ComingSoon.net Blog

« The Chosen One 5/11: The Hip Hop Project | Main | 5/11 Update and 5/18 Preview »

Box Office Analysis May 11 - 13, 2007

This week, we have four movies in wide release with the Universal chick flick Georgia Rule starring Jane Fonda and Lindsay Lohan opening in the most theatres, as well as Fox Atomic's 28 Weeks Later, Larry the Cable Guy's Delta Farce and the Weinstein Company dark comedy The Ex, starring Zach Braff and Jason Bateman. You can read the Weekend Warrior's predictions here and can read more in-depth analysis about this week's movies in wide release below.

28weekslater.jpg28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic)
Starring Robert Carlyle, Rose Byrne, Jeremy Renner, Harold Perrineau, Catherine McCormack, Imogen Poots, Idris Elba, Mackintosh Muggleton
Directed by Juan Carlos Fresnadillo (Intacto); Written by Juan Carlos Fresnadillo (Intacto), Lopez-Lavigne, Rowan Joffe (Last Resort), Jesus Olmo (co-writer of Fresnadillo's short "Esposados")
Genre: Horror, Sci-Fi, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "It All Begins Again."
Plot Summary: 28 weeks after the Rage virus has been eradicated in England by U.S. military forces, the country is reinfected by one of the island's returning inhabitants, restarting the epidemic and mayhem once again.
Of Note: Fox goes back to the well with a sequel to Danny Boyle's futuristic horror film "28 Days Later" without any of the original creators or stars.

Analysis: Nearly four years ago, British director Danny Boyle had one of his biggest hits in the U.S. and England with his fifth movie 28 Days Later, a post-apocalyptic thriller that took its cues from Richard Matheson's novel "I Am Legend" and the zombie movies of George Romero. After becoming a huge hit in the UK and having successful runs at various film festivals, the movie was released in June of 2003 where it made more than $10 million its opening weekend in just 1,260 theatres. Unlike most horror films, it wound up sticking around for a number of weeks, eventually grossing $45 million in the U.S. and $82 million worldwide, a stunning feat for a movie that starred then unknown Cillian Murphy and Naomie Harris. Having been made for £5 million (around $9.8 million), the type of money a sequel might make was too much for the producers to resist, but original screenwriter Alex Garland and Danny Boyle had already moved onto their next films. Actor Cillian Murphy, who had shot to instant fame with his role in the movie, was also doing other things, including playing the bad guys in Batman Begins and Wes Craven's Red Eye and starring in Ken Loach's historic drama The Wind That Shakes the Barley.

Instead, the producers brought on Spanish director Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, who had made the thriller Intacto and an all-new cast of British and American actors, including Robert Carlyle, who ironically enough, got his big break in Danny Boyle's Scottish drug epic Trainspotting in 1996 and after starring in the Oscar-nominated The Full Monty a year later, he reunited with Boyle for his adaptation of The Beach. Since then, Carlyle has appeared in movies like Ravenous and the action flop Formula 51 with Samuel Jackson, but hasn't really done much else of note otherwise. Likewise, British actress Catherine McCormack makes her return to film after a few years playing Carlyle's wife, while the sequel also stars Australian actress Rose Byrne, who appears with Cillian Murphy in Boyle's latest sci-fi flick Sunshine (seeing a trend here?), after getting her big break in Wolfgang Peterson's 2004 epic Troy, then starring opposite Josh Hartnett in the little seen remake Wicker Park later that summer. The most interesting bit of casting might be that of Harold Perrineau, best known from his role as Michael on the first two seasons of "Lost" but who also starred in The Matrix sequels and was the narrator for the five seasons of HBO's "Oz." The cast is rounded out with up and coming actress Idris Elba from HBO's "The Wire" who already this year has starred in Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls and the psychological thriller The Reaping, as well as Jeremy Renner.

