 3 super movies come out in the same month doesn't give us the right to expect a 150 million opening weekend before considering a movie a hit. Remember: If a movie MAKES 100 million or more it's considered a blockbuster.
Evan Almighty is going to be the biggest of the month though, thanks to its star, semi-funny trailer, and its PG rating.

Posted by fartherhill | May 22, 2007 8:39 AM

I totally agree, farther, that none of those will make SPidey/PIrates numbers but I wonder if having so many big movies in May (and such disappointing ones) will burn people out and make them hesitate about shelling out money for the June movies. I'm not sure if Evan will do better than Fantastic Four. I think a lot of people are excited about how they're doing the Silver Surfer, while Evan looks like it's going to be tamed down for the kiddies. But I guess we'll see how it goes.

That reminds me that I'm going to have to update my summer box office preview soon.

Posted by EDouglas | May 22, 2007 11:21 PM

Is it wrong to hope that Pirates doesn't do as well as expected? I guess its just me being bitter from last summer but honestly, watching Dead Man's Chest was NOT fun. Maybe it was because I saw it three weeks after it came out and the fanfare died out or maybe because I got a bit discouraged when my friend fell asleep for a good 15 minutes but I just didn't enjoy the movie. The only reason I'm seeing the third one in the first place is simply because I hate cliffhangers (even more than the second Pirates movie) so its a given I have to see it.

As for how I think the sequels will fare? I don't think Evan Almighty is gonna do all that well, at least in comparison to Silver Surfer because Silver Surfer looks like the better movie. I'm actually looking forward most to Hostel Part II despite my aversion to blood and gore. Here's hoping that sequel does well.

Lastly, I never say any of the Ocean movies (not my kind of movie) so I have no idea how its gonna do. Considering the second movie was a disappointment though, I sense a Matrix Revolutions type curse falling on Ocean's 13 out of all the threequels this summer.

Posted by DeeDee | May 22, 2007 11:36 PM

DeeDee: Hate to say this, but I have a feeling you won't dig the third chapter either then... but I still think it's worth seeing, just to see how things wrap-up... but you can probably wait three weeks and avoid the crowds :)

I hope Hostel does well, too. I really like Eli and it really seems that his movie is the underdog that weekend...but if you have an aversion to blood, I'm not sure how you'll get through it. I hear it is very very sick, maybe even more than the last one. I'm hoping I get a chance to see it before opening day (Lionsgate is trying to avoid early spoilers/negative reviews from critics who hate "torture porn") but I'm out of town that week until Thursday.

I think you might be right about Ocean's 13 unfortunately, I think the movie may be better than the last one (how can it be worse?) but the last one might have pissed off too many fans. Then again, it has a lot of stars and that might be enough to make many people choose it over other things (plus its PG-13 and is probably of more interest to women). I'm seeing it on Tuesday regardless so I'll have some idea how it is.

Thanks for the comments!

Posted by EDouglas | May 23, 2007 6:51 AM

Honestly, the only sequel coming out in June that my anticipation is really at a all time high is Silver Surfer. From just the trailers and pictures the film looks leaps and bounds better then the 1st installment.

But as for the other sequels. Oceans 13 looks good but more of the same, plus one can't forget that it will have to complete with one Knocked Up coming out a week before. There is a lot of anticipation for it being the next film from 40 yr old virgin guys. Also 13 has to complete with Surfs Up. With Shrek not delivering like expected many people are probably hoping this will be better.

As for Evan Almighty I am actually hoping it does well just because I love Steve Carrel(Office rules) But I have a lot of fear for that one, I think it will breach $100million but I don't think from the production budget rumors that it will turn much of a profit(ala superman returns)

But one sequel that everyone has kind of looked over is one that I know will not do as well as I want it to, but no matter what will be a winner in my book because I love the first 3. Live Free or Die Hard. Say what you like but John McClain is the man.

Posted by Corn-Man | May 23, 2007 9:08 AM

Posted by Corn-Man | May 23, 2007 9:18 AM

I'm not sure Ocean's 13 and Surf's Up have much audience in common and you may be surprised but I've seen tracking and Ocean's 13 is blowing away all of the movies opening June 1 and 8. I thought it wouldn't do as well as the previous movie, but apparently, putting Brad Pitt, Matt Damon and George Clooney in a movie together still does amount to box office draw.

Posted by EDouglas | May 24, 2007 7:10 AM


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The Battle Cry! 5/25/07

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