Before we get to this week's predictions, I just want to take a second to thank everyone for their comments and feedback on the new direction of the Weekend Warrior. I know it might seem like a pretty major change, but as always, the hopes are to evolve and try to continue to provide information in the best way to possible without alienating long-time readers. One of the things I'm going to do is include the predictions on the actual blog post, though if you want to get theatre counts and drop-offs, etc, you'll have to go the chart.
This week's predictions can be found here or you can check after the bump. Of course, the big news this week is the release of DreamWorks' Shrek the Third, which will be looking to set another record for an animated feature.
The third weekend of May and the one preceding Memorial Day weekend has always been a key summer release date having seen the release of the Star Wars prequels, The Matrix Reloaded and the previous installations of this week's only wide opener, Shrek the Third. Opening exactly three years after Shrek 2 opened with $108 million, the third Shrek has a fairly wide-open market with only one other family film of note. In theory, the movie should open higher since it won't have the same Wednesday opening that may have taken away some business from the previous movie's weekend, though this time, there might not be such a mad rush to see it opening weekend since it seems like a lot more of the same. Still, expect it to make more than $100 million as it caters to a wide arrange of audiences from the youngest kids to teens to 20-somethings and older parents, making it one of the more viable options for the whole family. Being the only new opener in wide release, you can read a full analysis below the Top 10 predictions.
Spider-Man 3 is likely to take another hit while holding onto a strong second place with nothing else making more than $6 million, pushing the amount needed to enter the Top 10 under the $1 million mark, which could make this weekend a great opportunity for some of the stronger films in limited release to try to get a little Top 10 action. (I'm talking to you Waitress or Away From Her!)
Last year, Ron Howard and Tom Hanks teamed for the highly-anticipated adaptation of Dan Brown's best-selling The Da Vinci Code, which grossed $77 million its opening weekend, while DreamWorks' latest 3D animated offering Over the Hedge came in second with $38 million. That's $115 million combined, which shows that there's certainly room for that kind of money to be made this weekend, though the #3 movie only made $11.3 million compared to the $25 to 30 million that will be made by Spider-Man 3 in its third weekend. Also last year, WWE Films' horror film See No Evil starring Kane opened with just $4.6 million in 1,257 theatres in sixth place. The Top 10 grossed $152 million an amount which will only be topped if Shrek the Third opens better than expected.
1. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $107.8 million N/A
2. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $29.5 million -49%
3. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $5.5 million -44%
4. Georgia Rule (Universa) - $3.9 million -42%
5. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $3.2 million -32%
6. Fracture (New Line) - $1.85 million -38%
7. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $1.5 million -55%
8. The Invisible (Touchstone) - $1.3 million -45%
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $1 million -42%
10. Meet the Robinsons (Disney) - $.9 million -50%
Shrek the Third (DreamWorks/Paramount)
Starring (the voices of) Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy, Cameron Diaz, Antonio Banderas, Rupert Everett, Justin Timberlake, Julie Andrews, John Cleese, Eric Idle, Cheri Oteri, Amy Poehler, Maya Rudolph, Amy Sedaris, John Krasinski, Ian McShane
Directed by Chris Miller (one of the writers on the previous Shrek movies), Raman Hui (supervising animator on previous films); Written by Peter S. Seaman (How the Grinch Stole Christmas, Last Holiday), Jeffrey Price
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Fantasy, Family
Rated PG
Tagline: "Who's ready for Thirds?"
Plot Summary: Shrek's father King Harold (John Cleese) falls ill forcing Shrek to fill in as the king of Far, Far Away, but unfit for the position, Shrek instead sends Donkey (voiced by Eddie Murphy) and Puss 'n' Boots (Antonio Banderas) to find the king's long-lost son Artie (voiced by Justin Timberlake) to step in. However, Prince Charming (Rupert Everett) has other ideas and it's up to a pregnant Fiona and her ladies in waiting to fend off his attempt at a coup.
Of Note: The third highest grossing film domestically of all time gets itself a threequel. Kaching!
Analysis: Seven or eight years ago, Jeffrey Katzenberg, head of DreamWorks' animation division had a genius moment when he greenlit the company's first computer-animated movie based on William Steig's book "Shrek" about a green troll, signing Mike Myers to provide Shrek's Scottish brogue, joined by Eddie Murphy as Donkey and Cameron Diaz voicing Princess Fiona. Even with three of the hottest stars of the time, little could any of them have known that the franchise would become the company's most consistent moneymaker in theatres and out. At the time, the idea was to merely create a 3D computer-animated movie that could compete in the marketplace with the likes of Pixar Animation's mammoth hits Toy Story and Toy Story 2, as well as poke fun at the Disney mythos that Katzenberg used to be an active part of, both plans which proved successful.
Shrek was released on May 18, 2001, where it made an astounding $42.3 million, the largest amount made on a single weekend by a non-Disney animated feature. (The only other movie that weekend was Jennifer Lopez's thriller Angel Eyes.) The following week was Memorial Day and despite going against Michael Bay's high-profile Pearl Harbor, it made exactly the same amount as opening weekend in just three days, putting it at $100 million in ten days. Obviously, a new day was rising for animation and when it left theatres after Thanksgiving, it had grossed $267 million. A few months later, Shrek beat Pixar's Monster's Inc. for the first ever animated feature Oscar and the two animation companies have been competing head-to-head for the animated crown ever since.