If this doesn't seem like a cast of actors you might rush out to see, it's probably not that big a deal, since as we've said before: "Stars rarely matter when it comes to horror movies," although some fans of the first movie might be annoyed that Cillian Murphy hasn't returned for the sequel. Even though Murphy wasn't known at the time, the original 28 Days Later did get a wider and larger audience than normal horror movies, since it was made in an intelligent and artistic way by a respected filmmaker, who's absence might also be a hindrance to the sequel replicating the success of the original movie. Then again, those who liked the premise of the Rage virus and the fanatical way people were killed might be just as satisfied with the direction of the sequel and give it a chance. With that in mind, the audience for 28 Weeks Later should be much of the same 20 to 30 year old audience, both male and female, although it might also interest some of the older teens who've flocked to R-rated horror movies in recent years. What's odd is that 28 Days Later came out before the star of the current horror craze and it might have run it's course going by the failure of Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino's horror anthology Grindhouse to find an audience, especially since Rodriguez's Planet Terror has a similar premise as 28 Weeks Later. With that in mind, one has to wonder whether the R-rated horror craze and the zombie genre may have already peaked, which might keep the sequel from doing as well as the original movie.

Another big difference is that the movie is being marketed and distributed by the Fox genre imprint Fox Atomic rather than Fox Searchlight, who released the original movie, which is similar to the case of the recent horror sequel The Hills Have Eyes II, which has barely been able to make half the original movie, again with a different cast and director than the original movie. At least 28 Days Later has found a decent audience in theatres, on cable and DVD, enough so that the sequel should be able to have a decent opening weekend, even if it's not as likely to have long-term success with stronger summer releases in the weeks to come.

Why Not: Could this sequel be any good with neither Danny Boyle nor Cillian Murphy on board?
Why I Should See It: Surely, the premise of raging virus-infected humans is still entertaining even without Cillian Murphy, right?
Projections: $14 to 16 million opening weekend; $38 to 40 million total.
COMPARISONS
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)


deltafarce.jpgDelta Farce (Lionsgate)
Starring Larry the Cable Guy, Bill Engvall, DJ Qualls, Marisol Nichols, Danny Trejo, Keith David
Directed by C. B. Harding (Blue Collar Comedy Tour: The Movie, Blue Collar Comedy Tour Rides Again); Written by Bear Aderhold and Tom Sullivan (debut)
Genre: Comedy, Action, Adventure
Rated PG-13
Taglines: "A funny thing happened on the way to Iraq." (Wow, have we come to this?) and "G.I. Joke" (Gotta love it when the reviews write themselves.)
Plot Summary: While on a relaxing weekend of drinking and target pratice, Larry (the Cable Guy) and his two friends Bill (Bill Engvall) and Everett (DJ Qualls) are unwittingly drafted when they're mistaken by Army reservists. Instead of ending up in Iraq, their jeep is accidentally ejected into Mexico, where they try to save a local village from the warlord Carlos Santana (Danny Trejo).
Of Note: Larry the Cable Guy is back in another comedy that brings back memories of Pauly Shore's In the Army Now.

Analysis: On March 24, 2006, blue collar comedian Larry the Cable Guy AKA Dan Whitney appeared in his first starring role in the feature film Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector. It was almost unanimously snubbed by everyone in the Blue States who didn't understand the appeal of the comedian who came out of the Jeff Foxworthy camp, having been part of a number of successful "Blue Collar Comedy Tours." Those tours had been captured on film and released on video and Comedy Central, building up Larry's audience of fans, who helped the movie make nearly $7 million its opening weekend, not bad for a movie that cost around $3 million. Distributor Lionsgate knew they had found a possible niche cash cow in Larry the Cable Guy, signing him up for another comedy, which put him into a military scenario with the great title of Delta Farce. It also brought on board Larry's fellow "Blue Collar" veteran Bill Engvall, putting them into all sorts of funny situations due to their incompetence as soldiers.

