After making $14 million in Thursday night pre-opening screenings, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End has grossed an estimated $43 million for its first Friday, not a huge number by any account--last year's X-Men: The Last Stand made more than that on its first Friday including midnight screenings--but it's not the end of the world either. (And I greatly apologize for using the most obvious pun.) Combined with Thursday, it has grossed $57 million in roughly 30 hours, slightly more than what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest made on its first Friday including midnight screenings. With an extended four-day holiday weekend, the threequel should perform similarly well in its opening weekend.
What's odd is that the $17 million for Thursday was reported separately by Disney yesterday afternoon and at first, that amount was added into the Friday estimates, though it was later separated. There are a couple different scenarios in play here, the first one being that the Thursday pre-screenings took away from the amount At World's End would have normally made on Friday, but adding the two numbers together puts it into the range of Spider-Man 3 and Dead Man's Chest, and the two days may have been combined to avoid the confusion of where to place the screenings that took place after midnight on Thursday.
The key to Pirates 3's opening weekend will be today. If it follows the tradition of X-Men: The Last Stand and Dead Man's Chest and goes down 20% or more from Friday (including the previews), then it's in trouble, but if it brings in more than $45 million on Saturday, it could point to a four-and-a-half day gross in the $165 to $170 million range. If it makes less than $40 million on Saturday, it could wind up with closer to $150 million by Monday. Either way, it's guaranteed to set a new Memorial Day weekend record but nowhere near the $180 to 200 million opening weekend that some projected for the threequel to the blockbuster franchise.
Oddly, my original instincts for At World's End was that it would make slightly less than $160 million over the four-day weekend due to the Thursday opening, but I went slightly higher and then upped that amount after seeing the theatre count and based on other sources.
William Friedkin's Bug made an estimated $1.1 million on Friday, which is pointing to a four-day weekend in the range of $3 to 4 million.
As far as the other returning movies, both Shrek the Third and Spider-Man 3 took significant drops on Friday, Shrek bringing in $14.4 million in its second Friday (a 63% drop from its opening) and Spider-Man bringing in $3.8 million (a 52% drop). The latter should still be able to cross the $300 million mark by Monday, while Shrek should wind up in the range of $220 million after ten days.