Three years later, Shrek 2 opened on Wednesday May 19 with $11.8 million and after making $21 million in two days, it raised that to $28.4 million on Friday and then made another $79 million over Saturday and Sunday. At the time, that $108 million opening was enough to make Shrek 2 the largest opening animated movie of all time, and its eventual gross of $441 million put it head of Disney's The Lion King and Pixar's Finding Nemo as the highest grossing animated films of all time. In fact, after three years, Shrek 2 is still the third highest grossing film domestically EVER after Titanic and Star Wars. Take that, Spider-Man!
Shrek the Third is very much like Spider-Man 3 was a few weeks back in that it's mostly a no-brainer. The three main voice actors who've made the first two movies so popular are back as are John Cleese, Julie Andrews and Antonio Banderas, and there's a few new characters and twists, including Justin Timberlake voicing the rightful king to Far Far Away, Artie AKA King Arthur, and Eric Idle as Merlin. It also adds four funny women to the mix as Fiona's ladies in waiting are played by Cheri Oteri as Sleeping Beauty, Amy Poehler as Snow White, Maya Rudolph as Rapunzel, and Amy Sedaris as Cinderella, four well-known fairy tale characters who will add to the Shrek mythology of poking fun at classic fairy tales (and Disney characters). The threequel also adds kids to the equation as Fiona and Shrek will be having a baby--a publication was nice enough to spoil the twist on this--which adds another level of humor that will appeal to the Moms bringing their kids to see this over the weekend. What's missing this time is director Andrew Adamson who has moved onto Disney's blockbuster Narnia series as he currently works on that sequel Prince Caspian.
Times certainly have changed even since the overwhelming success of Shrek 2 with many studios getting into the animation act, trying to replicate the success of Shrek and its sequel, so computer animation just isn't as special as it once was. The same that year that Shrek 2 had its record opening, DreamWorks released Shark Tale, another animated comedy filled with impressive voice talent (Will Smith, Jack Black and Angelina Jolie for three), which opened with $47 million (in October, no less!), and the following Memorial Day, DreamWorks' Madagascar made a similar amount over the three-day holiday before going on to gross $193 million over the summer of '05. Everything's going along fine until 2006 when every Tom, Dick and Sony is releasing computer animated movies on a weekly basis and suddenly, DreamWorks' niche isn't quite as special. Last year, they opened Over the Hedge in the same weekend, but it wound up making less than $40 million against The Da Vinci Code and less than Shark Tale in total. DreamWorks' third collaboration with Britain's Aardman Studios (and their first CG animated film), Flushed Away, grossed just $65 million later that year.
That said, Shrek the Third has a lot of things working in its favor, so much so that an opening below $100 million would be a massive crushing disappointment for Katzenberg and DreamWorks. First of all, it's a known commodity, a widely-recognized character the world over who has been used to sell millions of toys and products. The sequel, besides making significantly more money than its predecessor, was generally liked, placing only slightly behind the original movie among critics (88% on Rottentomatoes compared to 89% for the first movie) and IMDB users (7.7/10 compared to 8.0/10). The threequel is opening at a time when the only real PG family movie, Disney's Meet the Robinsons, is already on its way out of the Top 10 after over a month, while the record-setting Spider-Man 3 is already showing signs of maintaining the business it got its record-setting opening weekend. Running less than 90 minutes also will work in Shrek the Third's favor since theatres will be able to have more showings per screen per day than Spider-Man 3 or the upcoming epic Pirates threequel. Most theatres will already be ready to devote many screens to the movie now that Spider-Man 3 may have run its course. DreamWorks has always been able to get an astounding number of theatres for their animated films, over 4,000 for the last few except Flushed Away, and this should once again be the case as Shrek the Third vies to retake its previous record for widest release.
Even though this is the first Shrek movie to be distributed by Paramount, the promotion and marketing are up there with the previous movies with Shrek, Donkey and Fiona being everywhere promoting various products and themselves. When networks aren't showing commercials for the movie, they're showing commercials for other things featuring the characters from the movie. This might cause a bit of over-saturation before the release of the movie, since people may already be getting skeptical merely because it's the second sequel. That certainly should be the case with critics who probably will be harsher on their criticisms-not that kids will care about reviews. The trailer seems to deliver on the laughs which could prove long-term success even if it doesn't set any records this weekend. Of course, it doesn't hurt that DreamWorks already has a fourth movie and a Puss 'n' Boots feature in the works, which means that they already know this movie is going to make a lot of bank.
With all of that in mind, we can expect Shrek the Third to make more on its first Friday than the previous movie, probably somewhere north of $30 million, as it doesn't have a Wednesday opening diminishing its first Friday, but it might not do that much more over the Saturday and Sunday than the original, which would put it somewhere south of $110 million. Shrek 2 made 3.8 times its Friday over the three-day weekend, but Shrek the Third will probably come closer to the performance of last year's Ice Age: The Meltdown, which only made 3.1 times its $21 million Friday opening over the weekend.
Why I Should See It: It looks like more of the same from the ogre who's brought DreamWorks a lot of green.
Why Not: It looks like more of the same from the ogre who's brought DreamWorks a lot of green. Projections: $105 to 110 million opening weekend and $360 million total.
COMPARISONS