Larry has had a great career that's continually attained new plateaus, one of them being his role as the tow-truck Mater in the 2006 Pixar animated comedy Cars, which has helped introduce Larry to a new audience of kids and parents. One would expect that Larry's overwhelming success as a stand-up comic would lead him to hilarious well-written comedies, but unfortunately, he seems to be heading more in the direction of Pauly Shore or Carrot Top, making high concept comedies that no one but his fans will want to watch. Delta Farce certainly has similarities to Shore's In the Army Now with a nod to the 1986 comedy The Three Amigos, which was only moderately successful when teaming popular comics Steve Martin, Chevy Chase and Martin Short.

The 2.4/10 rating from IMDb Users makes it apparent that even Larry's fans might not have been crazy about his first movie, which means they're likely to wait until this one comes out on DVD. It doesn't help that many of Larry's fans in the South and other Red States are likely to be very patriotic and supportive of the troops and Delta Farce's attempt at humor at their expense might turn some of them off. With that in mind, one can expect that it won't quite replicate the success of Health Inspector, although it's likely to find a healthy audience once it's released on DVD.

Why I Should See It: Surely, there must be some Larry the Cable Guy fans reading this.. maybe one or two?
Why Not: Because there's absolutely nothing funny about war or the men fighting it.
Projections: $5 to 6 million opening and $12 million total.
COMPARISONS


theex.jpgThe Ex (The Weinstein Company)
Starring Zach Braff, Amanda Peet, Jason Bateman, Charles Grodin, Mia Farrow, Donal Logue, Amy Poehler, Amy Adams
Directed by Jesse Peretz (First Love, Last Rites, The Chateau) Written by David Guion, Michael Handelman
Genre: Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Nothing burns like an old flame."
Plot Summary: Tom Reilly (Zach Braff) and his pregnant wife Sofia (Amanda Peet) move to Ohio where he begins working for his father-in-law (Charles Grodin) but winds up in a rivalry with the parapalegic Chip Sanders (Jason Bateman), an ex-boyfriend of his wife who wants to try to win her back.
Of Note: Two veterans of TV's recent cutting edge sitcoms face-off in this dark comedy with an impressive ensemble cast.

Analysis: The movie that might have the hardest time finding an audience this weekend is this dark high concept comedy that assembles an impressive cast, headlined by three actors who have done a lot of humor in their collective careers, as well as a number of screen veterans and a couple up 'n' coming secret weapons.

At the center of this high concept comedy is a battle of wills between two top comic actors from popular television series from recent years, Zach Braff of "Scrubs" and Jason Bateman of "Arrested Development." Caught in the middle is Amanda Peet, who has starred in her share of comedy movies, as well as been a key player in NBC's critically-acclaimed show "Studio 60." This is really only Braff's third major film (not counting his lead voice role for Disney's Chicken Little and an early appearance in Woody Allen's Manhattan Murder Mystery), and though his directorial debut Garden State did decently after being picked up at the Sundance Film Festival, his starring role in the 2006 dramedy The Last Kiss didn't help that fare particularly well. Amanda Peet has a far richer film resume for sure, though her biggest movies teamed her with stronger stars like Bruce Willis (The Whole Nine Yards and its sequel) and Jack Nicholson (Something's Gotta Give) with a few forays into other genres like Identity and Syriana. Peet hasn't been able to carry movies on her own, as seen by the mega-flop Whipped, which came out the same year as The Whole Nine Yards.

Jason Bateman comes from the world of television, going back to his days on "Little House on the Prairie" and "It's Your Move" but he made an impressive comeback in 2003 when he starred in the irreverent FOX comedy show "Arrested Development" as Michael Bluth. Since his return, Bateman has had key comedic roles in movies like Dodgeball and Joe Carnahan's Smokin' Aces, though he really doesn't have any sort of track record at the box office in a role as big as this one. To add to the comedy factor, The Ex's impressive cast also includes appearances by Amy Poehler and Fred Armisen from "Saturday Night Live" and is rounded out by film legends Charles Grodin and Mia Farrow as Amanda Peet's parents, as well as small roles for Amy Adams, who was nominated for an Oscar a few years back and recently appeared in Will Ferrell's hit comedy Talladega Nights, and Donal Logue. The film is helmed by Jesse Peretz, former bass player of the seminal alt-rock band The Lemonheads, who went on to a successful career as a music video director before doing a couple films, including The Chateau, which starred Paul Rudd and Romany Malco of the 2005 hit comedy The 40-Year-Old Virgin and who have small cameos in The Ex.

