In the last 24 hours, both Fandango and MovieTickets.com have sent out press releases reporting that Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End is outpacing both Dead Man's Chest and Spider-Man 3 in terms of ticket sales, although a lot of those sales will be for the Thursday night previews and for Friday, and it might be hard for the movie to hold up that sort of business for the entire four-day weekend. Then again, it has topped Spider-Man 3 for one major record already, that being the widest release ever into 4,362 theatres, so maybe other records will follow. (Click on the link to read the rest of the updated analysis and a preview of next weekend.)
Updated Predictions (4-Day)
1. Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney) - $164.3 million* N/A
2. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $82.3 million -33%
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $18.0 million -38%
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $5.1 million N/A
5. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $3.5 million -36%
6. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $2.5 million -33%
7. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $2.4 million -35%
8. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.1 million +94%
9. Fracture (New Line) - $1.7 million -35%
10. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $.9 million -50%
*Note: This number doesn't include Thursday night previews which could be anywhere from $10 to 15 million.
Reviews for At World's End have been popping up in the last day or two and they're mostly mixed, saying essentially the same thing... that the movie's too long, too dull, too confusing and not as good as the previous movies. And yet, millions of people in the country will be going to see it this weekend based on advance sales. With that in mind, one can expect At World's End to make between $10 and 15 million on Thursday alone, which isn't likely to be rolled into Friday numbers, then it should add another $49 - 50 million in its first full day and maintain that business over the weekend. Look for the movie to wind up with somewhere close to $175 million by Memorial Day Monday.
Meanwhile, William Friedkin's Bug is tracking terribly and is going to have a hard time getting anyone away from Pirates this weekend, which means that it might have a hard time making $5 million over the four-day weekend.
Except for Shrek the Third, which adds 50 theatres this weekend, most of the returning movies are losing a huge amount of theatres and screens including Spider-Man 3, so expect major drops over 30% even when comparing these weekend's 4-day to last weekend's 3-day. Most of this weekend's business will be split up between Pirates and Shrek with scattered and spillover business going to the others.
Next week, Judd Apatow's raunchy R-rated comedy Knocked Up, starring Katherine Heigl and Seth Rogen, will see if a funny premise starring untested leads can transcend the lack of big box office stars, as it takes on Pirates in its 2nd weekend and Shrek the Third in its 3rd. With a similar sense of humor to Apatow's blockbuster hit The 40-Year-Old Virgin (which starred the very hot Steve Carell), it's likely to open somewhere in the high $20 millions, maybe even pushing $30 million.
Kevin Costner, Dane Cook and Demi Moore star in the MGM thriller Mr. Brooks, which should be of interest to those who aren't into comedies, and should wind up somewhere between $10 and 15 million. Also getting a wide release into 1,000 theatres is the Shue family drama Gracie starring newcomer Carly Schroeder, which will probably wind up near the bottom of the Top 10.