Despite the impressive cast, The Ex is a dark comedy, and a rather mean one, and it's a genre that hasn't done particularly well at the box office as seen by flops like Envy (Ben Stiller vs. Jack Black), Death to Smoochy (Robin Williams vs. Ed Norton) and others. It doesn't help that the movie was going to be released last December under the unfortunate title "Fast Track" but was then mysteriously delayed until this weekend where it's likely to get lost in the shuffle of bigger and more high profile movies. The Weinstein Company and MGM have not exactly been making waves with their distribution or marketing, and The Ex is being released into less than 1,000 theatres where it will have to compete for screens with Spider-Man 3 and other more high-profile movies.

Why I Should See It: Zach Braff and Jason Bateman are very funny on their own, but add a cast that includes Amy Poehler and Fred Armisen from "Saturday Night Live" and you have a promising comedy.
Why Not: Jokes about paraplegics are almost as bad and tasteless as jokes about our soldiers at war.
Projections: $2 to 3 million opening weekend and less than $8 million total.
COMPARISONS


georgiarule.jpgGeorgia Rule (Universal)
Starring Jane Fonda, Lindsay Lohan, Felicity Huffman, Dermot Mulroney, Cary Elwes, Garrett Hedlund
Directed by Garry Marshall (The Princess Diaries, The Princess Diaries 2, Raising Helen, Beaches, Pretty Woman, Runaway Bride, Frankie and Johnny); Written by Mark Andrus (Life as a House, Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood, As Good As It Gets)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated R
Tagline: "In this family, attitude doesn't skip a generation."
Plot Summary: After getting into a drunken car crash, a rebellious and out-of-control teen named Rachel (Lindsay Lohan) is sent by her equally dysfunctional mother (Felicity Huffman) to spend time with her grandmother Georgia (Jane Fonda) in hopes that her strict lifestyle involving standards and rules will set Rachel on the straight and narrow path.
Of Note: Three generations of American actress come together for Gary Marshall's latest chick flick.

Analysis: For the past two years, the second weekend in May has seen the release of an unrepentant chick flick, hopeful of getting some of the female audience that might not be as interested in the summer action blockbusters, as well as allowing women something their husbands and kids can take them to on Mother's Day. Two years ago, there was Monster-in-Law, which pit Jennifer Lopez against Jane Fonda, a successful pairing that brought in $23 million its opening weekend. Last year, Lindsay Lohan starred in the romantic comedy Just My Luck, which didn't do as well as it mainly targetted her normal teen fans, who decided to skip it.

This time, Lohan has been teamed with two highly-respected actress, both of whom have won many awards and accolades for their acting talent, Felicity Huffman and Jane Fonda. Georgia Rule continues Lohan's attempt to take on more adult roles following her appearance in Robert Altman's swan song Prairie Home Companion last year, but the movie has a dark cloud hanging over it due to Lohan's tabloid exploits, when it was reported that her partying ways had her neglecting her duties on set, prompting an angry letter from Morgan Creek CEO James G. Robinson that was leaked to the internet. That started a stream of scandalous stories in the tabloids about Lohan's drinking, drug use and panty-less exploits which might not have helped her status among her younger fans, as Lohan checked into rehab, and her character in Georgia Rule might hit a bit too close to home to be comfortable.

Screen legend Jane Fonda made a comeback of sorts when she was paired with Jennifer Lopez for 2005's Monster-in-Law, a solid box office success that was mostly credited to Fonda, who had such a highly respected career in the '60s, '70s and '80s, but was mostly absent from film since 1990's Stanley & Iris. Fonda has won two of the seven Oscars for which she's been nominated and has always been a strong and outspoken political activist, something which has been to her detriment at times. Even with these popular actresses of different generations, the movie's secret weapon may be Felicity Huffman, star of the hit ABC drama "Desperate Housewives" who won a Golden Globe and was nominated for an Oscar for her role in the cross-dressing road comedy TransAmerica last year. It also stars Dermot Mulroney, who has appeared in so many chick flicks like The Wedding Date, The Family Stone and Must Love Dogs that it's a foregone conclusion that women might actually like him a bit.

It probably won't hurt that the movie combines one of the most respected film directors in terms of romantic comedies with a writer who has written his share of chick flicks, as Gary Marshall helms from a script by Marc Andrus. After spearheading classic '70s shows like "Happy Days, "Laverne and Shirley" and "Mork and Mindy," Marshall has had a prominent film career full of hits including Julia Roberts' breakout Pretty Woman and its follow-up Runaway Bride as well as both hit Princess Diaries movies for Disney. The same year he directed the sequel of that popular favorite among teen girls, Marshall also directed Kate Hudson in Raising Helen, which didn't fare nearly as well during the early summer. Andrus' resume includes the adaptation of The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood and As Good as It Gets, both which were popular among the women 30 and over that might be interested in this movie.

Georgia Rule might wind up being a good barometer to see if Lindsay Lohan's fans are still on board after her year of partying, though her younger fans probably won't be able to get in to see the movie due to its unfortunate R-rating. It's kind of odd since you would think that a movie about a rebellious teen finding family and control would be a good movie for teen girls to see, but instead, it will have to rely more on women over 17. It could prove to be another strong mother-daughter type film that we haven't seen very much since early February when Universal's Because I Said So, starring Diane Keaton and Mandy Moore, opened in second place with a respectable $13 million over Super Bowl weekend.

Georgia Rule might have trouble replicating that success and that of Fonda's previous romantic comedy, partially due to that R-rating and the odious presence of Lohan--does anyone want to see her playing a foul-mouthed drunken teen or can they just read the tabloid for that? Then again, its primary audience might not have as much interest in other movies playing it theatres, and it should do a significant amount of business on Sunday as husbands and older kids look for something to take Mom to see on Mother's Day.

Why Not: The movie is getting more attention for the on-set troubles created by "fire crotch" Lindsay Lohan more than anything else.
Why I Should See It: If this just starred Lindsay Lohan, one might worry, but Felicity Huffman and Jane Fonda are likely to be bringing their acting A-game to Gary Marshall's latest drama.
Projections: $11 to 13 million opening weekend and roughly $40 million total.
COMPARISONS

Comments (3)

I'm curious to see how (or if) the recent video of Lohan caught snorting cocaine in a bathroom will affect her film, personally. It could certainly be the difference maker on what will be the top opening film of the weekend.

--Jer

I hope 28 weeks later will be good

dirtier: Well, it's not *terrible* but it's no "28 Days Later"...review coming soon.

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Search


About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 8, 2007 10:24 AM.

The previous post in this blog was The Chosen One 5/11: The Hip Hop Project.

The next post in this blog is 5/11 Update and 5/18 Preview.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

COMINGSOON SECTIONS: Main | Features | Movie News | Trailers & Clips | Film Database | Movie Release Dates | Movie Reviews | Top Previews | Production Stills | Awards Central | TV News | DVD News | DVD Release Dates | DVD Reviews | The Weekend Warrior | Box Office Report | Boards | Contact Us | News Feeds | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Copyright Statement | Superhero Hype! | ShockTillyouDrop.com | TheBadandUgly.com

Hosted by NEXCESS.net


© 1998 - 2008 Coming Soon Media, L.P. All rights reserved. © 2004 - 2008 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All rights reserved
Not in any way associated with Crave Entertainment, Inc. or Crave Magazine®

MORE IN THE CRAVE FILM CHANNEL: ONLINE VIDEOS AND CRAZY VIDEOS AT CRAVEONLINE | SUPERHERO HYPE! | SHOCKTILLYOUDROP.COM